2026-10-13T09:00:05-04:00 / 福克斯新闻频道
共和党因汽油和柴油价格问题面临农村选民反弹，另有20个众议院选区转向民主党
作者：雷米·努马 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年10月13日 美国东部时间上午9:00
中期选举前国会选战胶着
比尔·赫默剖析最新一期福克斯新闻权力排名，解读国会选战胶着态势及候选人在中期选举前的互攻交锋。
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特朗普任内的中期选举与今年的竞选存在两大显著差异。
其一，总统的支持率。如今的支持率低于2018年唐纳德·特朗普总统第一任期以及2022年乔·拜登总统任期内的水平。
其二，民主党在通用国会选区选票上的领先优势。这一优势比2018年“蓝色浪潮”选举时更为显著且持久，也远大于2022年共和党所拥有的领先幅度。
再加上民主党候选人素质的提升，以及共和党主导的重新划分选区工作可能未达预期，今年众议院的控制权恐已远离共和党。
共和党面临残酷中期选举逆风。六大因素或助其逆势而上。
福克斯新闻权力排名——众议院。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
但二者也存在相似之处：在这三次选举中，参议院的控制权直到选举最后一刻都仍存在变数。
特朗普第一任期内，尽管全国环境低迷，共和党最终仍赢得了两个参议院席位。四年前，在通胀高企的背景下，民主党成功增加了一个参议院席位。
12场角逐搅动参议院战场，民主党盼扭转颓势
福克斯新闻权力排名参议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
民主党在选举夜拿下51个席位的途径颇丰。共和党持续向六个摇摆州以及堪萨斯州投入资金，但这些努力并未显著改变选情。
不过共和党获得50个席位的途径却在增多。本周的权力排名栏目将对此展开详细分析，同时还会更新众议院选情预测。
众议院：民主党有望拿下237席掌控众议院
民主党全年在众议院选举中保持领先。如今又有20个选区转向左翼，本次预测显示民主党将拿下众议院控制权。
蓝色浪潮看似真实，细看却并非如此
福克斯新闻权力排名众议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
民主党至少在219个席位上占据优势，而共和党则应能守住至少198个席位。目前仍有18个摇摆选区尚未确定归属。
若民主党迎来绝佳选情，该党将拿下约237个席位，较当前席位增加22个。这是因为以往选举中，摇摆选区大多会倒向某一个政党。
福克斯新闻权力排名：民主党而言，哪里会出问题？
福克斯新闻权力排名众议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
（若民主党迎来“绝佳之夜”，甚至能拿下一些偏共和党倾向的选区，民主党多数席位将达到249个。）
如果摇摆选区倒向另一方，共和党将给民主党带来不小麻烦。若共和党迎来出色选情，该党将拿下约216个席位。虽距多数席位仍差两席，但民主党在众议院的优势仅剩两票。
福克斯新闻权力排名众议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
在这种情况下，像往年“进步派党团”这样的极左翼民主党联盟可能会联合起来，对下一届众议院议长施加政策压力。由于达丽亚利扎·阿维拉·谢瓦利耶和克莱尔·巴尔德斯等民主社会主义者稳操胜券，该团体的规模即将扩大。
本周的部分选区变动源于民调数据。民主党在通用国会选区选票上的领先优势，让肯塔基州第6选区（列克星敦及其郊区）和得克萨斯州第15选区（里奥格兰德河谷与沿海弯）等选区的支持方向背离了共和党。
福克斯新闻权力排名众议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
民主党在全州选举中的实力也起到了作用，尤其是在艾奥瓦州（包含该州最大城市的第1和第3选区）以及宾夕法尼亚州（三个选区转向左翼，部分得益于州长乔希·夏皮罗的连带效应）。
其他选区变动则源于共和党团体将资源转移至其他选区，例如纽约州第19选区。四年前民主党众议员乔希·莱利以不足5000票的差距输掉该选区，但随着共和党将资金投向更有胜算的选区，该选区已转为“稳固民主党”。
一个更令人意外的趋势也正在显现：共和党在农村选民中陷入困境。
位于纽约州奥尔巴尼上方的第21选区包含该州一些最偏远的农村地区。两年前，该选区选民以21个百分点的优势支持特朗普击败哈里斯副总统。上周的一项民调显示，民主党候选人以46%比42%领先共和党候选人4个百分点。
民主党看到翻转红州新机遇——但共和党4亿美元支出优势或打乱其计划
福克斯新闻权力排名众议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
缅因州第2选区曾连续三次支持特朗普总统，上次选举以9个百分点的优势胜出，今年因众议员贾里德·戈尔登退休而成为开放选区。该选区曾被认为是共和党最佳翻转机会之一。一项新民调显示，民主党候选人支持率为51%，共和党为45%。
就连弗吉尼亚州第5选区——横跨南side地区，三分之二人口为农村人口——在最近的民调中也变成了6个百分点的差距（共和党领先45%比51%）。民主党候选人汤姆·佩里洛近日获得众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特茨的背书。
汽油、柴油和食品价格是罪魁祸首。从金额上看，城市和郊区的生活成本更高，但全美各地的选民都表示感受到了物价上涨的压力，并将其归咎于共和党。
福克斯新闻权力排名众议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
例如，艾奥瓦州的汽油价格涨幅位居全国第四。肯塔基州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州的柴油价格涨幅均位列全国前五。这让共和党候选人难以应对。
纽约州第21选区从“稳固共和党”变为“倾向共和党”。（弗吉尼亚州第5选区和缅因州第2选区分别维持“倾向共和党”和“摇摆不定”的评级。）
参议院：米歇尔·塔福亚在明尼苏达州发起攻势
参议院仍处于摇摆状态，两党各拿下47个席位。六个摇摆州最有可能决定参议院控制权归属。
若民主党拿下全部六个摇摆州，将以两席优势拿下多数席位，总计53席。另一方面，本次预测仍为共和党保留了不丢失任何席位的路径。他们只需守住现有的六个摇摆州即可实现这一目标。
福克斯新闻权力排名参议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
