2026-09-14T11:00:29.437Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/politics/senate-rankings-september-2026
距离选举日还有7周时间，美国参议院的控制权正处于悬而未决的状态：民主党在红色阵营发起攻势，共和党则希望在少数民主党掌控的蓝营席位上取得进展。
长期以来，民主党一直认为，当前的经济和政治环境，以及反对总统所在政党的历史逆风，让民主党拿下参议院多数席位、并对特朗普政府形成实质性制衡的目标近在咫尺。但在竞选的最后冲刺阶段，近期民调显示，他们可能需要比预期更多地采取防守策略，因为新罕布什尔州的一场关键对决引发了新的担忧。
尽管如此，民主党在全国层面仍保持乐观。总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持率仅为35%，根据CNN的民调汇总，他在选民中普遍不受欢迎，这可能对共和党候选人形成潜在拖累，民主党也因此将目标瞄准了更多红色州份。
包括高油价在内的经济状况目前似乎已成定局，特朗普曾预测，伊朗问题的战争不会在中期选举前结束。他与加拿大升级的贸易战也有可能扰乱密歇根州和缅因州的共和党竞选活动，这两个州可能决定明年参议院的控制权归属。
本月发布的路透社/益普索民调显示，46%的民主党选民“非常热切”希望在11月投票，而这一比例在共和党选民中仅为31%。共和党正试图动员其基础选民，由于特朗普不在选票上，历史上这类选民的投票率通常较低，共和党计划加大开支，并让总统更多地参与大选活动。
上周不同寻常的共和党中期代表大会充分展示了这一策略，主办方将其标榜为“特朗普狂欢节”。会上，总统承诺如果共和党保住国会多数席位，将向美国成年人发放5000美元支票。“就当我在选票上一样，”他说道。副总统JD·万斯则呼吁未决选民不要因为对伊朗战争的不满“因噎废食”。
另一个时代信号是，特朗普的政治网络，包括MAGA公司和新成立的“永不回头政治行动委员会”，终于开始启动。在总统承诺将斥资至多5亿美元支持共和党候选人后，这些机构已为未来几个月预留了数百万美元的广告预算。
目前，九个州将决定参议院的控制权归属。民主党需要拿下这份名单上六个共和党席位中的四个，同时保住自己的三个席位，才能维持多数，这一数学难题依然严峻。自上月的排名以来，部分州的形势发生了变化，新罕布什尔州和爱荷华州的排位出现了调整。
我们对11月最有可能易主的席位进行的排名，基于CNN的报道，包括与参与参议院竞选的战略家的对话，以及我们对候选人筹款、民调和各州党派环境的分析。该排名反映了当前竞选的态势，并将随着未来两个月秋季竞选的升温而发生变化。
随着邮寄投票已经启动，北卡罗来纳州仍是秋季竞选前夕最有可能易主的参议院席位。知名前州长、民主党人罗伊·库珀在对阵特朗普忠实支持者迈克尔·沃特利的竞选中保持强势。
高点大学8月中旬的民调显示，库珀与沃特利之间的竞选没有明确的领先者，而夏季的其他民调则显示民主党人优势更为明显。不过，最近所有高质量的民调都显示库珀的支持率至少达到50%，而没有任何一份民调显示沃特利的支持率超过45%。
在最近接受CNN采访时，库珀警告民主党人不要“自满”，两党的战略家都认为，这场竞选在未来几个月将进一步胶着。但库珀似乎仍占据上风。
这位曾在特朗普参选期间两次当选州长的前州长，将“降低物价”作为竞选核心议题，推出了“让物品成本更低”的宣传口号和巡回活动。“我知道物价大幅上涨，参议员的职责就是为此采取行动，”库珀在最近的一则广告中说道，该广告还引用了沃特利此前淡化通胀问题的言论。
与此同时，共和党候选人沃特利也在投放广告，宣传他对减税和负担能力的承诺，共和党还推出了攻击库珀在犯罪问题上立场的广告。
整个竞选期间，库珀在筹款方面都领先于前共和党全国委员会主席沃特利。根据竞选资金数据，3月3日初选结束至8月底期间，库珀的竞选开支几乎是沃特利的三倍，达到900万美元，而沃特利为320万美元，这得益于库珀强劲的筹款能力。
但根据AdImpact的数据，在此期间，共和党外部团体的支出约为2000万美元，而库珀盟友的支出约为1120万美元。8月，随着共和党人对保住这一关键席位的前景越来越焦虑，他们加大了广告投放力度。
而从9月初到选举日，共和党在广告预订总支出上领先民主党约6300万美元对5370万美元。与特朗普有关联的“永不回头政治行动委员会”在秋季广告中投入了超过500万美元。
特朗普将于周三与沃特利一同开展竞选活动，以期在这个他曾三次胜出的州动员共和党选民。
2. 缅因州
尽管民主党在今年夏天匆忙替换了饱受争议的候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳，但缅因州的参议院竞选仍是第二个最有可能易主的州。这场竞选似乎更多源于选民对现任共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯和特朗普的普遍负面看法，而非他们对新对手特洛伊·杰克逊的印象。
最近由SSRS实施的CNN民调显示，这场竞选处于真正的势均力敌状态，没有明确的领先者。调查显示，在可能投票的选民中，杰克逊的支持率为48%，柯林斯为45%，这一差距处于民调的误差范围内。
对柯林斯来说，更多的警示信号接踵而至：71%的杰克逊支持者表示，他们的投票是为了反对这位共和党参议员，而四分之一的柯林斯支持者表示，他们的投票是为了反对杰克逊。46%的可能选民表示，他们的投票是为了反对特朗普，大多数人——55%——表示希望民主党在明年掌控参议院。
总统与加拿大——缅因州最大的贸易伙伴——升级的贸易战也成为了新的争议点。除了选民已经面临的经济动荡外，关税可能对该州的多个行业造成破坏。
尽管柯林斯称最新的关税对缅因州来说是一个“错误”，并指出她已与政府官员进行对话以警示后果，但民主党似乎成功将她与特朗普绑定在一起。上月的福克斯新闻民调显示，该州超过一半的登记选民——55%——认为她的投票记录与总统过于一致，尽管柯林斯在竞选活动中试图保持一定的独立性。
但在竞选的最后冲刺阶段，共和党希望扭转局面。根据AdImpact的数据，8月共和党在缅因州的广告支出约为2500万美元，领先民主党约1690万美元；从9月初到选举日，共和党已预订了5100万美元的广告，而民主党同期预订了约3500万美元。
进入11月，女性选民是值得关注的关键群体。出口民调显示，2020年女性占选民总数的59%，并以微弱优势支持柯林斯对阵她的民主党对手。最近的CNN民调发现，54%的女性可能选民支持杰克逊，而39%支持柯林斯，这表明这位共和党参议员需要在这个可能决定选举结果的群体中争取更多支持。
密歇根州仍是第三个最有可能易主的州，两位候选人势均力敌，共和党将其视为首要的夺席机会。
