2026-08-18T10:00:29.129Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/politics/republican-senate-candidates-unpopularity
上周发布的一项新民调印证了民主党高层的担忧：密歇根州联邦参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德可能会破坏民主党拿下参议院多数席位的计划。
福克斯新闻的民调显示，他在登记选民中的个人形象支持率比反对率低13个百分点——42%的受访者对他持好感，55%持反感；在一对一的对决中，他与共和党对手支持率不相上下，仅以微弱劣势落后。
不过，尽管埃尔赛义德可能给民主党竞选带来的拖累受到了广泛关注，但他在民主党内部实属特例。
事实上，在多场关键选战中，人气不足的是共和党候选人。
综合现有优质民调的平均数据来看，在所有关键参议院席位角逐中，密歇根州是唯一一个民主党候选人更不受欢迎的州，其余所有席位的选战中，不受欢迎的都是共和党候选人。
在缅因州和得克萨斯州，近期民调的平均数据显示，联邦参议员苏珊·柯林斯和州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿的支持率均比反对率低12个百分点——也就是说，反感这两位共和党人的选民多于支持他们的人。这与福克斯民调中埃尔赛义德的处境类似。
总体而言，在最有可能决定参议院多数席位归属的8场选战中，共和党候选人的平均形象净支持率仅在阿拉斯加州为正，而除埃尔赛义德之外的所有民主党候选人的形象净支持率均为正。
在其中7场选战中，民主党候选人的人气领先共和党对手8至24个百分点。
差距最大的是佐治亚州和艾奥瓦州，两地的民主党候选人——联邦参议员乔恩·奥索夫和州参议员乔希·图雷克——人气表现亮眼。两人的好感度平均比反感度至少高出20个百分点。（图雷克的情况是知名度较低，但似乎几乎没人反感他。）
他们的共和党对手——分别是众议员迈克·柯林斯和阿什利·辛森——的个人形象评级仅处于中等水平。
民主党在得克萨斯州也占据巨大优势：州议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科的净支持率为正5个百分点，而帕克斯顿的净支持率为负12个百分点，两者差距达17个百分点。
在缅因州，民主党前州参议院议长特洛伊·杰克逊的净支持率为正3个百分点，个人形象评级差距达15个百分点。考虑到柯林斯在倾向民主党的州参选，她负12的净形象评级无疑是个大问题。（通常而言，在对本党不利的州当选的政客，往往整体都很受欢迎。）
值得注意的是，缅因州福克斯民调中，约55%的登记选民“极度”或“非常”担忧柯林斯过于频繁地投票支持唐纳德·特朗普总统；而密歇根州福克斯民调中，同样有54%的选民“极度”或“非常”担忧埃尔赛义德的政治立场过于极端。
在北卡罗来纳州，民主党前州长罗伊·库珀的净支持率为正14个百分点，而前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利的净支持率为负1个百分点，差距达15个百分点。
在俄亥俄州，民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗的净支持率为正4个百分点，而任命的共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特的净支持率为负5个百分点，差距为9个百分点。
在阿拉斯加州，民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉的净支持率为正9个百分点，共和党参议员丹·沙利文的净支持率为正1个百分点，差距为8个百分点。
即便在密歇根州，不受欢迎的也不只是埃尔赛义德。共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯同样人气不佳，在福克斯民调中净支持率为负6个百分点，只是情况稍好于埃尔赛义德。
在这8个州的选战中，民主党候选人的平均形象净支持率为正8个百分点，而共和党候选人的平均形象净支持率为负5个百分点，这一数据已经将密歇根州的情况纳入统计。
一个关键问题是，这在多大程度上反映了候选人自身的问题，又在多大程度上反映了全国性的政治环境。选民显然对特朗普感到不满，这可能会波及那些被视为特朗普盟友的共和党人——比如苏珊·柯林斯。
但这只能解释部分原因。民主党目前的声望也称不上亮眼——事实上，其受欢迎程度与共和党不相上下——但在一些关键选战中，民主党候选人似乎更受选民青睐。这表明民主党在候选人招募方面做得不错，在图雷克和塔拉里科的案例中，也成功引导候选人通过了竞争激烈的初选。
民主党要拿下参议院多数席位，或许需要埃尔赛义德在密歇根州胜出；今年的竞选版图对民主党来说就是如此艰难。这也是为何提名埃尔赛义德引发了如此多的担忧。
但这显然并非参议院席位争夺战的全貌。
Abdul El-Sayed is a problem for Democrats. Republicans appear to have more problems
2026-08-18T10:00:29.129Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/18/politics/republican-senate-candidates-unpopularity
A new poll last week confirmed the Democratic establishment’s fears that Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed could hurt its hopes of winning the chamber’s majority.
