2026-09-22T09:00:03-04:00 / 福克斯新闻
民调显示MAGA运动比民社党、社会主义更受选民欢迎，民主党未来之争愈演愈烈
一项新民调表明，MAGA运动和资本主义在选民中的支持率高于美国民主社会主义者组织（DSA）和社会主义。嘉宾莱斯利·马歇尔和马特·惠特洛克加入《美国报道》栏目，就民主党党的意识形态方向展开辩论。讨论还涉及Axios近期的一篇报道，该报道提及党内对前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯参加2028年总统大选的内部疑虑。
NEW 您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章！
从唐纳德·特朗普总统2024年成功连任那一刻起，选民就有充分理由认为民主党将在今年11月的中期选举中夺回众议院席位。
自1934年以来，执政党在除两次选举外的所有中期选举中都丢失了席位，其中包括特朗普任期内的两次中期选举：执政党共和党在2018年丢失40个席位，民主党在2022年丢失9个席位。
记者手记：众议院控制权可能取决于旧政治规则是否仍然适用
福克斯新闻关于特朗普总统任内经济表现下众议院席位流失的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
目前共和党在众议院的席位岌岌可危，蓝队（民主党）的胜算已经很大。
但最终易手的席位数量仍是未知数，而特朗普标志性的政策在此过程中发挥了重要作用。
福克斯新闻关于最新民调中民主党领先优势的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
随着秋季到来，民主党正享受今年以来最大的民调领先优势。最新民调显示，选民平均以7个百分点的差距（49%对42%）更倾向于本选区的民主党候选人。
李·卡特：夏季民调没抓住重点：选民正在转变——中期选举正式开启
福克斯新闻关于民主党民调表现的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
民主党在可能投票的选民中表现更佳，平均领先优势达11个百分点（53%对42%）。
这一领先优势比四年前同期共和党拥有的领先优势更大，也更稳定。
这些民调表明，我们正迎来一场“蓝色浪潮”，就像八年前民主党借助的那场浪潮一样。
（不过这场浪潮可能不会像此前那样汹涌。由于选区重划，两党可争夺的席位都有所减少，因此如今拿下几十个席位，相当于过去拿下40个席位的效果。）
尽管如此，距离选举日还有六周，仍有一些未知因素。尽管目前所有迹象都指向民主党将迎来一场大胜，但局势可能在哪一环出错？
伊朗问题上会生变吗？
本届政府对伊朗开战的决定被证明让共和党付出了沉重代价。
创纪录汽油价格挤压美国民众生活，夏季旅游季结束、中期选举临近，伊朗战争持续
福克斯新闻关于汽油价格与民调趋势的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
当前汽油价格为每加仑4.48美元，较开战之初的2.98美元上涨了50%，且本月上涨速度进一步加快。
特朗普最糟糕的民调表现集中在通胀和生活成本问题上，上周福克斯新闻民调显示，61%的选民认为汽油价格是“重大问题”。
昨日，艾奥瓦州众议员阿什利·希农成为第二位呼吁结束战争的共和党参议院候选人（第一位是4月的参议员苏珊·柯林斯）。无疑，许多处境艰难的共和党众议院在任议员也持同样看法。
在这场与其说是选民拥护民主党、不如说是拒绝特朗普议程的选举中，伊朗政策的转向将产生影响。
民社党会拖累民主党选民支持率吗？
民主党向选民提出了两种经济愿景：第一种以阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德和特洛伊·杰克逊等候选人为代表，呼吁在医疗保健和税收领域进行改革。另一种则更为普遍，也不那么激进，主要是推翻特朗普的议程。
早间观察：五个参议院席位 races 凸显民主党可能为何后悔初选选择
福克斯新闻关于候选人立场与投票趋势的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
据NBC新闻最新民调，选民表示支持进步议程的核心内容，包括对亿万富翁加税，这一政策能让候选人的得票率高出34个百分点；还有“全民医保”计划，支持率领先幅度达17个百分点。
福克斯新闻关于候选人立场与投票趋势的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
但这些政策所依附的运动支持率却不尽如人意：选民更有可能以10个百分点的差距拒绝支持伯尼·桑德斯背书的候选人，以19个百分点的差距拒绝支持美国民主社会主义者组织的候选人。
我们尚不清楚民主党左翼候选人能否兼顾这两方面。
福克斯新闻关于候选人立场与投票趋势的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
同一份民调显示，特朗普的经济宣传整体不受欢迎，包括他提出的如果共和党控制国会就向选民发放5000美元支票，以及向以色列提供资金和武器的计划。而这些可能正是推动民主党选民投票的关键。
但需警惕民社党是否会损害民主党形象。
会有更多MAGA选民出来投票吗？
共和党中期选举大会已落幕，并未对当前民调产生任何影响。
这或许并非共和党大会的目标，他们利用这场“特朗普狂欢节”，提醒忠诚的MAGA选民记住总统在移民、犯罪等议题上的政绩。
他们中有多少人会在选举日到场投票？
福克斯新闻关于特朗普背书情况的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
上周福克斯新闻民调显示，四分之一的选民表示，特朗普总统的背书会让他们更愿意投票给该候选人。这部分群体主要是MAGA基础选民，其规模足以影响选举结果。
