2026-10-19T09:00:44.757Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
迈阿密——
两年前，航空工人马尤米·卡斯特罗·费尔南德斯曾投票给唐纳德·特朗普。但周五下午，她正在迈阿密一个社区为民主党候选人拉票，该候选人正在挑战现任众议院共和党议员所在的选区。在这个选区，拉丁裔选民对总统的不满可能帮助民主党在下月的中期选举中获胜，并助力该党赢得国会多数席位。
“所有物价都在上涨——汽油、食品、医疗保险，”卡斯特罗·费尔南德斯说，她是古巴裔美国人，政治立场为无党派，正和她所在的工会一起开展拉票活动，该工会已经表态支持民主党候选人。她说，到本月底，许多家庭“连维持生计的钱都不够了”。
“我们需要变革，”她说，“我已经改变了主意。他们也可以改变。”
近年来，拉丁裔选民已成为美国规模最大的摇摆选民群体之一。如果下月的选举结果能印证民调结果——即全美3600万拉丁裔选民正大规模转向支持民主党——那么这些选民将能帮助民主党在特朗普第二任期的最后两年掌控国会。
长期以来，美国大部分地区的拉丁裔选民都倾向于民主党。但在2024年大选中，拉丁裔选民却大幅转向支持特朗普，这让共和党燃起了长期政治重组的希望，认为此举有望重塑美国政治版图，尤其是在人口不断增长的南部地区。
但当初助力特朗普胜选的经济不满情绪，如今正让许多同样的选民对全面掌控联邦政府的共和党产生不满。
本月发布的一项NBC新闻/西班牙裔媒体Telemundo民调显示，拉丁裔选民以24个百分点的优势倾向民主党赢得国会控制权：59%的受访者表示希望民主党在11月的选举中掌控国会，而支持共和党的受访者仅为35%。2024年的出口民调显示，特朗普获得了46%的拉丁裔选票，民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯则获得51%。在此次NBC/Telemundo民调中，仅有27%的拉丁裔选民对特朗普的整体工作表现表示认可，对其处理生活成本问题的认可度更低，仅为20%。
“他们脱离共和党的原因，和两年前脱离民主党的原因如出一辙，”共和党战略家迈克·马德里说，他曾撰文详细阐述自己所谓的“脱党化”现象：大量拉丁裔选民不再忠于任何政党，投票反对他们眼中的“失败政府”。
“两党都没有为工薪阶层提供有吸引力的愿景或注重实效的政策，”马德里说，“我们在许多方面正在见证一种新兴的拉丁裔民粹主义，这种民粹主义反对建制派——也就是说，反对两党建制。”
拉丁裔选民可能再次出现大规模转向的迹象，不仅在南佛罗里达州，在其他地区的民调中也有所体现。从加利福尼亚州中央山谷、亚利桑那州和科罗拉多州的众议院竞选，到佐治亚州参议院席位的角逐——该州拉丁裔人口正快速增长——11月3日的选举中，拉丁裔选民的大幅转向可能影响多个选区的结果。
领导进步主义捐赠者网络“制胜之道”的民主党战略家托里·加维托表示，该组织的研究显示，拉丁裔选民曾在2024年相信特朗普“打破现状”的承诺，并愿意忽视他尖锐的移民言论，因为他们不认为自己属于他口中“坏家伙”的目标群体。
但现在，她说，“他们看不到物价下降，看不到就业机会增加，许多混合身份家庭生活在恐惧之中。”
“我不认为我们正迎来蓝色浪潮，”加维托说，“我认为我们正陷入红色陷阱。”
这一转变正在提升民主党在德克萨斯州的胜算。该州的一场参议院初选最初看似希望渺茫，如今却变得势均力敌。德克萨斯州是今年民主党瞄准的几个传统红州之一，民主党需要净增4个席位才能获得参议院多数席位。
强劲的拉丁裔支持也可能帮助民主党保住几个共和党在去年中期重新划分选区时划定的众议院席位。
这些选区，尤其是里奥格兰德河谷地区的选区，当初的划分是基于特朗普2024年的强劲表现。但如果南德克萨斯州的拉丁裔选民现在转向支持民主党，共和党击败第28选区众议员亨利·奎利亚尔和第34选区众议员文森特·冈萨雷斯的可能性就会化为泡影。而民主党候选人鲍比·普利多——格莱美获奖的特哈诺音乐歌手——则有可能击败共和党现任议员莫妮卡·德拉·克鲁兹，拿下第15选区席位。
“共和党人误将MAGA运动的热度和狂热，当成了深深扎根于拉丁裔社区的情感，因此高估了自己的优势，”加维托说。
在接受CNN采访时，拉丁裔选民指出了多项不满特朗普第二任期头两年的理由：包括汽油和食品价格在内的经济挑战、共和党削减医疗经费、以及特朗普积极推进大规模驱逐行动。
“移民政策现在非常严苛。正是因为突袭和所有这些行动，经济才如此疲软，”伊尔玛·冈萨雷斯说，她是德克萨斯州麦卡伦市一家餐厅的老板，这座里奥格兰德河谷城市分属两个竞争激烈的众议院选区。“很多人根本不敢出门。”
正在德克萨斯州关键参议院选举中挑战共和党总检察长肯·帕克斯顿的民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科曾到访她制作手工玉米饼的店铺。冈萨雷斯说，她的印象是他“真心实意想要帮助我们”。
“我希望他能获胜，做点好事——做得更好，”她说。
与此同时，佛罗里达州拥有多元化的拉丁裔选民群体，包括迈阿密及周边地区传统上持保守立场的古巴裔、2024年大量转向支持特朗普的佛罗里达州中部波多黎各裔，以及迈阿密和奥兰多周边的委内瑞拉裔——其中许多人对特朗普去年终止委内瑞拉公民的临时保护身份感到愤怒。
佛罗里达州原本看起来更难让民主党有所斩获，并不在民主党争取参议院多数席位的路径范围内，尤其是在民主社会主义者安吉·尼克松赢得该州参议员提名、将挑战共和党现任参议员阿什利·穆迪之后。但在11月中期选举的最后冲刺阶段，该州的选情却出人意料地胶着，包括州长选举和多个众议院席位的角逐。
由于该州大部分地区位于东部时区且计票速度较快，如果民主党表现强劲，可能会在选举夜成为全国范围内蓝色浪潮来袭的早期信号。
住在委内瑞拉裔聚居的多拉尔郊区的委内瑞拉裔律师卡丽娜·卡斯蒂略表示，她2024年投票给特朗普，部分原因是她认为特朗普能让移民程序更有序。但在特朗普第二任期近两年后，这位无党派选民说她后悔当初的决定，认为他的政策走得太远了。
她说，特朗普政府关押或驱逐了“很多遵纪守法”的人，包括那些正在等待合法移民程序完成的人。
