特朗普在不到一个月内第三次前往得州,尽管帕克斯顿音频丑闻缠身


2026-10-07T18:59:41.030Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/07/politics/trump-texas-ken-paxton

圣安东尼奥——

唐纳德·特朗普总统将在不到一个月内第三次前往得州,为一名私下质疑其政治影响力、且被特朗普公开进行人身侮辱的参议院候选人助选。

这正是11月3日中期选举的最后冲刺阶段,共和党保住参议院多数席位的局势愈发艰难,而拿下得州是其通往多数党地位的必经之路。

共和党正投入数百万美元支持州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。民调显示,在特朗普2024年以超过13个百分点优势拿下的得州,帕克斯顿的竞选形势比预期更胶着,其对手是民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。该州自1994年以来就未选出过全州范围的民主党官员。

一名得州共和党战略家表示,特朗普周三在圣安东尼奥的亮相将受到密切关注,看是否能提升帕克斯顿的选情——这或将决定该州后续的竞选投入。

此次是特朗普上周刚到访得州后不到一周的又一次得州之行,这也是他中期选举激进出行计划的一部分。此前他已前往阿拉巴马州、俄克拉荷马州、内布拉斯加州等他2024年以压倒性优势获胜的传统共和党票仓。特朗普多次对集会人群表示“假装”今年秋季大选他本人也在参选名单上,其顾问认为,11月大选的最佳机会在于调动基础选民的投票率。

但即便在这些红色州,也有一些共和党人寻求与这位不受欢迎的总统保持距离。得州州长格雷格·雅培将不会出席周三晚间的特朗普集会,理由是日程冲突。他上周也缺席了特朗普的造势活动。

“在我看来,帕克斯顿团队显然认为,邀请特朗普前来绝对是值得的,”这名得州共和党战略家说道。

但就在特朗普周三抵达得州之际,帕克斯顿也因似乎将自己的竞选困境归咎于总统及其部分政策而登上头条。

据周三由Axios获得的音频显示,这位共和党提名候选人上月对一群捐赠者和说客表示,伊朗相关战事和高油价正在损害他的竞选活动。“我做不了决定,也不……清楚某些决定背后的考量,”他在音频中说道。CNN尚未独立核实这段音频的真实性。

帕克斯顿的竞选团队驳斥了这一报道。其发言人麦迪逊·瑟西在给CNN的一份声明中称:“总检察长所说的,是每个得州人都心知肚明的事实:汽油和柴油价格过高,辛勤工作的得州民众在加油和购物时都倍感吃力。”她还补充道,特朗普“正尽一切所能压低油价”。

但就在上周,《纽约时报》曝光了帕克斯顿抱怨上月在达拉斯举行的特朗普中期选举大会毫无帮助的音频。

“说实话,那场大会之后,我们的支持率下滑了,”这位得州总检察长说道。帕克斯顿的高级顾问尼克·马杜克斯在给CNN的一份声明中,将《纽约时报》的报道称为“被操纵的胡言乱语”,目的是“编造根本不存在的新闻”。

帕克斯顿一直深陷多起丑闻,包括最终达成预审协议的证券欺诈指控、不忠指控,以及2023年被州众议院弹劾(后经参议院宣判无罪)。但即便有这些负面包袱,特朗普还是在今年早些时候的共和党初选 runoff中支持帕克斯顿,击败了时任参议员约翰·康恩。

不过,两人的关系似乎并不融洽,尽管特朗普周三在椭圆形办公室对记者表示,他并不后悔支持帕克斯顿。

上周在得州登顿的一场造势活动中,特朗普称帕克斯顿是“最忠诚的人之一”——但也“有时候挺让人头疼”。

他还经常调侃这位州总检察长的外形。

“有些人可能不喜欢他的穿衣风格,”特朗普在达拉斯大会的演讲中说道:“我无所谓。”

特朗普周三晚间会再次拿这点调侃吗?

一名不愿具名的得州共和党非帕克斯顿阵营幕僚直言:“总统明白得州对保住参议院共和党多数席位有多重要,所以我认为他可以抛开所有个人芥蒂,专注于更大的局面。”

“但我确信,他同时也很享受让帕克斯顿坐立不安的感觉,”这名幕僚补充道。

CNN已就特朗普的此次到访联系帕克斯顿的竞选团队。

《纽约时报》报道的帕克斯顿言论凸显了总统的不受欢迎——在最新的CNN民调汇总中,他的支持率仅为34%——这可能让他成为部分候选人不受欢迎的助选嘉宾。

他在2024年助其胜选的选民群体中也正在失去支持。本周早些时候公布的NBC新闻/特莱穆多电视台民调显示,特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率仅为27%。特朗普或许希望通过此次到访人口中64.6%为西班牙裔或拉丁裔的圣安东尼奥扭转这一局面。

