2026-09-23T10:02:45.629Z / 路透社
得克萨斯州唐娜，9月23日（路透社）——南得克萨斯州是一片广袤之地，高速公路绵延不绝，平坦的土地上点缀着抽油机、牧豆树和加油站，选民们纷纷抱怨油价不该这么高。2024年，这片区域曾大幅转向支持唐纳德·特朗普，但到2026年可能再次变天。
从圣安东尼奥郊区出发，穿过历史悠久的广袤牧场，一直抵达边境城市麦卡伦，路透社行程超过360英里（580公里），采访了30多名拉美裔选民，他们表达了相似的心声：作为总统，特朗普本有机会降低这片以卡车和牛肉 barbacoa（墨西哥烤肉）为主的地区的物价，但他没能做到。
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许多人不再相信共和党会为像他们这样的人谋福利。对经济压力的不满和特朗普的移民政策正日益加剧，这暴露了共和党官员原本希望的拉美裔美国人持久政治重组的裂痕。根据路透社/益普索的最新跟踪民调，特朗普的全国支持率已降至33%，为重返总统职位以来的最低水平。
这种不确定性给得克萨斯州共和党人带来了难题。去年该州重新划分国会选区时，他们押注助力特朗普2024年胜选的拉美裔群体仍会支持共和党。
无党派选举预测机构库克政治报告的选举分析师戴维·瓦瑟曼表示，如今共和党人正面临一个问题：这个素来摇摆不定的选民群体，是否会像美国其他地区在中期选举和特别选举中那样，重新倒向得克萨斯州的民主党。
得克萨斯州共和党人在2026年选举前对多个选区进行了调整，以使其更有利于本党候选人，他们的调整依据是特朗普2024年的选举表现——这是本世纪共和党总统候选人在拉美裔选民中取得的最强支持率。新划分的多个选区非但没有削弱拉美裔的投票权，反而仍以拉美裔选民为主，其中包括得克萨斯州第15和第35国会选区。
根据该州的重划选区分析，第15选区的拉美裔占公民投票年龄人口的74.5%。第35选区的拉美裔占比为51.6%。然而，这两个选区都变得更具竞争性：政治预测网站萨巴托水晶球将第15选区评为“势均力敌”，第35选区评为“倾向共和党”。库克政治报告则将第15选区评为“倾向共和党”。
2026年8月的得克萨斯州南方大学民调显示，民主党国会候选人在南得克萨斯州三个选区领先，其中包括第15选区。对近50名分析师、活动人士、民调人员和选民的采访也佐证了这一观点：南得克萨斯州一些曾投票支持特朗普的拉美裔选民似乎对民主党持开放态度。
其中一人是来自麦卡伦的53岁索尔·瓜哈尔多，他曾三次投票给特朗普。
“我过去是保守派，极右翼分子，”他说，“现在我比以往任何时候都更倾向于投票给民主党。”
瓜哈尔多表示，尽管他和妻子特里都有稳定收入，但两人仍靠 paycheck to paycheck（月光）度日。汽油是一笔沉重的负担，根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，截至9月22日，麦卡伦地区的平均汽油价格为每加仑4.09美元。
特里称，特朗普严格的移民执法“打击”过于严厉，对于那些只是想在美国工作的人来说太过苛刻，因为他的政策永久拆散了一些试图在美国立足的家庭。
民调显示，许多拉美裔选民对共和党越来越不满。为库克政治报告和TelevisaUnivision开展的9月得克萨斯州1000名拉美裔民调发现，18%曾投票给特朗普的拉美裔选民不再支持他，近三分之二的拉美裔选民表示，若候选人支持特朗普的移民政策，他们投票给该候选人的可能性会降低。
对两党来说，这些转变都说明了拉美裔选民的潜力与风险。事实证明，他们的支持往往不那么依赖党派忠诚，而是取决于他们是否认为民选官员能够改善自身的经济状况。
“这不像你对着一堵墙说话，因为他们都会投民主党或者都会投共和党，”西班牙语媒体公司TelevisaUnivision的首席执行官丹尼尔·阿莱格雷说，“他们都会投票给能让生活变得更好的人。”
共和党人驳斥了拉美裔选民正在远离他们的前提。美国全国共和党国会委员会全国西班牙裔新闻秘书克里斯蒂安·马丁内斯表示，民主党多年来一直以“否认、借口和 condescension（居高临下的态度）”应对拉美裔选民支持率下降的问题，而非解决促使许多工薪阶层选民转向共和党的担忧。
候选人素质
重划选区可能适得其反的风险在第15选区尤为明显。重新划分后的选区若按2024年的选举情况，特朗普将以18个百分点的优势获胜，而2020年他仅以2个百分点领先，2016年首次参选时则以14个百分点落败。
该选区现任议员、共和党人莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹面临一位独特的对手：民主党歌手鲍比·普利多，他的名人地位早于其从政经历。他的代表作《Desvelado》在Spotify上的播放量近6.1亿次，还曾两次获得拉丁格莱美奖。
他的经济主张和跨界吸引力使该选区成为该州最受关注的竞选之一。得克萨斯州南方大学8月底的民调显示，普利多以5个百分点的优势领先德拉克鲁兹。
头戴牛仔帽、身着牛仔裤和牛仔靴的普利多周末穿梭于南得克萨斯州，从一个成人礼派对——拉美裔社区为女孩举办的传统15岁生日庆典——赶往下一个。他的惊喜免费亮相活动常常以给寿星的礼物收尾：一顶带有粉色字母“让成人礼派对再次伟大”的白色帽子。
普利多表示，民主党在南得克萨斯州拉美裔选民中失利，是因为他们未能解决工薪家庭最关心的经济问题，但他也表示，两大政党往往都误解了选民。
“作为民主党人，我认为我们误解了拉美裔选民的诉求，老实说，我认为共和党也没搞懂，”普利多告诉路透社，“我们不想要救济金，我们非常自豪。我们只是想要一个工作的机会，去创造价值、养家糊口，然后努力让我们的孩子比我们过得更好。”
8月1日，普利多意外出现在梅洛迪·席尔瓦的成人礼派对上，当时约有200名亲友到场。当他出现在楼梯口时，人群发出尖叫；当他提及自己的国会竞选时，欢呼声更响。
“他在河谷地区根基深厚，”梅洛迪的父亲、麦卡伦的警察迈克尔·席尔瓦说，“我觉得他不只是代表河谷地区，更是代表raza（拉美裔族群），你懂的，代表这里的人民——当地人。”
