2026-08-28T04:01:29.009Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/28/politics/trump-iran-war-ratcliffe-russia-putin
俄罗斯惨痛的历史孕育了国民一种暗黑式幽默感。
因此，当中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫本周飞抵莫斯科，据报道是要告知俄方他们正在输掉这场彻头彻尾的乌克兰战争时，俄方的东道主想必领会了其中的讽刺意味。
俄罗斯间谍首脑们或许会指出，唐纳德·特朗普总统和弗拉基米尔·普京总统一样，也深陷一场无法取胜也无法收场的战争——在伊朗。
两位领导人身处两场不同的冲突，却面临相似的两难境地：他们无法实现战争目标，却又不能体面撤军。
两人都是在明显低估了对手的韧性和作战能力后发动了敌对行动，而这些对手的常规军力和装备均远不及美俄军队。
普京和特朗普都发现自己的战术军事优势被乌克兰和伊朗的非对称非常规战术所削弱，后者率先使用了无人机等廉价新技术，开启了新的战争时代。
《纽约时报》在报道拉特克利夫的访问时指出，华盛顿外交政策圈许多人长期以来的担忧：普京未能得到关于战争走向的诚实评估。许多观察人士不禁质疑，特朗普对美国在伊朗战争获胜的乐观评估，是否也意味着他的核心圈子不愿向他传递坏消息，导致他同样被蒙在鼓里。
华盛顿和莫斯科对代价高昂的外国军事介入并不陌生；例如，两国都曾在阿富汗战争中颜面尽失。俄罗斯在乌克兰的灾难在某种程度上让人想起美国在越南的惨败。
尽管如此，两位如今深陷自己发动的战争的强人领导人之间的相似之处尽管贴切，但也仅此而已。
特朗普并未重蹈普京的覆辙，未将地面部队投入泥潭——根据战略与国际研究中心的数据，这一决定已导致超过140万俄罗斯年轻人死亡、受伤或失踪。
作为真正的专制领导人，普京在国内政治约束上远少于特朗普。如此惨重的伤亡代价在美国政治上是不可持续的。
此外，尽管普京正通过导弹和无人机空袭，将恐怖与死亡倾泻到乌克兰城市和电力设施上，但特朗普在战争中基本避免刻意针对平民和民用基础设施。不过，他并未就今年2月袭击伊朗一所学校造成近200名儿童和成年人死亡的导弹袭击事件作出全面公开说明，该袭击显然是使用了过时情报所致。
拉特克利夫此次突访俄罗斯之际，正值国际关系出现变数和不祥之兆，乌克兰和伊朗的战争 destabilize 了更广泛的中东地区，将世界大国卷入其中，并引发了地缘政治冲突升级的担忧。
这位中情局局长此行日程广泛。
据两位知情人士告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN），他警告俄罗斯不要对北约领土发动任何公开或秘密袭击，欧洲各地日益担忧普京可能会考验该联盟的防御能力。拉特克利夫还在与俄罗斯间谍官员的会晤中，敦促俄方切断对伊朗的经济和军事支持。
他的此行可能会让长期担忧特朗普对北约及其安全保障承诺的美国盟友稍感宽慰。尽管特朗普下调了对弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基总统政府的军事援助，引发了外界对其动机的质疑，但美国再次尝试结束乌克兰战争仍将受到广泛欢迎。特朗普仍未兑现今夏提出的一项明显提议，即允许乌克兰授权生产“爱国者”反导系统。
特朗普曾预言他能在24小时内结束乌克兰战争，但他的和平努力毫无进展。他反复声称普京希望和平，但事件不断打脸这一说法。
自战争爆发以来，美国一直以若即若离的姿态参与乌克兰战争。俄罗斯则在伊朗战争中扮演着幕后角色。
本周，美国在伊朗战争中的失误尤其受到关注，因为这场战争已进入六个月节点，拜登政府正从军事行动转向全面经济战。
俄罗斯可能对缓解特朗普在伊朗的困境没有多少战略兴趣。任何涉及乌克兰的交换条件都将因这位美国总统此前未能迫使基辅作出领土让步而落空。
CNN今年3月的报道称，根据多名熟悉美国相关情报报告的人士透露，俄罗斯向伊朗提供了美军部队、舰船和飞机的位置及行动情报。俄罗斯与伊朗共享的大部分情报，都来自其精密的在轨卫星星座拍摄的图像。
普京的反西方立场意味着俄罗斯一直在与美国和西方在中东及其他地区的影响力作斗争。他可能比特朗普有着更长远的规划，而特朗普的任期还有两年半就将结束。
尽管如此，华盛顿在对伊朗实施彻底经济孤立的新政策上，仍可以借助莫斯科——以及北京——的帮助。
“要让经济压力产生效果，（特朗普）必须能够与中国、俄罗斯以及其他伊朗主要贸易伙伴地区国家展开合作，”欧亚集团中东和北非常务董事菲拉斯·马克萨德周四对CNN国际频道表示，“我认为他要让中国合作将非常困难……与俄罗斯的情况类似。”
随着拉特克利夫此次访问的影响在周四逐渐显现，《华盛顿邮报》报道称，在他访俄之前，美国最新情报显示克里姆林宫认为美国因伊朗战争而实力削弱。
特朗普未能决定性地赢得这场冲突，不仅损害了美国的信誉，还耗尽了军火储备，加剧了海军和空军的紧张状态。因此，如果俄罗斯和中国等美国对手质疑华盛顿应对欧洲或亚洲任何危机的能力或意愿，也就不足为奇了。
