2026-10-09T04:01:44.558Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/politics/trump-iran-war-midterms
唐纳德·特朗普总统周四宣布，在下月中期选举前不会再次袭击伊朗，这含蓄承认了这场违背他速胜承诺的战争，正对共和党选情造成破坏。
对这场冲突的反对，以及对其推高汽油和柴油价格的愤怒，是共和党在爱荷华州、俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州等特朗普两年前轻松拿下的州会选区面临激烈竞争或势均力敌选战的主要原因。
从这个意义上说，伊朗似乎成功利用中期选举给特朗普制造了政治麻烦。不过，伊朗未能将这种压力转化为迫使特朗普按其条件结束战争的退让——这也是未来三周内伊朗升级行动不能被排除的原因之一。
特朗普周四提及选举日程，是迄今为止最明确的迹象，表明他意识到这场战争在国会控制权的激烈争夺中对其所在政党候选人的负面影响。这也显著表明，他已陷入自己制造的中东困局，而这场困局可能对其政党和政治遗产造成毁灭性打击——就在20个月前的第二任就职演说中，他还曾承诺，他的成就将以“我们从未卷入的战争”来衡量。
通过保留中期选举后恢复空袭的选项，特朗普首次明确了他可能最终结束这场他曾说只会持续数周、如今已进入第八个月的战争的方式。与此同时，民主党有可能在11月拿下国会至少一院，这增加了华盛顿在战争融资以及特朗普参战的法律立场问题上爆发更重大政治对峙的可能性。
特朗普在Truth Social平台上写道，美国对伊朗石油出口和船只的封锁已将该国逼至“非常糟糕的境地”，并补充道，“在中期选举前，我们任何时候都不会袭击伊朗。”
特朗普在伊朗问题上的立场始终前后不一。他经常改变战略和言论，有时似乎是为了迷惑伊朗领导层。因此，人们对他这次的表态是否明确存在一些质疑。
但他是在《大西洋月刊》和Axios报道他正考虑在11月3日选举前恢复大规模军事行动后，公开宣布这一计划的，此举旨在向选民展示决心，并让美国人相信战争即将结束、汽油价格将会下降。
发动空袭以提醒美国人有多厌恶这场战争，似乎是一个值得商榷的策略，尤其是在一些处于激烈选战中的共和党人都希望战争结束的情况下。“伊朗战争必须结束，而且要尽快结束，”密歇根州共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯上月末在一段社交媒体视频中说道。
伊朗曾希望通过经济压力迫使特朗普妥协
伊朗曾在1980年大选前夕通过人质危机破坏了吉米·卡特的总统任期，如今则通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡及其他地区的石油供应，介入了当前的竞选活动。
这场战争可能对一些共和党候选人造成毁灭性打击，因为它将特朗普的个人决策与困扰家庭预算的高物价直接联系在了一起。周四公布的一项新的CNN/SSRS民调显示，在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州这两个参议院席位竞争激烈的关键州，超过七成选民认为特朗普的政策推高了生活成本。周四发布的皮尤研究中心新报告显示，74%的美国人担忧汽油和能源价格，而战前这一比例仅为43%。
特朗普似乎试图将中期选举与战争脱钩，以降低德黑兰的谈判筹码。
一直以来的问题是，伊朗承受战争造成损失的能力，是否能超过特朗普承受美国经济动荡带来的政治后果的能力。
“他们以为能比我撑得更久，你知道，‘我们要耗死他。他还要应付中期选举。’”特朗普在5月的内阁会议上说道，“我不在乎中期选举。”
上月末，特朗普表示：“我相信我们会在选举后达成协议，因为他们没有理由不这么做。”他补充道：“他们正等着看我在中期选举中的表现。”
鉴于特朗普在战争期间频繁在言论和战略上反复无常，一些观察人士对他在8月末至9月初的最新暴力冲突爆发后仍坚持封锁战略感到意外。
他认为美国正在取胜的说法得到了一些迹象的支持：伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡——其在这场战争中获得的关键战略要地——的控制已经松动。在美国军方协调下，海湾其他产油国的石油运输几乎恢复正常。但进展十分脆弱。路透社报道称，在袭击和骚扰油轮事件增多后，周二仅有7艘船只通过该海峡，为两个多月来的最低水平，周三也仅有10艘。
尽管官员们坚称美国对伊朗的封锁正在奏效，但这并未给共和党候选人带来政治上的好处。
全国汽油均价仍顽固维持在每加仑4.36美元，柴油价格虽较上月的历史高位有所回落，但依然高得令人难以承受。
也门胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯之间的战斗加剧，推动基准布伦特原油价格周四上涨4%，这凸显了这场随时可能扩大的多战线战争的现实。
这可能意味着美国民众在加油站的支出将进一步增加。即便选举日前油价不知何故下跌，人们也无法弥补自战争开始以来在汽油上多花的所有钱。
因此，政府只能再次承诺战争很快就会结束。“我认为可能在数周或数月内——伊朗不必经济崩溃，我们只需要让该政权认清现实，”财政部长斯科特·贝森特8月31日在二十国集团会谈上说道。
这种笃定的态度或许可以解释，为何特朗普在9月末拒绝了伊朗提出的中期选举前达成妥协的提议：伊朗重新开放海峡并恢复核谈判，以换取美国放松封锁。
在竞选活动中，特朗普一直难以让美国人相信他的战略能够奏效，即便这代表了美国有史以来对伊朗实施的最持续、最全面的经济胁迫。
毫无疑问，美国给伊朗国内造成的痛苦比德黑兰给美国人造成的要大。伊朗国内通胀飙升，货币里亚尔大幅贬值。据《纽约时报》报道，伊朗国家安全顾问穆赫辛·雷扎伊周六通过官方伊斯兰共和国新闻通讯社表示，当前局势是该国面临的最困难时期之一。
但特朗普向选民宣称伊朗即将投降的说法，目前还站不住脚。周二，雷扎伊警告伊朗绝不会投降。“贝森特的妄想预测从一开始就毫无可信度，”他在X平台上写道，“他最新的宣传也同样不会长久。你们在军事战争中失败了，也会在经济战争中失败。”
特朗普并未排除选举日后发动新袭击的可能。
