2026-09-17T12:42:04.985Z / 路透社
华盛顿9月17日路透电 — 上周美国首次申请失业救济金人数意外下降，不过劳动节假期可能夸大了这一降幅， underlying 趋势仍指向劳动力市场持续稳定。
劳动力市场在经历夏季大部分时间的波动后已恢复平稳，这为美联储提供了专注于应对中东冲突引发的通胀的空间。美国央行周三上调了利率，这是2023年7月以来首次，并暗示未来数月将进一步提高借贷成本。
“上周异常低迷的申请人数可能反映了与劳动节相关的季节性调整问题，但整体形势依然令人鼓舞，”潘兴广场宏观经济咨询公司首席美国经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯说道。“就目前而言，美联储将继续聚焦于通胀问题。”
美国劳工部周四表示，经季节调整后，截至9月12日的一周，首次申请州失业救济金的人数下降10000人，至19.6万人。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预测当周申请人数为20.8万人。此次意外下降可能反映了上周劳动节假期前后的波动。对于移动公众假期前后的季节性波动，申请人数的调整难度较大。
四周移动平均申请人数被视为衡量劳动力市场趋势的更佳指标，因其能消除周度波动的影响，上周该平均人数下降2750人，至20.325万人。美联储主席凯文·沃什将劳动力市场列为“基本强势信号之一”，并补充称政策制定者认为“失业率基本与充分就业水平相符”。美联储将隔夜基准利率上调25个基点，至3.75%-4.00%区间。
此次申请人数数据涵盖了政府调查雇主以编制9月就业报告非农薪资部分的当周。八月和九月调查周期间的四周平均申请人数几乎没有变化，这表明劳动力市场状况稳定。
8月非农就业人数增加16.2万个，此前三个月就业增长大幅放缓。申请报告显示，在首次申请救济金一周后仍在领取失业救济金的人数（这是招聘情况的替代指标）在截至9月5日的一周下降39000人，经季节调整后为173.0万人。经济学家表示，所谓的持续申领救济金人数也受到了季节性调整问题的影响。
“持续申领救济金人数与2023年5月的水平相当，当时失业率仅为3.6%，”摩根大通经济学家阿比尔·莱因哈特说道。“持续申领救济金人数的残余季节性模式与首次申领救济金人数不同，9月下旬开始持续申领人数可能再次小幅上升。”
8月失业率为4.1%。低裁员率和较小的劳动力规模抑制了失业率上升。经济学家表示，面对包括美伊冲突在内的不利因素，企业仍不愿增加招聘，该冲突推高了油价并加剧了通胀。
受油价回落提振，美国股市开盘走高，但由于担忧中东冲突可能扩大，油价仍维持在每桶100美元上方。美元兑一篮子货币下跌。美国国债收益率下降。
首次和持续失业救济金申领数据
高抵押贷款利率施压住房行业
通胀上升推高了抵押贷款利率，给房地产市场带来压力。商务部人口普查局周四发布的另一份报告显示，8月未来独栋住宅建设许可下降1.8%，经季节调整后的年率为87.8万套。建筑许可同比增长1.3%。
当月许可数量下降之前，周三有消息称独栋住宅建筑商信心在9月跌至一年来低点。
全美住宅建筑商协会将士气低迷归咎于抵押贷款利率上升，以及移民限制导致的劳动力短缺加剧和进口关税推高材料价格。
自中东战争爆发以来，30年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率已飙升近80个基点。抵押贷款金融企业房地美的数据显示，上周该平均利率为6.76%，为一年多来的最高水平。
许可数量下降的影响盖过了独栋住宅建筑7.6%的强劲增长，达到91.8万套的年率。8月独栋住宅开工量同比增长5.2%。
对于五单元及以上住宅项目的建筑许可（这一板块波动极大），上月下降3.1%，至46.7万套的年率。整体建筑许可下降2.7%，至139.4万套的年率。8月整体建筑许可同比增长3.5%。
8月多户住宅建筑量暴跌22.5%，至34.4万套的年率。多户住宅开工量同比下降15.5%。整体住宅开工量下降2.6%，至127.5万套的年率。8月整体住宅开工量同比下降1.2%。住宅投资在过去六个季度中有五个季度出现收缩。
住宅开工量和建筑许可数据
“当前住房市场并非美联储关注的重点亮点，多重供应和价格冲击同时冲击了产出和需求，”高频经济公司首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格说道。“美联储无法通过货币政策解决该行业的问题。”
卢西亚·穆蒂卡尼报道；奇祖·野宫和安德里亚·里奇编辑
US labor market on solid footing; rising mortgages pressuring housing sector
2026-09-17T12:42:04.985Z / Reuters
WASHINGTON, Sept 17 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, though the decline was likely exaggerated by the Labor Day holiday, with the underlying trend pointing to continued labor market stability.