最近由SSRS实施的CNN民调显示，这场竞选没有明确的领先者：民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在可能选民中的支持率为47%，共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯为44%，这一差距同样处于民调的误差范围内。
候选人的立场是选民决策的主要驱动因素，47%的可能选民表示，这是他们权衡的最重要因素。50%的人认为埃尔-赛义德的立场过于自由，而42%的人认为罗杰斯过于保守。
共和党试图利用公众对埃尔-赛义德的这一印象，将这位进步派候选人作为例证，声称民主党已经变得过于极端和激进。在上周的共和党中期代表大会上，这位前公共卫生官员是被提及最多的民主党政治家，罗杰斯和万斯的演讲中都提到了他。
罗杰斯及其盟友投放的广告将9/11政治引入了辩论，试图将埃尔-赛义德与左翼主播哈桑·皮克的争议言论联系起来，埃尔-赛义德已试图与皮克划清界限。在恐怖袭击25周年之际，共和党在中期代表大会上频繁攻击埃尔-赛义德与皮克的关联。
共和党还希望利用初选留下的民主党内部分歧，争取那些对埃尔-赛义德有关以色列的立场和过往言论感到不安的犹太选民，尽管埃尔-赛义德一直在努力缓和与该群体的紧张关系。
但罗杰斯仍面临挑战，因为选民对经济和特朗普执政表现的负面看法依然存在。
经济和生活成本是今年的首要关切，特朗普与加拿大的贸易战在密歇根州选民中引起了负面反响，64%的可能选民表示，提高关税是个坏主意。
作为擅长社交媒体的高效沟通者，埃尔-赛义德一直在抨击特朗普和罗杰斯的关税政策，指责该政策推高了该州的物价。罗杰斯则试图采取谨慎态度，表示关税有利有弊，并未公开批评总统的政策。
罗杰斯曾在2024年参议院选举中以微弱劣势输给民主党人埃利萨·斯洛特金，而特朗普当时在密歇根州胜出。他需要低投票率的特朗普选民在11月出来投票。但独立选民也可能成为关键，目前有迹象表明他们更支持埃尔-赛义德。在CNN民调中，埃尔-赛义德在独立选民中领先罗杰斯16个百分点。
自密歇根州有争议的民主党参议院初选以来的一个月里，大量广告资金涌入这个顶级战场选区，总支出超过2500万美元，双方支出大致相当。
在竞选的最后阶段，共和党在广告预订上的支出大约是民主党的两倍。根据AdImpact的数据，从9月初到选举日，共和党已预订了超过5500万美元的广告，而民主党仅安排了超过2600万美元。与特朗普有关联的“永不回头政治行动委员会”在这些广告购买中占了近1800万美元，这是该团体迄今为止投入最多的参议院竞选。
对这场竞选的高度关注反映了其对民主党至关重要的作用——如果失去这里的席位，民主党将需要在更多共和党州中争取席位才能保住参议院多数，同时这场竞选也可能成为2028年的试金石，届时将有一位进步派候选人作为民主党候选人参选。
俄亥俄州仍位列这份名单的第4位，是2024年特朗普以两位数优势胜出的州中最有可能易主的一个。
民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗在最近的州民调中领先被任命填补万斯空缺席位的共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。上月的福克斯新闻民调显示，布朗领先赫斯特德8个百分点，与该机构6月的民调结果相似。同一项调查还发现，51%的选民担心赫斯特德与特朗普过于亲近。
布朗针对赫斯特德的广告尤其有效，他抨击对手与莱斯·韦克斯纳的关联——这位俄亥俄州亿万富翁与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦关系密切，并批评他在数据中心问题上的记录。
共和党人承认数据中心问题杀伤力很强。全国共和党参议员委员会最近的一份战略备忘录被CNN获得，其中警告称，数据中心问题是赫斯特德的拖累。“布朗利用这一点是因为它有效，”备忘录写道。“在这场竞选中，没有什么比数据中心更能成为套在赫斯特德脖子上的锚了。”
赫斯特德试图调整策略，提出旨在限制数据中心对居民电费影响的立法。
共和党也对布朗发起了攻击。参议院领导基金推出了一则新广告，指责布朗按照党派路线投票，并将他与众议院议员亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科特兹和埃尔-赛义德等自由派领导人联系起来。
这场参议院竞选已成为两党的首要议题。根据AdImpact的数据，9月初至选举日期间，没有任何一场中期选举的广告预订总额超过这场竞选——超过1.87亿美元，其中共和党占1.07亿多美元，民主党占8000多万美元。
阿拉斯加州竞争激烈的参议院竞选在8月的全党派初选后仍位列第5位，初选提前展示了选民的偏好。
这场将采用排名选择投票制的大选将有四位候选人：民主党人、前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉；共和党参议员丹·S·沙利文；以共和党身份参选的前教师丹·J·沙利文；以及另一位共和党人杰拉尔德·海克斯。
佩尔托拉以49.5%的得票率领先，而沙利文参议员以41.4%的得票率紧随其后——这对民主党来说是一个可喜的数据。但这不一定能预测11月的选举结果。例如，佩尔托拉在2024年众议院席位初选中获得了51%的选票，但仍在当年的大选中落败。
共和党还面临选票上出现两位丹·沙利文的情况，共和党担心这可能导致选民混淆，在这场竞争激烈的选举中分散共和党选票。
特朗普在2024年以13个百分点的优势赢得该州，他已承诺为沙利文参议员助选。“我会出去为他而战，”特朗普本月早些时候说道。“我会去阿拉斯加，确保一位优秀的参议员获得连任。”
为了应对这场竞争激烈的秋季竞选，共和党正在调动资源。根据AdImpact的数据，从9月到选举日，共和党广告商已预订了价值2800万美元的广告位，其中“永不回头政治行动委员会”占1120万美元，参议院领导基金占790万美元。民主党则为这场竞选投入了约990万美元，其中很大一部分来自支持民主党候选人的WinSenate PAC。
顶级共和党外部团体已经开始投放广告攻击佩尔托拉并宣传沙利文参议员，批评这位民主党人在退伍军人问题上的记录，并赞扬现任议员在国会的努力。与此同时，佩尔托拉试图与民主党政治品牌划清界限——“我会挑战任何人，包括民主党人，”她在一则广告中说道，同时抨击她的共和党对手投票反对一项要求公布爱泼斯坦相关文件的法案。
新罕布什尔州在最有可能易主的州名单上跃升了两位，因为民主党对该参议院席位的掌控出现了松动迹象。
众议员克里斯·帕帕斯在周二的民主党参议院初选中以65%的得票率击败了民主社会主义者卡里什玛·曼祖尔。在共和党方面，前参议员约翰·E·苏努努击败了前马萨诸塞州参议员斯科特·布朗。
最近的民调显示苏努努与帕帕斯的竞争趋于胶着，共和党人对该州的前景越来越乐观。上月由新罕布什尔大学开展的民调显示，在可能选民中，苏努努的支持率为45%，帕帕斯为43%，表明双方势均力敌。而该机构在4月开展的同一项民调显示，帕帕斯领先苏努努7个百分点。
