2026-09-29T09:00:29.572Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/29/politics/ken-paxton-republican-spending-texas-senate
在《法官朱迪》节目中投放广告，能挽救深陷困境的肯·帕克斯顿在得州的参议院竞选吗？
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）一项全新的电视广告分析显示，仅在9月，一则宣传帕克斯顿的广告就在这档热门法庭节目中播出了258次——这只是共和党为击败民主党对手詹姆斯·塔拉里科所付出的巨大努力的一个缩影。
从9月初到选举日，支持共和党的团体计划斥资1.66亿美元助力这位得州总检察长，这一数额超过了他们在密歇根州（8300万美元）和缅因州（6100万美元）这两场有竞争力的参议院竞选的总投入。
得州的参议院竞选已然成为共和党人的“烧钱陷阱”，尤其是在多个共和党团体斥巨资在初选中试图扳倒帕克斯顿之后。总体而言，支持共和党的各方在这个孤星之州的总开支预计将超过3亿美元。
CNN的分析显示，这场秋季的巨额广告投入，仅次于俄亥俄州的共和党盟友计划支出，目前仅次于俄亥俄州——该州共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德正试图阻止前参议员谢罗德·布朗的复出竞选。
得州的广告投入本身就足够引人注目：这个共和党已主导数十年的州，正日益被民主党视作可以争取的摇摆州。但此番大手笔投入恰逢共和党面临历史性的中期选举逆风，且其领导人的支持率深陷泥潭——本月CNN的一项最新民调显示，该总统的支持率仅为33%。
这让共和党在整个竞选地图上捉襟见肘，为民主党在一些关键摇摆州打开了突破口。这也引发了外界对共和党在初选中跳过现任参议员约翰·科宁、提名帕克斯顿的新一轮质疑。
曾在初选中支持科宁的得州共和党众议员迈克尔·麦考尔称，这笔开支是必要的。
“我认为我们正看到选情下滑。总统候选人对下议院候选人没有帮助，”麦考尔告诉CNN，“如今我们提名的候选人有可能——甚至很有可能——让我们丢掉这个席位。所以我认为，得州方面现在发出了一些严峻的警告：我们需要援助以保住这个共和党席位。”
共和党外部开支的绝大部分来自得州政治行动委员会（Texas PAC），该团体隶属于参议院领导基金——参议院竞选中规模最大的共和党超级政治行动委员会。
当被问及在得州的大手笔投入是否合理使用参议院领导基金的作战资金时，资深共和党战略家卡尔·罗夫周六给出了直截了当的回应。
“不，但他们必须这么做，而这仅仅是开始，”罗夫在奥斯汀举行的得州论坛节上表示，“这笔钱足以支撑到9月底。如果约翰·科宁是候选人，这场竞选早就结束了。”
参议院领导基金执行主任亚历克斯·拉查姆在一份声明中告诉CNN，他们在得州的投资“证实了我们维护共和党多数席位、击败詹姆斯·塔拉里科这类极左翼自由主义者的决心”。该组织的一名官员表示，他们在得州的投入是“专属”的，不会影响在其他州的竞选投资。
帕克斯顿的竞选团队未回应置评请求。
共和党正动用压倒性力量压制得州民主党：在竞选的最后两个月，支持共和党的团体计划以超过5比1的开支优势碾压民主党对手，即1.66亿美元对3200万美元。
观看大学橄榄球比赛时，共和党在广告上的优势便一目了然。CNN的分析显示，9月期间，帕克斯顿的顶级广告在大学橄榄球赛事中播出了413次，超过《法官朱迪》，成为政治广告最抢手的投放阵地。
支持帕克斯顿的得州政治行动委员会9月在大学橄榄球转播中投放了1300多则广告，花费超过200万美元。该组织还在《法官朱迪》节目中投放了750多则广告，花费约60万美元。
美国广播公司、哥伦比亚广播公司和全国广播公司的早间新闻节目是紧随其后的热门投放时段，《危险边缘》和《家庭问答》也紧随其后。
帕克斯顿及其盟友对塔拉里科展开了猛烈抨击，批评他的政策立场，并嘲讽他的进步派言论。
支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会MAGA Inc.的一则广告声称，“在税收问题上，肯·帕克斯顿是更好的选择”。得州政治行动委员会的一则广告则沿用了2024年特朗普竞选团队的口号，抨击塔拉里科在跨性别政策上的立场，称他“支持‘他们/她们’，而非你”。
共和党还斥巨资投放广告，试图重塑这位曾深陷多起争议的总检察长的形象。帕克斯顿的负面包袱包括2023年由得州共和党同僚发起的、针对其腐败指控的不成功弹劾——这一问题曾在初选中被试图阻止帕克斯顿的共和党团体反复提及。
其中一则广告称赞帕克斯顿作为州最高执法官员在打击人口贩运方面的努力：“检察官、父亲、总检察长，”广告中这样宣称。
民主党人迅速指出，作为超级政治行动委员会，得州政治行动委员会的广告投放费率高于塔拉里科的竞选团队。但即便如此，他们也承认这笔开支数额惊人。
“我们在得州从未见过这样的场面，”一名协助塔拉里科竞选的民主党幕僚说道。
据广告追踪机构AdImpact的数据，此次竞选的广告开支已远超2018年共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹与民主党对手、前众议员贝托·奥罗克对决时创下的5500万美元纪录。
