2026-08-14T16:10:21-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
伊朗战事凸显了数千英里外一条关键航运路线中断，会切实影响美国消费者国内购买汽油等生活必需品的成本。
这场冲突已接近六个月，由于商业船只遭袭引发对航道安全的担忧，霍尔木兹海峡——全球能源运输的关键动脉——的航运流量受到抑制。这一放缓导致全球油价飙升，汽油价格突破每加仑4美元，并加剧了全面通胀。
美国和伊朗曾多次尝试斡旋达成和平协议，但由于双方继续争夺霍尔木兹海峡的控制权，谈判最终破裂。这凸显了在地缘政治冲突中，关键航道如何能成为施压工具。
牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）的一份新报告列出了另外26个贸易量巨大的主要咽喉要道，如果航运陷入停滞，这些要道也可能威胁全球经济。
全球贸易集中在哪里？
正如牛津的报告所指出的，亚洲是全球关键咽喉要道最密集的地区。该区域拥有多条重要航道，包括位于印尼苏门答腊岛和马来西亚之间的马六甲海峡，以及台湾海峡——据牛津数据，全球四分之一的贸易货物经该海峡通行。
地中海也是全球贸易活动的热点区域。据牛津的报告，约五分之一的全球贸易经由直布罗陀海峡（连接地中海与大西洋）和苏伊士运河（埃及东北部的人工航道）通行。
尽管巴拿马运河对全球贸易的重要性相对较低，但它仍是美洲地区的重要咽喉要道。无党派智库外交关系委员会（Council on Foreign Relations）的数据显示，美国每年约40%的集装箱货运量会经过这条人工航道。
全球贸易面临的主要威胁是什么？
地缘政治动荡是全球贸易面临的最大威胁之一。牛津经济研究院经济研究与全球贸易主管哈里·墨菲·克鲁斯（Harry Murphy Cruise）对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示，这包括一些国家试图利用关键咽喉要道为自身谋取政治或地缘政治利益。
这一幕正上演在霍尔木兹海峡，美国和伊朗都在试图控制该区域的航运交通。
另一个更隐蔽的威胁是气候变化，它正导致更频繁、破坏力更强的自然灾害。巴拿马运河就是一个典型例子：干旱和厄尔尼诺现象（一种导致太平洋表层温度“高于平均水平”的天气模式）共同作用，降低了运河水位，限制了货船的载货量。
备选航线？
正如牛津的报告所指出的，每个咽喉要道相关的风险，取决于灾难发生时是否能够重新规划航运路线。
据墨菲·克鲁斯介绍，霍尔木兹海峡的通航量原本占全球石油供应量的五分之一，其受中断的风险尤其高，因为没有其他途径可以 redirect 能源供应。
“没有其他替代航道，因为霍尔木兹海峡实际上就是石油外运的必经之路，”他说，“反观全球其他一些咽喉要道，它们与关键产油区的直接绑定程度要稍低一些。”
当然，即便拥有备选航线的咽喉要道也可能遇到问题。墨菲·克鲁斯表示，为船只重新规划航线会延长航运周期，推高运营成本。
“船只在海上的时间越长，船员薪资、燃油价格及其他成本就越高，”他说。
如果船只在海上的时间超出预期，还会导致可用商业货船数量减少，进一步推高成本压力。
“供需失衡会加剧，进而推高货运成本，”墨菲·克鲁斯补充道。
Most global trade flows through these 27 chokepoints. The economic risks are rising, report says
2026-08-14T16:10:21-0400 / CBS News
The Iran war has underscored how disruptions to a key shipping route thousands of miles away can have a material impact on what American consumers pay at home for essentials like gasoline.
The conflict, now nearing its six-month mark, has throttled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy shipments, as strikes on commercial vessels raise concerns about the passageway’s safety. The slowdown has caused global oil prices to surge, pushing gasoline past $4 a gallon and fueling broader inflation.
The U.S. and Iran have made multiple attempts to broker a peace deal, but talks have unraveled as the two sides continue to vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz, an indication of how key waterways can become instruments of leverage during geopolitical conflicts.
A new report from Oxford Economics outlines 26 other major chokepoints with high trade volumes that could also threaten the economy if shipping were to grind to a halt.
Where is global trade concentrated?
As Oxford’s report points out, Asia has the densest concentration of key global chokepoints. The region is home to several vital waterways, including the Strait of Malacca, situated between the Indonesian island of Sumatra and Malaysia, and the Taiwan Strait, through which one-fourth of global trade passes, according to Oxford.
The Mediterranean Sea is also a hot spot for global trade activity. Around one-fifth of global trade transits the Strait of Gibraltar, which connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Atlantic Ocean, and the Suez Canal, an artificial waterway in northeastern Egypt, according to Oxford’s report.
While the Panama Canal is less significant to global trade, it remains an important chokepoint for the Americas. Some 40% of all U.S. container traffic traverses the artificial waterway annually, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank.
What are the major threats to global trade?
Geopolitical disruptions pose one of the greatest threats to global trade. That includes countries looking to use critical chokepoints for their own political or geopolitical gain, Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research and global trade at Oxford, told CBS News.
That’s playing out in the Strait of Hormuz, as the U.S. and Iran both try to exert control over shipping traffic.
Another, more insidious threat is climate change, which is driving more frequent and more harmful natural disasters. Just one example is the Panama Canal, where a combination of drought conditions and El Niño, a weather pattern that causes “warmer-than-average” surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is lowering water levels and limiting the amount of cargo ships can carry.
Backup routes?
As Oxford’s report points out, the risks associated with each chokepoint depend on whether it can reroute traffic if and when disaster strikes.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the global oil supply normally flows, is particularly vulnerable to disruptions because there isn’t another option to redirect energy supplies, according to Murphy Cruise.
“There’s no alternative path that it can take because the Strait is effectively where the oil is coming from,” he said. “If we look at some of the other chokepoints around the world, they’re slightly less tied directly to key production.”
To be sure, even chokepoints that have backup routes can still run into issues. Rerouting vessels prolongs the shipping process, which can drive up operational costs, Murphy Cruise said.
“The longer they’re out at sea, there’s higher wages, there’s higher oil prices and [other] costs,” he said.
When vessels are out at sea longer than expected, it can also limit the number of available commercial ships, creating additional cost pressures.
“That mismatch between supply and demand gets worse, and that pushes up freight costs,” Murphy Cruise added.
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