这场竞选的关键在于欣森能稳住多少共和党基本盘
2026年10月1日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：达娜·布兰顿，福克斯新闻
爱荷华州联邦众议员、共和党人阿什利·欣森做客《美国报道》节目，探讨通胀和生活成本上涨如何影响该州备受关注的参议院竞选。
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经济担忧与党派忠诚度是塑造爱荷华州联邦参议院竞选的关键因素。
福克斯新闻对爱荷华州可能投票选民的 statewide 民调显示，民主党人乔希·图雷克以49%对47%的微弱优势领先共和党人阿什利·欣森，差距在误差范围内。
在登记选民中，图雷克以50%对46%领先4个百分点，这同样处于抽样误差范围内，且自6月以来未发生变化。
以下分析基于可能投票选民的结果。
民主党人对州众议员图雷克的支持率（96%）高于共和党人对现任国会女议员欣森的支持率（87%）。无党派选民以二比一的比例支持图雷克，还有10%的共和党人支持他。爱荷华州的党派结构让这场竞选势均力敌，因为认同自己为共和党人的选民多于民主党人。
福克斯新闻民调：密歇根选民在赛义德与罗杰斯之间分歧
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爱荷华州选民对参议院控制权的看法存在分歧：49%的人希望民主党掌控参议院，48%的人支持共和党。这一比例与参议院竞选的支持率几乎相当，两位候选人的得票率都接近各自政党的上限。
图雷克在女性选民中领先11个百分点，在郊区选民中领先16个百分点，在大学学历选民中领先17个百分点，在无党派选民中领先32个百分点。
欣森在男性选民中领先7个百分点，在非大学学历选民中领先6个百分点，在农村选民中领先14个百分点，在白人福音派基督徒中领先41个百分点。
经济压力对竞选产生影响。在2024年福克斯新闻选民分析中，十分之三的爱荷华州民众表示其家庭经济状况正在恶化。如今这一比例已升至十分之四，这些选民以38个百分点的优势支持图雷克。与此同时，经济状况保持稳定（占比45%）和有所改善（占比13%）的选民则支持欣森，分别领先14和53个百分点。
福克斯新闻民调：选民质疑人工智能的承诺是否大于其风险
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此外，十分之六的选民表示，生活成本将对他们的参议院投票决策产生极为重要的影响。这一比例超过了其他首要议题，如唐纳德·特朗普总统（43%认为极为重要）、移民（39%认为极为重要）和人工智能技术（27%认为极为重要）。
在认为生活成本、特朗普和人工智能技术对投票极为重要的选民中，图雷克占据优势；而将移民列为首要议题的选民则支持欣森。
特朗普在2024年大选中以近56%的得票率赢得爱荷华州。如今，多达57%的爱荷华州选民不认可他作为总统的履职表现，而认可他表现的选民仅占42%。
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总统的支持率只是欣森面临的挑战之一。虽然42%的选民对她持正面看法，但50%的人对她评价负面，其中近十分之四的人“非常”反感。相比之下，图雷克的支持率为净正面：48%的正面评价对40%的负面评价（24%“非常”反感）。
有9个百分点的更多选民担心欣森与特朗普走得太近，而不是担心图雷克的观点过于自由化（52%对43%）。在“极为”担心这一问题的选民中，这一差距扩大到14个百分点：36%的人认为欣森与特朗普绑定过深，而22%的人认为图雷克过于自由化。
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更多图雷克的支持者明确表示会坚定支持他：88%的人表示会坚定支持他，而欣森的这一比例为77%。表示可能改变主意的欣森支持者是图雷克的两倍（20%对10%）。
“近期历史和该州的党派结构表明，欣森有可能胜出，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同负责福克斯新闻民调项目。“但警示信号十分明显：爱荷华州的共和党人似乎态度摇摆，无党派选民更支持图雷克，就连她的支持者也表示不确定。”
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爱荷华州已有18年未选出民主党参议员（上一次是汤姆·哈金参议员赢得其最后一个任期），且已有20年未选出民主党州长。
在爱荷华州州长竞选中，民主党人罗布·桑德在可能投票选民中以53%对44%的优势领先共和党人扎克·拉恩。自6月以来，这场竞选的态势一直保持稳定。
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桑德的领先不仅得益于获得了近97%的民主党人支持，还获得了14%的共和党人和66%的无党派选民支持（拉恩获得16%的无党派选民支持）。此外，有11%支持欣森参选参议员的选民转而支持桑德竞选州长。
本次民调于2026年9月24日至28日进行，由Beacon Research（民主党团队）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党团队）联合指导，福克斯新闻民调共采访了1204名爱荷华州登记选民，样本从全州选民档案中随机抽取。受访者通过固定电话（183人）、手机（733人）或在收到短信后在线完成调查（288人）。登记选民样本的抽样误差范围为±2.5个百分点，1008名可能投票选民的子样本误差范围为±3个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。人口加权目标的制定依据包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口结构与登记选民群体具有代表性。可能投票选民是基于概率统计模型得出的，该模型参考了过往投票记录、对当前选举的兴趣、投票意向、年龄、教育程度、种族、民族和婚姻状况。仅当样本量至少达到100时，才会展示子群体的调查结果。
福克斯新闻的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报告做出了贡献。
作为民调部门负责人，达娜·布兰顿负责运营福克斯新闻民调项目，并监督福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查。
Fox News Poll: Turek, Hinson in close Iowa Senate race
The contest hinges on how much of the GOP base Hinson can hold
October 1, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
By Dana Blanton, Fox News
Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, joins ‘America Reports’ to discuss how inflation and the rising cost of living are shaping the state’s closely watched Senate race.
