2026年10月4日 美国东部时间早上7:00 / 福克斯新闻
专家表示，长期以来，伊朗一直通过代理人和可否认袭击来威胁对手，同时避免引发常规战争。
作者：摩根·菲利普斯
这起迪拜航空航班袭击事件加剧了人们的担忧：随着与美国和以色列的冲突持续，伊朗可能会增加隐蔽性和可否认性袭击的频率。
与此同时，英国首相安迪·伯纳姆表示，有“明确迹象”表明伊朗参与了英国皇家空军费尔福德基地附近的一起疑似恐怖袭击阴谋。该基地是美军在针对伊朗的行动中使用的英国空军基地。反恐警察随后逮捕了一名拥有英国和伊朗双重国籍的男子，指控其涉嫌准备恐怖主义行为。
这两起疑似袭击事件引发了人们的疑问：伊朗的战争战略是否正在发生转变？但专家告诫称，不应将这两起事件同等视为伊朗参与的证据，也不能就此认定德黑兰已经改变了其战术。
迪拜航空航班飞行员展现了“最高形式的勇气”，印度总理称
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他掌握的初步信息显示，伊朗可能与这起飞往以色列的迪拜航空航班袭击事件有关。据悉，一名副机长刺伤了机长，并试图坠毁这架载有180多名乘客的飞机。
阿拉伯联合酋长国和以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡均将迪拜航空事件定性为恐怖主义，但阿联酋当局并未公开将此次袭击归咎于伊朗。两项调查均未公开证实伊朗政府指挥了这两起袭击，伊朗也否认参与了费尔福德基地的相关案件。
战略与国际研究中心战争、非常规威胁与恐怖主义项目主任丹尼尔·拜曼表示，费尔福德基地案件更符合伊朗近期雇佣特工和其他中间人的行事风格。
“英国空军基地的袭击确实更符合近期的模式，”拜曼告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，同时他强调，调查仍有大量未知之处。
卢比奥证实英国恐怖袭击阴谋涉及“外国势力”
迪拜航空航班袭击事件则是一个更重大的背离。
“这完全不同，而伊朗过去至少从未有过类似举动，”拜曼说，“伊朗参与其中是合理的，但根据伊朗传统的行事方式，这似乎牵强得多。”
但围绕这两起袭击的不确定性，也凸显了伊朗数十年来推行的整体战略的部分吸引力：利用代理人、秘密特工、犯罪网络和其他中间力量，在其边境之外威胁对手，同时让德黑兰自身的角色更难被证实。
马修·莱维特曾是美国财政部和联邦调查局的反恐官员，现任华盛顿研究所反恐与情报莱因哈德项目主任。他表示，伊朗越来越寻求将自身与执行海外行动的人员拉开更大距离。
“通常情况下，伊朗不会承认参与这类袭击，因为它希望拥有合理的可否认性，”莱维特说。
“伊朗使用恐怖主义有多重好处，”拜曼说，“其一，往往能在一定程度上保留可否认性。”
“恐怖主义让伊朗的影响力范围大大扩展，”他补充道。不过莱维特对其与常规战争的区别说得更为直白。
“如果伊朗向你发射无人机或导弹，你知道袭击来自哪里，也知道该如何反击，”他说，“但如果伊朗使用代理人，招募人员并以隐蔽方式行事，那么就很难将矛头指向伊朗，也无法确切知道究竟是谁实施了袭击。”
莱维特表示，这种能力之所以重要，部分原因在于伊朗没有足够的常规军事力量直接与美国及其盟友抗衡。
“他们根本没有能力进行全面的热战，面对面交战、空战，但如果这最终被证实是恐怖主义活动，那么他们在不对称战争、隐蔽恐怖主义行动方面极为高效，”他说。
英国空军基地恐怖袭击嫌疑人被保释，伊朗否认关联
近期的美国起诉案件展示了这一行动模式的延伸范围。联邦案件指控伊朗特工寻求招募杀手暗杀美国官员，并利用东欧有组织犯罪团伙实施雇凶杀人阴谋，目标是纽约的伊朗裔美国记者和异见人士马西赫·阿里内贾德。
这些行动依赖于同样的核心优势：德黑兰可以在海外追逐目标，而不会发动会立即将伊朗定性为侵略者的常规袭击。
伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希基安2026年5月在德黑兰举行的公共关系官员集会上发表讲话。(福阿德·阿什塔里/SOPA图片/盖蒂图片社光明组供稿)
现在的问题是，当前的冲突是否让伊朗有理由进一步推行这一战略。
莱维特表示，德黑兰可能会策划海外阴谋，以证明伊朗能够在常规战场之外施加代价，从而迫使西方政府结束冲突。
他说，如果费尔福德和迪拜航空事件最终与德黑兰有关联，那么这两起事件将显得与众不同，因为与伊朗在海外更常见的暗杀、绑架、枪击和小规模爆炸袭击相比，它们的目标更难突破，战术也可能更具野心。
“或许这将成为新常态，伊朗想要证明它能够造成更高的代价，”莱维特说。
不过拜曼指出了德黑兰可能保持克制的几个原因。
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他表示，伊朗已经有其他方式向华盛顿及其盟友施压，而针对美国人的恐怖袭击可能会适得其反，因为这会让美国公众团结起来，进一步升级对德黑兰的打击。美国和以色列针对伊朗高级情报和安全官员的袭击，也可能破坏了德黑兰开展海外行动所需的部分网络。
“如果伊朗想要采取进一步行动，那么恐怖主义确实会成为一个更可行的选项，”拜曼说。
Iran could move shadow war in a dangerous direction, experts warn on back of two possible terror attacks
October 4, 2026 7:00am EDT / Fox News
Experts say Tehran has long used proxies and deniable attacks to threaten adversaries without triggering conventional war
By Morgan Phillips
The FlyDubai stabbing is contributing to concerns that Iran could increase covert and deniable attacks as the conflict with the United States and Israel drags on.