帕帕斯已经发出警告，称这场竞选对民主党夺取多数席位的路径至关重要。“这是一个摇摆州，一场竞争极其激烈的竞选，”帕帕斯上月告诉CNN的马努·拉朱。“我们必须守住这个席位，民主党才能实现夺回参议院多数席位的其他目标。”
根据AdImpact的数据，共和党团体已为这场竞选的最后两个月预留了超过3100万美元的广告资金，其中超过1200万美元来自参议院领导基金，另有1000万美元来自与特朗普有关联的“永不回头政治行动委员会”。民主党则预留了约1850万美元。
新罕布什尔州以其独立选民倾向而闻名，这可能在本次选举中发挥作用。该州在过去六次总统选举中都支持民主党，自2010年以来从未选出过共和党参议员。但自2016年以来，该州一直选出共和党州长，在多数选举中投票支持苏努努的哥哥克里斯。支持民主党的WinSenate PAC发布了一则新广告，提醒选民选票上的是哪位苏努努。
如果共和党在新罕布什尔州获胜，无疑将打乱民主党竞选地图，迫使民主党在更多红色州中争取席位。民主党人认为，这个哈里斯在2024年胜出的州最终会回归民主党，但这场胶着的竞选可能会让民主党在接下来的7周里保持警惕。
随着新罕布什尔州跃升至第六位，德克萨斯州仍是第七个最有可能易主的参议院席位。民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科让这场对阵德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿的竞选比共和党预期的更具竞争力，尽管特朗普在该州以近14个百分点的优势胜出。
民主党人认为，帕克斯顿饱受争议的过往和塔拉里科的广泛吸引力，让他们有机会在11月将德克萨斯州变成蓝色州。共和党则押注共和党选民会搁置帕克斯顿的丑闻，转而支持他为特朗普议程所做的工作。
特朗普上周在达拉斯举行的中期代表大会上将选举焦点放在了德克萨斯州，承诺将为帕克斯顿助选，同时也调侃了这位候选人的风格和外表。
塔拉里科在筹款方面占据优势，整个夏天几乎没有竞争对手地进行广告投放，投放了数千次广告，向选民介绍这位首次参与全州竞选的候选人，并强调生活成本问题。根据AdImpact的数据，从6月——帕克斯顿在与现任参议员约翰·科宁的决选中赢得共和党提名后不久——到8月底，民主党在广告上的支出约为3000万美元，而共和党仅为550万美元。
经过一番焦虑后，为帕克斯顿提供支持的共和党援军现在开始到位。到目前为止，共和党已为竞选最后几个月划拨了7700万美元的广告资金，其中包括来自支持帕克斯顿的Lone Star Liberty PAC、MAGA公司和德克萨斯州PAC的大额投资。与参议院领导基金有关联的德克萨斯州PAC最近预留了超过5150万美元用于帕克斯顿的竞选，这是该团体本轮首次大规模投入帕克斯顿的竞选，根据AdImpact的数据。
民主党同期预留了约1450万美元的广告资金，其中大部分直接来自塔拉里科的竞选活动。目前尚不清楚未来几周民主党团体是否会增加外部支出。
德克萨斯州是一个幅员辽阔、广告成本高昂的州，但共和党希望即将到来的广告攻势能将竞选拉到对自己更有利的位置。不过，民主党人认为，在这个孤星州实现蓝色胜利或许指日可待。
如果共和党拿下密歇根州和新罕布什尔州，德克萨斯州以及下一个可能在这份名单上互换位置的州将变得更加关键。
爱荷华州仍是一场竞争激烈的竞选，但由于其他竞选活动的态势变化，在本月的排名中跌至第八位。
共和党众议员阿什利·辛森——前新闻主播——与民主党候选人乔希·图雷克——州议员、残奥会金牌得主——之间的势均力敌的竞争在特朗普以13个百分点优势胜出的爱荷华州持续存在。
图雷克这位红州民主党人意识到了爱荷华州的政治动态，他最近的广告宣传了与特朗普在移民等问题上合作的两党承诺。“在参议院，乔希将与任何人合作，以清除腐败并确保边境安全——包括特朗普总统——他有700张投票记录可以证明这一点，”一则广告的旁白说道，旁白援引了图雷克在州议会中与共和党人投票的记录。
其他政治因素，包括化肥价格上涨和关税的影响，都给共和党带来了挑战。辛森被视为一位强势的竞选者，她的竞选活动紧密跟随总统的议程，但最近批评了他允许更多进口牛肉进入美国的决定，这一举措激怒了该州的养牛户。“我认为这是个坏主意，”辛森上月在爱荷华州博览会上翻转肉饼时告诉记者，这是爱荷华州博览会上的一项传统仪式。
共和党外部团体正在爱荷华州的参议院竞选中发挥作用。根据AdImpact的数据，从6月2日初选到8月底，共和党暗钱非营利组织“一国党”花费了1360万美元用于宣传辛森并攻击图雷克的广告。在此期间，共和党在广告上的总支出约为2350万美元，领先民主党约1460万美元。
共和党已为竞选最后几个月预留了近5300万美元的广告资金，其中2260万美元来自参议院领导基金。民主党则划拨了超过3600万美元用于同期广告，其中WinSenate PAC占比超过2900万美元。
除了参议院竞选，爱荷华州还有三场竞争激烈的国会选区选举和一场州长对决，民主党候选人罗布·桑德似乎在这场对决中占据优势，这意味着该州可能20年来首次选出民主党州长。桑德的胜利可能会帮助民主党其他候选人，包括图雷克，他让这场对阵辛森的竞选保持胶着。
佐治亚州仍是最不容易易主的州，尽管参议员乔恩·奥索夫是唯一一位在特朗普2024年胜出的州参选的现任民主党议员。
在民调、筹款和关注度方面领先共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯，这位第一任期参议员甚至引发了一些2028年总统竞选的猜测，尽管他坚称自己的注意力仍集中在2026年的选举上。
奥索夫抨击特朗普的言论已成为他竞选活动的标志性内容，激发了民主党人和捐赠者的热情，他们希望看到对本届政府更有力的制衡。他有关特朗普助手娜塔莉·哈普的言论吸引了更多关注，引发了白宫的愤怒回应，并占据了数日的新闻周期。
“他们让你为所有东西付出更高的代价，对我们撒谎发动战争，并且在过去一年里大部分时间都在为世界上最著名的恋童癖者掩盖，”奥索夫在周日的集会上对支持者说道。“与此同时，这个骗子总统和他的骗子家族在全球各地敛取了数十亿美元。”
与此同时，柯林斯面临一系列关于他与白人至上主义者关联的负面报道，包括CNN的KFile的报道。《华盛顿邮报》上月报道称，柯林斯的一名前工作人员在社交媒体上分享了纳粹卐字标志和三K党相关物品的图片。尽管柯林斯拒绝回答有关其关联的具体问题，但他的竞选团队一再强调这位国会议员谴责反犹主义并支持以色列。
参议院领导基金试图聚焦奥索夫的个人形象。一则广告中的人物声称：“花数千美元做头发和化妆，真是个虚伪的人。”广告继续称奥索夫应该“放下睫毛膏”，并称“这个漂亮男孩有着丑陋的记录”。这则广告包含多段人工智能生成的视频，显示奥索夫接受美容治疗。
