2026-08-22T05:04:44.404Z / reuters.com
华盛顿，8月22日（路透社）——随着伊朗局势陷入代价高昂的僵持，乌克兰、加沙等地的危机仍未解决，唐纳德·特朗普总统雄心勃勃的外交政策议程似乎陷入停滞，而他即将迎来11月的中期选举。
对于去年重返白宫并承诺要做一名“和平缔造者”、将解决国际冲突作为其第二任期议程核心的总统来说，这些挫折格外引人注目。
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特朗普已对记者的提问乃至美国盟友失去耐心。本周，他怒斥追问其外交政策问题的记者，并再次威胁轰炸阿曼——这个美国盟友正与伊朗谈判以重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。
今年9月7日的劳动节历来是选举竞选活动全面升温的节点，而共和党面临着这样的风险：海外未决冲突及其在国内引发的经济后果可能导致该党失去对国会的掌控。
伊朗僵局带来政治代价
特朗普在推动数周外交解决方案后取消了与德黑兰的谈判，并于周三宣布对伊朗伊斯兰共和国发起新一轮“经济战”，这显然承认了数月的军事打击并未迫使美国期望的让步。
随着通胀持续，伊朗局势推高汽油价格，特朗普的支持率再度跌至新低。路透社/益普索的最新民调显示，仅有33%的美国人认可他的执政表现。
其他斡旋和平的努力也陷入停滞。
周一，特朗普的谈判代表、女婿贾里德·库什ner空手而归，未能推进加沙和平协议谈判。而原计划库什ner与特朗普特使史蒂夫·威特科夫访问基辅以重启长期停滞的结束俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的谈判，至今仍未成行。
在包括加沙停火和逮捕委内瑞拉领导人在内的一系列早期外交政策成就之后，特朗普的执政记录越来越多地被停滞的外交努力所定义。
“特朗普成功挑战并打破了华盛顿令人心安的外交政策共识，但并未将这种打破转化为能为美国人带来实际成果的战略，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的研究员阿斯利·艾丁塔斯巴斯说道。
伊朗局势在国内考验特朗普
一位不愿透露姓名的特朗普盟友表示，与伊朗的冲突“极大地”困扰着总统，白宫内部对于如何解决该问题尚未达成共识。
如果投资者认定这场战争将持续下去，推高美国借贷成本并进一步限制特朗普的国内议程，那么压力可能会进一步加大。特朗普曾表示，为确保伊朗不会获得核武器，经济代价是值得的——尽管伊朗否认其寻求核武器。
“特朗普总统成功让美国重新赢得尊重，结果不言自明——九场战争得以结束，人质从加沙获释，贸易协定更加公平，如今伊朗将永远无法拥有核武器，”白宫发言人安娜·凯利说道。
一位特朗普政府高级官员表示，美国的制裁和海军封锁已经重创伊朗经济，使其“彻底破产”，并补充道，“总统未来几周可以动用更多手段。”
非传统风格成果喜忧参半
一些专家称赞特朗普愿意直面其他总统无力或不愿解决的问题。
“总统希望建立一个更稳定的世界，这意味着试图解决争端，无论是像乌克兰那样的热战，还是像贸易和产能过剩那样的冷战，”哈德逊研究所高级研究员尼克·斯奈德说道，他还补充称，特朗普还致力于解决卢旺达与刚果民主共和国以及泰国与柬埔寨之间的冲突。
特朗普颠覆了传统的和平缔造外交准则，依靠动用美国的经济和军事影响力，包括对盟友也如此，但这种非传统风格的成果喜忧参半。
他促成各方坐下来谈判以结束俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵，但这场二战以来欧洲最长的战争远未结束，周四俄罗斯最新的空袭造成乌克兰首都16人死亡。
在加沙，调解人担心以色列对加沙地带的加紧打击破坏了结束冲突的努力，因为以色列和哈马斯都对特朗普去年10月制定的和平计划所需的条件犹豫不决。在黎巴嫩，以色列周日的空袭造成11人死亡，尽管美斡旋的两国间和平框架仍在生效。
委内瑞拉取得了一项显著成就：美国军方未造成美军伤亡就逮捕了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。分析人士称，这次行动让特朗普相信，与以色列一同攻击伊朗也会顺利进行。
但他们也表示，这被证明是一个误判。他们认为，尽管伊朗经济疲软，但其领导人几乎没有妥协让步、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的动力，而特朗普却过于依赖施压手段。
“他痴迷于通过施压乃至奉承来迫使他人服从自己的意志，却无视他们的战略目标和国内政治。结果就是他不断碰壁、屡屡失败，”卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员斯蒂芬·沃特海姆说道。
与此同时，政治倒计时正在进行，特朗普的共和党面临选举，可能会失去参众两院一个或两个议院的控制权，并大幅削弱他在剩余两年任期内推进议程的能力。
分析人士称，特朗普依赖施压手段可以迫使对手坐到谈判桌前，但往往无法达成持久解决方案，这种态势可能会鼓励对手与他耗时间。
“美国的对手们明白，他的政治任期比他们短，尽管美国可以施加巨大的施压压力，但最终可能会失去耐心，”艾丁塔斯巴斯说道。
“因此，普京、习近平和伊朗可能会选择与华盛顿耗下去。11月之后，等待特朗普的动机将更加明显。”
本报记者胡梅拉·帕穆克、安德里亚·沙拉尔、史蒂夫·霍兰报道；唐·杜菲、霍华德·戈勒编辑
Trump heads into midterms short on foreign policy wins
2026-08-22T05:04:44.404Z / reuters.com
WASHINGTON, Aug 22 (Reuters) – With the Iran war now at a costly standoff and crises from Ukraine to Gaza still unresolved, President Donald Trump’s ambitious foreign policy agenda appears stuck as he heads into November’s midterm elections.