The Fox News poll showed his personal image 13 points underwater among registered voters — 42% favorable to 55% unfavorable as he ran about even with his GOP opponent in a head-to-head matchup, trailing narrowly.
But while El-Sayed’s potential drag on the Democratic ticket has gotten lots of attention, he is very much the exception for the party.
In fact, it’s Republican candidates who have the popularity problem in a number of key races.
And of all the crucial Senate races, Michigan is the only one in which Democrats have the more unpopular candidate, according to averages of the quality polls available. In all the others, it’s the GOP.
In both Maine and Texas, the averages of recent polls show both Sen. Susan Collins and state Attorney General Ken Paxton 12 points underwater — i.e., with more people viewing those Republicans unfavorably than favorably. That’s similar to where El-Sayed was in the Fox poll.
All told, across the eight races that are most likely to determine the Senate majority, the GOP standard-bearer has a net-positive average image rating in just one race — Alaska — while every Democratic candidate except El-Sayed is in positive territory.
And in seven of those eight races, the Democratic nominee polls more popularly by between 8 and 24 points.
The biggest gaps come in Georgia and Iowa, where both the Democratic nominees — Sen. Jon Ossoff and state Sen. Josh Turek — poll well. Each of their favorable ratings is at least 20 points better than their unfavorable ratings, on average. (In Turek’s case, he’s less well-known, but very few people seem to dislike him.)
Their GOP opponents — Reps. Mike Collins and Ashley Hinson, respectively — have middling personal image ratings.
Democrats also have a big edge in Texas, where state Rep. James Talarico is 5 points above water, compared with Paxton’s 12 points — a gap of 17 points.
In Maine, Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson is plus-3, for a 15-point gap in personal image ratings. And Collins’ minus-12 net image rating would seem a significant problem, given she’s a Republican running in a blue-leaning state. (Usually, the politicians who win in states that are unfriendly for their side tend to be broadly popular.)
Notably, about as many registered voters in Maine were “extremely” or “very” concerned that Collins voted with President Donald Trump too often (55%) in a Fox poll in that state as were “extremely” or “very” concerned that El-Sayed’s issue positions are too extreme (54%) in the Michigan Fox poll.
In North Carolina, Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is 14 points positive to former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley’s minus-1, which is a 15-point gap.
In Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is above water by 4 points, while appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted is 5 points underwater — a 9-point gap.
In Alaska, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is plus-9 to GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan’s plus-1 image rating — an 8-point gap.
And even in Michigan, El-Sayed isn’t the only one who’s unpopular. Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers is too — just less so, at minus-6 in the Fox poll.
Across the eight states, the Democratic nominee’s image is 8 points positive on average, while the Republican’s is 5 points negative. And that includes Michigan.
A big question is how much that’s a reflection of the candidates themselves versus the national environment. Voters are clearly frustrated with Trump, and that could filter down to the Republicans (like Susan Collins) who are viewed as his enablers.
But that explains only so much. The Democratic Party is not exactly popular right now — indeed, it’s about as unpopular as the GOP — and yet its nominees in some key races appear likable to voters. That suggests some solid recruiting and, in the cases of Turek and Talarico, shepherding of their candidates through competitive primaries.
It’s possible that Democrats will need El-Sayed to win to have a shot at the Senate majority; that’s how tough this year’s map is for the party. And that’s a big reason there has been such consternation about nominating him.
But it’s certainly not the full picture of the battle for the Senate.
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