“看到这些深度伪造视频被用于政治广告，令人深感不安。这正在滑向破坏政治辩论中真相的危险斜坡。出于这个原因，这则广告应该立即下架，”奥索夫回应道。
民主党在广告支出上领先共和党，这在很大程度上得益于奥索夫7700万美元的竞选资金。从9月初到选举日，民主党已预留了超过4000万美元的广告资金（其中一半以上直接来自奥索夫的竞选团队），而共和党则划拨了3100万美元。参议院领导基金投入了2600万美元，“永不回头政治行动委员会”预留了210万美元——根据AdImpact的数据，这是所有参议院竞选中投入最少的。
该州的选举动态——特朗普在2016年和2024年都赢得了该州——表明这场竞选可能在未来几个月收窄，但除非出现重大变故，这场竞选似乎基本由奥索夫掌控。
除了这九个州，我们还将在未来几个月密切关注以下几场竞选：
堪萨斯州：两党都在关注共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔与民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿之间的堪萨斯州参议院竞选。汉密尔顿是一位联合卫理公会大型教堂的牧师，筹款能力强劲。本月早些时候，马歇尔开始投放针对对手的攻击广告，副总统将于周一在该州主持一场MAGA公司的活动。汉密尔顿的竞选可能仍胜算不大，但足以让共和党在11月之前保持警惕。
蒙大拿州：蒙大拿州的参议院竞选将是一场三方大选对决：民主党候选人阿拉尼·班克黑德、共和党候选人库尔特·阿尔梅和独立候选人塞思·博德纳。一些知名的蒙大拿州民主党人，包括前参议员马克斯·鲍克斯和乔恩·泰斯特，都支持博德纳——这位前蒙大拿大学校长，而班克黑德拒绝了一些要求她退出竞选的呼吁。
内布拉斯加州：内布拉斯加州是另一场有独立候选人试图夺取共和党掌控席位的竞选。2024年参选失败的独立候选人丹·奥斯本正在挑战共和党参议员皮特·里基茨。这位独立候选人的胜算不大，但战略家们仍在密切关注。
The 9 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026
2026-09-14T11:00:29.437Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/politics/senate-rankings-september-2026
With seven weeks until Election Day, control of the US Senate is up for grabs as Democrats go on offense in red territory and Republicans look to make headway in a small number of blue-held seats.
Democrats have long believed that the economic and political environment and historical headwinds against the president’s party have put a blue Senate majority — and a consequential check on the Trump administration — within sight. But entering the final campaign stretch, recent polling suggests they may need to play more defense than expected as a key matchup in New Hampshire raises new concerns.
Still, the party remains optimistic on the national level, targeting deeper into red territory as President Donald Trump remains broadly unpopular with an approval rating of 35%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, creating a potential drag on GOP contenders.
Economic conditions, including high gas prices, seem to be baked in at this point as Trump has predicted th Iran war won’t end until after the midterms. His ramped-up trade war with Canada also has the potential to disrupt GOP campaigns in Michigan and Maine, two states that could determine control of the Senate next year.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month found 46% of Democrats were “very enthusiastic” about voting in November compared with 31% of Republicans. The GOP is looking to energize the base, which historically turns out at lower rates when Trump isn’t on the ballot, with ramped-up spending and increased involvement from the president in the general election.
The tactic was on full display in last week’s unusual GOP midterm convention, billed by organizers as a “Trump-a-palooza,” where the president vowed to dole out $5,000 checks to US adults if Republicans hold onto Congress. “Pretend I’m on the ballot,” he said, as Vice President JD Vance made an appeal to undecided voters to not “throw the baby out with the bathwater” over dissatisfaction with the Iran war.