摇摆选区大多在夏季就已确定。“倾向”类别的选区出现了更多变动（堪萨斯州加入，佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州退出）。总体而言，这些都可被视为选举夜的主战场。
本周，第九个州加入了战场：明尼苏达州。
自共和党招募前NFL场边记者米歇尔·塔福亚参选以来，这个“北星之州”一直处于政治聚光灯下。她通过聚焦欺诈、犯罪以及触动共和党选民的文化议题，巧妙地开启了自己的政治生涯。
福克斯新闻权力排名明尼苏达州参议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
她与明尼苏达州现任副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根的对决前景可观。目前尚不清楚是弗拉纳根的进步主义政治立场，还是她与欺诈丑闻的关联让选民犹豫不决。无论原因是什么，都有迹象表明选民正在动摇。
一项新的权威民调显示，47%的可能选民支持弗拉纳根，43%支持塔福亚，另有9%尚未决定。
共和党全体一致支持塔福亚，而90%的民主党选民表示会支持弗拉纳根。独立选民则尚未下定决心：38%支持塔福亚，32%支持弗拉纳根，29%尚未拿定主意。
福克斯新闻权力排名明尼苏达州参议院预测。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
明尼苏达州的选民构成和选举历史显示，“独立选民”群体中存在一些左翼倾向的选民。他们现在可能对弗拉纳根犹豫不决，但在选举日可能会投票支持她。
这位参议院候选人与民主党州长候选人、选举表现出色的艾米·克洛布查尔同处选票之上，这或许也能帮助她获得更多支持。
点击此处下载福克斯新闻APP
无论如何，这项民调都不容忽视。明尼苏达州的评级从“倾向民主党”变为“ leans D”（偏民主党倾向）。
雷米·努马是政治顾问兼福克斯新闻特约撰稿人。您可以在X平台关注他：@remynuma。
Fox News Power Rankings: As the House falls, the Senate stays in play
2026-10-13T09:00:05-04:00 / Fox News
Republicans face rural voter backlash over gas and diesel prices as 20 more House races shift toward Democrats
By Rémy Numa Fox News
Published October 13, 2026 9:00am EDT
Congressional races tighten ahead of midterm elections
Bill Hemmer breaks down the latest Fox News Power Rankings as congressional races tighten and candidates trade jabs ahead of midterms.
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There are two big differences between the previous Trump-era midterms and this year’s contest.
The first is the president’s approval rating, which is lower now than it was during President Donald Trump’s first term in 2018 or President Joe Biden’s term in 2022.
The second is Democrats’ generic ballot lead, which is wider and more enduring than it was in the 2018 “blue wave” election and much larger than the edge the GOP had in 2022.
Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year.
REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.
Fox News Power Rankings – House.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Then there’s a similarity: in all three elections, the Senate has been in play right up until the finish line.
In Trump’s first term, the Republicans ended up gaining two Senate seats despite a gloomy national environment. Four years ago, with inflation surging, the Democrats managed to add a Senate seat to their tally.
12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The Democrats have plentiful paths to 51 seats on election night. Republicans keep plowing money into six toss-up states, plus Kansas, and those efforts haven’t much moved the needle.
Yet the GOP’s paths to 50 are getting wider. That, plus a major update to the House forecast, in this week’s edition of the Power Rankings.
House: Democrats set to take control with up to 237 seats
The Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the House all year. Now, as another 20 races shift leftward, this forecast sees the Democrats taking control.
