2026年9月16日 美国东部时间下午3:09 / 福克斯新闻网
特朗普民调低迷、食品价格高企利好民主党，但重划选区和竞争席位减少令局势复杂化
作者：查德·珀格拉姆 福克斯新闻网
国会正就人工智能的未来面临关键决策，议员们在国会山辩论相关监管草案。福克斯新闻首席国会通讯员查德·珀格拉姆报道两党推动制定监管指南的动向。
NEW 您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章了！
blob:https://www.foxnews.com/68a6fd4d-7e0b-4cf0-b99a-d232d8fb9021
收听本文
8分钟
今年秋季的中期选举，我们是在沿用旧套路，还是新套路？
目前尚不清楚。很难下定论，只因近来政坛出现了太多“前所未有的”状况。
政治惯例被弃之不顾。近年来美国政治体制发生了剧烈震荡。大家都见证了，一位美国总统凭借选举人团票胜出但输掉普选。16年内两次出现这种情况（2000年和2016年），令人震惊——要知道在此之前这类情况仅出现过三次。
随后又有一位总统遭遇两次弹劾——却在数年后重返政坛。国会山骚乱事件发生，有关2020年大选结果的争议持续发酵。
福克斯新闻民调：选民在经济与政治不满情绪中期待重大变革
唐纳德·特朗普总统于2026年9月2日抵达白宫玫瑰园出席晚宴。特朗普邀请了将在11月选举中参与竞争席位的共和党候选人参加。（凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社）
如果按照旧套路，民主党很可能会在11月的选举中大获全胜。在总统任期内的首次中期选举中，执政党通常会失去约25个席位。中期选举往往是对总统的全民公投。这也是许多共和党人试图与唐纳德·特朗普总统保持距离的原因——毕竟他的民调支持率即使在情况好的时候也仅在35%至40%之间。汽油价格高企，食品价格暴涨，伊朗战争久拖不决，美国还与最重要盟友之一爆发贸易战。
按照旧套路，这预示着共和党将在今年秋季的中期选举中遭遇惨败。
但如果我们用的是新套路呢？
特朗普总统——以及部分追随他的共和党人——展现出了惊人的韧性，打破了政治惯性和传统惯例。众议院的控制权可能仅取决于少数几个席位的归属。如果选举安全和胜负合法性遭到质疑会怎样？还有重划选区的问题。从理论上讲，共和党可能在全国范围内为自己重新划定了5至6个有利席位。
如果选举结果胶着，我们可能无法在选举当晚知晓哪个政党将掌控众议院。也许要等几天——甚至更久。除非民主党取得压倒性胜利。
还有，别忘了我们刚才提到的执政党在首次中期选举中丢失大量席位的情况？没错，从某种意义上说，这是特朗普总统的“首次中期选举”。但又不完全是。他在2018年就经历过中期选举，那年的结果对共和党并不利。没有现成的历史数据可以参考，来显示一位总统在卸任数年后再度出山、胜选返回政坛后，其所在政党的选情表现如何。
此外，两党都大幅减少了具有竞争力的席位数量，这削弱了众议院中期选举中席卷政坛的“选举浪潮”效应。想想共和党在1994年和2010年的表现，以及民主党在2018年的表现。因此，尽管诸多因素都对民主党有利，但民主党要翻盘掌控众议院仍可能困难重重。
2018年，民主党人的支持率为44%。而本次选举中，这一比例为37%，与总统的民调支持率不相上下。2018年，选民受够了特朗普总统，希望做出改变。但由于今年的民调势均力敌，选民是否会因为反感特朗普就自然而然转向民主党，这一点并不明确。
另一个因素是投票率。
福克斯新闻实力排名：经济状况意味着什么？
2026年9月4日，华盛顿特区，美国国会大厦穹顶日落时分。（芬恩·戈麦斯/盖蒂图片社）
特朗普总统一直努力向选民传递一个信息：今年秋季的选举“他也在参选名单上”。这一策略有利有弊。从历史上看，特朗普的参选会推动选民投票率。2016年，60.1%的登记选民参与投票；2020年，惊人的66.4%的选民参加了投票；2024年，64.3%的登记选民完成了投票。
但考虑到总统的不受欢迎程度，选民意识到“他也在参选”，也可能会抑制他们的投票热情——至少会影响那些此前支持他的选民。这种影响会波及众议院选举。特朗普总统在拉动独立选民参与关键选举方面的表现并不理想——尽管他在2024年赢得了白宫宝座。
不妨看看以下数据：2018年中期选举，50.1%的登记选民参与投票；2022年中期选举仅为46.1%；2014年中期选举为36.1%——而2010年具有历史意义的中期选举中，共和党赢得了创纪录的63个众议院席位，投票率为41%。
