2026-09-28T10:00:30.307Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/28/politics/trump-strategy-republicans-midterms
唐纳德·特朗普核心圈子对中期选举的情绪已愈发悲观，共和党候选人公开与这位总统决裂，且他的支持率跌至历史最低点，这引发了一个虽未明说但由来已久的问题：一位不受欢迎的总统该如何最好地帮助其政党保住国会控制权？
特朗普的顾问私下承认，几乎不指望他能争取到大量独立选民和摇摆选民，而这正是他2024年在关键州胜选的关键因素之一。尽管他们更担心失去众议院控制权，但共和党此前对保住参议院的信心也逐日消退。
“局势显然会他妈非常艰难，”一位特朗普顾问告诉CNN，并补充称他们认为最佳情况是复刻民主党2022年的处境：在前总统乔·拜登任内，民主党险些失去众议院控制权，但保住了参议院。
尽管如此，多名官员告诉CNN，特朗普团队仍计划在10月为特朗普和副总统JD·万斯安排密集的竞选行程，覆盖摇摆州和深红州——因为顾问们认为，共和党保住席位的唯一希望在于提高投票率，而总统可以在这方面发挥作用。
“选举制度的设计就是围绕着我们需要将投票率拉高2到3个百分点的选区展开的，”一名竞选工作人员告诉CNN。
近几周来，包括办公厅主任苏西·瓦尔斯在内的特朗普高级顾问制定了一份行程表，让特朗普在10月的大部分时间里都奔波在竞选活动中，但两名政府官员表示，并非所有行程都已确定。他计划下周前往阿拉巴马州和俄克拉荷马州，但一名共和党官员称这是出行战略中的“特例”，该战略将更多聚焦于摇摆选区。
“他会在佛罗里达、德克萨斯、密歇根和俄亥俄州全力造势——10月他几乎每天都会外出竞选。我们会全力以赴，”该官员补充道。不过另一名官员透露，即使在更多偏向紫色的州，特朗普的行程也会更多集中在保守派地区。
顾问们还希望特朗普和万斯的竞选活动能帮助筹集资金，因为包括特朗普的“让美国再次伟大行动委员会”（MAGA Inc. PAC）在内的共和党团体已在全国范围内出现资金大幅流失。本周，参议院领导基金将在德克萨斯州的支出增加至1亿美元，以支持共和党参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿——该州数十年来从未由民主党掌控，这暴露了共和党对参议院席位的新担忧。
尽管一名共和党工作人员表示，这笔巨额资金“在一定程度上”推动了选情向有利于己方的方向发展，但尚不足以扭转主要由总统本人造成的强劲政治逆风。
当被问及共和党能否做些什么来扭转局势时，该工作人员回答：“回到过去，永远不要发动对伊朗的战争。”
在摇摆地区甚至部分深红选区的共和党人已在伊朗战争、经济、移民等议题上与特朗普决裂。密歇根州参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯是本届选举中最受关注的候选人之一，他在最近一则广告中 lamented（哀叹）：“食品价格太高了，我们必须降低物价。”
“对伊朗的战争需要结束，而且要尽快结束，”罗杰斯说，“战争结束后，能源成本会大幅下降，但密歇根的家庭等不起。”
爱荷华州和俄亥俄州的共和党参议院候选人也表达了同样的观点。其他共和党议员已投票限制特朗普的战争权力。佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州的众议院议员也在移民问题上批评本届政府。还有多名候选人已从竞选网站上删除了与特朗普相关的内容。
一名参与战略制定的共和党官员对候选人与总统保持距离的担忧不以为然，称“他们需要按照自己的方式竞选，我们显然也鼓励他们做对自己有利的事”。
一个能体现总统及其“让美国再次伟大”品牌当前潜在分裂性的迹象是，特朗普政治行动委员会的大部分资金都来自两个新成立的、政治色彩没那么浓厚的组织：“绝不回头行动委员会”（No Going Back PAC Inc.）和“安全与负担得起行动委员会”（Safety & Affordability PAC Inc.）。
不过，特朗普的竞选团队仍认为，他带动投票率的能力是共和党11月选举的最大资产之一。尽管一些共和党人私下对敏感选区的候选人与特朗普一同亮相表示担忧，但一名官员驳斥了这种想法。
“大局已定，这些候选人根本无法摆脱特朗普的影响。所以我们必须顺势而为，”该官员说，“左翼无论如何都会攻击共和党候选人与特朗普走得太近，那不如从中获益，也就是最大化投票率。”
多名参与中期选举战略制定的消息人士告诉CNN，特朗普的竞选团队正是基于这一核心信念开展工作——只要投票率足够高，他们仍能获胜。他们的思路是，为了减少所需的“可说服选民”比例，至关重要的是让尽可能多的基础选民前往投票站。
“这完全是一场投票率的博弈，”一名共和党竞选官员说，“从第一天起，竞选委员会和总统的政治团队就在共享数据，确保我们精准瞄准需要动员的选民群体。”
消息人士指出，尽管在总统支持率如此低迷的情况下，这并非看待中期选举的传统方式，但特朗普一直是个与众不同的政治异类，总能打破常规预期。
但他的顾问也私下承认这一战略存在一个重大问题：特朗普不仅能极大地激发自己支持者的热情，也能强力推动民主党选民的投票率。
“把他的名字放在选票上的问题在于，这最终可能会成为仇视他的民主党选民的更大投票动力，”该竞选官员说。
白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中表示，特朗普“建立了政治史上最强大的联盟之一”，且“总统懂得如何与他们沟通”。
“特朗普总统是共和党毫无争议的领袖、最佳信使和无与伦比的动员者，他致力于维持共和党在国会的多数席位，”英格尔补充道。
白宫和总统的政治机构将万斯视为至关重要的副手，且相较于总统，万斯更能严格遵循既定信息行事。但竞选团队并未将他视为真正竞争激烈地区的一张王牌——他仍被视为特朗普的延伸。据熟悉相关讨论的消息人士透露，在某些摇摆选区，两人都可能弊大于利。
何时、何地派出两人，直接由总统政治团队积累的庞大数据运营团队决定。该团队在特朗普2024年竞选期间得到强化，如今也被共和党全国委员会以及参众两院的共和党竞选机构使用。詹姆斯·布莱尔在中期选举前离开白宫接管政治运营工作，一直在对竞选行程进行权衡。