她还对特朗普试图废除出生公民权，以及他支持委内瑞拉代理总统德尔西·罗德里格斯——被推翻的总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的前副总统——表示担忧。
“很多共和党人盲目支持他，我不明白为什么，”卡斯蒂略说，“你不能盲目。你需要看清现状。”
民主党在全州范围内的强劲表现，可能帮助该党拿下共和党现任议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉查的席位。萨拉查曾是西班牙语新闻主播，代表位于迈阿密-戴德县的佛罗里达州第27国会选区，此次将面临民主党候选人埃利奥特·罗德里格斯的挑战，后者同样曾是电视新闻主播。
萨拉查2024年在这个绝大多数选民为拉丁裔的选区以近21个百分点的优势获胜。但上月她发布的一则直接针对特朗普的广告引发了轩然大波，也暴露了共和党对失去拉丁裔选民的焦虑。
萨拉查直视镜头，告诉特朗普：“你推行的一些移民执法措施太过火了。”
“小心你的顾问告诉你的那些移民政策建议，”她说，“2024年助你入主白宫的那些拉美裔选民，如今都觉得被背叛了。”
罗德里格斯在周五接受CNN采访时辩称，萨拉查的言行不一。他指出，萨拉查曾投票支持为移民海关执法局拨款，并批评她此前在参观佛罗里达州现已关闭的“短吻鳄恶魔岛”拘留中心后，为该设施的条件辩护的言论。
“我认为这个选区的选民足够聪明，能看穿这一点，会认为这是鳄鱼的眼泪，”他说。
罗德里格斯是在与众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯在派恩克雷斯特的一家咖啡店开展竞选活动后接受CNN采访的。民主党对此选区的胜算越来越有信心。
“民众生活困苦。人们没钱付房租，没钱买 groceries（食品杂货）。汽油价格失控，本届政府的移民政策也对这个选区造成了影响，”罗德里格斯说。
周六上午，在迈阿密的一家牛排馆，萨拉查发表了呼应共和党叙事的言论，将整个民主党党团抹黑为社会主义者，警告“这种意识形态与我们以及这个国家格格不入”。（当被问及民主社会主义运动是否会影响他在佛罗里达州的竞选时，罗德里格斯说：“让我明确一点。我一点也不社会主义。一点也不共产主义。我是资本主义和自由企业的产物。”）
萨拉查在牛排馆的人群中穿梭，随着拉丁音乐响起与选民合影，随后用西班牙语向选民发表讲话。
“这就是第27选区的美妙之处——你可以用西班牙语交流，但你用英语投票，”她说。
CNN的阿里尔·爱德华兹-莱维、卡罗莱纳·佩格罗和埃利斯·哈蒙德为本报道贡献了内容。
‘We’re in a red sinkhole’: Plummeting Latino support for Republicans could swing the midterms
2026-10-19T09:00:44.757Z / CNN
Miami—
Two years ago, aircraft worker Mayumi Castro Fernandez voted for Donald Trump. But on Friday afternoon, she was canvassing a Miami neighborhood for the Democrat challenging an incumbent House Republican in a district where Latinos souring on the president could hand Democrats a win in next month’s midterms — and help propel the party to congressional majorities.
“All the prices go up — the gas, the food, the health insurance,” said Castro Fernandez, a Cuban American who identifies politically as independent and was canvassing with her union, which has backed the Democrat. By the end of the month, she said, families don’t “have all the money we need.”
“We need a change,” she said. “I change my mind. They can change it too.”
Latinos have emerged in recent years as perhaps the biggest group of swing voters in the United States. And if results next month mirror polls that suggest the nation’s 36 million Latino voters are shifting in significant numbers in Democrats’ favor, those voters could be responsible for handing the party control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s presidency.
Traditionally a Democratic-leaning portion of the electorate in most of the nation, Latinos swung heavily toward Trump in the 2024 election — igniting Republican dreams of a long-term political realignment that could remake the American political map, particularly across the growing South.
