2026-09-10T16:11:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
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更新于：2026年9月10日 / 美国东部时间下午4:13 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
一份关键的通胀数据将于明日发布，这可能决定美联储是否会实施三年多来的首次加息。
定于美国东部时间周五上午8:30发布的8月消费者物价指数报告，是美联储官员在9月16日公布下一次利率决议前能获取的最后一份主要通胀快照。经济学家预计，上月物价同比上涨3.3%，较5月达到的4.2%的三年峰值有所回落。
这份8月报告将帮助美联储官员判断，近期的通胀回落是反映持续的趋势，还是在伊朗冲突推高燃油价格的背景下，通胀正变得根深蒂固。美联储抑制通胀的主要工具——这也是其核心职责之一——是提高借贷成本，从而给过热的消费降温。
在上一次美联储会议上，近半数政策制定者表示支持今年晚些时候加息。如果官员们下周投票上调基准利率，这将是2023年7月以来的首次加息，当时美联储正与四十多年来最严重的通胀作斗争。
“很明显，美联储的摇摆票决策者们正密切关注这份通胀数据，”海军联邦信用联盟首席经济学家希瑟·隆在谈及消费者物价指数报告时说道。
“我认为这才赋予了这份报告格外重要的意义，”她补充道。
周四，美国劳工部公布，衡量消费者通胀前环节的生产者物价指数8月同比上涨5.4%，高于7月的4.8%。受中东地区新一轮冲突影响，美国油价周四突破每桶100美元，而特朗普总统则加剧了与加拿大的贸易战，这表明关税仍有可能推高成本。
美联储的摇摆票决策者包括美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，他在本月早些时候的一次演讲中表示，如果通胀数据“过热”，他将考虑加息。但他补充道，如果8月消费者物价指数显示通胀朝着美联储2%的目标取得进展，他将愿意维持利率不变。
美联储主席凯文·沃什在有关美联储下一步行动的沟通中更为谨慎。不过，上月在杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度会议上发表讲话时，他表示，如果通胀未能以“足够快的速度”朝着央行2%的目标回落，美联储“还有工作要做”。
加息可能性有多大？
自2025年12月以来，美联储一直将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%的区间内。
然而，随着美联储应对中东战争带来的持续物价压力，投资者预计央行加息的可能性越来越大。根据芝加哥商品交易所联邦基金利率观察工具（基于30天联邦基金期货价格编制的预测模型）的数据，目前市场定价显示，美联储在9月16日的会议上将基准利率上调至3.75%至4%区间的概率为70%。
加油站油价依然居高不下，柴油价格周四创下每加仑近6美元的历史新高。专家在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示，其他推高通胀的因素还包括关税、不断上涨的医疗保险成本以及人工智能相关支出。
“消费者物价指数报告不太可能改变通胀进展有限的信号，反而应该能为美联储在9月会议上加息提供足够支撑，”美国银行证券的美国经济学家斯蒂芬·朱诺周四在一份研究报告中说道。
通胀报告预计将显示什么？
接受FactSet调查的经济学家预计，8月通胀率同比上涨3.3%，略低于7月3.4%的增幅。
不过，安永咨询公司首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示，美联储将更密切关注剔除波动性较大的能源和食品类别后的核心通胀，以监控高油价是否会传导至商品和服务价格。
接受FactSet调查的经济学家预计，上月核心消费者物价指数同比上涨2.4%，这将延续自6月以来的下行趋势。
“传统上，美联储的政策框架曾假设供应冲击罕见且短暂，因此可以忽略这些供应冲击，”达科说道。
“但现实已非如此。我们面临的供应冲击更加复杂，因此美联储必须仔细考虑这些大宗商品价格上涨、供应链成本上升、运输成本上涨向核心商品和服务的潜在传导效应。”
艾米·皮奇编辑
本报告由美联社协助撰写。
The CPI report arrives tomorrow. It could determine whether the Fed hikes rates next week.
2026-09-10T16:11:00-0400 / CBS News
By
Updated on: September 10, 2026 / 4:13 PM EDT / CBS News
A key inflation reading tomorrow could determine whether the Federal Reserve issues its first interest rate hike in more than three years.
The August Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is the last major inflation snapshot Fed officials will receive before announcing their next interest rate decision on Sept. 16. Economists expect prices last month rose 3.3% on an annual basis, reflecting an easing after reaching a three-year high of 4.2% in May.
The August report could help Fed officials determine whether the recent easing reflects an ongoing trend, or whether inflation is becoming stubbornly entrenched amid high fuel prices caused by the Iran war. Its primary tool for taming inflation, one of its core mandates, is to raise borrowing costs, which helps cool spending.
At the Fed’s previous meeting, nearly half of its policymakers said they would support a rate hike later this year. If officials vote to raise their benchmark rate next week, it would mark the first increase since July 2023, when the central bank was battling the highest inflation in more than four decades.
“It’s clear that the swing voters at the Fed are paying close attention to this inflation data,” Heather Long, a chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said of the CPI report.
“I think that’s what’s really giving it heightened meaning,” she added.
On Thursday, the Labor Department said the producer price index — which captures inflation before it reaches consumers — rose 5.4% in August from a year ago, up from 4.8% in July. U.S. oil prices topped $100 a barrel Thursday on renewed fighting in the Middle East, while President Trump has intensified a trade war with Canada, a sign tariffs still could push up costs.
The Fed’s swing voters include Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said in a speech earlier this month that he would consider a rate hike “if inflation comes in hot.” But he added that if the August CPI shows progress toward the Fed’s 2% goal, he would be willing to hold rates steady.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been more guarded in his communication about the Fed’s next moves. However, last month while speaking at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, he said the Fed will “have work to do” if inflation doesn’t drop toward the central bank’s 2% target at a “sufficient speed.”
What’s the likelihood of an interest rate hike?
The Fed has held its benchmark rate at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75% since December 2025.
However, investors are bracing for an increasing likelihood that the central bank will raise rates as it grapples with ongoing price pressures stemming from the war in the Middle East. Markets are now pricing in a 70% probability the Fed will increase its benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4% at its Sept. 16 meeting, according to CME FedWatch, which bases its forecast on 30-day Fed funds futures prices.
Prices at the pump also remain elevated, with diesel hitting an all-time high of almost $6 a gallon on Thursday. Other factors are also fueling inflation, including tariffs, rising health insurance costs and AI expenditures, experts told CBS News.
“The CPI report is unlikely to alter the message of limited inflation progress and should provide sufficient support for the Fed to hike rates at the September meeting,” Stephen Juneau, a U.S. economist at the Bank of America Securities, said in a research note Thursday.
What is the inflation report expected to show?
Economists polled by FactSet expect that inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in August, slightly below the 3.4% pace recorded in July.
However, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said the Fed will pay closer attention to core inflation — which excludes more volatile energy and food categories — to monitor whether higher energy prices are passing through to goods and services.
Economists polled by FactSet expect that core CPI rose 2.4% on an annual basis last month, which would extend a downward trend that started in June.
“Traditionally, the Fed used to think along a framework that would assume supply shocks were infrequent and short-lived, and therefore it could look through those supply shocks,” Daco said.
“That’s no longer a reality. We have more layered supply shocks, and therefore the Fed has to think carefully about the potential pass-through of these higher commodities prices, higher supply chain costs, higher transportation costs into core items.”
Edited by Aimee Picchi
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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