他的知名度似乎是他最大的优势之一。在往北约180英里（290公里）的农村比维尔的每月户外市场上，路透社采访了十几名选民，普利多的名字随处可见，就像夏日的热浪一样。
德拉克鲁兹的竞选团队未回应置评请求。
36岁的拉蒙·巴雷拉在社交媒体上被称为“德州茶人”，他察觉到了民意的转变。他在TikTok上发布简短视频，“爆料”政治和社区议题，开着道奇Ram 3500穿梭于南得克萨斯州，与当地人交谈，同时搜寻旧家具翻新。
他2024年第一次投票给特朗普，称自己是保守派，但并不强烈倾向任何一个政党。他表示，特朗普的任期令人失望，这让他转而投票给普利多和竞选州长的民主党人吉娜·希诺霍萨——后者将挑战寻求连任第四届州长的共和党人格雷格·雅培。
“标准普尔500指数表现强劲，但我们的钱包却没有，”他说。
Republicans may have gerrymandered their way into a Texas-sized Latino problem
2026-09-23T10:02:45.629Z / Reuters
DONNA, Texas, Sept 23 (Reuters) – South Texas unfurls in long stretches of highways across flat landscapes dotted with pump jacks, mesquite trees, and gas stations sporting prices that voters swear should not be this high. This territory swung heavily to Donald Trump in 2024 — but may shift again in 2026.
From the outskirts of San Antonio, through historic, sprawling ranchlands to the border city of McAllen, Reuters traveled more than 360 miles (580 km) and spoke to more than 30 Latino voters, who shared a similar refrain: as President, Trump had a chance to lower prices across this expanse, where trucks and beef barbacoa are king, and failed.
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Many are no longer convinced the Republican Party is looking out for people like them. Frustration over economic pressures and Trump’s immigration agenda is rising, exposing cracks in what Republican officials hoped was a durable political realignment among Latino Americans. Trump’s approval rating nationwide has fallen to 33%, the lowest since returning to office, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.
That uncertainty poses a problem for Texas Republicans, who redrew congressional maps last year betting the Latino contingent who helped power Trump’s 2024 win would remain in their column.
Now, they’re grappling with whether this notoriously swingy voting group may snap back to Democrats in the Lone Star State as they have in other parts of the country in off-year and special elections, said David Wasserman, elections analyst at the nonpartisan forecaster Cook Political Report.
Texas Republicans sought to make several districts more favorable to their candidates ahead of the 2026 elections, basing their changes on Trump’s 2024 performance, the strongest showing among Latino voters by a Republican presidential candidate this century. Rather than dilute Latino voting power, many of the newly configured districts remained heavily Latino, including Texas’ 15th and 35th Congressional Districts.
