2026年9月13日 / 美国东部时间上午10:01 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：弗雷德·巴克斯、詹妮弗·德平托
共和党人和民主党人似乎有一个共识：他们都认为中期选举的核心是特朗普总统，尽管理由各不相同。
特朗普在选民心中的存在感如此之强，如果在选举日前这些民调比例保持不变，那么他将超越自己2018年创下的总统成为中期选举关键因素的纪录。
此次选举同样处于多领域不确定性的大背景之下：经济状况、通货膨胀、海外冲突，乃至人工智能的影响。
因此，与两年前一样，2026年的选民情绪正受到物价和通胀的推动，转而反对执政党。
这并非因为选民一定认为换个政党执政自己的日子会更好——大多数人都不认为任何一个政党能改善他们的财务状况。更多的只是出于反对现任政党的情绪。
与此相关的是，大多数选民更倾向于支持反对新增关税、反对伊朗冲突的候选人，而人们认为伊朗冲突与物价上涨有关联。
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的众议院席位预测模型可以将选民对国会的总体支持倾向——民主党目前领先——转化为具体席位，而这正是众议院选举的决定方式。
该模型目前预计民主党将获得228个席位，达到多数席位，但并非历史上的最大优势，距离众议院435个席位中获胜所需的218席仅一步之遥。如果未来几周更多选区的走势有利于民主党，模型预测的席位将升至230席以上；但在最悲观的情况下，席位将降至215席，这意味着共和党仍有机会保住目前微弱的众议院多数席位。
这在一定程度上是因为大量MAGA选民和2024年特朗普的支持者仍站在共和党一边，至少是出于对民主党的反对。
最直接的一点是，那些表示高物价让生活变得困难甚至更糟的选民，大多会投票给民主党。
民主党获得的支持更多来自选民希望阻止特朗普的政策，而非希望帮助民主党推行其议程。
大多数选民也不认为《一揽子宏伟法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill）在经济上帮助了自己。
投票热情
无论动机为何，表示自己对投票充满热情的民主党选民比例高于共和党选民。
在共和党方面，特朗普同样对投票率产生了影响，MAGA共和党选民正如他和共和党领导人所敦促的那样积极参与投票。
大多数MAGA共和党选民表示，尽管特朗普并未参选，但他们现在的投票兴趣与2024年时一样高。
然而，尚不确定这一情况是否适用于所有共和党选民，因为非MAGA的共和党选民表示一定会投票的比例相对较低。
对于大多数共和党选民来说，特朗普的背书会让他们更倾向于支持某位候选人。共和党人——尤其是MAGA选民——仍然对特朗普认可度很高，尤其是在移民问题上，他们更倾向于支持支持特朗普对移民海关执法局（ICE）的运作方式、关税政策以及对伊朗冲突立场的候选人。
归根结底，国会席位的最终归属将取决于几个关键群体和需要关注的动态，包括任何一方能否提出积极主张，证明自己能让民众生活得更好。
两党在这一点上都未获得多数选民的支持，民主党仅占据相对优势。
但对于民主党来说，民主社会主义者的背书在民主党基本盘之外并不讨喜——即便在基本盘内部，这种背书的效果也褒贬不一。
民主党发现，西班牙裔选民的支持率较2024年有所上升，其中大多数人表示更倾向于支持反对本届政府移民海关执法局政策的候选人。
通胀的影响与对两党的看法
特朗普在2024年胜选，部分原因是人们认为他能改善经济和物价。
他2024年的大多数支持者现在仍支持共和党，即便他们也认为物价高企是个难题。
这在很大程度上是因为他们仍然对民主党持负面看法。他们认为由民主党控制的国会对其文化和生活方式构成威胁。
汽油价格在共和党内部引发了一些分歧。大多数MAGA共和党人表示，在伊朗冲突期间，美国人应该愿意支付更高的油价。其他共和党人则不这么认为。
民主党人和共和党人大多认为人工智能会减少而非增加就业岗位，民主党人持这种观点的比例更高。
总体而言，相比支持在本地区建设新数据中心的候选人，选民更倾向于支持反对该举措的候选人。
大卫·范里珀对本文亦有贡献。
此次哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/舆观调查于2026年9月8日至11日期间进行，样本为具有全国代表性的2460名美国成年人。根据美国人口普查局美国社区调查和当前人口调查数据，以及2024年总统选举投票情况，样本按照性别、年龄、种族和教育程度进行了加权，以确保其能代表全国成年人。误差范围为±2.3个百分点。
共和党和民主党席位的预估数字来自哥伦比亚广播公司新闻与舆观共同开发的统计模型，该模型纳入了本次民调数据、过往投票情况及其他选区层面特征、人口统计数据和历史模式。这些预估数据存在统计误差。我们通过模拟多场选举，并根据历史民调准确性校准误差范围，得出了席位预估区间。我们报告的是模拟结果中的95%置信区间。这些预估数据反映的是当前两党的领先情况，随着选举临近收集到更多数据，预估结果可能会发生变化。
CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Trump motivating both sides, Democrats have edge in seats in fight for House
September 13, 2026 / 10:01 AM EDT / CBS News
By Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto
Here’s something Republicans and Democrats seem to agree on: They both see the midterms as being about President Trump, albeit for different reasons.