The setbacks are striking for a president who returned to office last year promising to be a “peacemaker” and made resolving international conflicts a centerpiece of his second-term agenda.
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Trump has grown impatient with reporters’ questions and even U.S. allies. This week, he lashed out at reporters pressing him on foreign policy issues and renewed his threat to bomb Oman, a U.S. ally negotiating with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Labor Day, on September 7 this year, is traditionally when election campaigns kick into high gear, and Republicans face the prospect that unresolved conflicts abroad and their economic fallout at home could cost the party its hold on Congress.
IRAN STALEMATE TAKES POLITICAL TOLL
Trump has called off talks with Tehran after pushing for weeks for a diplomatic solution and announced on Wednesday a new campaign of “economic warfare” against the Islamic Republic in an apparent acknowledgment that months of military attacks have not forced the concessions the U.S. wants to see.
As inflation persists and the Iran war drives up gasoline prices, Trump’s approval rating has fallen to another low point with just 33% of Americans in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll approving of his performance.
Other efforts to broker peace have also stalled.
On Monday, Trump’s negotiator and son-in-law Jared Kushner left empty-handed from talks to advance a Gaza peace deal. And an expected visit to Kyiv by Kushner and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff to revive long-stalled negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine has yet to happen.
After a string of early foreign policy achievements, including a Gaza ceasefire and the capture of Venezuela’s leader, Trump’s record has become increasingly defined by his stalled diplomatic efforts.
“Trump has successfully challenged and disrupted the comfortable foreign policy consensus in Washington, but has not translated that disruption into a strategy with deliverables for Americans,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.
IRAN WAR TESTS TRUMP AT HOME
The conflict with Iran has weighed “intensely” on the president and there is no consensus inside the White House on how to resolve it, one Trump ally said on condition of anonymity.
The pressure could increase if investors conclude the war will drag on, driving up U.S. borrowing costs and further constraining Trump’s domestic agenda. Trump has said the economic costs are worth it in order to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon despite Iran’s denials it seeks one.
“President Trump has successfully made America respected again, and the results speak for themselves – nine wars have ended, hostages have been freed from Gaza, trade deals are fairer, and now, Iran will be prevented from ever possessing a nuclear weapon,” said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly.
A senior Trump administration official said U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade had crippled Iran’s economy and left it “completely broke,” adding, “There are many levers the president can crank harder in the weeks ahead.”
AN UNORTHODOX STYLE WITH MIXED RESULTS
Some experts give Trump credit for a willingness to grapple with issues they believe other presidents have been unable or unwilling to solve.
“The president wants a more stable world and that means attempting to resolve disputes, whether hot like Ukraine or cold like trade and overcapacity,” said Nick Snyder, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, adding that Trump also worked to settle conflicts between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo and Thailand and Cambodia.
Trump has upended traditional diplomatic norms of peacemaking, relying on leveraging America’s economic and military might including with U.S. allies, but that unorthodox style has yielded mixed results.
He brought parties to the table with the aim of ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the longest war in Europe since World War Two is nowhere near ending, with the latest Russian airstrikes killing 16 people in the Ukrainian capital on Thursday.
In Gaza, mediators fear that intensifying Israeli strikes on the enclave undermine efforts to end the conflict as both Israel and Hamas balk at conditions needed to advance a peace plan Trump forged in October last year. In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes killed 11 people on Sunday even as a U.S.-mediated peace framework between the two countries remains in effect.
One notable success came in Venezuela, where the U.S. military captured President Nicolas Maduro without U.S. casualties. Analysts say the operation helped convince Trump that joining Israel in attacking Iran would also proceed smoothly.
But they also say that proved a miscalculation. They argue Trump has relied too heavily on applying coercive pressure even though Iran’s leaders have little incentive to back down and reopen the Strait of Hormuz despite the country’s weakening economy.
“He is obsessed with applying coercion, and sometimes flattery, to bend others to his will, but oblivious to their strategic goals and domestic politics. As a result, he keeps flailing and failing,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Meanwhile, the political clock is ticking, with Trump’s Republican Party facing elections that could cost it control of one or both chambers of Congress and sharply curtail his ability to advance his agenda during his final two years in office.
Analysts say Trump’s reliance on coercive pressure can bring adversaries to the table but often fails to produce lasting settlements, a dynamic that may encourage rivals to wait him out.
“U.S. adversaries understand that his political clock is shorter than theirs, and that while the United States can apply enormous coercive pressure, it may eventually lose patience,” Aydintasbas said.
“Putin, Xi and Iran may therefore want to wait out Washington. After November, the incentive to wait out Trump will become even more pronounced.”
Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Andrea Shalal and Steve Holland; Editing by Don Durfee and Howard Goller
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