MAGA选民的投票率可能会限制民主党所能达到的最高席位数。
在本周的权力排名中，堪萨斯州参议院竞选的竞争变得更加激烈，17个众议院选区的优势向民主党倾斜。此外，还更新了两场州长选举的情况。
参议院：堪萨斯州成为第九个战场州
民主党可以为政治环境的转变庆祝，但每一场参议院选举都各有不同。本次预测中，这场竞选仍处于势均力敌的状态。
两党目前各拥有47个席位，另有6个席位将决定参议院控制权归属：阿拉斯加、艾奥瓦、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄和得克萨斯。
被列为“倾向某党”的选区竞争也同样激烈，如今堪萨斯州加入新罕布什尔州和北卡罗来纳州，使战场州总数达到9个。
今年大部分时间里堪萨斯州都在民主党关注范围内，因为他们认为该州招募到了明星候选人——大型教堂牧师亚当·汉密尔顿。他以汽油和柴油价格为竞选核心议题，这在以农村和农业为主的中西部地区影响巨大。
福克斯新闻关于参议院预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔上周得到了共和党另一位明星的助力：副总统JD·万斯，他与马歇尔共同举行集会，宣传特朗普政府的制造业议程。
该州已有94年没有选出过民主党参议员，但并非完全排斥民主党籍全州公职人员：现任州长劳拉·凯利就是民主党人，她在2018年和2022年都成功连任。
堪萨斯州的评级从“共和党大概率胜出”调整为“共和党小幅领先”。
与此同时，在佐治亚州，民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫寻求连任之际，正巩固其支持基础。他的竞选评级从“民主党小幅领先”调整为“民主党大概率胜出”。
福克斯新闻关于参议院预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
众议院：民主党上升空间更大；共和党仍有狭窄路径夺回多数席位
民主党在众议院的席位 gains 更大，本周的一系列民调对众议院预测影响最为显著。
福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
本次预测中民主党目前拥有215个席位，这意味着他们只需在19个势均力敌的选区中赢下3个，就能翻转众议院控制权。
如果民主党迎来“大胜之夜”，拿下所有势均力敌的选区，他们将获得多达234个席位，共和党仅余201个席位。
福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
共和党仍有狭窄的翻盘路径。尽管本次预测认为共和党扩大众议院多数席位的可能性不大，但如果共和党迎来“大胜之夜”，他们仍能以220个席位保住众议院控制权。
席位变化很大程度上源于通用选票民调结果。民主党在可能投票的选民中拥有8至13个百分点的领先优势，这一优势对一些竞争激烈选区的共和党竞选团队来说难以逾越。即使是在特朗普两年前以较大优势获胜的部分选区，情况也是如此。
福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这些变化也反映了拉美裔选民向民主党靠拢的趋势：从2024年总统大选的民主党领先12个百分点，扩大到福克斯最新通用选票民调中的领先29个百分点。
这将在佛罗里达州产生影响，该州有7个选区的优势向民主党倾斜，包括第25选区（由民主党人贾里德·莫斯科维茨持有，评级从“势均力敌”调整为“民主党小幅领先”）和第27选区（由共和党人马里亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉查持有，评级从“共和党大概率胜出”调整为“共和党小幅领先”）。这一趋势也影响了得克萨斯州，由民主党人维森特·冈萨雷斯持有的第34选区评级从“势均力敌”调整为“民主党小幅领先”。
共和党在许多选区都开展了强劲的竞选活动，但如果民主党在通用选票上的优势持续下去，民主党所能达到的席位上限可能会更高。
福克斯新闻关于众议院预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
州长选举：得克萨斯州和阿拉斯加州局势向远离共和党方向偏移
数据中心建设问题在全国各州的州长选举中仍扮演重要角色，尤其是在俄亥俄州——福克斯新闻的麦迪逊·奥尔沃思昨日就此问题采访了选民，以及得克萨斯州——现任州长格雷格·雅培正面临其任内最艰难的连任挑战。
福克斯新闻关于州长选举预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
雅培的竞争对手、民主党州众议员吉娜·希诺霍萨将这一问题作为两人竞选活动的核心议题。
昨日，雅培扩大了数据中心建设暂停令，新数据中心建设目前“ effectively halted”（实际暂停）至至少12月。
这位州长寻求第四个任期拥有重要的结构性优势，但民调始终显示选情胶着。得克萨斯州的评级从“共和党大概率胜出”调整为“共和党小幅领先”。
福克斯新闻关于州长选举预测的权力排名。（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
最后来看阿拉斯加州，最新民调显示该州参议院选势均力敌，而乍一看州长选举竞争开放，民主党候选人领先三位共和党候选人。
若将共和党候选人的得票合并计算，该党在本次民调中与民主党持平。但阿拉斯加州是两个采用排名选择投票制的州之一。如果民主党选民标记的第二、第三、第四选择票数多于共和党选民，可能会损害共和党保住这个第49州的机会。该州州长选举评级从“共和党小幅领先”调整为“势均力敌”。
雷米·努马是福克斯新闻频道首席政治事务专家。您可以在推特上关注他：@remynuma。
Fox News Power Rankings: For the Democrats, where could it possibly go wrong?