In another sign of the times, Trump’s political networks, including MAGA Inc. and the newly formed No Going Back PAC, are finally starting to activate, reserving millions in advertisements for the coming months after the president promised to spend up to $500 million on behalf of GOP candidates.
For now, nine states will likely determine control of the Senate. The Democratic math remains tough: They need to flip four of the six GOP seats on this list plus hold onto three of their own. Some states have shifted positions since last month’s ranking, with movement in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point and will shift over the next two months as the fall campaign intensifies.
With mail voting already underway, North Carolina is still the most likely Senate seat to flip heading into the fall fight as Democrat Roy Cooper, a well-known former governor, maintains a strong position against Trump loyalist Michael Whatley.
A mid-August poll from High Point University found no clear leader in the contest between Cooper and Whatley, while other polling in the summer months showed the Democrat more solidly ahead. All of the recent high-quality polling in the race, though, has found Cooper holding at least 50% support, while none has found Whatley above 45%.
In a recent interview with CNN, Cooper warned Democrats against “complacency,” and strategists in both parties believe this race will further tighten in the coming months. But Cooper still appears to have the upper hand.
The former governor, who was elected twice while Trump was also on the ballot, has made affordability issues the centerpiece of his campaign with his “Make Stuff Cost Less” messaging and tour. “I know costs are way up, and it’s a senator’s job to do something about it,” Cooper said in one recent ad that also features past comments from Whatley downplaying inflation.
Meanwhile, the GOP nominee is up with ads about his commitment to tax cuts and affordability, and Republicans have leaned into spots attacking Cooper on crime.
Cooper has held a fundraising advantage over Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee, throughout the contest. After the primary on March 3 through the end of August, Cooper outspent Whatley on a campaign-to-campaign basis by nearly 3-to-1, $9 million to $3.2 million, enabled by Cooper’s strong fundraising.
But Republicans outside groups spent about $20 million compared with about $11.2 million from Cooper allies during that stretch, according to AdImpact data. The GOP ramped up spending in August amid growing anxiety over Republicans’ prospects of holding the critical seat.
And from the start of September through Election Day, Republicans outpace Democrats in total ad reservations by about $63 million to $53.7 million. The Trump-linked No Going Back PAC accounts for over $5 million in fall advertisements.