但这名得州共和党战略家表示,此次到访本身也存在风险。

“为什么要去一个可能反而会动员对方选民的地方,而不是去拉伯克、阿马里洛或东得州这样的地方?在那里你可以凭借特朗普的品牌号召力,调动真正能帮助帕克斯顿胜选的选民群体?”这名战略家说道。

民主党则将特朗普重返得州视为己方的利好信号。

“如果在竞选的最后阶段,你不得不在得州四度邀请唐纳德·特朗普助选,那就说明你已经放弃了独立选民。这不过是一场挽回损失的策略,”一名得州民主党幕僚说道。

这场参议院竞选,以及此前的共和党初选和 runoff,已经有望成为全美耗资最高的竞选之一。

CNN此前曾报道,共和党在得州的相关竞选开支预计将超过3亿美元,共和党及其关联机构的支出比民主党多出5倍以上。据广告追踪公司AdImpact的数据,自5月底共和党初选 runoff结束以来,共和党已在广告上投入1.58亿美元,另有3800万美元的广告预订尚未播出。与此同时,民主党在5月底至周二期间的广告支出约为其一半:7500万美元,另有600万美元的广告预订。

但在深红州得州如此高的开支,会对参议院其他选区的竞选产生影响。

“我们中的很多人都对当初的预测得到验证感到非常失望,为保住帕克斯顿这个参议院候选人,我们将不得不花费1亿至2亿美元,”一名曾在得州初选期间就对帕克斯顿表示担忧的得州共和党战略家说道。

“如果我们保住了得州参议院席位,但却因为把钱投在这里而输掉了阿拉斯加、缅因、北卡罗来纳、爱荷华和俄亥俄的参议院选举,那么事后的指责声将会非常惨烈,”他们补充道。

但得州此前也曾出现势均力敌的参议院竞选,民主党人的希望最终在投票箱前破灭。八年前,特朗普是特德·克鲁兹的关键助选嘉宾,当时克鲁兹面对的是当时崭露头角的民主党明星贝托·奥罗克。克鲁兹当年并未背负帕克斯顿如今的这些个人负面包袱,最终仅以2.6个百分点的优势险胜。

这也引发了一场辩论:今年这场势均力敌的竞选,在多大程度上反映了候选人的对决,又在多大程度上反映了全国选情环境和不受欢迎的总统因素。

“如果帕克斯顿是个普通人,他或许还能勉强胜出。我的意思是,该州在结构上仍是保守派占优,”一名华盛顿特区的共和党幕僚说道。

而今年这场竞选的 stakes 可能不止于2027年的参议院控制权;它还可能对2028年及以后的选举产生连锁影响。

一名得州共和党幕僚将塔拉里科若获胜的局面比作“大坝上的一个漏洞”,这可能会给民主党带来势头,将得州在总统选举层面转变为蓝色州。

帕克斯顿似乎也意识到了这场竞选的重要性。

“如果我们输掉得州,我们就会输掉美国,”他在宣布周三集会的社交媒体帖子中说道。

Trump makes third trip to Texas in less than a month despite Paxton audio leaks

2026-10-07T18:59:41.030Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/07/politics/trump-texas-ken-paxton

San Antonio—

President Donald Trump is making his third trip to Texas in less than a month to stump for a Senate candidate who’s privately questioned his political capital and whom the president has publicly insulted in personal terms.

Such is the final sprint to the November 3 midterm elections as the GOP faces an increasingly uphill battle to hold on to the Senate, with the path to the majority running through Texas.

Republicans are pouring millions into bolstering state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who polls have shown is facing a closer-than-expected race against Democrat James Talarico in a state Trump carried by more than 13 points in 2024 and that hasn’t elected any Democrats statewide since 1994.

Trump’s Wednesday appearance in San Antonio, one Texas GOP strategist said, will be closely watched for whether it can improve Paxton’s standing — which could determine continued investment in the state.

The president’s latest Texas trip — which comes less than a week after his last stop here — is part of an aggressive midterm travel blitz that has taken him to traditional red strongholds he overwhelmingly won two years ago, including Alabama, Oklahoma and Nebraska. The president has repeatedly told his rally crowds to “pretend” he’s on the ballot this fall, and his advisers believe their best hope for November is boosting base turnout.

But some Republicans, even in these red states, are looking for distance from the unpopular president. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott will not be at Trump’s Wednesday evening rally, citing scheduling conflicts. He skipped last week’s Trump appearance too.

“It’s pretty clear to me the Paxton team has made the calculation that they believe it’s absolutely worth it,” the Texas GOP strategist said.

But as Trump arrives Wednesday, Paxton is also making headlines for seeming to blame the president and some of his agenda for his struggles.