But the economic frustrations that helped propel Trump to victory are now fueling dissatisfaction among many of those same voters with Republicans who fully control the federal government.
An NBC News/Telemundo poll released this month found that Latino voters say by a 24-point margin, 59% to 35%, that they’d prefer to see the Democrats win control of Congress over the Republicans in November. Exit polls in 2024 found that Trump drew 46% of the Latino vote, compared with 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris. In the NBC/Telemundo poll, just 27% of Latino voters approve of Trump’s job performance overall, with an even smaller 20% approving of his handling of the cost of living.
“They’re moving away from Republicans for the same reason they moved away from Democrats two years ago,” said Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who has written extensively about what he calls a “dealignment” in which large shares of Latino voters hold no party loyalty and cast their votes against what they see as “failed government.”
“Neither party is providing a compelling vision or results-oriented policy for working-class people,” Madrid said. “We are in many ways witnessing an emergent Latino populism that is anti-establishment — meaning both parties.”
The likelihood of another massive swing in the Latino vote is showing up in polls far beyond South Florida. From California’s Central Valley, to House battles in Arizona and Colorado, to a Senate contest in Georgia, where the Latino population is rapidly growing, a big shift in the Latino electorate could tilt a number of outcomes on November 3.
Tory Gavito, a Democratic strategist who leads the progressive donor network Way to Win, said her group’s research shows that Latino voters believed Trump’s pledge to “shake things up” in 2024 — and were willing to ignore his harsh immigration rhetoric because they didn’t identify themselves as among the “bad hombres” he would target.
But now, she said, “they don’t see prices getting lowered, they don’t see an increase in jobs, and many mixed-status families are living in fear.”
“I don’t think we’re in a blue wave,” Gavito said. “I think we’re in a red sinkhole.”
The shift is bolstering Democrats’ chances in Texas, where a Senate race that initially looked like a long shot is now a nail-biter, making it one of several traditionally red states that Democrats are targeting this year as they look for the net gain of four seats necessary to claim a majority.
Strong Latino support could also allow Democrats to retain several of the House seats the GOP redrew in a mid-decade redistricting battle last**.
