CNN预测：民主党人艾莎·瓦哈卜将赢得斯沃威尔的国会席位，挫败美以公共事务委员会数百万美元的开支

Democrat Aisha Wahab will win Swalwell’s House seat, CNN projects, overcoming millions in AIPAC spending

2026-08-20T22:41:27.377Z / CNN

Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab will win the special election runoff to finish former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s term in California’s 14th District, CNN’s Decision Desk projects.

In recent weeks, the Bay Area race to replace the former congressman, who resigned amid sexual assault allegations, became another test of Democratic divides over Israel. Super PACs aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee poured millions of dollars into ads attacking the progressive and bolstering her opponent, Democrat Melissa Hernandez, who is president of the Bay Area Rapid Transit Board.

“I’m very proud of this district for not listening to the hate-mongering and really knowing and believing the work that I’ve done,” Wahab told KQED on Tuesday night, after the first votes reported showed her with a slim lead.

Neither candidate focused on Israel in their campaign, but Wahab has called for cutting US military aid to the country and, when asked in a candidate forum, said she believes the war in Gaza constitutes a genocide. Asked the same question during the forum, Hernandez said Israel has a right to defend itself while adding that the “destruction in Gaza has gone too far.”

But ahead of Tuesday’s runoff, AIPAC’s super PAC arm, United Democracy Project, injected nearly $2 million in advertising attacking Wahab and supporting Hernandez into the race, according to AdImpact data, with another $1.9 million coming from BOLD America, a group that also receives funding from AIPAC.

The ad campaigns targeting Wahab largely avoided Middle East policy, instead attacking her record on other issues like public safety. In response, another super PAC called American Priorities, which formed earlier this year to counter AIPAC spending, spent more than $200,000 on ads supporting Wahab.

Still, the influx of outside cash helped transform the state legislator’s significant lead in earlier showdowns into a much tighter race.

In June, Wahab led Hernandez by 26 points in the first round of the special election. Two weeks earlier, Wahab led by 21 points in the primary for a full two-year term; she and Hernandez will have a rematch in November to settle that race.

AIPAC spending has inflamed Democratic primaries this cycle, amid rising anti-Israel sentiment in the party electorate, to mixed results.

Wahab’s win comes two weeks after Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat and critic of Israel, won a contentious and closely watched primary against a moderate opponent he denounced for her ties to AIPAC. The group spent more than $30 million dollars opposing El-Sayed during the primary and has suggested it could continue to be involved in the general election.

The same night, however, AIPAC-backed Missouri Rep. Wesley Bell handily defeated a firebrand former congresswoman and democratic socialist whom the pro-Israel group helped oust in 2024.

Wahab, the first Muslim elected to California’s Senate, campaigned on making healthcare and childcare more affordable, preventing corporate price-gouging and protecting safety net programs.

She will fill a House seat that has been vacant since Swalwell, also a Democrat, resigned in April amidst allegations of sexual misconduct, including from a former staffer who said he raped her. While Swalwell denied the allegations, key Democrats quickly condemned him, and he soon ended his 13-year congressional career and exited the California governor’s race, where he was a leading candidate.

Wahab will serve in Swalwell’s seat, which represents the area east of San Francisco, until the new Congress is sworn in at the start of 2027. In a narrowly divided House, each additional Democratic seat is valuable to the party as it works to curb the Republican majority. The chamber currently has 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with several vacant seats.