《华尔街日报》上周报道称，美国政府正向中东派遣另一个航母打击群和一个额外的海军陆战队远征部队。报道称，特朗普最近告诉助手，他预计在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的轰炸。
等到美国民众投票之后再采取行动，将缓解特朗普眼下的一些政治压力——即便这会再次推高石油、汽油和柴油价格，让数百万美国人感到不满。
但如果民主党拿下众议院或参议院，特朗普的行动窗口可能会很狭窄。明年将爆发关于总统战争权以及资助对伊朗军事行动的对峙，截至9月中旬，这场战争已耗资450亿美元。
而新一轮军事行动将给特朗普带来一个老生常谈的问题：如果此前的空中打击都未能改变伊朗的立场，为何新一轮打击会有所不同？
Why Trump and Iran may now be waiting out the midterms
2026-10-09T04:01:44.558Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/politics/trump-iran-war-midterms
President Donald Trump’s declaration Thursday that he would not attack Iran again before next month’s midterm elections was an implicit admission of the damage being inflicted on Republican hopes by a war that has defied his promise of a quick victory.
Opposition to the conflict, and anger over the high gasoline and diesel prices it caused, are a prime reason why the GOP faces uphill or tight races for Congress in states like Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina that Trump easily won two years ago.
In that sense, Iran appears to have succeeded in its apparent effort to use the midterm elections to inflict political pain on Trump. It has failed, however, to turn that pressure into a retreat in which the president ends the war on its terms — one reason why an Iranian escalation in the next three weeks cannot be ruled out.
Trump’s reference to the election calendar on Thursday is the clearest indication yet that he is aware of the war’s negative impact on his party’s candidates amid a pitched battle for control of Congress. It is also a striking sign that he has become trapped in his own Middle East entanglement, which could be devastating to his party and his legacy, after promising in his second inaugural address only 20 months ago that his success would be measured by “the wars we never get into.”
And by leaving open the option of a resumption of attacks after the midterms, the president is offering new clarity on how he might finally end a war he said would last weeks that is now in its eighth month. The prospect that Democrats could claim at least one chamber of Congress in November, meanwhile, raises the possibility of a far more consequential political showdown in Washington over financing the war — and Trump’s legal standing in fighting it.
The president wrote on Truth Social that his blockade of Iran’s oil exports and ships had reduced the country to a “very bad condition” and added that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.”
Trump has hardly been consistent on Iran. He’s often reversed his strategy and statements, sometimes apparently seeking to confuse Iran’s leaders. So there is some doubt about whether his word is equivocal this time.
