专家称，朝鲜规模更大的核武库与日益深化的对俄关系，让华盛顿的影响力远不及2018年
2026年8月23日 美国东部时间早上5:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：摩根·菲利普斯
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随着唐纳德·特朗普总统试图重启与金正恩的峰会外交，他所面对的朝鲜拥有了规模更大的核武库、一个实力强劲的新盟友俄罗斯，且与特朗普第一任期相比，朝鲜达成协议的动机大幅减弱。
特朗普此番再度接触朝鲜之际，他仍在与伊朗陷入核僵局，这也再度揭开了他第一任期遗留的另一项未竟事务。不过与伊朗不同的是，朝鲜早已拥有成熟的核武库与多款运载系统，这让特朗普几乎没有通过军事手段消除这一威胁的可能，且达成协议的路径比八年前更为狭窄。
战略与国际研究中心朝鲜问题负责人维克多·查表示，特朗普或许将重启对朝外交视为转移外界对伊朗关注度的契机，同时也是减少美国对抗对手数量的机会。
“坦白说，我认为他想把头条新闻从伊朗身上移开，”查告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，他还认为特朗普将朝鲜视为一个完全不同的核挑战。“对于一个拥有50、60、70枚核武器以及多款运载工具的朝鲜这样的国家而言，确实不存在军事解决方案。”
特朗普披露朝鲜核武器的确切数量
2018年6月12日，新加坡圣淘沙岛峰会期间，唐纳德·特朗普总统（右）与朝鲜领导人金正恩合影。
这使得全面无核化协议愈发遥不可及。取而代之的是，更有限的谈判可能会聚焦于限制核试验与远程导弹试验、建立危机沟通渠道、削弱朝鲜与俄罗斯日益紧密的联系，或是达成一项保留金正恩核武库的和平协议。
“想要快速消除朝鲜核武库的全面大交易根本不存在，”军备控制协会防扩散政策主任凯尔西·达文波特告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，“朝鲜如今能比2018年提出更苛刻的谈判条件。”
特朗普本周表示，他预计将于今年年底前与金正恩会面。他将此前两人会晤时建立的私人关系称为重启外交的有利条件。
“我和他相处得很好，”特朗普说，“而且你知道吗？我和他关系不错，这是件好事，而非坏事。”
2019年6月30日，韩国板门店非军事区，唐纳德·特朗普总统与朝鲜领导人金正恩会晤。（凯文·拉马克/路透社）
一位不愿具名的白宫官员告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，两国领导人“将在合适的时机会面”，但该官员未提供会面日期、地点或筹备细节。
特朗普可能获得的回报是一份有限的协议，该协议能降低迫在眉睫的核风险，而非消除朝鲜的核武库。查列出了几项无需实现无核化的目标，包括正式禁止核试验与洲际弹道导弹试验、减少朝鲜与俄罗斯的联系，以及建立美朝之间的危机管理渠道。
查表示，特朗普还可能对和平宣言或条约感兴趣，这样他就能宣称在这场自1953年停战协定以来一直处于技术上未解决状态的冲突中取得了进展。
华盛顿的谈判筹码包括分阶段解除制裁、减少军事演习或调整美军部署、可能达成的和平协议，以及与美国总统直接接触的政治价值。而对于金正恩而言，一份保留其核武库的协议本身就可能被视为朝着朝鲜政权长期追求的、获得事实上核武器国家地位的目标迈出了一步。
金正恩或许还有另一个理由保持与特朗普的接触。查指出，总统在第二任期内动用军事力量的意愿，认为朝鲜可能将与特朗普保持持续接触视为降低冲突风险的一种方式。
特朗普或许已经打出了他的第一张谈判牌。查指出，总统削减了与韩国的联合军演，这也是特朗普在第一轮对朝外交期间采取过的举措。
朝鲜对此举不屑一顾，认为力度不足，并于次日向其东部海域发射了约10枚短程弹道导弹。
美国对手中国与朝鲜加强联系，习近平与金正恩即将开启会谈
2019年6月30日，韩国板门店非军事区，唐纳德·特朗普总统与朝鲜领导人金正恩会晤。（东亚日报 via 盖蒂图片社/盖蒂图片社 提供）
曾在特朗普第一任期内担任国家安全委员会朝鲜事务主任的安东尼·鲁杰罗表示，削减军演符合特朗普早前对朝外交的模式。
“我有点惊讶人们会对此感到意外。特朗普总统在第一任期就采取了同样的行动，真正令人惊讶的不是他这么做了，而是他等了这么久才这么做，”鲁杰罗告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。
在2018年新加坡峰会上，金正恩签署了一项广泛承诺，致力于实现朝鲜半岛的完全无核化。该协议未设定时间表或核查条款，而朝鲜如今已拒绝将无核化作为谈判的基础。
查表示，八年前，金正恩面临着更严厉的联合国安理会制裁压力，且粮食状况日益恶化。“在很多方面，特朗普当时拥有影响力。如今的情况截然不同，”查说。
这种影响力的转变在一定程度上源于朝鲜与俄罗斯日益深化的关系。朝鲜为俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争提供武器与人员支持，使其与一个能够提供经济和军事支持、同时保护朝鲜免受联合国安理会更多追责的强大盟友关系更加紧密。中国仍是朝鲜至关重要的经济伙伴。
即便如此，解除制裁仍可能是强有力的激励因素。鲁杰罗表示，如果美国不持续封堵朝鲜规避制裁的途径，制裁的压力就会失效。
“朝鲜总是抱怨制裁没有伤到他们，但随后这却是他们最先要求解除的东西，”他说。
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朝鲜官方通讯社发布的未注明日期的照片中，展示了“火星-14”洲际弹道导弹。（）
追回美国阵亡将士遗骸也能为特朗普带来具体的人道主义成果。新加坡协议包含了追回朝鲜战争期间在朝鲜阵亡的美国军人遗骸的承诺，朝鲜于2018年归还了55箱据称装有美军遗骸的箱子。
未来的协议可能会寻求重启在朝鲜境内的遗骸搜寻工作，美朝联合搜寻行动最后一次在朝鲜开展是在2005年。
但全面的裁军协议仍然不太可能达成。达文波特表示，特朗普应转而专注于降低核风险、减缓核项目发展的措施，包括暂停导弹试验、建立危机沟通机制，以及可能冻结核开发活动。
“理想情况是国际原子能机构的核查人员重返朝鲜，但这在谈判初期不会实现，”达文波特说。
她表示，即便验证铀浓缩活动的暂停会困难得多，卫星图像仍可用于监测反应堆运营、钚再处理和导弹试验。
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直接的危机管理渠道本身就具有价值——华盛顿目前没有与平壤建立既定的直接军事联络线。
“如果突然我们的雷达侦测到一枚弹道导弹在空中飞行，我们无法联系朝鲜询问‘这是你们的意图吗？你们发射了吗？’”查说。
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查还指出了朝鲜近期记录中的某种克制。拜登政府期间，朝鲜进行了多次洲际弹道导弹试验，包括2022年、2023年和2024年的发射，但自特朗普重返白宫以来，朝鲜尚未进行过洲际弹道导弹飞行试验。朝鲜自2017年以来也未进行过核试验。