The labor market has regained its poise after wobbling through much of summer. That gives the Federal Reserve room to focus on fighting inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023 and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead.
“The exceptionally depressed number last week might reflect seasonal adjustment issues related to Labor Day, but the underlying picture remains encouraging,” said Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “For now, then, the Fed will remain laser-focused on inflation.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended September 12, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 208,000 claims for the latest week. The surprise drop likely reflected volatility around last week’s Labor Day holiday. Claims are difficult to adjust for seasonal fluctuations around moving public holidays.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,750 to 203,250 last week. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh singled out the labor market as “one basic sign of strength,” adding that policymakers believed “that the unemployment rate is basically running consistent with full employment.” The Fed’s overnight benchmark interest rate was hiked by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range.
The claims data covered the week during which the government surveyed employers for the nonfarm payrolls component of September’s employment report. The four-week average of claims was little changed between the August and September survey weeks, suggesting steady labor market conditions.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 jobs in August after job growth slowed sharply in the prior three months. The claims report showed the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 39,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.730 million during the week ended September 5. Economists said the so-called continuing claims had also been impacted by seasonal adjustment issues.
“Continuing claims are at similar levels to May 2023, a time when the unemployment rate was only 3.6%,” said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan. “The pattern of residual seasonality in continuing claims is different than for initial claims, and continuing claims could edge higher again starting in late September.”
The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in August. It is being held down by low layoffs and a smaller labor force. Economists say businesses remain hesitant to boost hiring in the face of headwinds, including the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which is driving up oil prices and stoking inflation.
U.S. stocks opened higher as investors took heart from a pullback in oil prices, though they stayed above $100 a barrel on fears the Middle East conflict could widen. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.
Initial and continuing jobless claims
HIGH MORTGAGE RATES PRESSURING HOUSING SECTOR
Rising inflation is boosting mortgage rates, putting pressure on the housing market. A separate report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau on Thursday showed permits for the future construction of single-family homes dropped 1.8% in August to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 878,000 units. Building permits increased 1.3% on a year-over-year basis.
The decline over the month in permits followed on the heels of news on Wednesday of a slump in single-family homebuilder sentiment to a one-year low in September.
The National Association of Home builders blamed the deterioration in morale on rising mortgage rates as well as worsening labor shortages because of an immigration crackdown and higher prices for materials amid import tariffs.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has jumped nearly 80 basis points since the Middle East war started. It averaged 6.76% last week, the highest level in more than a year, data from mortgage finance firm Freddie Mac showed.
The drop in permits overshadowed a 7.6% surge in single-family homebuilding to a rate of 918,000 units. Single-family housing starts increased 5.2% year-over-year in August.
Building permits for housing projects with five units or more, a very volatile segment, dropped 3.1% to a rate of 467,000 units last month. Overall building permits fell 2.7% to a rate of 1.394 million units. They increased 3.5% on a year-over-year basis in August.
Multi-family homebuilding plunged 22.5% to a rate of 344,000 units in August. Multi-family housing starts decreased 15.5% on a year-over-year basis. Overall housing starts fell 2.6% to a pace of 1.275 million units. They decreased 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in August. Residential investment has contracted in five of the last six quarters.
Housing starts and building permits
“The housing market is not the brightest dot on the Fed’s radar right now, with multiple supply and price shocks hitting output and demand all at once,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “The Fed cannot fix what is wrong in this sector with monetary policy.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
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