2026-09-22T09:00:03-04:00 / Fox News
Poll shows MAGA more popular than DSA, socialism as debate over Democrats’ future intensifies
A new poll indicates the MAGA movement and capitalism hold higher favorability among voters than the Democratic Socialists of America and socialism. Panelists Leslie Marshall and Matt Whitlock join ‘America Reports’ to debate the ideological direction of the Democratic Party. The discussion also addresses a recent Axios report concerning internal skepticism about former Vice President Kamala Harris running in the 2028 presidential election.
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From the moment President Donald Trump completed his comeback in 2024, voters had good reason to think that the Democrats would retake the House this November.
The president’s party has lost ground in all but two elections since 1934, including the two Trump-era midterms, where the party in power lost 40 seats (Republicans, 2018) and 9 seats (Democrats, 2022).
REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: HOUSE CONTROL COULD HINGE ON WHETHER THE OLD POLITICAL RULES STILL APPLY
Fox News Power Rankings on midterm seat losses under President Donald Trump’s economy.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
With Republicans currently hanging by a thread in the House, most of the work has already been done for Team Blue.
The number of seats that will change hands is another question, and here, Trump’s signature policies are playing a big role.
Fox News Power Rankings on Democratic lead in the latest polling.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
As we enter fall, Democrats are enjoying their widest polling lead of the year. Voters say they prefer the Democrat to the Republican in their district by an average of 7 points in new polls (49%-42%).
LEE CARTER: THE SUMMER POLLS MISSED THE POINT: VOTERS ARE MOVING — AND THE MIDTERMS BEGIN
Fox News Power Rankings on Democratic Party’s polling.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Democrats perform even better among likely voters, with an 11-point average lead (53%-42%).
That’s a larger and more consistent lead than the GOP had this time four years ago.
These polls suggest that we’re heading for a “blue wave” like the one Democrats rode eight years ago.
(That wave probably won’t rise as high as it once did. Thanks to redistricting, there are fewer seats in play for either party, so think of a gain of a few dozen as the modern equivalent of 40.)
Still, there are six weeks until Election Day, and there are some things we don’t know. With all signs currently pointing to a good Democratic night, where could it possibly go wrong?
Will anything change on Iran?
The administration’s decision to go to war with Iran is proving costly for the GOP.
RECORD GAS PRICES SQUEEZE AMERICANS AS SUMMER TRAVEL SEASON ENDS, MIDTERMS LOOM AND IRAN WAR WAGES ON
Fox News Power Rankings on gas prices and polling trends.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Gas prices sit at $4.48 today, up 50% from $2.98 at the start of the war, and increasing at a higher rate this month.
Trump’s worst ratings have been on inflation and the cost of living, and 61% of voters called gas prices a “major problem” in last week’s Fox News Poll.
Yesterday, Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson became the second Republican Senate candidate to call for an end to the war (the first was Sen. Susan Collins, in April). No doubt many vulnerable House GOP incumbents feel the same way.
In an election that looks less like an embrace of Democrats than a rejection of Trump’s agenda, a change of course in Iran would have an impact.
Could the DSA drag down the Democratic vote?
Democrats have presented voters with two economic visions: the first, championed by candidates like Abdul El-Sayed and Troy Jackson, calls for a revolution on healthcare and taxes. The other, more common and less sweeping, is largely about undoing the Trump agenda.
MORNING GLORY: FIVE SENATE RACES SHOW WHY DEMOCRATS MAY REGRET THEIR PRIMARY CHOICES
Fox News Power Rankings on candidate positions and voting trends.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Voters say they like core parts of the progressive agenda, including raising taxes on billionaires, which makes voters more likely to vote for a candidate by a 34-point margin, according to a new NBC News Poll, and “Medicare-for-all,” which has a 17-point margin.
Fox News Power Rankings on candidate positions and voting trends.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
But the movements to which those policies are tied don’t fare as well: voters are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by Bernie Sanders by a 10-point margin, and less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the Democratic Socialists of America by 19 points.
We don’t know yet whether candidates on the left wing of the Democratic Party will be able to thread this needle.