特朗普“参选”的造势策略可能不会引起选民的共鸣。尤其是总统在前往达拉斯参加中期选举代表大会途中承认，汽油价格要到选举后才会下降。他还表示，美国将在中期选举前深陷伊朗战争。
那么我们该如何预判11月的选举结果？
如果没有明确的选举浪潮出现，确实很难判断。预测众议院控制权的最佳方式，就是逐个选区进行分析。而这是一项极其耗时费力的工作。
例如，密苏里州民主党众议员伊曼纽尔·克利弗还有选区可以参选吗？密苏里州共和党人今年早些时候试图将克利弗从其选区划走。随后一家法院上周裁定，该州必须沿用旧的国会选区划分方案——这可能意味着克利弗的席位是安全的。但另一名法官又裁定选民已经完成了初选投票。于是新的选区划分方案再度生效，克利弗可能会失去参选资格。
而这一切都发生在距离选举不到两个月的时间里。
密苏里州高等法院在中期选举前叫停共和党支持的国会选区划分方案；特朗普抨击这一“荒谬”裁决
玛丽安妮特·米勒-迈克斯众议员于2025年12月16日在华盛顿特区的美国国会山出席新闻发布会。（亚历克斯·王/盖蒂图片社）
艾奥瓦州是否会出现支持民主党的浪潮？该州的参议院席位和州长职位都对共和党构成威胁。如果出现这种情况，民主党有可能拿下至少两个甚至三个席位：共和党籍众议员玛丽安妮特·米勒-迈克斯、扎克·纳恩，以及可能因竞选参议员而卸任的众议员阿什利·辛森的席位。
俄亥俄州呢？该州的州长和参议院选举都具有竞争力。民主党的胜选势头是否会帮助民主党众议员格雷格·兰兹曼？针对共和党籍众议员马克斯·米勒的配偶和儿童虐待指控，是否会影响他在原本属于安全共和党席位的选情？民主党众议员马西·卡普图尔两年前仅以不到1000票的优势保住了席位——当时特朗普以11个百分点的优势赢得了俄亥俄州，包括卡普图尔所在的选区。重划选区实际上让卡普图尔的选区对她更为有利。但现年80岁的卡普图尔在8月遭遇车祸，影响了她的竞选活动。这会是一个影响因素吗？
弗吉尼亚州的民主党选情如何？共和党籍众议员珍·基根斯面临前民主党众议员伊莱恩·卢里亚的挑战——卢里亚在2022年的选举中被基根斯击败。前民主党众议员汤姆·佩里耶洛——曾在2008年凭借选区重新划分后的优势以黑马姿态胜选，却在2010年迅速败选——能否击败共和党籍众议员约翰·麦圭尔？
民主党籍众议员贾里德·戈尔登即将退休。前缅因州州长保罗·勒帕热（共和党）正在角逐戈尔登的席位。民主党为罢免共和党籍参议员苏珊·柯林斯而发起的行动陷入混乱，勒帕热是否会从中受益？毕竟，2024年特朗普赢得了缅因州三张选举人票中的一张，在该国会选区击败了前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯。
我们可以像这样逐个选区地分析整个选举地图。但如果没有选举浪潮，这就是准确研判众议院选举局势的唯一方法。
大多数传统的预判指标都指向民主党将在今年秋季赢得众议院控制权。但局势本不该如此胶着。
这就是为什么你必须依据选战套路来判断。
点击此处下载福克斯新闻APP
唯一的问题在于：今年的选举，我们到底是在沿用旧套路，还是新套路？
查德·珀格拉姆目前担任福克斯新闻频道（FNC）首席国会通讯员。他于2007年9月加入该媒体，总部位于华盛顿特区。
Reporter’s Notebook: House control could hinge on whether the old political rules still apply
September 16, 2026 3:09pm EDT / Fox News
Trump’s low polling and high grocery prices favor Democrats, but redistricting and fewer competitive seats complicate it
By Chad Pergram Fox News
Congress faces a critical decision on the future of artificial intelligence as lawmakers debate potential regulations on Capitol Hill. Fox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on the bipartisan push for guidelines.
NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!
blob:https://www.foxnews.com/68a6fd4d-7e0b-4cf0-b99a-d232d8fb9021
Listen to this article
8 min
Are we playing with the old playbook or a new playbook in the midterm elections this fall?
That’s unclear. It’s hard to determine, simply because we’ve seen so much that’s “new” in politics lately.
Norms are cast aside. The American system quaked to its core in recent years. You’ve witnessed an American president win the election by prevailing in the Electoral College but losing the popular vote. To have that happen twice in 16 years (2000 and 2016) is astonishing, considering the fact that such an outcome only unfolded on three occasions before.
You then had a president impeached twice – yet return to office a few years later. There was the Capitol riot, as arguing continued about the 2020 election.
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS WANT MAJOR CHANGE AMID ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DISCONTENT
President Donald Trump arrives to host a dinner in the Rose Garden of the White House on Sept. 2, 2026, in Washington, D.C. Trump invited Republicans running in competitive races ahead of the November elections.(Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
If this is the old playbook, Democrats likely light up the scoreboard in November. The party of the President typically loses about 25 seats in a president’s first midterm. Midterm elections are frequently a referendum on the President. That’s why many Republicans are trying to keep President Donald Trump at arm’s length, considering that his polling numbers are anywhere from the mid-thirties to 40 percent on a good day. Gas prices are high. Grocery prices are skyrocketing. The war in Iran lingers. There’s a trade war with one of America’s best allies.
On the old playbook, this portends a disaster for the GOP in this fall’s midterms.
But what if we’re using the new playbook?
President Trump – and sometimes Republicans aligned with him – have shown a remarkable resilience to defy political gravity and norms. Control of the House could come down to just a few seats. What if there are questions about election security and the validity of who won and lost? There’s redistricting. On paper, Republicans probably redrew about five to six seats nationwide in their favor.
If things are tight, we might not know which party wins the House on election night. Perhaps a few days down the road – if not later. That is, unless it’s a Democratic blowout.
And, remember what we said a few moments ago about the president’s party losing so many seats in that first midterm? Yes, in a way, this is President Trump’s “first midterm.” But not really. He experienced a midterm in 2018. Not that things went in the GOP’s favor that year. There’s no contemporary data on how the party of a President might perform after he’s been out of office and rallied to victory a few years later.
Also, the sheer reduction by both parties of seats which are in play mitigates political “waves” which crash across the political shoreline in House midterm races. Think 1994 and 2010 for Republicans. 2018 for Democrats.Thus, even though many of the factors favor the Democrats, the possibility remains it could be tough for the party to flip the House.
In 2018, the Democrats’ carried an approval rating of 44%. For this time around, it’s 37%. That rivals polling related to the President. In 2018, voters had had enough of President Trump and wanted a change. But because of the polling parity this year, it’s not so obvious that voters are so turned off by President Trump that they automatically gravitate to the Democrats.
