2026-10-06T18:48:45.613Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/politics/trump-republicans-midterms-panic
共和党担心2026年中期选举的情绪已经持续了一段时间。
但越来越多的迹象表明，他们的担忧正在演变为恐慌——包括总统唐纳德·特朗普在内的共和党人已经感觉到情况可能会变得非常糟糕。
这并不意味着局势一定会朝这个方向发展。历史上也不乏政党在竞选后期过度恐慌的例子。
但特朗普时代的共和党总体上一直是相当乐观的政党，而近几日和几周来的表现却截然不同。
特朗普一直坚称共和党会表现出色，并称许多持相反观点的民调结果是错误的。但他的行动却越来越指向另一个方向：
- 周一，他罕见地彻底推翻了此前极具争议的政府资助政治广告计划，称这些广告现在将由超级政治行动委员会（super PAC）出资。
- 上周末，他开始鼓励共和党人邮寄投票，而此前他曾声称邮寄投票充斥着欺诈行为。
- 他多次大发雷霆，包括上周在《时代》周刊采访中使用脏话，周一还在接受CNN记者采访时愤怒地为自己的民调数据辩护。
- 他开始将共和党面临的问题归咎于糟糕的信息传播（但并未提及自己）。
- 他先后在多个深红州开展竞选活动：阿拉巴马州（2024年他以31个百分点的优势获胜）、俄克拉荷马州（特朗普领先34个百分点）以及内布拉斯加州（特朗普领先20个百分点）——他于周一到访了内布拉斯加州。
- 而在周一晚间，他攻击了另一个本不应成为竞选焦点的州的民主党参议院候选人：南卡罗来纳州（特朗普领先18个百分点）。他使用反变性人 slur 攻击民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯，后者正在挑战参议员达琳·格雷厄姆——这位参议员是由特朗普提名任命的——并且这场竞选的激烈程度超出了预期。
共和党原本就需要在五个特朗普以11至16个百分点优势获胜的州采取守势，最新加入的是堪萨斯州——这个州两年前特朗普以16个百分点的优势获胜，且自1932年以来从未选出过民主党参议员。
但将内布拉斯加州，尤其是南卡罗来纳州纳入需要防守的名单，这一点尤其令人警觉。
如果你认为特朗普针对南卡罗来纳州的言论并非刻意为之，那么共和党正向南卡罗来纳州（即“棕榈州”）拨款500万美元以支持格雷厄姆。特朗普的盟友也告诉CNN，他们对这位参议员的民调结果感到担忧。
最能说明共和党整体恐慌的迹象之一是什么？共和党人被迫在这些红色州与特朗普保持距离——无论是呼吁结束伊朗战争，修改官网删除提及总统的内容，还是拒绝与特朗普共同竞选。
周一，《休斯顿纪事报》报道称，得克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特不会在特朗普本周访问圣安东尼奥时与其一同亮相。阿博特的竞选团队将此归咎于日程冲突，但在过去，共和党候选人绝不会错过这类活动，尤其是在红色州。
事实上，共和党的许多最糟糕的迹象都来自得克萨斯州。
参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿的 estranged 妻子（曾指控他不忠）发布了一则尴尬的广告，鼓励人们投票给共和党。还有泄露的音频片段显示，帕克斯顿在抱怨特朗普和全国共和党损害了他的竞选活动。周一，共和党州议员布里斯科·凯恩在X平台上发帖称：“如果明天就举行选举，所有全州范围的竞选都会落入民主党手中。”
需要强调的是，这一情况有多惊人：自1994年以来，民主党从未在得克萨斯州赢得过任何全州范围的选举。而发表这番言论的并非温和派共和党人，而是曾协助特朗普推翻2020年选举结果的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）派议员。
这一切并不意味着共和党注定失败。尽管民调中有足够多的迹象让共和党感到担忧，但民主党要获得参议院多数席位，仍需拿下那些特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州。这是一个很高的门槛。
而且，我们之前见过各政党在选后期为那些原本并不激烈的次级竞选投入资金的情况。2020年，民主党曾在堪萨斯州投入大量资金，共和党则向南卡罗来纳州拨款支持；最终共和党分别以11和10个百分点的优势赢得了这两个州。就连一些民主党人对今年在南卡罗来纳州的胜算也相当谨慎。
但在11月3日选举前日益加剧的绝望情绪，意味着对共和党来说，接下来的四周可能会十分漫长。
The biggest signs that Trump and the GOP are panicking about the midterms
2026-10-06T18:48:45.613Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/politics/trump-republicans-midterms-panic
Republicans have had reason to worry about the 2026 midterm elections for a while now.
