2026-10-19T16:43:19.172Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/19/politics/trump-midterms-red-state-travel
上周末发布的一项新的《华盛顿邮报-ABC新闻》民调包含一个极具启发性的数据。
其他近期民调普遍显示，在至关重要的“通用国会选票”问题上，选民以近10个百分点的优势支持民主党而非共和党。
但当提及总统唐纳德·特朗普时——也就是在“可对特朗普起到制衡作用的民主党掌控的国会”与“可推进其执政议程的共和党掌控的国会”之间做出选择时——这一差距大幅扩大。在《华盛顿邮报-ABC新闻》的民调中，登记选民以19个百分点的差距支持民主党，比例为58%比39%。
从这些数据中不难看出，摇摆地区的共和党人为何不愿与特朗普共同竞选——也不难理解他为何密集前往深红州。
随着总统中期选举竞选行程全面展开，多个模式已逐渐清晰：1）他压倒性地前往2024年大选中以两位数优势支持他的深红州开展竞选活动；2）当他确实前往竞争更激烈的地区时，通常是为了那些处境艰难的共和党候选人——这些候选人似乎需要借助特朗普来提振沮丧的共和党基础选民的投票热情。
这两种模式都存在例外情况，且特朗普的行程安排也在不断调整。但整体趋势大致如此。
副总统JD·万斯曾前往许多与特朗普相同的地点——有时会在总统到访前先前往政治环境更具挑战性的地区。
这与特朗普上月在共和党中期选举大会上宣称的情况相去甚远：当时他表示将前往全美35个最重要的“摇摆州”。据美国国家公共广播电台（NPR）统计，他实际到访的地区还不到三分之一。
第一种模式清晰可见。特朗普利用选举前有限的时间前往俄克拉荷马州、阿拉巴马州、田纳西州和肯塔基州等深红州开展竞选活动，这曾引发诸多质疑。
但不止这些州。自共和党中期选举大会以来，特朗普已到访或计划在本周到访的近20个州，平均以14个百分点的优势支持他。
这份名单中，支持率约为30个百分点的州（即上文提及的四个州）与总统摇摆州（亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州和北卡罗来纳州）数量相当。
包括特朗普2024年唯一输掉的纽约州在内——他近期已到访该州——特朗普总共仅到访或计划到访5个未以两位数优势支持他的州。
与他共同竞选的候选人似乎都需要助力
这并不意味着关键选区的每位共和党人都回避与特朗普共同竞选。
但那些确实与他一同露面的候选人，总体上看起来确实需要支持。那些选情较好、来自摇摆或偏蓝州的共和党人要么不欢迎他，要么在他到访时刻意回避，甚至直接缺席他的集会。
截至目前，特朗普与参议院候选人共同举办集会的真正总统摇摆州仅有佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州。但在这两个州，民调数据和两党的广告支出都显示，共和党席位大概率已失守。
其他已与特朗普共同举办集会或将于未来几天与他同台的共和党参议院候选人，要么来自他以至少16个百分点优势获胜的州（内布拉斯加州参议员皮特·里基茨、南卡罗来纳州参议员达琳·格雷厄姆和堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔），要么来自特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州，但在多家权威民调中处于落后状态（得克萨斯州州检察长肯·帕克斯顿、俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特德和阿拉斯加州参议员丹·沙利文）。
这些州的民调有时处于误差范围内，暂无明确领先者，但共和党人在部分其他民调中确实处于下风。
目前尚无迹象表明特朗普会前往缅因州、明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州等偏蓝州为参议院候选人助选。他本周将前往艾奥瓦州和密歇根州，但目前尚不清楚会有哪些候选人到场。
州长竞选的情况与此类似。
在内华达州州长乔·隆巴多和佐治亚州共和党州长候选人里克·杰克逊都在竞争激烈的焦点选战中与特朗普共同竞选。特朗普本周还将前往佛罗里达州，为众议员拜伦·唐纳兹助选——该州属于深红州。（唐纳兹近期因删除其网站上提及特朗普的内容而登上新闻头条。）
但其他与特朗普共同露面的共和党州长候选人往往处境更艰难，比如阿拉斯加、亚利桑那州和俄亥俄州的候选人。目前也没有迹象表明特朗普会前往缅因州、新罕布什尔州、俄勒冈州和威斯康星州为州长候选人助选。
本月早些时候特朗普前往得克萨斯州为帕克斯顿助选时，选情优于帕克斯顿的得克萨斯州州长格雷格·雅培明显未到场助阵。
缺席现象也已成趋势。有时特朗普到场时，共和党候选人干脆……不出面。
不仅雅培如此，特朗普到访纽约州时，包括处境岌岌可危的众议员迈克·劳勒在内的一众纽约州共和党官员都未露面；上周亚利桑那州的两名关键众议院候选人也缺席了活动；周六肯塔基州的另一名共和党众议院候选人（与唐纳兹一样，删除了其网站上提及特朗普的内容）同样未到场。
万斯上月到访艾奥瓦州时，共和党参议院候选人、众议员阿什利·辛森也未出席——万斯在活动中几乎未提及参议院竞选。
本周的一大疑问是，特朗普周四到访艾奥瓦州、周日到访密歇根州时，会有哪些候选人到场。
在密歇根州，前众议员迈克·罗杰斯比多数顶尖共和党参议院候选人更明确地与特朗普保持距离，近期就在特朗普对加拿大发起的贸易战问题上表达了不同立场。总统的到访地点位于休伦港，紧邻加拿大边境，这可能让罗杰斯陷入尴尬境地。
在艾奥瓦州，辛森也在多个问题上与特朗普保持距离，包括伊朗战争、进口外国牛肉以及最近的进口俄罗斯柴油燃料。如前所述，她还缺席了万斯的活动。
但她所在的州属于更红的选区，她也曾表示欢迎特朗普到访艾奥瓦州——包括9月底特朗普在椭圆形办公室活动中当众邀请她时，她也做出了积极回应。
这可能是其他共和党人面临的两难困境：如果他们不希望特朗普到访，但他还是来了，该怎么办？特朗普明确表示，他不喜欢共和党人对他冷淡，也不接受“他是竞选负担”的说法。
但最新的《华盛顿邮报-ABC新闻》民调数据说明了一切。通过在关键州露面，并将自己及其执政议程作为竞选核心议题，特朗普的所作所为往往对其所在的共和党政党并无益处。
The (very red) pattern of Trump’s 2026 campaign rallies
2026-10-19T16:43:19.172Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/19/politics/trump-midterms-red-state-travel
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll over the weekend featured a telling stat.