Fox News Power Rankings on candidate positions and voting trends.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Trump’s economic messaging is broadly unpopular, according to the same poll, including his proposal to send $5,000 checks to voters if Republicans keep control of Congress, as well as sending funding and weapons to Israel. That’s what is likely to get Democrats over the line.
But watch whether the DSA hurts the Dems.
Are there more MAGA votes out there?
The Republicans’ midterm convention is now in the rear-view mirror, and it didn’t make a dent in the polls we’ve seen.
That probably wasn’t the goal for the GOP, who used the “Trumpapalooza” to remind loyal MAGA voters about the president’s wins on immigration and crime, among other issues.
How many of them will show up on Election Day?
Fox News Power Rankings on Trump endorsements.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
In last week’s Fox News Poll, a quarter of voters said an endorsement from President Trump makes them more likely to vote for a candidate. That quarter is mostly the MAGA base, and it’s large enough to impact a race.
MAGA turnout could limit the Democrats’ ceiling.
In this week’s Power Rankings, Kansas’ Senate race gets more competitive and 17 House races shift toward the Democrats. Plus, updates in two gubernatorial races.
Senate: Kansas becomes the ninth battleground state
Democrats can celebrate a shift in the political environment, but every Senate race is different. It’s still a toss-up in this forecast.
Fox News Power Rankings on which party voters trust more to handle the economy.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Each party has 47 seats, with six in the middle to determine control: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
Races in the “lean” categories are highly competitive, too, and today, Kansas joins New Hampshire and North Carolina to round out the list of nine battleground states.
Kansas has been on the Democrats’ radar for most of the year, thanks to what they believe to be a star recruit in megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton. He is campaigning on gas and diesel prices, which have an outsize impact in the rural and agriculture-heavy Midwest.
Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Sen. Roger Marshall, the incumbent, got some help last week from a star of the Republicans’ own: Vice President JD Vance, who rallied with Marshall to promote the Trump administration’s manufacturing agenda.
The state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years, but it isn’t allergic to statewide Dems: incumbent governor Laura Kelly is one, and she won in both 2018 and 2022.
Kansas moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is consolidating support as he seeks a second term. His race moves from Lean D to Likely D.
Fox News Power Rankings on Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
House: Democrats enjoy a higher ceiling; narrow pathways remain for a Republican majority
The Democrats have made bigger gains in the House, where this week’s set of polls has the most impact.
Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The party has 215 seats in this forecast, which means they would only need to win 3 of the 19 toss-ups to flip the House.
On a “good night” for Democrats, which would see them win all of those toss-up races, they’d take up to 234 seats, leaving the Republicans with 201.
Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Narrow pathways remain for the GOP. While this forecast sees an expansion of the Republican House majority as unlikely, a good night for the party would have them hold on to the House with 220 seats.
The shifts are largely a product of the generic ballot polling. The Democrats’ lead among likely voters of 8 to 13 points will be too much for GOP campaigns in some highly competitive areas to overcome. The same is true even for a few districts that Trump won by a healthy margin two years ago.
Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
These changes also reflect the shift among Hispanic voters toward Democrats: from D+12 in the 2024 presidential race to D+29 in Fox’s latest generic ballot survey.
That will make a difference across Florida, where seven races shift towards Democrats, including the 25th District (held by Jared Moskowitz (D), from Toss-up to Lean D), and the 27th District (held by María Elvira Salazar (R), from Likely R to Lean R). It also impacts Texas, where the 34th District, held by Vicente Gonzalez (D), moves from Toss-up to Lean D.
Republicans are running strong campaigns in many of these districts, but if the Dems’ generic ballot advantage lasts, the party’s ceiling could get higher.
Fox News Power Rankings on House forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Governor: Texas and Alaska drift away from the GOP
Data centers continue to play a major role in gubernatorial races across the country, especially in Ohio, where Fox’s Madison Alworth spoke to voters about the costs of data center construction yesterday, and in Texas, where incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott faces his toughest re-election challenge yet.
Fox News Power Rankings on gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Abbott’s competitor, Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, has put the issue at the forefront of both of their campaigns.
Yesterday, Abbott widened his moratorium on data centers, with the construction of new centers now “effectively halted” until at least December.
The governor has important structural advantages as he seeks a fourth term, but polls keep showing a close race. Texas moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Fox News Power Rankings on gubernatorial forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Finally, to Alaska, where new polling shows a close race for Senate, and what at first glance looks like a wide-open race for governor, with the Democrat ahead of three Republican candidates.
When the GOP candidates are combined, the party runs even with the Democrat in this poll. But Alaska is one of two states with ranked choice voting. If more Democrats mark their second, third and fourth choices than Republicans, it could hurt the GOP’s chances of holding on to the 49th state. It moves from Lean R to Toss-up.
Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.
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