In District 15, Latinos account for 74.5% of the citizen voting-age population. In District 35, they make up 51.6%, according to the state’s redistricting analysis. Yet both districts have become more competitive, with political prognostication site Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating the 15th District a Toss-up and the 35th District Lean Republican. Cook Political rates the 15th Lean Republican.
An August 2026 Texas Southern University poll found Democratic congressional candidates leading in three South Texas districts, including the 15th. Interviews with almost 50 analysts, activists, pollsters and voters back up the idea that some Latinos in South Texas who voted for Trump appear open to Democrats.
One of those is Saúl Guajardo, 53, of McAllen, who voted for Trump three times.
“I used to be a conservative, far-right,” he said. “I’m more open than ever before to vote Democrat.”
Guajardo said he and his wife Terrie live paycheck-to-paycheck, despite steady incomes. Gasoline is a big weight, as the average price of a gallon was $4.09 in the McAllen area as of September 22, according to AAA data.
Terrie said Trump’s strict immigration enforcement “crackdown” was too harsh for people who simply want to work in the United States, as his policies have permanently separated some families trying to make a life in the U.S.
Polling suggests many Latinos are souring on Republicans. A September poll of 1,000 Latinos in Texas conducted for Cook Political and TelevisaUnivision found that 18% of Latinos who voted for Trump no longer support him, and almost two-thirds of Latino voters would be less likely to vote for candidates who support Trump’s immigration policies.
For both parties, those shifts explain both the promise and peril of Latino voters. Their support has often proved less dependent on party loyalty than on whether they believe elected officials will improve their economic circumstances.
“It’s not one of these that you’re talking to a wall because they’re all going to vote Democrat or they’re all going to vote Republican,” said Daniel Alegre, CEO of Spanish-language media company TelevisaUnivision. “They’re all going to vote for the person who is going to make their lives better.”
Republicans reject the premise that Latino voters are moving away from them. Christian Martinez, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s national Hispanic press secretary, said Democrats spent years responding to declining support among Hispanic voters with “denial, excuses, and condescension,” instead of addressing concerns that drove many working-class voters toward Republicans.
CANDIDATE QUALITY
The risk that redistricting backfires is particularly clear in the 15th District, which in its reconfigured form would have given Trump an 18-point win in 2024, compared with a two-point margin in 2020 and a 14-point loss in his first election in 2016.
That district’s incumbent, Republican Monica De La Cruz, is facing a unique opponent in Democratic singer Bobby Pulido, whose celebrity status predates his entry into politics. His signature hit, “Desvelado,” has nearly 610 million Spotify streams, and he has won two Latin Grammy Awards.
His economic message and crossover appeal have turned the district into one of the state’s most closely watched races. A late August Texas Southern University poll had Pulido leading De La Cruz by five percentage points.
Dressed in a cowboy hat, blue jeans and cowboy boots, Pulido crisscrosses South Texas on weekends, hopping from one quinceañera, a traditional 15th birthday celebration for girls in Latino communities, to another. His surprise — and free — appearances often end with a gift for the celebrant: a white hat with pink lettering reading “Make Quinceañeras Great Again.”
Pulido said Democrats lost ground with Latino voters in South Texas because they failed to address the economic concerns that matter most to working families, though he said both major parties often misread the electorate.
“As a Democrat, I think that we misunderstand the Hispanic vote and I think, honestly, I think Republicans don’t get it either,” Pulido told Reuters. “We don’t want handouts, we’re very proud. We just want an opportunity to go work and make something and provide for our families, and then work towards our kids prospering better than we did.”
On August 1, Pulido surprised Melody Silva and roughly 200 relatives and friends gathered for her quinceañera. They screamed when he appeared at the top of a staircase and cheered louder when he mentioned his congressional race.
“He’s got such great roots here in the Valley,” said Michael Silva, Melody’s father and a police officer in McAllen. “I feel like he’s not just representing the Valley, but representing the raza, you know, the people, for us — locals.”
His name recognition appears to be one of his greatest strengths. Among the dozen voters Reuters spoke to at a monthly outdoor market roughly 180 miles (290 km) north in rural Beeville, Pulido’s name was as ubiquitous as the summer heat.
De La Cruz’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Ramon Barrera, 36, known as “The Texas Tea Guy” on social media, sees the shift in sentiment. He posts short TikTok updates “spilling the tea” about politics and community issues, crisscrossing South Texas in his Dodge Ram 3500 to talk to locals, along with hunting for old furniture to refurbish.
He voted for Trump for the first time in 2024, describing himself as conservative but not strongly aligned with either party. He said Trump’s term has been a disappointment, opening the door for him to vote for Pulido and Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat running for governor against Republican Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term.
“The S&P 500 looks great, but our wallets don’t,” he said.
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