Other recent polls have generally shown voters prefer Democrats over Republicans for Congress by close to 10 points on the all-important “generic ballot.”
But when President Donald Trump is invoked — i.e. choosing between a Democratic-controlled Congress that could act as a check on Trump, versus a GOP-controlled Congress that could pass his agenda — that gap balloons. Registered voters preferred the blue side by 19 points, 58%-39%, in the Post-ABC News poll
It’s clear from those numbers why Republicans in swing areas would be reluctant to campaign with Trump — and why he’s hitting such red territory.
With the president’s midterm travels now in full swing, a number of patterns have emerged: 1) He’s campaigning overwhelmingly in red states that voted for him by double digits in 2024, and 2) when he does campaign in more competitive areas, it’s generally for candidates in red states who are struggling — and seem to need to roll the dice on Trump driving up turnout among a dejected GOP base.
There are exceptions to both, and Trump’s travel schedule is evolving. But that’s about the shape of it.
Vice President JD Vance has traveled to many of the same places as Trump — sometimes going to more politically challenging areas before the president does.
It’s certainly a far cry from when Trump said during the Republican midterm convention last month that he would travel to all 35 of the biggest “swings” in the country. NPR calculates he’s been to less than one-third of them.
The first pattern is unmistakable. Trump’s decision to use his limited time before the election to travel to dark-red states like Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky raised plenty of eyebrows
But it’s not just those states. Since the GOP’s midterm convention, the nearly 20 states that Trump has visited or is planning to visit this week voted for him by 14 points, on average.
That list includes as many states that voted for him by about 30 points (the four states named above) as presidential swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina).
Including New York — the lone state Trump lost in 2024 that he’s visited recently — Trump has traveled to or is planning to travel to only five states that didn’t vote for him by double digits.
The candidates who will campaign with him seem to need help
That doesn’t mean that every Republican in key races has avoided campaigning with Trump.
But the ones who have appeared with him generally seem as though they could use a boost. Those in better shape and in swing-to-blue-leaning states haven’t welcomed him or have been scarcer when Trump comes around, including skipping his rallies.
Thus far, the two bona-fide presidential swing states where Trump has rallied with the Senate hopeful are Georgia and North Carolina. But in both cases, the polls and the two parties’ ad spending suggest those seats are likely lost to the GOP.
The other key GOP Senate candidates who have rallied with Trump or will rally with him in the coming days either come from states he won by at least 16 points (Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall), or come from double-digit Trump states but have trailed in more quality polls than they’ve led (Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan).
Polls in those states are sometimes within the margin of error and have no clear leader, but the Republicans have trailed in some of the other polls.
There is no sign yet of Trump campaigning for Senate candidates in blue-leaning states like Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. He travels to Iowa and Michigan this week, but we don’t yet know who will attend.
The story is similar in governor’s races.
Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo and Georgia GOP nominee Rick Jackson have both campaigned with Trump in competitive, marquee races. Trump will also go to Florida this week to stump for Rep. Byron Donalds in a red state. (Donalds recently made headlines for scrubbing his website of Trump mentions.)
But the other gubernatorial candidates to appear with Trump are Republicans who have sometimes looked more like underdogs — in Alaska, Arizona and Ohio. And there is no sign yet of Trump campaigning with hopefuls in Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon and Wisconsin.
And when Trump visited Texas to campaign with Paxton earlier this month, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — who has polled better than Paxton — very notably didn’t appear.
Absences have been a trend too. Sometimes when Trump shows up, the GOP candidates just … don’t.
That was true not only of Abbott, but also a bunch of New York GOP officials including vulnerable Rep. Mike Lawler when Trump visited that state, a pair of key House candidates in Arizona last week, and another GOP House candidate in Kentucky (who, like Donalds, scrubbed his website of Trump mentions) on Saturday.
And when Vance visited Iowa last month, GOP Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson didn’t attend — and Vance barely mentioned the Senate race.
A big question for this week is who shows up when Trump visits Iowa on Thursday and Michigan on Sunday.
In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers has gone further than most top GOP Senate candidates to distance himself from Trump, including recently on Trump’s trade war with Canada. The president’s visit will take place on the Canada border in Port Huron, which could make for some difficult optics for Rogers.
In Iowa, Hinson has also sought distance from Trump on issues including the Iran war, importing foreign beef and, most recently, importing Russian diesel fuel. And as noted, she skipped the Vance event.
But she also comes from a redder state, and she has suggested she’d welcome Trump to Iowa — including when he put her on the spot during an Oval Office event in late September.
That could be a dilemma that awaits other Republicans. What happens if they’d prefer Trump not come, but he does anyway? He’s made clear he doesn’t like Republicans giving him the cold shoulder, nor does he appreciate the narrative that he’s a liability.
But that new Post/ABC News poll number speaks volumes. By showing his face in crucial states and making himself and his agenda the issue, Trump often appears to be doing his party no favors.
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