距离选举还有五周时，帕克斯顿和塔拉里科在公开民调中仍不相上下。两名协助塔拉里科竞选的民主党幕僚表示，自共和党掀起大规模广告投放浪潮以来，他们的内部民调数据并未出现显著变化。
其中一名幕僚指出，与塔拉里科的竞选团队相比，得州政治行动委员会在广告上支付了“极其高昂的溢价”——有时甚至高达五倍，这源于超级政治行动委员会的更高费率。
例如，AdImpact的数据显示，在过去一周，得州政治行动委员会在达拉斯-沃斯堡媒体市场的本地广播电视广告开支上，比塔拉里科的竞选团队高出近4倍。但按观众影响力指标“总收视率点数”计算，差距仅不到一倍。
塔拉里科回应共和党加大广告投入的方式是投放一则广告，他在其中表示，“亿万富翁们斥巨资攻击我”，原因是他反对企业政治行动委员会的资金、国会股票交易和选区划分不公。截至本月，这则广告已获得价值超过400万美元的播出时长。在另一则广告中，塔拉里科回顾了自己的经历，并表示“我的信仰教导我要为邻居服务——这正是我在美国参议院将做的事”。
塔拉里科竞选团队9月的顶级广告频繁在早间新闻节目中播出。
《法官朱迪》节目中的相关广告也并非无人回应。一则称帕克斯顿为“得州最腐败的政客”的广告，9月期间在该法庭节目中播出了182次，作为对帕克斯顿广告的反制。
The Texas money pit: Republicans are spending big trying to save Ken Paxton’s Senate bid
2026-09-29T09:00:29.572Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/29/politics/ken-paxton-republican-spending-texas-senate
Could running ads during “Judge Judy” salvage Ken Paxton’s embattled Senate bid in Texas?
A new CNN analysis of TV advertising shows that a single commercial promoting Paxton aired 258 times during the hit courtroom program in September alone – a snapshot of the monumental effort to defeat James Talarico, Paxton’s Democratic rival.
From the start of September through Election Day, Republican-aligned groups are planning to spend $166 million to boost the Texas attorney general – more than they’re set to spend than on competitive Senate campaigns in Michigan, $83 million, and Maine, $61 million, combined.
The Senate contest in Texas has become a Republican money pit, particularly after a collection of GOP groups spent tens of millions of dollars trying to take Paxton down in the primary. All told, the total GOP-aligned bill in the Lone Star State is expected to exceed $300 million.
The massive fall outlay exceeds what Republican allies currently plan to spend in every other Senate battleground except Ohio, where GOP Sen. Jon Husted is trying to stop the comeback bid of former Sen. Sherrod Brown, CNN’s analysis shows.
The Texas ad spending is striking enough on its own, in a state that Republicans have dominated for decades but which Democrats have increasingly sought to make competitive. But it also comes when the Republican Party is confronting historic midterm headwinds and led by a president with an approval rating deeply underwater – at 33% in a new CNN poll this month.