Mr. Trump is so much on voters’ minds that if this view holds at these levels through Election Day, it would surpass his own 2018 mark for a president being a factor in midterm elections.
This is also an election set against a wide backdrop of uncertainty on many fronts: The economy, inflation, conflict overseas, and even AI’s impact.
So, prices and inflation are driving voter sentiment in 2026 against the party in power, just as they did two years ago.
This is not because voters necessarily think they’ll be better off — most don’t think either party can help their finances. It’s more just out of opposition.
Related to this, most voters would prefer a candidate who opposes new tariffs and opposes the Iran conflict, which is seen as connected to higher prices.
CBS News’ House model helps translate general preference for Congress, where Democrats have a lead, into seats — which is, of course, how the House is elected and decided.
It currently puts the Democrats at 228 seats, a majority, though not an historically large one, over the 218 of 435 seats needed. The model estimate ranges into the high 230s if more breaks their way in the coming weeks, but at the lower bounds, it drops to 215, which means Republicans do have a bid to hold on to their current, narrow House majority from here.
That’s partly because a lot of MAGA and 2024 Trump voters are staying with the GOP, at least out of opposition to the Democrats.
Most straightforwardly, Democrats are getting the votes of people who say higher prices have been difficult or worse.
More of the Democrats’ backing is based on voters trying to stop Trump’s policies, rather than on trying to help the Democrats get theirs.
Most voters also do not believe the One Big Beautiful Bill has helped them financially.
Turnout
Whatever their motivation, more Democrats say they’re very enthusiastic about voting than Republicans are.
On the GOP side, Mr. Trump has a turnout effect, too, with MAGA Republicans responding as he and party leaders have urged them to show up.
Most MAGA Republicans say they’re just as interested now as they were in 2024, even though Mr. Trump is not on the ballot.
Yet there’s uncertainty about whether that will apply to all Republicans, since non-MAGA Republicans are comparably less likely to say they’ll definitely vote.
For most Republicans, Mr. Trump’s endorsement makes them more likely to back a candidate. Republicans — especially MAGA — continue to approve of him in big numbers, particularly on immigration, and they prefer a candidate who supports his approach to ICE operations, tariffs and the conflict with Iran.
Ultimately, the congressional seat range will depend on some key groups and dynamics to watch, including whether either party can make an affirmative case that they’ll make people better off.
Neither one has a majority on that. Democrats have a relative edge.
But for Democrats, the democratic socialist endorsement does not play well beyond the Democratic base — and even there, it is only mixed.
The Democrats see growth relative to the 2024 vote among Hispanic voters, most of whom say they prefer a candidate who opposes the administration’s approach to ICE.
Impact of inflation and views of the parties
Mr. Trump won in 2024 partially because people thought he could help the economy and prices.
The bulk of his 2024 voters now are staying with the GOP, even if they see prices as a difficulty.
That’s largely because they still hold unfavorable views of Democrats.
They see a Democratic-controlled Congress as a threat to their culture and way of life.
Gas prices spur some differences within the Republican Party. Most MAGA Republicans say Americans should be willing to pay more during the Iran conflict. Other Republicans don’t.
Democrats and Republicans each tend to think AI will decrease rather than increase the number of jobs, with Democrats even more apt to believe so.
On balance, voters would prefer a candidate opposed to new data centers in their area to one who would support building them.
David Van Riper contributed to this report.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,460 U.S. adults interviewed between September 8-11, 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.3 points.
The estimated numbers of Republican and Democratic seats come from a statistical model developed by CBS News and YouGov which includes data from this poll, past vote and other district-level characteristics, demographics and historical patterns. These estimates are subject to statistical error. We simulate many elections, with the error calibrated to include historical polling accuracy, to obtain a range of seat estimates. We report 95% confidence intervals from the simulations. These estimates describe which party is ahead today and may change as additional data are collected closer to the election.
发表回复