“因为唐纳德·特朗普决定发动对伊朗的战争，却没有战略目标、没有作战计划、没有时间线、也没有撤军方案，如今他陷入了困境——没错，这当然对俄罗斯有利，”亚利桑那州民主党参议员马克·凯利周四告诉CNN的布丽安娜·凯拉尔，“顺便说一句，俄罗斯也在帮助伊朗。”
不过，特朗普辩称，他与普京的友好关系让世界更安全。他周四坚称，普京不会采取任何可能引发与西方冲突的行动。“我和他谈得很愉快。他不会攻击北约领土，”他在椭圆形办公室对CNN的克里斯汀·霍姆斯说道。
尽管如此，围绕拉特克利夫莫斯科之行的多层阴谋，为这两位面临共同战略难题、可能定义其政治遗产的领导人之间非同寻常的关系，增添了一个引人入胜的新转折。
伊朗战争对特朗普政治和个人生存的威胁，或许不像乌克兰冲突对普京那样关乎生死。但就像他在克里姆林宫的好友一样，他也被自己发动的战争逼到了墙角。
Secret CIA visit highlights Putin and Trump’s common strategic trap
2026-08-28T04:01:29.009Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/28/politics/trump-iran-war-ratcliffe-russia-putin
Russia’s harrowing history has bred a dark sense of humor in its citizens.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s hosts therefore surely appreciated the irony when he flew into Moscow this week, reportedly to tell the Russians that they are losing their debacle of a war in Ukraine.
Russian spy chiefs might have pointed out that President Donald Trump, like President Vladimir Putin, is also embroiled in a war — in Iran — that he can’t win and can’t end.
Two leaders in two different conflicts face a similar dilemma: They can’t achieve their war ends. But they can’t walk away and save face.
Each launched hostilities after apparently underestimating the tenacity and capacity of adversaries whose militaries were dwarfed by the conventional power and matériel of US and Russian forces.
Both Putin and Trump saw their tactical military advantage undermined by unconventional asymmetrical tactics by Ukraine and Iran that pioneered cheap new technologies like drones and a new era of warfare.
In its report describing Ratcliffe’s visit, the New York Times noted a concern long shared by many in the Washington foreign policy community that Putin is not getting honest assessments of the war’s trajectory. Many observers wonder whether Trump’s sunny assessments of US victory in Iran mean he’s also poorly served by an inner circle unwilling to give him bad news.
Washington and Moscow are no strangers to costly foreign entanglements; both, for example, were humbled by wars in Afghanistan. Russia’s disaster in Ukraine in some way recalls the US defeat in Vietnam.
Still, the parallels between two strongman leaders now stuck in wars they started, while apt, only go so far.