But there are growing signs that their fears are spilling over into panic — and that the GOP, including President Donald Trump, senses things could get really bad.
That doesn’t mean things will turn out that way. And there are plenty of examples of parties overzealously slamming the panic button late in the campaign.
But the Trump-era GOP has generally been a rather sanguine political party, and what we’ve seen in recent days and weeks is anything but.
Trump has insisted Republicans will do well and that the many polls suggesting otherwise are wrong. But his actions increasingly point in a different direction:
- On Monday, he pulled a rare 180 on his highly controversial government-funded political ads, saying they would now be paid for with super PAC funds.
- Over the weekend, he started encouraging Republicans to vote by mail, after previously claiming that method was riddled with fraud.
- He’s repeatedly lashed out, including dropping the f-word on a Time magazine interviewer last week and angrily defending his poll numbers to a CNN reporter on Monday.
- He has taken to blaming the GOP’s problems on poor messaging (although not from himself).
- He’s spent time campaigning in a series of very red states: Alabama (which he won by 31 points in 2024), Oklahoma (Trump +34) and Nebraska (Trump +20) — the last of which he visited on Monday.
- And on Monday night, he attacked the Democratic Senate nominee in another state that shouldn’t be on the map: South Carolina (Trump +18). He used an anti-transgender slur to go after Democrat Annie Andrews, who’s giving Sen. Darline Graham — whose appointment Trump pushed for — a tougher-than-expected race.
The GOP was already playing defense in five states Trump won by between 11 and 16 points, with the most recent addition being Kansas — a state Trump won by 16 points two years ago and that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
But adding Nebraska and especially South Carolina to the mix is particularly striking.
And in case you thought Trump’s comments about South Carolina weren’t strategic, the GOP is sending $5 million to the Palmetto State to shore up Graham. Trump allies have also told CNN they are worried about the senator’s polling.
One of the most telling signs of broader GOP panic? Republicans feeling compelled to distance themselves from Trump even in these red areas — whether calling for an end to the Iran war, overhauling their websites to erase mentions of the president, or declining to campaign with Trump.
On Monday, the Houston Chronicle reported that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott won’t appear with Trump when the president visits San Antonio this week. Abbott’s campaign blamed scheduling conflicts, but these are the kinds of events GOP candidates would never have missed once upon a time, especially in a red state.
And indeed, many of the worst signs for the GOP are emanating from Texas.
There’s the awkward ad from Senate nominee Ken Paxton’s estranged wife (who has accused him of infidelity) in which she encourages people to vote Republican. There are the leaked audio clips in which Paxton is heard complaining about Trump and the national GOP hurting his campaign. And on Monday, GOP state Rep. Briscoe Cain posted on X: “If the election were held tomorrow, all state wide races go blue.”
Just to underscore how stunning that would be, Democrats haven’t won any statewide race in Texas since 1994. And this isn’t some moderate Republican spouting off; this is a MAGA lawmaker who tried to help overturn the results of the 2020 election for Trump.
None of this means the GOP is doomed. While there are enough signs in the polling to cause the party to worry, Democrats’ path to the Senate majority still goes through those double-digit Trump states. That’s a high bar to clear.
And, we’ve seen before how parties can spend late money in lower-tier races that don’t wind up being particularly close. Back in 2020, Democrats spent some real money in Kansas, and the GOP sent money to bolster South Carolina; Republicans wound up winning those states by 11 and 10 points, respectively. Even some Democrats are pretty circumspect about their chances in South Carolina this year.
But the increased desperation ahead of November 3 means it could be a long four weeks for the GOP.
发表回复