The GOP nominee told a group of donors and lobbyists last month that the Iran war and high gas prices are hurting his campaign, according to audio obtained by Axios on Wednesday. “I don’t make the decisions, and I don’t … know what’s behind some of the decisions,” he said, according to Axios. CNN has not independently verified the audio.

Paxton’s campaign dismissed the story. “The Attorney General said what every Texan already knows: gas and diesel prices are too high, and hardworking Texans are struggling at the pump and at the grocery store,” spokeswoman Madison Cercy told CNN in a statement, adding that Trump “is doing everything he can to bring prices down.”

But that followed The New York Times last week publishing audio of Paxton complaining that Trump’s midterm convention, held last month in Dallas, wasn’t helpful.

“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers,” the Texas attorney general said. In a statement to CNN, Paxton senior adviser Nick Maddux called the Times story “manipulated nonsense” to “create a story that doesn’t exist.”

Paxton has been plagued by his own set of scandals, including securities fraud charges, which ended in a pre-trial agreement; allegations of infidelity; and a 2023 impeachment in the state House (the Senate acquitted him). But that baggage didn’t stop Trump from backing Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff earlier this year.

Their relationship, however, has appeared fraught, even as Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Wednesday that he has no regrets about backing Paxton.

At a stop in Denton, Texas, last week, the president called Paxton “one of the most loyal people” — but also “a pain in the ass sometimes.”

Then there’s his frequent ribbing of the state attorney general’s appearance.

“Some may not like the way he dresses,” Trump said during a speech at the Dallas convention: “I don’t.”

Will Trump repeat that refrain Wednesday night?

The president “understands how important Texas is to efforts to try to keep the Senate in Republican control, so I think he can put all that aside and probably focus on the bigger picture,” said one Texas GOP operative unaffiliated with the Paxton campaign, granted anonymity to speak freely.

“But I’m sure he enjoys making Paxton squirm at the same time,” the operative added.

CNN has reached out to Paxton’s campaign about Trump’s latest visit.

Paxton’s comments reported by the Times underscore how the president’s unpopularity — his approval rating is 34% in the latest CNN Poll of Polls — may make him an unwelcome guest for some candidates.

And he is losing support among a group that helped propel him to victory in 2024. His approval rating among Latino voters was just 27%, according to a NBC News/Telemundo poll earlier this week. Trump may be looking to turn that tide with his visit to San Antonio, where the population is 64.6% Hispanic or Latino.

But that visit, the Texas Republican strategist said, comes with its own risk.

“Why go where you can potentially motivate the other side, rather than going to places like Lubbock or Amarillo or East Texas, where you can try to use that brand to actually motivate, you know, the type of voter that needs to turn out for Paxton to win?” the strategist said.

And Democrats see Trump’s return to Texas as a good sign for their side.

“If you have to pull in Donald Trump four times in the closing stretch of the campaign in Texas, then you have given up on independent voters. This is a loss mitigation strategy,” said one Texas Democratic operative.

The Senate race — and the GOP primary and runoff leading up to it — is already on track to be one of the nation’s most expensive.

The GOP-aligned bill in Texas is expected to exceed $300 million, with the party and its affiliated groups outspending Democrats by more than 5-to-1, CNN has previously reported. Since the end of the GOP runoff in late May, Republicans have spent $158 million on ads, with an additional $38 million in upcoming ad reservations, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact. Democrats, meanwhile, have spent about half that: $75 million on ads between late May and Tuesday, with $6 million reserved.

But that level of spending in deep-red Texas comes with consequences for the rest of the Senate map.

“A lot of us are very disappointed that our predictions have proven correct, and it’s going to cost somewhere between $100 and 200 million to save Ken Paxton as the Senate nominee,” said a Texas GOP strategist who had raised concerns about Paxton during the state’s primary.

“If we save Ken and lose the Senate majority because we’ve lost Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio, the Monday morning quarterbacking is going to be biblical,” they added.

But Texas has seen close Senate races before, with Democrats’ hopes dashed at the ballot box. Eight years ago, Trump was a key surrogate for Ted Cruz when the senator faced then-rising Democratic star Beto O’Rourke. Cruz, unencumbered by the personal baggage Paxton is carrying this year, won his race by just 2.6 points.

That’s led to a debate about how much of this year’s close race is a reflection of the candidate matchup or the national environment and an unpopular president.

“If Paxton was a normal person, he probably would still eke it out. I mean, the state’s still structurally conservative,” said one DC-based GOP operative.

And the stakes of this year’s race could be bigger than just control of the Senate in 2027; it could carry ramifications for 2028 and beyond.

The Texas Republican operative compared a potential Talarico win to a “hole in the dam” that could give Democrats momentum to turn the state blue at the presidential level.

Paxton appears to recognize the stakes.

“If we lose Texas, we lose America,” he said in a social media post announcing Wednesday’s rally.

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