2026年9月16日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
钱包压力与普遍悲观情绪造就了对现状不满的中期选举选民群体
作者：达娜·布兰顿 福克斯新闻
年轻美国人在经济适用房危机中转向社会主义
福克斯新闻分析师卡特·廷普夫讨论了为何年轻选民越来越被社会主义吸引，她认为生活成本上涨让许多年轻人感觉被挡在美国梦之外。
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周三发布的福克斯新闻民调显示，过去一年约四分之三的选民对经济状况评价负面，认为自己财务状况下滑的人数是认为自己财务状况改善的三倍多。
在生活成本和经济成为选民最担忧的问题之际，绝大多数选民认为民主党更能妥善应对通胀。
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日常商品成本成为选民的负担：61%的人认为汽油价格是重大问题，较两年前的48%有所上升；52%的人认为医疗保健成本是重大问题，较2024年的44%有所上升。多数选民还认为住房成本（54%，较60%有所下降）和食品杂货价格（62%，较66%有所下降）是重大问题。
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自去年夏天以来，民众对关税的看法愈发负面，高达64%的人认为关税损害美国经济，较2025年的57%有所上升。大多数民主党人和独立选民认为关税有害，而共和党人的看法存在分歧（41%认为有助，36%认为有害，21%认为无影响）。
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总体而言，近三分之二的选民（63%）认为特朗普政府让经济变得更糟，其中包括四分之一的共和党人。
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所有这些都加剧了人们对未来的悲观情绪。认为下一代生活将更糟糕的比例从两年前的53%升至去年的62%，如今达到68%，仅比2022年的峰值70%低两个百分点。
仅有8%的人对政府的运作方式感到热情高涨，另有23%的人表示满意。68%的多数选民表示不满，其中高达33%的人“愤怒”——这一情绪在民主党人中占比56%，独立选民中占36%，而共和党人中仅占9%。
尽管面临这些经济逆风，距离选举日还有48天，对共和党人来说或许算是好消息的是，民主党在国会选票上的优势仍维持在个位数。如果今天举行选举，51%的人表示会支持本选区的民主党候选人，44%的人支持共和党候选人。民主党7个百分点的领先优势刚好超出本次调查的抽样误差范围。自1月以来，民主党一直以5至7个百分点的优势领先。
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女性、35岁以下群体、西班牙裔选民和拥有大学学位的白人是民主党人的优势群体，而白人男性和无大学学历的白人则是共和党的强项。
政党忠诚度略微有利于民主党，支持本党候选人的民主党人比例（97%）高于共和党人（92%）。独立选民以53%比31%青睐民主党候选人，14%的人尚未决定。
更高的投票积极性助力民主党：64%的人表示对选举“极其感兴趣”，而共和党人中这一比例为53%（民主党领先11个百分点）。民主党人中71%的人将自己的投票可能性在10分制中评为10分，即他们确信自己会投票，而共和党人中这一比例为65%（民主党领先6个百分点）。
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在肯定会投票的选民中，民主党在通用选票上的领先优势扩大到11个百分点（54%比43%）。
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这一领先优势在“摇摆县”同样存在——2024年总统选举中特朗普与前副总统哈里斯的得票差距在10个百分点以内的县，民主党候选人以52%比43%领先9个百分点。
“当专家和分析师谈论基本盘有利于民主党参加本次中期选举时，他们主要指的是经济因素，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党民调专家克里斯·安德森共同负责福克斯新闻民调。“本届政府及其支持者要说服选民情况正在好转，时间已经不多了。”
对两党都持负面看法的选民（“双厌恶者”）以26个百分点的优势支持本选区的民主党候选人。
民调显示，选民在多数议题上更信任民主党：通胀（领先15个百分点）、大型AI数据中心（领先14个百分点）、腐败（领先11个百分点）和外交政策（领先10个百分点）。两党在移民问题上的支持率不相上下（共和党领先1个百分点）。
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今年夏天之前，共和党在移民问题上拥有四年的优势，直到今年1月之前，他们在外交政策上也一直领先。四年前，共和党在通胀问题上的支持率领先9个百分点。
仅自7月以来，民主党在通胀问题上的支持率就上升了5个百分点。
认为民主党更值得信任的选民中，更多人将此归因于共和党的失败（51%），而非相信民主党的政策可能会降低物价（47%）。
这些看法导致特朗普的支持率仅为39%（61%的人不认可）。自4月支持率达到42%以来，他的支持率就再未超过39%。他当前的支持率落后于2022年同期前总统拜登的43%，与2014年中期选举前前总统奥巴马的38%持平。特朗普在移民问题上的支持率为43%，外交政策上为37%（比其历史最低值高1个百分点），通胀问题上仅为24%（与此前的最低值持平）。
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特朗普的支持率处境让他今年难以帮助共和党候选人。他的受欢迎程度落后于本党，净支持率为负24个百分点（38%支持，62%反对），自7月以来未发生变化。
60%的选民认为美国对伊朗采取军事行动是错误的决定，其中77%的人支持本选区的民主党候选人。
四年前，更多选民表示特朗普的背书会让他们更不愿意支持某位候选人，差距为15个百分点。如今这一差距扩大到26个百分点（25%的人更有可能支持，51%的人更不愿意支持）。
尽管如此，特朗普的支持率在共和党内部仍有意义：52%的共和党人和75%的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党人表示，这会增加他们的支持率。
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此外，53%的人认为特朗普政府比历届政府更腐败，而26%的人认为其腐败程度更低。
两大政党都被负面看待：民主党支持率为负11个百分点（44%支持，55%反对），共和党为负17个百分点（41%支持，58%反对）。
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近三分之二的选民支持对富人增税以扩大政府项目（65%）和重新分配财富（63%）。不过，52%的人反对对富人增税以确保“没有人变得过于富有”。
与此同时，对资本主义的不满情绪有所上升。57%的人认为如今美国的资本主义运作方式没有给人们公平的机会，较2019年的42%有所上升。这一转变跨越了政治立场，民主党人（上升17个百分点）、共和党人（上升13个百分点）和独立选民（上升22个百分点）的不满情绪均有所增加。
民调杂谈
当被问及在未列出选项的情况下国家面临的最重要议题时，34%的选民表示是生活成本，14%的人表示是经济/就业。紧随其后的是移民（8%）和共和党/特朗普/MAGA（7%）。仅有极少数人提到伊朗战争（4%）、腐败（4%）、医疗保健（4%）或AI/数据中心（1%）。