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, meanwhile, said there are “strong indications” Iran played a role in a suspected terror plot near RAF Fairford, the British air base used by U.S. forces during operations against Iran. Counterterrorism police have since arrested a dual UK-Iranian national on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
The two suspected attacks are raising questions over whether Iran’s war strategy is shifting, but experts caution not to treat the incidents as equally indicative of Iranian involvement — or evidence yet that Tehran has changed its tactics.
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President Donald Trump said early information he has received points to a possible Iranian connection to the attack aboard an Israel-bound FlyDubai flight, where a co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain and attempted to crash the aircraft with more than 180 people aboard.
A FlyDubai aircraft carrying Israelis who experienced an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia is seen parked at Ben Gurion International Airport, near Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026.(Ariel Schalit/AP)
The United Arab Emirates and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have described the FlyDubai incident as terrorism, but UAE authorities have not publicly attributed the attack to Iran. Neither investigation has publicly established that the Iranian government directed the attacks, and Iran has denied involvement in the Fairford case.
Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Fairford case fits more closely with Iran’s recent use of hired operatives and other intermediaries.
“The attack on the airbase in the United Kingdom does fit more recent patterns,” Byman told Fox News Digital, while stressing how much remains unknown about the investigation.
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The FlyDubai attack would be a more significant departure.
“That is quite different, and that is something that Iran in the past, at least we haven’t seen Iran do,” Byman said. “It is plausible to me that Iran is involved, but that seems like much more of a stretch based on Iran’s traditional way of operating.”
But the uncertainty surrounding the attacks also illustrates part of the appeal of the broader strategy Iran has spent decades developing: using proxies, covert operatives, criminal networks and other intermediaries to threaten adversaries far beyond its borders while making Tehran’s own role more difficult to establish.
Matthew Levitt, a former Treasury and FBI counterterrorism official who now directs the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute, said Iran has increasingly sought to put more distance between itself and the people carrying out overseas operations.
“Typically Iran does not admit that it’s involved in these types of attacks because it wants reasonable deniability,” Levitt said.
Police guard a road leading to RAF Fairford in Fairford, England, on Monday, Sept. 28, 2026.(AP Photo/Alastair Grant)
“There are several advantages for Iran to using terrorism,” Byman said. “One is that there is often a degree of deniability.”
“Terrorism gives Iran a lot more reach,” he added. Levitt, however, put the distinction with conventional warfare more bluntly.
“If Iran shoots a drone or a missile at you, you know where it came from and you know where to shoot back,” he said. “But if Iran uses proxies, and recruits people and does things in a covert manner, it might not be so easy to point a finger back at Iran or to know exactly who did it.”
That capability matters in part because Iran does not have the conventional military strength to match the United States and its allies directly, Levitt said.
“They just don’t have the capability to fight soldier to soldier, airplane to airplane in an all-out kinetic war, but they’re extremely effective at asymmetric warfare, at covert terrorist activity, if that’s what this proves to be,” he said.
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Recent U.S. prosecutions have shown how far that playbook can extend. Federal cases have accused Iranian operatives of seeking to recruit hitmen to kill U.S. officials and using Eastern European organized crime figures in a murder-for-hire plot targeting Iranian-American journalist and dissident Masih Alinejad in New York.
Those operations relied on the same basic advantage: Tehran could pursue targets overseas without launching a conventional attack that immediately identified Iran as the aggressor.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaks during a gathering of public relations officials in Tehran in May, 2026.(Foad Ashtari/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
The question now is whether the current conflict gives Iran reason to push that strategy further.
Levitt said Tehran could pursue overseas plots in an effort to pressure Western governments to end the conflict by demonstrating that Iran can impose costs far beyond the conventional battlefield.
And if Fairford and FlyDubai are ultimately tied to Tehran, he said, they would stand out because they involve harder targets and potentially more ambitious tactics than the assassinations, kidnappings, shootings and smaller-scale bombings Iran has more commonly pursued overseas.
“Perhaps this is the new normal, and Iran wants to demonstrate that it can exact a higher cost,” Levitt said.
Byman, however, pointed to several reasons Tehran could exercise restraint.
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Iran already has other ways to pressure Washington and its allies, while a terrorist attack against Americans could backfire by uniting U.S. public opinion behind further escalation against Tehran, he said. U.S. and Israeli strikes against senior Iranian intelligence and security officials may also have disrupted some of the networks Tehran would need for overseas operations.
“If Iran wants to go further, then terrorism does become more of an option,” Byman said.
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