任何协议都将考验美韩同盟。查表示，在多年没有谈判之后，首尔可能会欢迎重启对话，但会对涉及美军 troop 规模或军演的让步保持警惕。
查说，韩国可能事先并不知情特朗普会削减军事演习，但如果重启外交，首尔仍可能将美朝重新谈判视为总体上的积极进展。但从长远来看，韩国希望在谈判中发挥作用，并确保其联盟利益不会在与平壤的协议中被牺牲。
“真正的关键问题在于驻韩美军的存在，因为朝鲜希望美军撤离，韩国希望美军留下，而特朗普总统到底想要什么并不完全明确，”查说。
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6403827213112
Trump plays nuclear poker with Kim Jong Un — but who holds the cards?
Experts say Pyongyang’s larger nuclear arsenal and deepening Moscow ties leave Washington with far less leverage than in 2018
August 23, 2026 5:00am EDT / Fox News
By Morgan Phillips
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As President Donald Trump looks to revive summit diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, he faces a North Korea with a larger nuclear arsenal, a powerful new partner in Russia and far less incentive to strike a deal than it had during his first term.
Trump’s renewed outreach comes as he remains locked in a nuclear standoff with Iran, reopening another piece of unfinished business from his first term. Unlike Iran, however, North Korea already possesses a mature nuclear arsenal and multiple delivery systems, leaving Trump with little prospect of eliminating the threat militarily and a narrower path to a deal than he had eight years ago.
Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump may see renewed North Korea diplomacy as both a chance to shift attention from Iran and an opportunity to reduce the number of adversaries confronting the United States.
“I think he frankly wants to take the headlines off of Iran,” Cha told Fox News Digital, arguing that Trump also sees North Korea as a fundamentally different nuclear challenge. “There really isn’t a military solution for a country like North Korea that has 50, 60, 70 nuclear weapons and several delivery systems for those weapons.”
TRUMP REVEALS EXACT NUMBER OF NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS
President Donald Trump, right, stands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during their summit on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018.
That leaves a sweeping denuclearization agreement increasingly out of reach. A more limited negotiation could instead focus on restricting nuclear and long-range missile tests, establishing crisis communications, weakening Pyongyang’s growing ties with Moscow or reaching a peace agreement that leaves Kim’s nuclear arsenal intact.
“There is no grand bargain with North Korea that quickly eliminates the country’s nuclear arsenal,” Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told Fox News Digital. “North Korea can drive a harder bargain now than it could have in 2018.”
Trump said this week that he expects to meet Kim before the end of the year. He has cast the personal relationship that produced their earlier meetings as an asset for restarting diplomacy.
“I get along with him,” Trump said. “And you know what? The fact that I get along with him, that’s a good thing, not a bad thing.”
