2026-10-08T09:00:45.524Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/cnn-polls-ohio-iowa-senate-governor-midterms
全美民众对国家现状的普遍不满，为民主党在俄亥俄州拿下参议院席位创造了绝佳机会，也让艾奥瓦州的参议院选举呈现胶着态势，这是SSRS为CNN开展的最新民调结果。
唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年以两位数优势拿下这两个州，而目前共和党掌控着两地的全部两个联邦参议院席位以及州政府的所有权力。
但在这些深红州，潜在选民大多不认可特朗普的总统施政表现，认为他的政策推高了生活成本，且对外国商品征收的关税总体上对本州造成了负面影响。两州各有约四成选民表示，自己的财务状况比两年前更糟。
当被问及今年中期选举后希望哪个政党掌控参议院时，艾奥瓦州的潜在选民更支持共和党（53%对46%）。而在俄亥俄州，双方支持率基本持平（民主党52%，共和党48%）。
同时在两州，民主党在州长选举中都占据上风。
参议院选举对民主党而言机遇与挑战并存
在俄亥俄州，民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗在潜在选民中以6个百分点的优势领先共和党候选人乔恩·赫斯特德。赫斯特德是前副州长，此次获任命填补副总统JD·万斯空出的参议院席位。
民调显示，布朗比赫斯特德知名度更高、更受选民喜爱，双方选民都表示，自己的投票选择更多是基于对布朗的态度，而非对赫斯特德的看法。近半数潜在选民认为布朗的观点和政策在意识形态上恰到好处，另有43%的人认为他过于自由派。对赫斯特德的立场满意的选民更少：42%的人认为他的观点和政策恰到好处，40%的人认为他过于保守，16%的人认为他不够保守。
在布朗的支持者中，62%的人表示这更多是一次支持布朗的投票，而非反对赫斯特德；同样，赫斯特德的支持者中，反布朗的选民（56%）比例也高于支持赫斯特德本身的选民（44%）。
俄亥俄州约四成潜在选民表示，比起候选人的经验、品格或政策立场，哪个政党掌控参议院对他们的投票影响更大。受这一因素影响的选民在布朗和赫斯特德之间的支持率基本持平。
民主党若要掌控参议院，需要守住密歇根州、新罕布什尔州和佐治亚州等摇摆州的席位，同时拿下目前由共和党掌控的四个席位。该党最佳的夺席机会在北卡罗来纳州，而俄亥俄州可能是第二好的选择。作为今年参议院选举战场核心的数个深红州之一，艾奥瓦州对民主党而言则更具挑战性。
民调显示，艾奥瓦州的参议院选举暂无明确领先者，共和党议员阿什利·辛森获得45%的潜在选民支持，民主党候选人乔希·图雷克支持率为43%。
近三成艾奥瓦州潜在选民表示尚未确定支持对象，且有相当比例的选民对两位候选人都尚未形成看法。图雷克的知名度低于辛森，24%的选民表示从未听说过他或对他没有看法，而这一比例在辛森身上为18%。对辛森有看法的选民中，负面评价多于正面评价，而对图雷克的看法则基本持平。
与俄亥俄州形成对比的是，艾奥瓦州两位候选人的大多数支持者都表示，自己的选择是出于支持心仪的候选人，而非反对对手：66%的辛森支持者和60%的图雷克支持者表示，他们的投票是为了支持自己支持的候选人。
民调中也有迹象显示，艾奥瓦州比俄亥俄州更有利于共和党。除了潜在选民更支持共和党掌控参议院外，特朗普在该州的支持率为41%，高于俄亥俄州的36%，也显著高于CNN民调汇总中他34%的全国平均支持率。在评价候选人时，认为图雷克过于自由派的选民（46%）多于认为辛森过于保守的选民（38%）。
在艾奥瓦州和俄亥俄州，约半数潜在选民将经济和生活成本列为首要议题，这一比例比第二重要的议题——美国民主现状——高出20多个百分点。
全年困扰特朗普全国支持率的经济担忧在两州同样明显。两州各有约四分之三的选民表示，特朗普的政策推高了当地的生活成本，多数选民认为上调对外国商品的关税对本州不利，约七成选民表示自己至少因汽油价格上涨而遭遇了一定困难。总体而言，认为自身财务状况在过去两年恶化的选民远多于认为状况好转的选民。
两州各有约四成选民表示，对当前国家的发展方向感到愤怒。在两州，这些愤怒的选民的投票积极性都高于对国家发展方向感到满意或充满热情的选民。
民主党在州长选举中占据上风
在两州，民主党在州长选举的潜在选民支持率上都处于领先地位。在艾奥瓦州，民主党人罗布·桑德以9个百分点的优势领先共和党候选人扎克·拉恩；而在俄亥俄州，民主党人艾米·阿克顿以8个百分点的优势领先共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米。如果这些优势保持到选举日，两席都将是民主党的夺席机会。
拉马斯瓦米和拉恩的公众形象似乎拖累了他们的竞选，两州不看好这两位共和党候选人的潜在选民比例都以两位数优势超过看好他们的比例。相比之下，艾奥瓦州近半数潜在选民对桑德持正面看法，而不看好他的比例为32%；在俄亥俄州，选民对阿克顿的看法则基本持平。
CNN的阿里尔·爱德华兹-莱维、爱德华·吴和伊莎贝尔·拉比安科为本报道撰稿。
CNN针对艾奥瓦州和俄亥俄州潜在选民的民调于2026年9月29日至10月5日通过线上和电话方式开展。研究人员从选民登记名单和概率抽样面板中随机抽取登记选民作为样本。潜在选民的结果基于所有受访登记选民，并根据他们在今年选举中的预计投票可能性进行加权。艾奥瓦州的801名潜在选民的抽样误差幅度为正负4.2个百分点；俄亥俄州的760名潜在选民的抽样误差幅度为正负4.5个百分点。
An Ohio edge. An Iowa tossup. New CNN polls give Democrats hope in a pair of red states
2026-10-08T09:00:45.524Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/cnn-polls-ohio-iowa-senate-governor-midterms
Widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country has opened up a prime Senate pickup opportunity for Democrats in Ohio and made for a razor-thin contest in Iowa, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
President Donald Trump carried both states by double digits in 2024, and Republicans currently hold both US Senate seats and complete control of the state government in each of them.