Here’s another factor: turnout.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: WHAT’S IN AN ECONOMY?
The sun sets behind the U.S. Capitol Dome on Sept. 4, 2026 in Washington, D.C.(Finn Gomez/Getty Images)
President Trump has worked hard to tell voters that he’s “on the ballot” this fall. That cuts two ways. President Trump’s presence on the ballot has historically driven people to the polls. In 2016, 60.1% of registered voters showed up. In 2020, an eye-popping 66.4% of all voters cast ballots. And in 2024, 64.3% of those registered to vote did so.
But considering the president’s unpopularity, the cognizance of voters that he’s “on the ballot” could also deter them from turning out. At least those who previously supported him. And those impacts ricochet down to House races. The President’s track record at turning out independent voters in races which count wasn’t great down ballot – even as he won the White House in 2024.
Consider that in the 2018 midterms, 50.1% of registered voters materialized. Just 46.1% voted in the 2022 midterms. It was 36.1% in the 2014 midterms — 41% in the historic 2010 midterms where Republicans won a record 63 House seats.
This “Trump on the ballot” initiative might not resound with voters. Especially since the President conceded – en route to his midterm convention in Dallas – that gas prices wouldn’t decrease until after the election. He also said the U.S. is stuck with the war in Iran through the midterms.
So how do we know what to anticipate in November?
It’s really hard to read if there’s not a clear wave coming. The best way to postulate control of the House is by going race to race. And that is a painstaking process.
For instance, will Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., have a district in which to run? Missouri Republicans tried to draw Cleaver out of his district earlier this year. Then a court ruled last week that the Show-Me-State must use the old Congressional districts – likely meaning that Cleaver was safe. Then another judge ruled that voters already cast ballots in primaries. So the new maps were back and Cleaver may be out.
All of this less than two months before the election.
MISSOURI HIGH COURT BLOCKS GOP-BACKED CONGRESSIONAL MAPS AHEAD OF MIDTERMS; TRUMP BLASTS ‘RIDICULOUS’ RULING
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks speaks during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on December 16, 2025 in Washington, D.C.(Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Is there a groundswell for Democrats in Iowa where the Senate seat and governor’s mansion are in jeopardy for Republicans? If that’s the case, Democrats might have a shot of claiming at least two if not three seats there: Republican Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn and maybe the seat that Rep. Ashley Hinson is vacating in her quest to become a senator.
How about Ohio? There are competitive gubernatorial and Senate contests. Does a Democratic surge boost Rep. Greg Landsman, D-Ohio? Do the accusations of spousal and child abuse bounce embattled Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio., in what is otherwise a relatively safe Republican seat? Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, clung to her seat by fewer than 1,000 votes two years ago. But that was when President Trump carried the Buckeye State by 11 points – and Kaptur’s district. Redistricting actually turned Kaptur’s turf slightly more in her favor. But the 80-year-old Kaptur was in a car wreck in August, inhibiting her ability to campaign. Is that a factor?
How well do Democrats perform in Virginia? Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., faces former Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., who she vanquished in 2022. Could former Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Va., – who won in a 2008 upset in a differently-drawn district and promptly lost in 2010 – unseat Rep. John McGuire, R-Va.?
Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is retiring. Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) is running for Golden’s seat. Does LePage benefit from Democratic chaos in the effort to unseat Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine? After all, President Trump won one of Maine’s three electoral votes in 2024, capturing that Congressional district over former Vice President Kamala Harris.
We could bounce around the map, district to district, all day like this. But sans a wave, that’s what you must do to properly filet the House races.
Most conventional arrows point in the direction of Democrats winning the House this fall. Yet it probably shouldn’t be this close.
That’s why you have to go by the playbook.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
The only question is if this is the old playbook or new playbook?
Chad Pergram currently serves as Chief Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based out of Washington, D.C.
发表回复