President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the demilitarized zone in Panmunjom, South Korea, on June 30, 2019.(Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
A White House official told Fox News Digital on background that the leaders “will meet at the appropriate time,” but the official did not provide a date, location or details about preparations.
Trump’s potential payoff is a limited agreement that reduces the immediate nuclear danger rather than eliminates North Korea’s arsenal. Cha identified several objectives short of denuclearization, including formally banning nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, reducing Pyongyang’s ties with Moscow and establishing a crisis-management channel between the United States and North Korea.
Cha said Trump is also likely interested in a peace declaration or treaty that would allow him to claim progress on a conflict that has remained technically unresolved since the 1953 armistice.
Washington’s bargaining chips include phased sanctions relief, reductions in military exercises or U.S. force posture, a possible peace agreement and the political value of direct engagement with the U.S. president. For Kim, a deal that leaves his nuclear weapons intact could itself look like progress toward the regime’s long-running goal of winning de facto acceptance as a nuclear weapons state.
Kim may also have another reason to keep Trump engaged. Cha pointed to the president’s willingness to use military force during his second term, arguing that North Korea may see continued contact with Trump as a way to reduce the risk of a confrontation.
Trump may have already made his first negotiating play. Cha pointed to the president’s reduction in joint exercises with South Korea, a step Trump also took during his first round of diplomacy with Kim.
North Korea dismissed the move as insufficient and launched about 10 short-range ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters the following day.
US ADVERSARIES CHINA, NORTH KOREA STRENGTHENING TIES AS XI, KIM SET TO BEGIN TALKS
President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meet inside the demilitarized zone in Panmunjom, South Korea, on June 30, 2019.(Handout photo by Dong-A Ilbo via Getty Images/Getty Images)
Anthony Ruggiero, who served as the National Security Council director for North Korea during Trump’s first term, said the reduced exercises fit a pattern established during the president’s earlier diplomacy with Kim.
“I’m kind of surprised that people are surprised. President Trump took the same action in his first term, and the only thing that’s really surprising is not that he did it; it’s that he waited this long to do it,” Ruggiero told Fox News Digital.
At their 2018 Singapore summit, Kim signed a broad pledge to work toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The agreement set no timetable or verification terms, and Pyongyang now rejects denuclearization as the basis for negotiations.
Eight years ago, Kim was under heavier pressure from U.N. Security Council sanctions and a worsening food situation, Cha said.
“And in many ways, Trump had the leverage. It’s a very different situation now,” Cha said.
That leverage has shifted in part because of North Korea’s deepening relationship with Russia. Pyongyang’s weapons and troop support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine have brought it closer to a powerful partner capable of providing economic and military support while shielding North Korea from additional accountability at the U.N. Security Council. China also remains a crucial economic partner.
Even so, sanctions relief could still be a powerful incentive. Ruggiero said pressure loses force if the United States does not keep closing the workarounds North Korea uses to evade it.
“The North Koreans always complain that the sanctions don’t hurt them, but then that’s the first thing they always ask for,” he said.
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The intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-14 is seen in this undated photo released by North Korea’s news agency.()
The recovery of American war dead could also provide Trump with a concrete humanitarian result. The Singapore agreement included a commitment to recover the remains of U.S. service members killed in North Korea during the Korean War, and Pyongyang returned 55 boxes believed to contain American remains in 2018.
A future agreement could seek to restart recovery efforts inside North Korea, where joint U.S.-North Korean recovery operations last took place in 2005.
But a sweeping disarmament deal remains unlikely. Davenport said Trump should instead focus on measures that reduce nuclear risk and slow the program’s growth, including a missile-test moratorium, crisis communication and a potential freeze on nuclear development.
“The ideal would be a return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, but that’s not going to happen early in the process,” Davenport said.
She said satellite imagery could still help monitor reactor operations, plutonium reprocessing and missile testing, even if verifying a halt in uranium enrichment would be far more difficult.
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A direct crisis-management channel could carry value of its own — Washington has no established direct military line to Pyongyang.
“If all of a sudden our radars pick up a ballistic missile flying through the air, we have no way of contacting North Korea to ask them, ‘Is this your intent? Did you send this?’” Cha said.
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Cha also sees a measure of restraint in North Korea’s recent record. Pyongyang conducted several intercontinental ballistic missile tests during the Biden administration, including launches in 2022, 2023 and 2024, but has not tested an ICBM in flight since Trump returned to office. North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test since 2017.
Any agreement would also test the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Seoul may welcome renewed dialogue after years without negotiations, Cha said, but it will be wary of concessions involving U.S. troop levels or exercises.
Cha said South Korea likely did not know in advance that Trump would reduce military exercises, but Seoul could still view renewed U.S.-North Korea negotiations as a net positive if they restart diplomacy. Longer term, however, South Korea would want a role in the negotiations and assurances that its alliance interests are not sacrificed in a deal with Pyongyang.
“Where the rubber really hits the road on this is the whole question of U.S. troops in Korea because North Korea would like them out, South Korea would like them to stay, and it’s not entirely clear what President Trump wants,” Cha said.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6403827213112
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