But in these deep-red states, likely voters now mostly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, say his policies have increased the cost of living and that tariffs on foreign goods have largely been a negative for their states. About four in 10 in each state say they are financially worse off than they were two years ago.
Asked which party they’d like to see in control of the Senate after this year’s midterms, Iowa’s likely voters favor the Republicans (53% to 46%). In Ohio, it’s a more even divide (52% Democrats, 48% Republicans).
And in both states, Democrats have the upper hand in the race for governor.
Senate contests present opportunities for Democrats — and challenges
In Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 6-point lead among likely voters over Jon Husted, a Republican former lieutenant governor who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Brown is more widely known and better liked than Husted, according to the poll, and voters on both sides of the contest say their decision is more about Brown than it is about Husted. Nearly half of likely voters see Brown’s views and policies as about right ideologically, while 43% call him too liberal. Fewer are satisfied with Husted’s positions – 42% call his views and policies about right, 40% say he’s too conservative and 16% not conservative enough.
Among Brown’s own supporters, 62% say that choice is more a vote for Brown than against Husted, and likewise, Husted’s voters are more anti-Brown voters (56%) than pro-Husted voters (44%).
About 4 in 10 likely voters in Ohio say that which party controls the Senate will be more of a factor in their vote than the candidates’ experience and character or their positions on the issues. Voters motivated by that are split about evenly between Brown and Husted.
In order to take control of the Senate, Democrats need to hold their seats in battlegrounds like Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia while flipping four seats currently held by Republicans. The party’s best pickup opportunity comes in North Carolina, but Ohio may be their next best shot. Iowa, one of several deeply red states at the heart of this year’s Senate playing field, is more of a stretch for Democrats.
The poll finds no clear leader in the Senate race in Iowa, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45% to Democrat Josh Turek’s 43% among likely voters.
Almost 3 in 10 Iowa likely voters say they haven’t yet firmly decided whom to support, and sizable shares don’t yet have an opinion on each candidate. Turek is less well-known than Hinson, with 24% saying they have never heard of him or don’t have an opinion, while 18% say the same about her. Those with an opinion of Hinson break more negative than positive, while views of Turek are about evenly split.
In contrast with Ohio, most backers of both candidates in Iowa say their choices are motivated by support for their chosen candidate rather than by opposition to their opponent: 66% of Hinson supporters and 60% of Turek supporters say their choice is in support of their candidate.
There are some signs in the poll that Iowa offers a better playing field for Republicans than does Ohio. In addition to likely voters’ preference for a GOP-controlled Senate, Trump’s approval rating here stands at 41% compared with 36% in Ohio and notably above his 34% average nationwide in the CNN Poll of Polls. And in assessing the candidates, more call Turek too liberal (46%) than say that Hinson is too conservative (38%).
In both Iowa and Ohio, about half of likely voters call the economy and cost of living their top issue, more than 20 points higher than the second most important issue, the state of US democracy.
The economic concerns that have buffeted Trump’s approval ratings nationally all year long are evident here. About three-quarters in each state say that Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living there, majorities say that increased tariffs on foreign goods are a bad thing for their state and roughly seven in 10 say they have faced at least some hardship from rising gas prices. Overall, far more say their own financial situation has worsened in the last two years than say it has gotten better.
About four in 10 in each state say they are angry about the way things are going in the country today. Those angry voters express more motivation to vote than do those who are enthusiastic or satisfied with the way things are going in the country in both states.
Democrats with upper hand in governor races
In both states, Democrats lead in the race for governor among likely voters. Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa by 9 points, while in Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton tops Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 8 points. Both would be Democratic pickups if these margins were to hold.
Impressions of Ramaswamy and Lahn appear to be weighing down their candidacies, with the share of likely voters who hold unfavorable opinions of the two Republicans outpacing favorable views by double-digit margins. By comparison, nearly half of Iowa likely voters have a favorable view of Sand – compared to 32% unfavorable – while in Ohio views of Acton are more evenly split.
CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu and Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.
The CNN polls of Iowa and Ohio likely voters were conducted online and by phone September 29-October 5, 2026. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among 801 likely voters in Iowa have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points; it is 4.5 points among the 760 likely voters in Ohio.
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