Trump will campaign with Whatley on Wednesday in hopes of turning out GOP voters in a state he won three times.
2. Maine
Despite Democrats’ scramble to replace controversy-laden nominee Graham Platner earlier this summer, the Senate contest in Maine remains the second state most likely to flip. The race appears to be driven more by voters’ broadly negative views of incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins and Trump than by their impressions of her new rival, Troy Jackson.
A recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS showed the race in true toss-up territory with no clear leader. The survey found Jackson at 48% among likely voters and Collins at 45% —figures within the poll’s margin of error.
In further warning signs for Collins, 71% of Jackson supporters said they see their vote as against the GOP senator, while a quarter of Collins’ backers said their vote was against Jackson. Forty-six percent of likely voters said they viewed their vote as opposing Trump, and a majority — 55% — said they want to see Democrats have control of the Senate next year.
The president’s intensifying trade war with Canada, Maine’s largest trading partner, has also emerged as a fresh flashpoint. The tariffs could prove disruptive to industries in the state on top of the economic turbulence already facing voters.
While Collins has called the latest tariffs a “mistake” for Maine and pointed out her conversations with administration officials to warn of the consequences, Democrats appear to have some success in their efforts to tie her to Trump. A Fox News survey last month showed more than half of the state’s registered voters — 55% — believe her voting record aligns with the president too often, despite Collins’ efforts to maintain some independence from him on the trail.
But in the final campaign sprint, Republicans are hoping to change the narrative, outspending Democrats on advertising in Maine by about $25 million to $16.9 million in August, according to AdImpact data, with $51 million in ads booked from the start of September through Election Day. Democrats have reserved around $35 million over the same stretch.
Heading into November, female voters are a key constituency to watch. In 2020, women made up 59% of the vote and narrowly favored Collins over her Democratic opponent, exit polls showed. The recent CNN poll found 54% of female likely voters favored Jackson, while 39% sided with Collins, suggesting the GOP senator has more work to do with a demographic that could decide the election.
Michigan remains the third most likely state to switch parties, with the two candidates running neck and neck and Republicans eyeing it as their top pickup opportunity.
A CNN poll recently conducted by SSRS showed no clear leader in the race with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47% among likely voters and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers at 44%, another margin that lands within the survey’s margin of error.
Candidate positions are driving voter decisions, with 47% of likely voters saying it’s the most important factor they’re weighing. Fifty percent say El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, compared with 42% who say that Rogers is too conservative.
The GOP has strived to capitalize on that perception of El-Sayed nationally, pointing to the progressive candidate to argue Democrats have become too extreme and radical. The former public health official was the most referenced Democratic politician at the GOP midterm convention last week, including in speeches from Rogers and Vance.
Rogers and his allies have run ads injecting 9/11 politics in the debate, trying to tie the El-Sayed to controversial comments made by leftist streamer Hasan Piker, from whom El-Sayed has sought to distance himself, with the general election underway. El-Sayed and his ties to Piker were fixtures of Republican attacks at the GOP midterm convention ahead of the 25th anniversary of the terror attacks.
Republicans are also hoping to take advantage of Democratic divisions left over from the primary, courting Jewish voters uneasy with his positions and past comments on Israel even as El-Sayed works to smooth over tensionswith the community.
But Rogers still faces a challenge in flipping the seat as he contends with voters’ negative views of the economy and Trump’s job performance.
The economy and cost of living are a top concern this year, and Trump’s trade war with Canada is resonating with Michiganders negatively, with 64% of likely voters saying the increased tariffs are a bad idea.
An effective communicator who is well-versed in social media, El-Sayed has hammered Trump and Rogers over the tariffs, blaming the policy for driving up costs in the state. Rogers has tried to strike a careful tone, saying there are both positives and negatives to the tariffs without overtly criticizing the president’s policy.
Rogers, who narrowly lost a 2024 Senate bid to Democrat Elissa Slotkin while Trump carried the state, will need low-propensity Trump voters to turn out in November. But independent voters also could be key, with signs they are favoring El-Sayed at this point in the race. In the CNN poll, El-Sayed has a 16-point edge over Rogers among independents.
In the month since Michigan’s contentious Democratic Senate primary, ad money has poured into the premier battleground race, totaling more than $25 million split about evenly.
For the final stretch of the campaign, Republicans have roughly double the Democratic ad reservations. According to AdImpact data, the GOP has booked over $55 million, while Democrats have slotted over $26 million from the start of September until Election Day. No Going Back PAC, the Trump-linked super PAC, accounts for nearly $18 million of those ad buys — the most the group has dedicated to any Senate race so far.
The intense focus on the race reflects the consequential role it could play for Democrats — losing a seat here would require the party to go deeper into GOP territory to secure a Senate majority — and the possible test case it could provide for 2028 with a progressive candidate at the top of the ballot.
Ohio remains at No. 4 on this list and is the state most likely to flip among those Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown has an edge in the most recent state poll over GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the Senate seat vacated by Vance. A Fox News poll last month found Brown up 8 points over Husted — similar to polling from the outlet in June. The same survey also found 51% of voters are concerned Husted is too close to Trump.
Brown’s ads against Husted have been particularly effective, taunting his rival over links to Les Wexner, the Ohio billionaire closely connected to Jeffrey Epstein and criticizing his record on data centers.