万斯已直接与11月参选的共和党议员和候选人会面，帮助他们打磨竞选信息，同时他还负责为共和党全国委员会筹集所谓的“硬钱”。
“JD的主要职责是筹款，”一名消息人士告诉CNN，并提到万斯作为共和党全国委员会财务主席的角色。该消息人士称，这是一项紧急任务，尤其是考虑到最高法院本月早些时候的裁决，允许共和党全国委员会等政党委员会在中期选举前享受电视广告折扣费率。
万斯并非白宫部署的唯一副手——高级幕僚也直接与瓦尔斯合作，为特朗普内阁成员挑选竞选行程和优先事项。事实上，特朗普的政治团队已对内阁官员的竞选参与情况进行追踪和排名：前往摇摆选区可获得更高积分，海外出行则会扣分。
据多名熟悉此事的消息人士透露，这些排名已在集体会议上分享给官员，以期激励更多人参与竞选。据参会消息人士称，在华盛顿华尔道夫酒店的一次夏季会议上，布莱尔称赞小企业管理局局长凯莉·洛夫勒排名第一，代理劳工部长基思·松德林排名第二。
Inside the Trump campaign strategy to reverse Republicans’ dwindling hopes of winning the midterms
2026-09-28T10:00:30.307Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/28/politics/trump-strategy-republicans-midterms
The midterms mood among Donald Trump’s inner circle has soured as GOP candidates openly break with the president and his approval ratings hit an all-time low, prompting a largely unspoken but age-old question: How does an unpopular president best help his party keep control of Congress?
Trump advisers have privately acknowledged that there’s little expectation he can win over large numbers of independents and swing voters, which was part of his path to victory in critical states in 2024. And while they’re more concerned about losing control of the House, Republicans’ previous confidence that they can hold onto the Senate is dwindling by the day.
“It’s obviously going to be f***ing rough,” one Trump adviser told CNN, adding that they believe the best-case scenario is achieving what Democrats did in 2022, when under former President Joe Biden they narrowly lost control of the House but kept the Senate.
Still, Trump’s team is planning an aggressive campaign schedule for Trump and Vice President JD Vance in October in both battleground and deep-red states alike, multiple officials told CNN — as advisers believe their only hope at holding ground is increasing turnout, and the president can help with that.
“The system is built around what areas we need to goose turnout 2-3 points,” one operative told CNN.
In recent weeks, Trump’s senior advisers, including chief of staff Susie Wiles, put together a calendar that has Trump on the campaign trail for most days in October, though two administration officials said that not all stops had been confirmed. He is planning trips to Alabama and Oklahoma next week, but a GOP official said those were “outliers” in the travel strategy, which would focus more on battleground districts.
“He’ll be playing hard in Florida, Texas, Michigan and Ohio — he’ll be on the road just about every day in October campaigning. We’re leaving it all on the table,” the official added. However, even in more purple states, the plan is for Trump to go to more conservative areas, according to another official.