THE BLUE WAVE LOOKS REAL UNTIL YOU LOOK A LITTLE CLOSER
Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Democrats have an advantage in at least 219 seats, while Republicans should hold on to at least 198 seats. There are 18 toss-ups on the board.
On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position. That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
(A “great night” for the Democrats, which would see the party take some Lean R seats as well, would mean a Democratic majority of up to 249.)
If the toss-up seats go the other way, the GOP could make life hard for the left. A good night for Republicans would see the party end up with around 216 seats. That’s two short of a majority but also leaves the Democrats with a mere two-vote cushion in the House.
Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
In that scenario, a coalition of far-left Democrats, like the “Squad” of years past, could band together to put policy pressure on the next House speaker. That group is about to get bigger, thanks to the sure-thing victories of Democratic Socialists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez.
Some of this week’s shifts are a product of polling. The Democrats’ generic ballot lead has pushed districts like Kentucky’s 6th District (Lexington and its suburbs) and Texas’ 15th District (Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend) away from the GOP.
Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The party’s strength in statewide races also plays a role, especially in Iowa (the 1st and 3rd districts, which contain the state’s biggest cities), and in Pennsylvania (three districts have shifted to the left, thanks in part to Governor Josh Shapiro’s coattails).
Other shifts are the result of Republican groups moving resources elsewhere, like from New York’s 19th District. Democratic Rep. Josh Riley lost this race by fewer than 5,000 votes four years ago, but as the GOP sends its money to more winnable races, it’s moving to Solid D.
A more surprising theme is also emerging: the GOP is in trouble with rural voters.
Sitting above Albany, New York’s 21st District contains some of the state’s most rural areas. Its voters delivered President Trump a 21-point victory over Vice President Harris two years ago. A survey last week had the Democratic candidate four points ahead of the Republican, 46%-42%.
DEMOCRATS SEE NEW CHANCES TO FLIP RED STATES — BUT A $400M GOP SPENDING ADVANTAGE COULD DERAIL THEIR PLANS
Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Maine’s 2nd District, which famously voted for President Trump three times in a row – and last time by nine points – is an open race this year after Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement. It was thought to be one of the best flip opportunities for the GOP. A new poll has the Democrat at 51% and the Republican at 45%.
Even Virginia’s 5th District, stretching across the Southside region and home to a two-thirds rural population, is a six-point race in a recent survey (45%-51% with the Republican ahead). The Democrat, Tom Perriello, was recently endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Gas, diesel and grocery prices are to blame. In dollar terms, the cost of living is higher in cities and suburbs, but voters across the country keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them.
Fox News Power Rankings House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Iowa, for example, has experienced the fourth-highest gas price hike in the nation. Kentucky, Ohio and Texas are all in the top five states for diesel increases. That has proven tough for GOP candidates to counter.
New York’s 21st District moves from Solid R to Likely R. (Virginia’s 5th and Maine’s 2nd districts remain at Lean R and Toss-up, respectively.)
Senate: Michele Tafoya plays offense in Minnesota
The Senate is still a toss-up with Democrats and Republicans taking 47 seats apiece. Six toss-ups are the most likely to determine control.
If Democrats win all six of those states, the party will take the majority with two seats to spare, for a total of 53. On the other hand, this forecast still sees a pathway for the GOP not to lose any seats. They’d accomplish that just by holding on to the same six states.
Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The toss-ups have largely been locked in through summer. There’s been a lot more movement in the “lean” categories (Kansas in, Georgia and North Carolina out). Collectively, you can think of these as the election night battlegrounds.
This week, a ninth state joins the list: Minnesota.
The North Star State has been on the political radar since Republicans recruited Michele Tafoya, the former NFL sideline reporter. She has deftly navigated her foray into politics by focusing on fraud, crime, and the cultural issues that animate GOP voters.
Fox News Power Rankings Minnesota Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
She also has a favorable matchup against Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s sitting lieutenant governor. It’s not clear whether Flanagan’s progressive politics or her proximity to the fraud issue is giving voters pause. Whatever the cause, there are signs that they are.
A new gold-standard survey shows 47% of likely voters support Flanagan, while 43% back Tafoya. Another 9% are undecided.
Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9-in-10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38% back Tafoya, 32% support Flanagan, and 29% haven’t decided.
Fox News Power Rankings Minnesota Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Minnesota’s voter profile and election history suggest that there are some left-of-center voters in the “independent” column. They may be wavering on Flanagan now, then show up to vote for her on election day.
The Senate hopeful’s spot on the ballot next to Amy Klobuchar, the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate and electoral over-performer, may also help push her over the line.
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Either way, that poll can’t be ignored. Minnesota moves from Likely D to Lean D.
Rémy Numa is a political consultant and Fox News contributor. You can follow him on X: @remynuma.
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