Republicans acknowledge the data center issue is potent. A recent strategy memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee and obtained by CNN warned the facilities are a drag on Husted. “Brown is using it because it works,” the memo said. “More than any other thing in this race, data centers are the anchor hanging around Husted’s neck.”
Husted has tried to recalibrate, introducing legislation aimed at limiting data centers’ impact on residential electric bills.
Republicans have tried their own attacks on Brown. The Senate Leadership Fund rolled out a new ad accusing Brown of party-line voting and linking him to liberal leaders such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and El-Sayed.
The Senate race has emerged as a top-line item for both parties. No midterms race has more fall ad reservations — over $187 million booked between the start of September and Election Day — with Republicans accounting for more than $107 million, and Democrats more than $80 million, according to AdImpact data.
The competitive Senate race in Alaska keeps its spot at No. 5 after August’s all-party primary offered an early look at voters’ preferences.
The general election, which will use a ranked-choice voting system, will feature Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman; GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan; Dan J. Sullivan, a former schoolteacher who filed to run as a Republican; and Gerald Heikes, another Republican.
Peltola led the pack with 49.5% of the vote, while Sen. Sullivan trailed behind her at 41.4% — a welcome data point for Democrats. But it’s not necessarily predictive of an outcome in November. For instance, Peltola earned 51% in the 2024 primary for her House seat but still lost the general election that year.
Republicans also are contending with two Dan Sullivans on the ballot in November, a scenario the GOP fears could lead to confusion and split the vote in the highly competitive race.
Trump, who won the state by 13 points in 2024, has pledged to campaign for Sen. Sullivan. “I’ll go out there to fight for him,” Trump said earlier this month. “I will go to Alaska to make sure that a great senator gets reelected.”
In anticipation of a competitive fall race, Republicans are mobilizing resources. According to AdImpact data, GOP advertisers have $28 million worth of ad reservations booked from September through Election Day, with No Going Back PAC accounting for $11.2 million and the Senate Leadership Fund providing another $7.9 million. Democrats have devoted about $9.9 million to the race, with a sizable amount coming from the blue-aligned WinSenate PAC.
Top GOP outside groups have been on the air attacking Peltola and promoting Sen. Sullivan, criticizing the Democrat’s record on veterans’ issues and praising the incumbent’s efforts in Congress. Peltola, meanwhile, has sought to distance herself from the Democratic political brand — “I’ll take on anyone, including Democrats,” she says in one spot, while hitting her GOP opponent for voting against a measure seeking the release of the Epstein files.
New Hampshire jumps up two spots on the list of states most likely to flip as Democrats’ grip on the Senate seat has shown signs of slipping.
Rep. Chris Pappas won the Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday with 65% of the vote against Karishma Manzur, a democratic socialist. On the GOP side, former Sen. John E. Sununu defeated former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.
Republicans feel increasingly bullish about the state after recent polling showed the contest between Sununu and Pappas tightening. A University of New Hampshire poll conducted last month showed Sununu with 45% support of likely voters and Pappas at 43%, indicating no clear leader. A survey conducted by the same group in April found Pappas up 7 points over Sununu.
Pappas has sounded the alarm, warning of the impact the race has on Democrats’ path to the majority. “This is a purple state. It’s a highly competitive race,” Pappas told CNN’s Manu Raju last month. “We’ve got to hold this race in order for the rest of the math to work for Democrats to take back the Senate majority.”
Republican groups have reserved over $31 million for ads for the final two months of the race, with more than $12 million coming from the Senate Leadership Fund and another $10 million from the Trump-linked No Going Back PAC, according to AdImpact data. Democrats have set aside about $18.5 million.
New Hampshire is well-known for its independent streak, which could come into play in this election. Granite State voters have sided with Democrats in the last six presidential cycles and have not elected a GOP senator since 2010. But they have picked GOP governors going back to 2016, voting for Sununu’s brother Chris in most of those races. The Democrat-aligned WinSenate released a new ad reminding voters which Sununu is on the ballot.
A Republican win in New Hampshire would certainly disrupt the Democratic map, requiring even more blue wins in red territory. Democrats believe this race in a state Harris won in 2024 will come home to them in the end, but the close nature could give the keep the party on edge for the next seven weeks.
With New Hampshire jumping up to six, Texas stays as the seventh Senate seat most likely to flip. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has kept the race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton more competitive than Republicans would like in a state Trump won by nearly 14 points.
Democrats believe Paxton’s controversy-laden past and Talarico’s broader appeal could give them a real shot at turning Texas blue in November. Republicans are betting GOP voters will put aside Paxton’s scandals and focus instead on his work supporting Trump’s agenda.
Trump put the election spotlight on Texas last week with his midterm convention in Dallas, promising to campaign for Paxton even as he made fun of the candidate’s style and looks.
Talarico has dominated the fundraising race and spent the summer months virtually uncontested on the airwaves, running ads thousands of times introducing the first-time statewide candidate to voters and emphasizing cost-of-living concerns. According to AdImpact data, between June — shortly after Paxton captured the GOP nomination in a runoff with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn — and the end of August, Democrats outspent Republicans on advertising by about $30 million to $5.5 million.
After much fretting, GOP reinforcements for Paxton are now starting to come online. Republicans so far have allotted $77 million for ads for the final months of the campaign, including big investments from pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC, MAGA Inc., and Texas PAC. Texas PAC, which has ties to the Senate Leadership Fund, recently reserved more than $51.5 million for Paxton and is making its first play for Paxton of the cycle, according to AdImpact data.