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Economic concerns and party loyalty are key factors shaping Iowa’s U.S. Senate matchup.
A Fox News statewide survey of Iowa likely voters finds Democrat Josh Turek with a two-point edge over Republican Ashley Hinson, 49% to 47%, well within the margin of error.
Among registered voters, Turek is ahead by 4 points, 50% to 46%. That also falls within the range of sampling error and has been unchanged since June.
The analysis below is based on likely voter results.
Democrats are more unified behind state representative Turek (96%) than Republicans are of current Congresswoman Hinson (87%). Independents favor Turek by two-to-one, and 10% of Republicans back him. It’s Iowa’s partisan structure that keeps the race tight, as more voters identify as Republicans than Democrats.
FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS
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Iowa voters are split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer Democratic control and 48% favor Republican. With those numbers nearly matching the Senate matchup, both candidates are performing close to their party’s ceiling.
Turek is preferred by 11 points among women, 16 points in the suburbs, 17 points among voters with a college degree, and 32 points among independents.
Hinson is up by 7 points among men, 6 points among those without a college degree, 14 points among rural voters, and 41 points among White evangelical Christians.
Economic pressure influences the contest. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 3 in 10 Iowans described their families as falling behind financially. That share has risen to 4 in 10 today, and they back Turek by a 38-point margin. Meanwhile, those holding steady (45%) and getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson (by 14 and 53 points respectively).
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS QUESTION WHETHER AI’S PROMISE OUTWEIGHS ITS RISKS
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In addition, 6 in 10 say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote decision. That outpaces other top issues, like President Donald Trump (43% extremely), immigration (39% extremely), and AI technology (27% extremely).
Turek has the advantage among voters who say the cost of living, Trump, and AI technology are each extremely important to their vote, while voters prioritizing immigration favor Hinson.
Trump won Iowa with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024. Today, that’s how many Iowa voters disapprove of his job performance as president (57%), while far fewer, 42%, approve.
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The president’s ratings are only part of Hinson’s challenge. While 42% view her positively, 50% have an unfavorable view, including nearly 4 in 10 who are “strongly” unfavorable. In contrast, Turek’s ratings are net positive: 48% favorable to 40% unfavorable (24% “strongly” unfavorable).
By a 9-point margin, more voters are concerned Hinson is too close to Trump than are worried Turek’s views are too liberal (52% vs. 43%). Among those “extremely” concerned, that gap widens to 14 points: 36% say Hinson is too tied to Trump, while 22% say Turek is too liberal.
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More of Turek’s backers are certain of their choice: 88% are committed to him compared to 77% for Hinson. Twice as many Hinson supporters say they might change their mind (20% vs. 10%).
“Recent history and the state’s partisan makeup suggest Hinson can pull this out,” says GOP pollster Daron Shaw, who works on the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But the warning signs are clear: Iowa Republicans seem ambivalent, independents prefer Turek, and even her supporters say they aren’t sure.”
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Iowa hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 18 years (when Sen. Tom Harkin won his final term), and it’s been 20 years since they elected a Democrat as governor.
In the Iowa governor’s contest, Democrat Rob Sand outperforms Republican Zach Lahn among likely voters by 53-44%. The race has been steady since June.
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Sand’s lead comes not only from getting the support of nearly all Democrats (97%), but also 14% of Republicans and 66% of independents (vs. 16% of independents for Lahn). Plus, 11% of voters backing Hinson for Senate switched parties to support Sand for governor.
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,204 Iowa registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (183) and cellphones (733) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (288). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,008 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
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