Those districts, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, were drawn based on Trump’s strong 2024 performance. But if Latino voters in South Texas are now leaning in Democrats’ favor, the GOP’s chances of ousting 28th District Rep. Henry Cuellar and 34th District Rep. Vicente Gonzalez could evaporate. And Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Grammy-winning Tejano singer, could oust Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz of the 15th District.
“Republicans misread the love and the fervor of the MAGA movement as being something that was really deeply ingrained in Latino communities, and overshot their hand,” Gavito said.
In interviews with CNN, Latino voters pointed to economic challenges, including the price of gas and food; the GOP’s cuts to healthcare funding; and Trump’s aggressive mass deportation efforts as reasons for their dissatisfaction with the first two years of his second term.
“Immigration policy is very tough right now. That is precisely why the economy is so weak, with the raids and all that,” said Irma González, a restaurant owner in McAllen, Texas — a Rio Grande Valley city that is split between two competitive House districts. “Many people simply don’t want to go out.”
James Talarico, the Democratic state representative running against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the key Texas Senate race, visited her shop where she makes homemade tortillas. González said her impression was that he “genuinely wants to help us.”
“I hope he wins and does something good — something better,” she said.
Florida, meanwhile, is home to a diverse population of Latino voters, including Cubans in and around Miami who are traditionally conservative; Puerto Ricans in Central Florida who swung in huge numbers toward Trump in 2024; and Venezuelans around Miami and Orlando, many of whom are angry that Trump ended temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals last year.
The state looked like much more of a reach for Democrats — not part of the party’s path to a Senate majority, particularly after democratic socialist Angie Nixon won its nomination to take on Republican Sen. Ashley Moody. But it has appeared surprisingly competitive, including in the contests for governor and multiple House seats, in the final stretch toward November’s midterms.
Because the state mostly sits in the Eastern time zone and counts its votes quickly, strong Democratic performances could be an early indicator on election night of a blue wave set to sweep the country.
Karina Castillo, a Venezuelan American attorney who lives in the Venezuelan-heavy suburb of Doral, said she voted for Trump in 2024 in part because she thought he would bring more order to the immigration process. But nearly two years into his second term, Castillo, an independent, said she regrets her decision, arguing his policy has gone too far.
She said the Trump administration has jailed or deported “a lot of people” who are “doing things right,” including waiting for the legal immigration process to play out.
She also expressed concern with Trump’s attempts to revoke birthright citizenship and his backing of Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, who was vice president to the ousted President Nicolás Maduro.
“A lot of Republicans support him blindfolded, I don’t understand why,” Castillo said. “You cannot be blindfolded. You need to see what’s going on.”
A strong Democratic statewide performance could help the party flip seats like that of Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a former Spanish-language news anchor who represents Florida’s 27th Congressional District, based in Miami-Dade County, and faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, also a former television news anchor.
Salazar won the overwhelmingly Latino district by nearly 21 percentage points in 2024. But she made waves, and laid bare the GOP angst over losing Latino voters, last month in an advertisement that was a message aimed directly at Trump.
Looking straight into the camera, Salazar told Trump that “some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far.”
“Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” she said. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
Rodriguez argued in an interview with CNN on Friday that Salazar’s record doesn’t track with her ad, noting his opponent voted to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and criticizing her past comments defending Alligator Alcatraz’s conditions after she toured the now-closed detention facility in Florida.
“I think voters in this district are smart enough to see through this and see this as crocodile tears,” he said.
Rodriguez spoke to CNN after campaigning with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at a coffee shop in Pinecrest as Democrats grow optimistic this district could be in play.
“People are hurting. People don’t have money to pay rent. People don’t have money to buy groceries. Gas is out of control, and also this immigration policy of this administration is impacting this district,” Rodriguez said.
At a steakhouse in Miami on Saturday morning, Salazar made remarks echoing Republican messaging casting the Democratic Party as a whole as socialists, warning “this ideology has nothing to do with us or with this nation.” (Asked whether the democratic socialist movement complicates his campaign in Florida, Rodriguez said: “Let me make it crystal clear. There’s nothing socialist about me. Nothing communist. I am the product of capitalism and free enterprise.”)
Salazar wove through the crowd at the steakhouse, snapping photos as Latin music played before speaking to voters in Spanish.
“That’s the beauty of District 27 — that you speak in Spanish but you vote in English,” she said.
CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy, Carolina Peguero and Elise Hammond contributed to this report.
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