2026-08-20T12:39:08.084Z / 路透社
2025年8月1日摄于美国加利福尼亚州恩西尼塔斯，当地一家商铺外张贴着“招聘中”标牌。此前美国7月就业增长降幅超预期。REUTERS/迈克·布雷克 购买授权，打开新标签页
8月20日（路透社）——美国上周提交失业救济申请的人数有所下滑，这表明尽管7月就业数据意外下滑，劳动力市场仍保持稳定，也让美联储得以继续将重点放在遏制通胀上。
美国劳工部周四表示，经季节调整后，截至8月15日的一周，州失业救济首次申请人数较前一周经向上修正的21.2万人减少6000人，至20.6万人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预计最新一周的申请人数为21万人。
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部分经济学家此前预计，受近期野火影响最严重的俄勒冈州和华盛顿州的申请人数会出现上升，但报告未显示出任何此类迹象。两个州的新申请人数先行数据上周均出现下滑。
目前来看，失业救济申请人数似乎稳定在今年18.9万至23万区间的下限附近，这表明即便招聘疲软，裁员率仍处于低位。最新申请人数显著低于过去三年同期水平，印证了这是一个“低招聘、低裁员”的就业市场。
尽管美国7月减少了2.3万个就业岗位，但降幅主要集中在地方政府教育领域，私营部门新增了3万个就业岗位。人口老龄化推动的退休潮以及唐纳德·特朗普总统的移民政策正在缩减劳动力规模，使得更低的就业增长水平就能维持失业率稳定。美国4.1%的失业率仍接近历史低位。
“用工需求依然疲软，但劳动力供给下滑幅度更大——这让劳动力市场大致保持平衡，”牛津经济研究院资深美国经济学家马修·马丁表示。
周四发布的这份报告涵盖了8月就业报告的调查周。尽管该周申请人数较7月同期高出1.7万人，而7月同期的申请人数达到1969年以来的最低水平，但经济学家认为最新数据没有什么值得担忧的地方。
“尽管对比数据向好，7月非农就业人数还是出现了下滑，”杰富瑞首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯表示，“可以说，通过申请人数预测非农就业数据已经有相当长一段时间不太准确了，本月恐怕也不会有改观。”
就业市场的稳定性，加上持续的温和通胀迹象，可能让美联储得以在9月维持利率不变。尽管通胀率已经连续五年高于美联储2%的目标，但这仍是目前市场的预期。
报告显示，作为就业市场强弱指标的、在提交首次申请一周后仍在领取失业救济的人数，在截至8月8日的一周增加了1.8万人，经季节调整后达到179.9万人。此次增长逆转了前一周同等幅度的下滑，使持续领取救济的人数维持在相对较低的趋势水平。和首次申请人数一样，该数据也远低于去年同期水平。
丹·伯恩斯报道；千住 Nomiyama 编辑
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US unemployment claims dipped last week, showing stability in job market
2026-08-20T12:39:08.084Z / Reuters
A “now hiring” sign is displayed on a local business after, U.S.employment growth slowed more than expected in July, in Encinitas, California, U.S. August 1, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Aug 20 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits slipped last week, suggesting that the labor market remains stable despite a surprise drop in employment in July and leaving the Federal Reserve in position to keep its focus on containing inflation.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 for the week ended August 15 from the prior week’s upwardly revised 212,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week.
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Some economists had expected an uptick in claims from states affected hardest by recent wildfires, such as Oregon and Washington, but the report showed no evidence of that. Advance measures of new claims in both states fell last week.
Jobless benefits claims appear for now to be anchored in the lower end of their 189,000-230,000 range for this year, indicating that layoffs remain low even if hiring is soft. The latest level is notably lower than it was at this time in each of the last three years, emblematic of a low-hire-low-fire job market.
While the U.S. shed 23,000 jobs in July, the loss was centered in local government education, and the private sector added 30,000 jobs. An aging population driving a wave of retirements and President Donald Trump’s immigration policies are shrinking the size of the workforce and allowing a lower level of job creation to keep the unemployment rate steady. The U.S. jobless rate of 4.1% remains near historically low levels.
“Demand for workers remains soft, but the supply of workers has slowed even more – leaving the labor market roughly in balance,” Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said.
Thursday’s report covers the survey week for the employment report for August. While it was 17,000 higher than in the same week for July, which was the lowest level of new claims since 1969, economists saw little to be concerned about from the latest data.
“Despite the favorable comparison, July payrolls fell,” Jefferies Chief U.S. Economist Thomas Simons said. “Suffice to say, using claims to forecast payrolls has been fairly unsuccessful for a while now, and that’s not likely to change this month.”
Labor market stability, together with signs of mild inflation, if sustained could allow the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September. That remains the current market expectation despite inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target for five years now.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.799 million during the week ended August 8, the claims report showed. The increase reversed a drop of the same amount the prior week and kept continued claims at their relatively low trend level. Like initial claims, they remain well below a year ago at this time.
Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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