Trump has not copied Putin’s grave error of pouring ground troops into a quagmire — a decision that has left more than 1.4 million young Russians dead, injured or missing, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Putin, a true authoritarian leader, is less constrained than Trump by domestic dynamics. Such a toll would be politically unsustainable in the US.
And while Putin is raining terror and death on Ukrainian cities and power plants with missile and drone raids, Trump has largely avoided deliberately targeting civilians and civil infrastructure in his war. He has declined, however, a full public accounting of a missile strike that hit an Iranian school in February, killing nearly 200 children and adults, which apparently resulted from the use of outdated intelligence.
Ratcliffe’s surprise visit to Russia came at a moment of flux and somber omens in international relations as the wars in Ukraine and Iran destabilize the wider Middle East, entangle the world’s great powers and raise fears of widening geopolitical conflict.
The CIA chief had a broad agenda.
He warned Russia against any overt or covert attacks on NATO territory amid growing fears in Europe that Putin might test the alliance’s defenses, two people familiar with the matter told CNN. Ratcliffe also used his meetings with Russian espionage officials to encourage Russia to cut off economic and military support for Iran.
His mission could offer a measure of relief to US allies who’ve long fretted about Trump’s commitment to NATO and its security guarantees. And a fresh US attempt to end the Ukraine war would be widely welcomed, even if the president’s downgrading of military aid to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government raises suspicions about his motives. Trump still hasn’t followed through on an apparent offer this summer to allow Ukraine to license the production of Patriot anti-missile systems.
Trump once predicted he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, but his peace efforts have gone nowhere. His repeated claim that Putin wants to make peace is incessantly disproved by events.
The United States has been an arm’s-length player in the Ukraine war since the start. Russia has its own over-the-horizon role in the Iran war.
US missteps in Iran are especially in the spotlight this week because the war has hit its six-month mark as the administration turns from military action to all-out economic warfare.
Russia may have little strategic interest in easing Trump’s plight in Iran. Any quid pro quo involving Ukraine would founder on the US president’s previous failure to browbeat Kyiv into territorial concessions.
CNN reported in March that Russia has provided Iran with intelligence about the locations and movements of American troops, ships and aircraft, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue. Much of the intelligence Russia has shared with Iran has been imagery from Moscow’s sophisticated constellation of overhead satellites.
Putin’s anti-Western posture means Russia is constantly combating US and Western influence in the Middle East and elsewhere. He’s likely playing a longer game than Trump, whose term ends in two-and-a-half years.
Still, Washington could use the help of Moscow — and Beijing — with its new policy of utter economic isolation for Iran.
“For the economic pressure to bear fruit, (Trump) has to be able to get some cooperation with the Chinese, the Russians, and other regional actors that are the main trading partners for the Iranians,” Firas Maksad, Eurasia Group managing director for the Middle East and North Africa, told CNN International on Thursday. “I think he’s going to have a real hard time getting the Chinese to cooperate … It’s a similar situation with Russia.”
As the implications of Ratcliffe’s trip sunk in Thursday, the Washington Post reported that his visit was preceded by fresh US intelligence suggesting the Kremlin sees the US as weakened by the Iran war.
Trump’s failure to decisively win the conflict has not only bruised US credibility; it has also depleted munitions and strained naval and air forces. It would not be surprising therefore if US adversaries like Russia and China question Washington’s capacity for or interest in responding to any crisis in Europe or Asia.
“Because Donald Trump decided to go to war against the Iranians, without a strategic goal, without a plan, without a timeline, without a way out, and now he is stuck — yes, sure, that helps the Russians,” Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona told CNN’s Brianna Keilar on Thursday. “And by the way, the Russians are helping the Iranians.”
Trump, however, argues that his friendly relationship with Putin makes the world safer. He insisted on Thursday that there was no danger of Putin taking any action that could cause a conflict with the West. “I’ve had good talks with him. He’s not going to be attacking a NATO territory,” he told CNN’s Kristen Holmes in the Oval Office.
Still, multiple layers of intrigue surrounding Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow represent a fascinating new twist in the extraordinary relations between two leaders who face a common strategic conundrum that may define their legacies.
The Iran war may not be as existential for Trump’s political and personal survival as the conflict in Ukraine is for Putin. But like his friend in the Kremlin, he’s cornered by his own war.
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