Advisers also hope the Trump-Vance campaigning will help raise money as Republican groups — including Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC — have begun hemorrhaging cash across the country. This week, the Senate Leadership Fund increased its spending in Texas to $100 million to support GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton in a state they haven’t lost in decades, exposing the party’s fresh worries about the Senate.
And while one Republican operative said that the enormous sum was moving the needle in their direction “some,” it wasn’t clear it would be enough to reverse the strong political headwinds largely created by the president himself.
Asked if there was anything Republicans could do to change the tide, the operative replied: “Go back in time and never start the war with Iran.”
Republicans in both purple territories and even some red districts have broken from Trump on issues ranging from the Iran War to the economy to immigration. Republican Mike Rogers, the Michigan Senate candidate in one of the most closely watched races this cycle, lamented in a recent ad that “Groceries cost too much. We have to bring prices down.”
“The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly,” Rogers said. “When it does, energy costs will plummet, but Michigan families can’t afford to wait for that to happen.”
That sentiment was echoed by the GOP’s Senate candidates in Iowa and Ohio. Other Republican lawmakers have voted to limit Trump’s war powers. House lawmakers in Florida and Texas have also criticized the administration on immigration. Several others have removed Trump references from campaign websites.
The GOP official involved in strategy brushed off concerns about candidates distancing from the president, saying “they need to run the races they need to run, and we’re obviously encouraging them to do what they need to do.”
In a sign of how potentially polarizing the president and his MAGA brand are right now, much of the money being spent by Trump’s PAC is coming through two newly formed groups with far less politically aligned names: No Going Back PAC Inc. and Safety & Affordability PAC Inc.
However, Trump’s political team still believes that his ability to drive turnout is one of Republicans’ greatest assets come November. While some Republicans have quietly expressed concerns about candidates in sensitive races appearing alongside Trump, one official brushed off the notion.
“The cake is already baked. There’s no getting away from Trump for these guys. So we have to lean into it,” the official said. “The left is going to attack [Republican candidates] as being close to Trump no matter what, so why not get the benefit out of it, which is max turnout.”
Multiple sources working on midterm strategy told CNN that Trump’s political operation was working off that central belief — that they could still win with enough turnout. In order to minimize the percent of “persuadable” voters that are needed, their thinking goes, it’s critical to get as many base voters to the polls as possible.
“It’s all a turnout game,” a GOP campaign official said. “From day one, the campaign committees and the president’s political operation have been sharing data to make sure we’re hammering the exact people we need to turn out.”
Sources noted that while this was not the traditional way to look at a midterm when a president’s approval ratings are so low, Trump has always been a different political animal who defies typical expectations.
But his advisers also privately acknowledge a major problem with that strategy: Trump isn’t just an incredible driver of enthusiasm for his own supporters; he’s also a strong driver of Democratic turnout.
“The issue with putting his name on the ballot is it could ultimately serve as a bigger driving force for Democratic voters who hate him,” the campaign official said.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement that Trump has “built one of the most robust coalitions in political history” and “the President understands how to communicate with them.”
“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” Ingle added.
The White House and the president’s political apparatus view Vance as a crucial surrogate, and one that tends to stay far more on message compared to the president. But the campaign doesn’t exactly view him as an ace card to deploy in truly competitive territories — he’s still viewed as an extension of Trump. Both men are seen as potentially doing more damage than good in certain swing districts, sources familiar with the discussions tell CNN.
The decision of where and when to send both men is driven directly by the massive data operation that the president’s political team has amassed, one that was fortified during Trump’s 2024 campaign and is now also being used by the Republican National Committee and the GOP’s House and Senate campaign arms. James Blair, who left the White House to take charge of the political operation ahead of the midterms, has been weighing in on the calendars.
Vance, who has met directly with GOP lawmakers and candidates on the ballot in November to help them workshop messaging, has also been tasked with raising so-called “hard money” for the Republican National Committee.
“JD’s primary responsibility has been fundraising,” one source told CNN, nodding to Vance’s role as the RNC’s finance chair. The source described that as an urgent necessity, particularly given the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this month allowing political party committees, like the RNC, to get discounted television ad rates ahead of the midterm elections.
Vance isn’t the only surrogate the White House has deployed — senior staffers have also worked directly with Wiles to pick campaign stops and priorities for members of Trump’s Cabinet. In fact, Trump’s political team has tracked and ranked Cabinet officials’ campaign involvement, with higher points for traveling to swing districts and subtractions for overseas trips.
The rankings have been shared with officials in group settings in hopes it would incentivize more campaign involvement, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. During a summer meeting at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington, Blair credited Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler as leading the pack, with Acting Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling in second, sources present at the meeting said.
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