That’s stretching Republicans thin across a competitive map, giving Democrats an opening in some key battlegrounds. And it’s led to new second-guessing about Republicans nominating Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
Rep. Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican who supported Cornyn in the primary, called the spending necessary.
“I think we are looking at the numbers going down. The top of the ticket is not helpful for down-ballot candidates,” McCaul told CNN. “Now we have a nominee that could – potentially – we could lose the seat over. So I think there is a bit of a dire warning now coming out of the state that we need help to keep that seat Republican.”
The lion’s share of the outside spending by the GOP has come from Texas PAC, a group affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican super PAC in Senate races.
The veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove responded bluntly Saturday when asked if the Texas splurge was a good use of the SLF’s war chest.
“No, but they’re going to have to do it, and that’s just the start,” said Rove, speaking at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. “That’s enough through the end of September. If John Cornyn were the nominee, this race would be over.”
The executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, Alex Latcham, told CNN in a statement that its investment in Texas “affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico.” An official with the group said its Texas spending is a “dedicated” effort that is not taking away from investments in other states.
Paxton’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Republicans are mounting a brute force effort to flatten Texas Democrats: For the final two months of the race, Republican-aligned groups are currently set to outspend Democratic counterparts by more than 5-to-1, $166 million to $32 million.
Watch a college football game and the Republican spending advantage comes alive. The top ad for Paxton played 413 times during college games in September, the CNN analysis shows, surpassing “Judge Judy” as the most coveted place for political advertising.
The pro-Paxton group Texas PAC spent over $2 million on more than 1,300 advertising spots during college football broadcasts in September. The group also spent about $600,000 on more than 750 “Judge Judy” airings.
The morning news programs on ABC, CBS and NBC are the next most sought-after programs, with “Jeopardy” and “Family Feud” following close behind.
Paxton and his allies have pummeled Talarico, criticizing his policy positions and mocking his progressive comments.
An ad from the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. argues that “when it comes to taxes, Ken Paxton’s the better choice.” An ad from Texas PAC repurposes a slogan from the 2024 Trump campaign, hitting Talarico over transgender policies and arguing that he’s for “for they/them, not you.”
Republicans have also put millions behind ads aimed at burnishing the reputation of an attorney general with a long history of controversies. That baggage – including an unsuccessful 2023 impeachment led by fellow Texas Republicans over corruption allegations – was highlighted by GOP groups trying to stop Paxton during the primary.
One such spot touts Paxton’s anti-trafficking efforts as the state’s top law enforcement official: “Prosecutor, dad, attorney general,” the ad declares.
Democrats are quick to note that Texas PAC, as a super PAC, is paying a higher rate for ads than the Talarico campaign is. But even then, they acknowledge the spending is staggering.
“We’ve never seen anything like it” in Texas, said one Democratic operative working to elect Talarico.
Ad spending has already far cleared the previous high-water mark, $55 million in 2018, for the contest between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, according to AdImpact.
Five weeks before the election, Paxton and Talarico remain neck-and-neck in public polls. And two Democratic operatives working to elect Talarico said their internal polling has not changed significantly since the huge wave of Republican spending started.
One of those operatives noted Texas PAC is paying an “absolutely punishing premium” on ads compared to the Talarico campaign – sometimes as much as five times more – due to the higher rate for super PACs.
For example, AdImpact data shows that Texas PAC outspent Talarico’s campaign by nearly 4-to-1 over the last week on local broadcast TV in the Dallas-Fort Worth media market. But it amounted to less than double the gross ratings points, a measurement of audience impact.
Talarico has responded to the ramped-up GOP spending with an ad where he says “billionaires are spending millions attacking me” due to his opposition to corporate PAC money, congressional stock trading and gerrymandering. The ad has gotten more than $4 million worth of airtime so far this month. In another, Talarico walks through his background and says that “my faith teaches me to serve my neighbors – that’s exactly what I’ll do in the United States Senate.”
Top ads from Talarico’s campaign in the month of September frequently aired during morning news shows.
The “Judge Judy” messages haven’t gone unanswered either. A spot calling Paxton “the most corrupt politician in Texas” aired 182 times in September during the courtroom show as counter-programming to Paxton’s ads.
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