与美国民主社会主义者（DSA）相比，MAGA的支持率领先5个百分点（35%比30%），尽管15%的人无法对DSA做出评价。近三成的民主党人对DSA持负面看法，三成的共和党人对MAGA持负面看法。
总体而言，59%的人对工会持正面看法，其中包括48%的共和党人和73%的民主党人。
81%的选民支持禁止国会议员及其直系亲属和工作人员买卖股票（较1月的75%有所上升），包括八成的民主党人、共和党人和独立选民。
点击此处查看交叉表和原始数据
本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年9月11日至14日进行，由灯塔研究公司（民主党）和肖与公司研究公司（共和党）指导，共采访了1211名从全国选民档案中随机抽取的登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（96人）、手机（821人）或收到短信后在线完成调查（294人）。
基于全部样本的结果抽样误差为±3个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保人口统计数据符合登记选民群体的代表性。加权目标的制定依据包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。
福克斯新闻的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报告撰稿。
作为民意调查部门负责人，达娜·布兰顿负责福克斯新闻民调，并监督福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查。
Fox News Poll: Squeezed by costs, frustrated voters turn to the Democrats
September 16, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
Pocketbook stress and broad pessimism create a midterm electorate unhappy with the status quo
By Dana Blanton, Fox News
Young Americans turn to socialism amid affordability crisis
Fox News analyst Kat Timpf discusses why young voters are increasingly drawn to socialism, arguing that the rising cost of living is leaving many young people feeling locked out of the American dream.
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Roughly three-quarters of voters have rated economic conditions negatively for the past year, and more than three times as many say they are falling behind financially as getting ahead, according to a Fox News survey released Wednesday.
And by a wide margin, the Democrats are considered the party that would better handle inflation at a time when the cost of living and the economy are voters’ top concerns.
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Costs of everyday items are a hardship for voters: 61% say gas prices are a major problem, up from 48% two years ago, while 52% say the same for healthcare costs, up from 44%. Majorities also view housing costs (54%, down from 60%) and grocery prices (62%, down from 66%) as major problems.
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS OPPOSE THE IRAN WAR, SEE PROLONGED COMMITMENT
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Views on tariffs have grown more negative since last summer, with a high of 64% saying tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, up from 57%. Most Democrats and independents say tariffs hurt, while views among Republicans are mixed (41% help, 36% hurt, 21% no difference).
FOX NEWS POLL: COOL YOUR SERVERS! VOTERS REJECT DATA CENTERS
Overall, nearly two-thirds of voters (63%) say the Trump administration has made the economy worse, including a quarter of Republicans.
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All of this contributes to greater pessimism about the future. The portion saying life will be worse for the next generation has risen from 53% two years ago to 62% last year and 68% today, just two points below the high of 70% in 2022.
Only 8% are enthusiastic about how the government is working, with another 23% satisfied. A 68% majority is unhappy, including a high of 33% who are “angry” — driven by 56% of Democrats and 36% of independents vs. just 9% of Republicans.