Democrats have reserved about $14.5 million in the same stretch, with the majority coming directly from Talarico’s campaign, according to AdImpact data. It’s unclear whether outside spending from Democratic groups will add to this total in the coming weeks.
Texas is a large and expensive state, but Republicans hope the incoming ad blitz will shift the race into more comfortable Republican territory. Democrats, however, are feeling a blue win in the Lone Star State could be in sight.
Texas and the next state, which could easily swap positions on this list, would become even more critical if the GOP picks off Michigan and New Hampshire.
Iowa remains a competitive race but drops to eight in this month’s rankings given the movement seen in some of the other contests.
The close matchup between GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former news anchor, and Democratic nominee Josh Turek, a state lawmaker and gold-medal winning Paralympian, has proved consistent in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
Aware of the political dynamics of Iowa, the red-state Democrat’s recent ads feature bipartisan pledges to work with Trump on issues like immigration. “In the Senate, Josh will work with anyone to clean up corruption and secure the border — including President Trump — and he’s got 700 votes to prove it,” a narrator in one ad says, citing Turek’s votes with Republicans in the state legislature.
Other political factors, including rising fertilizer prices and the impacts of tariffs, add to a challenging environment for Republicans. Hinson, who is viewed as a strong campaigner, has run closely to the president’s agenda but recently criticized his decision to allow more imported beef into the country, a move that angered cattle producers in the state. “I think it’s a bad idea,” Hinson told reporters last month after flipping pork patties, a rite of passage at the Iowa State Fair.
GOP outside groups are making their presence felt in Iowa’s Senate race. From the June 2 primary through the end of August, One Nation, the GOP dark money nonprofit, spent $13.6 million on ads touting Hinson and attacking Turek, according to AdImpact data. Overall, Republicans led Democrats in advertising for the race in that span by about $23.5 million to $14.6 million.
The GOP has reserved nearly $53 million in ads for the final months of the campaign, with $22.6 million coming from the Senate Leadership Fund. Democrats have allotted over $36 million for the same period with WinSenate accounting for over $29 million.
In addition to the Senate contest, the Hawkeye State features three competitive congressional races and a gubernatorial showdown where Democratic nominee Rob Sand appears to have an edge, raising the possibility the state could elect a Democrat as governor for the first time in 20 years. A Sand win could help Democrats down the ballot, including Turek, who has kept this race against Hinson close.
Once again, Georgia is the state least likely to flip despite Sen. Jon Ossoff’s status as the only incumbent Democrat running in a state Trump won in 2024.
Leading GOP Rep. Mike Collins in the polls, fundraising and the attention race in their midterm matchup, the first-term senator is even generating some 2028 buzz, although he insists his focus remains on 2026.
Ossoff’s anti-Trump broadsides have become a hallmark of his campaign, energizing Democrats and donors eager to see stronger pushback on the current administration. His comments about Trump aide Natalie Harp drew more eyeballs to his campaign, provoked an irked response from the White House and drove the news cycle for days.
“They made you pay more for everything, and lied us into war, and spent most of the last year covering up for the world’s most famous pedophile,” Ossoff told supporters at a rally Sunday. “All while the crook president and his crook family raked in billions, all over the world.”
Collins, meanwhile, has faced a slate of negative stories about his ties to White nationalists, including reporting from CNN’s KFile. The Washington Post last month reported on a former Collins staffer who shared images of a swastika and Ku Klux Klan paraphernalia on social media. While Collins has declined to answer specific questions about his associations, the campaign has repeatedly stressed the congressman’s condemnation of antisemitism and his support for Israel.
The Senate Leadership Fund has sought to focus on Ossoff’s own image. “Thousands on hair and makeup. What a phony,” claims an individual in the ad, going on to say Ossoff should “put down the mascara,” and that “pretty boy has an ugly record.” The ad includes several instances of AI-generated video that shows Ossoff receiving cosmetic treatments.
“It is deeply troubling to see these deepfake videos used to fabricate political advertising. And it’s a slippery slope toward the destruction of truth in political debate. And the ad should come down immediately, for that reason,” Ossoff responded.
Democrats are outspending Republicans fueled largely by Ossoff’s $77 million war chest. Democrats so far have over $40 million (over half coming directly from the Ossoff campaign) reserved from September through Election Day, while Republicans allotted $31 million. The Senate Leadership Fund has dedicated $26 million, while No Going Back PAC has set aside $2.1 million — the smallest amount for any Senate race, according to AdImpact data.
The electoral dynamics of the state, which Trump won in 2016 and 2024, suggest this race could narrow in the coming months, but barring a major development, this contest seems pretty firmly on Ossoff’s side.
In addition to these nine states, here are a few contests we’re keeping a close eye on in the coming months:
Kansas: Both parties are watching the Kansas Senate race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor with strong fundraising. Earlier this month, Marshall started running an attack ad against his opponent, and the vice president is headlining a MAGA Inc. event in the state on Monday. Hamilton’s bid may still be a long shot, but it could keep Republicans on their toes heading into November.
Montana: Montana’s Senate race features a three-way general election fight between Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, GOP nominee Kurt Alme and independent Seth Bodnar. Some prominent Montana Democrats, including former Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester, are backing Bodnar, a former University of Montana president, while Bankhead resisted some calls to drop out of the contest.
Nebraska:Nebraska is another race with an independent trying to flip a GOP-held seat in November. Dan Osborn, an independent who ran unsuccessfully in 2024, is challenging GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts. It’s an uphill climb for the independent but strategists are watching closely.
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