2026年8月28日 / 美国东部时间下午5:34 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：玛丽·坎宁安
玛丽·坎宁安是CBS MoneyWatch的记者，此前曾在《60分钟》、CBS新闻网和CBS新闻24/7频道工作，为哥伦比亚广播公司新闻实习生项目成员。
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当地时间周五，联邦上诉法院驳回了卡利希（Kalshi）阻止内华达州监管其平台上体育赛事投机交易的诉求，这让各州在争夺哪一级政府有权监管快速扩张的预测市场业务的斗争中取得重要胜利。
美国第九巡回上诉法院表示，卡利希未能证明监管商品期货交易的1936年《商品交易法》优先于内华达州的赌博法，也无法阻止该州监管与体育赛事相关的投注。法院称，这些预测市场合约并非联邦监管的“掉期合约”，而是体育投注。
“无论卡利希将其指定合约市场（DCM）上的体育赛事合约称作什么，其本质都是体育赌博，”第九巡回上诉法院法官瑞安·纳尔逊在法院判决意见中写道。
州与联邦的管辖权之争
各州与联邦政府正就哪一级政府拥有预测市场的主要监管权持续陷入法律斗争。预测市场允许用户对体育赛事、选举等诸多事件的结果下注。
目前约有20个州卷入了预测市场相关的诉讼，专家表示，这场争端很可能会上诉至最高法院。
今年4月的另一项判决得出了与周五判决相反的结论：美国第三巡回上诉法院裁定，监管衍生品市场的政府机构——商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）对卡利希平台上的体育赛事合约拥有独家控制权。
卡利希发言人达尼·莱弗在电子邮件中表示：“第九巡回法院在一个核心问题上同意了第三巡回法院的观点：联邦法律禁止各州监管像卡利希这样获得联邦许可的交易所的交易。尽管有第九巡回法院的判决，我们仍认为现行的CFTC监管规定并未禁止体育合约，而且无论如何，CFTC正致力于澄清这些规定。我们将寻求进一步审查。”
内华达州博彩管制委员会表示，该判决“证实了我们一直以来的立场。这就是体育博彩，需要由州政府进行适当监管。”
专注于金融改革的非营利倡导组织“更好的市场”（Better Markets）的法律总监多米尼克·弗雷达在电子邮件中表示，第九巡回法院的判决是“对法治以及每个建立了监管制度以保护本州居民免受赌博危害的州的决定性胜利”。
阿兰·谢特编辑
美联社为本报道提供了支持。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/wanna-bet-online-prediction-markets-wager-that-you-will/
Court hands U.S. states a win in fight over who regulates prediction markets
August 28, 2026 / 5:34 PM EDT / CBS News
By Mary Cunningham
Mary Cunningham is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. She previously worked at “60 Minutes,” CBSNews.com and CBS News 24/7 as part of the CBS News Associate Program.
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A federal appeals court on Friday rejected Kalshi’s efforts to stop Nevada from regulating speculation on sporting events on its platform, handing states an important win in the battle over which level of government has authority to oversee the rapidly growing prediction-markets business.
The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals said Kalshi failed to show that the 1936 Commodity Exchange Act, which regulates commodity futures trading, preempts Nevada gambling laws and bars the state from regulating wagers related to sporting events. Those prediction market contracts are not federally regulated “swaps” but rather sports bets, the court said.
“The substance of the sports event contracts offered on Kalshi’s DCM [designated contract market] is sports gambling, regardless of whether Kalshi calls them swaps,” Ryan Nelson, one of the 9th Circuit judges, wrote in the court’s opinion.
State and federal turf war
States are locked in an ongoing legal fight with the federal government over which level of government has primary regulatory oversight of prediction markets, which allow users to bet on the outcomes of sports, elections and many other events.
Roughly 20 states are involved in litigation over prediction markets, and experts say the battle is likely to wind its way to the Supreme Court.
A separate decision in April reached a different conclusion than Friday’s decision, with the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a government agency that regulates derivatives markets, has exclusive control over sports-related event contracts on Kalshi.
“The 9th Circuit agreed with the 3rd Circuit on a fundamental point: Federal law prevents states from regulating trading on a federally licensed exchange, like Kalshi,” Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said in an email. “Despite the 9th Circuit’s opinion, we still believe the CFTC regulations, as written, do not prohibit sports contracts, and in any event, the CFTC is working to clarify those regulations. We will be seeking further review.”
The Nevada Gaming Control Board said the ruling “vindicates what we have been saying all along. This is sports betting and needs to be properly regulated by the state.”
Dominick Freda, legal director of Better Markets, a nonprofit advocacy organization focused on financial reform, said in an email that the 9th Circuit’s decision is a “decisive win for the rule of law and for every state that has built a regulatory regime to protect its residents from gambling harms.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/wanna-bet-online-prediction-markets-wager-that-you-will/
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