Despite these economic headwinds and with 48 days until Election Day, maybe the good news for the Republicans is that the Democrats’ advantage on the congressional ballot has stayed in the single digits. If the election were today, 51% say they would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 44% the Republican. The Democrats’ 7-point edge is just outside the survey’s margin of sampling error. Since January, the Democrats have been preferred by 5-7 points.
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Women, those under age 35, Hispanic voters and Whites with a college degree give Democrats their edge, while White men and non-college Whites are strengths for the GOP.
Party loyalty slightly favors the Democrats, as more of them (97%) than Republicans (92%) support their party’s candidate.Independents favor the Democratic candidate 53-31%, with 14% undecided.
Higher engagement boosts Democrats: 64% are extremely interested in the election compared to 53% of Republicans (+11 D margin). And more Democrats (71%) than Republicans (65%) rate their likelihood of voting as a 10 on a 10-point scale, meaning they feel certain they will vote (+6 D margin).
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Among those certain to vote, the Democrats’ lead in the generic ballot grew to 11 points (54-43%).
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The edge holds among those in “close” counties, where the 2024 presidential vote between President Trump and former Vice President Harris was within 10 points; the Democratic candidate is favored by 9 points, 52-43%.
“When pundits and analysts talk about the fundamentals favoring the Democrats in this midterm, they are mostly referring to the economy,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. “Time is running out for the administration and its supporters to convince voters that things are improving.”
Those with a negative view of both the Democratic and the Republican Party (“double haters”) favor the Democratic candidate in their district by a 26-point margin.
Voters trust Democrats on most issues in the survey: inflation (by 15 points), large AI data centers (+14), corruption (+11), and foreign policy (+10). The parties are about evenly rated on immigration (R +1).
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Prior to this summer, the Republicans held a four-year advantage on immigration, and they led on foreign policy until January of this year. Four years ago, Republicans were preferred by 9 points on inflation.
Democrats have improved their ratings on inflation by 5 points just since July.
Voters trusting Democrats on inflation are more likely to attribute this to Republican failures (51%) than confidence that Democratic policies are likely to reduce prices (47%).
Those views contribute to Trump’s 39% job approval (61% disapprove). His approval has not exceeded 39% since April, when it stood at 42%. His current rating trails former President Biden’s 43% at this point in 2022 and aligns with former President Obama’s 38% before the 2014 midterms. Trump received 43% approval on immigration, 37% on foreign policy (one point above his record low), and 24% on inflation (matching a previous low).
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Trump’s standing puts him in a difficult spot to help GOP candidates this year. He lags his party in popularity, holding a 24-point net negative favorability rating (38-62%), unchanged since July.
Sixty percent of voters think the U.S. made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran, and 77% of that group favor the Democratic candidate in their district.
Four years ago, more voters said a Trump endorsement made them less likely to support a candidate by a 15-point margin. Today, that’s a 26-point gap (25% more likely, 51% less likely).
Still, Trump’s approval matters within the GOP: 52% of Republicans and 75% of MAGA Republicans say it increases their support.
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In addition, 53% say the Trump administration is more corrupt than previous administrations compared to 26% who say it is less corrupt.
Both major parties are viewed negatively: the Democratic Party is underwater by 11 points (44% favorable, 55% unfavorable) and the Republican Party by 17 (41-58%).
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Nearly two-thirds support raising taxes on the wealthy to expand government programs (65%) and redistribute wealth (63%). However, 52% disagree with increasing taxes on the wealthy so that “nobody gets too rich.”
Still, dissatisfaction with capitalism has grown. Fifty-seven percent say the way capitalism works in the U.S. these days doesn’t give people a fair shot, up from 42% in 2019. That shift spans political views, increasing among Democrats (by 17 points), Republicans (+13), and independents (+22).
Poll-pourri
When asked what the most important issue is facing the country unprompted by a list, 34% of voters say the cost of living and 14% say the economy/jobs. The next closest are immigration (8%) and Republicans/Trump/MAGA (7%). Only a handful mention issues like the war with Iran (4%), corruption (4%), healthcare (4%), or AI/data centers (1%).
MAGA holds a 5-point favorability edge compared with the Democratic Socialists of America (35% vs. 30%), although 15% are unable to rate the DSA. Nearly 3 in 10 Democrats view the DSA negatively, and 3 in 10 Republicans view MAGA negatively.
Overall, 59% view labor unions favorably, including 48% of Republicans and 73% of Democrats.
Eighty-one percent of voters favor banning Congress members and their immediate family and staff from trading stocks (up from 75% in January), including 8 in 10 Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
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Conducted September 11-14, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,211 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (96) and cellphones (821) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (294).
Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
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