But he went public on his plans following reports by the Atlantic and Axios that he was considering a resumption of major combat operations before the election on November 3, being keen to show resolve to voters and to convince Americans that an end to the war and lower gas prices were on the way.
Launching strikes that would remind Americans how much they dislike the war would seem a questionable strategy, especially since some Republicans in close races want it over. “The war in Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers said in a social media video late last month.
Iran hoped economic pressure would force Trump’s hand
Iran, a nation that helped wreck Jimmy Carter’s presidency with a hostage crisis in the run-up to the 1980 election, has played into the current election campaign by obstructing oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere.
The war threatens to be devastating to some Republican candidates because it created a tangible link between Trump’s own decision-making and the high prices that are hounding family budgets. In a new CNN/SSRS poll on Thursday, more than 7 in 10 voters in Iowa and Ohio, home to critical Senate contests, said Trump’s policies had increased the cost of living. A new Pew Research Center report Thursday showed that 74% of Americans are concerned about the price of gas and energy. Before the war, 43% said so.
Trump has sought to decouple the midterm elections from the war in an apparent effort to reduce Tehran’s leverage.
The question all along has been whether Iran’s capacity to endure war-inflicted pain can outlast Trump’s capacity to bear the political fallout caused by economic disruption in the US.
“They thought they were going to outwait me; you know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms.’” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting in May. “I don’t care about the midterms.”
Late last month, the president said, “I believe we’ll make a deal right after the election, because it doesn’t make sense for them not to.” He added: “They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election.”
Given his frequent rhetorical and strategic reversals during the war, Trump has surprised some observers by sticking to his blockade strategy following the latest eruption of violence in late August and early September.
His argument that the US is winning is supported by signs that Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz — its key strategic gain of the war — has loosened. Oil flows from the Gulf states apart from Iran returned almost to normal in an operation coordinated by the US military. But progress is fragile. Reuters reported there were only seven crossings of the strait Tuesday — the lowest level in more than two months — and only 10 on Wednesday, following an uptick of attacks and harassment on tankers.
And while officials argue the US blockade on Iran is working, there’s been no political payoff to help Republican candidates.
Gasoline prices still stubbornly average $4.36 a gallon nationally, and diesel remains punitively expensive, despite falling back from record highs last month.
The reality of a multi-front war that could expand at any moment was underscored when fighting intensified between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia — pushing the cost of benchmark Brent crude up 4% Thursday.
That likely means more pain at the pump for Americans. And even if prices did somehow fall before Election Day, no one is getting back all the extra cash they’ve spent on gasoline since the start of the war.
So the administration must fall back on more promises the war will soon end. “I think it could be within weeks or months — and the (Iranian) economy doesn’t have to collapse, we just have to have the regime come to their senses,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at G20 talks on August 31.
This sense of certainty may explain why Trump rejected Iran’s offer of a pre-midterm win at the end of September to reopen the strait and to resume nuclear talks in a return for the easing of the blockade.
On the campaign trail, Trump has struggled to convince Americans that his strategy can deliver, even if it represents the most sustained and comprehensive economic coercion the US has ever used against Iran.
There’s no doubt that the US is causing greater pain inside Iran than Tehran is imposing on Americans. Inflation is soaring. Its currency, the rial, is tumbling. According to the New York Times, Iran’s national security adviser Mohsen Rezaei was reported by the official IRNA news agency on Saturday as saying the current circumstances are among the most difficult periods the country has faced.
But Trump’s argument to voters that an Iranian surrender is around the corner does not yet stand up. On Tuesday, Rezaei warned that Iran would never surrender. “Bessent’s delusional forecasts never had any credibility in the first place,” he wrote on X. “His latest propaganda will have an equally short shelf life. You lost the military war. You will fail in the economic war, too.”
Trump didn’t rule out new attacks after Election Day.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the administration is sending another aircraft-carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. It said that Trump recently told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the midterms.
Waiting until after Americans vote would alleviate some of the immediate political pressure on the president — even if it sends oil, gasoline and diesel prices soaring again, to the discomfort of millions of Americans.
But if Democrats win either the House or the Senate, his window may be narrow. Showdowns would erupt next year over presidential war powers and financing of military operations against Iran, which had already cost $45 billion by mid-September.
And a new burst of military action would present Trump with a familiar question. If previous aerial onslaughts from the air did not change Iran’s stance, why would a new one be any different?
发表回复