2026年8月7日 美国东部时间下午6:40 / 福克斯新闻网
评估报告称，此次打击可能从网络攻击到针对波罗的海国家或波兰的小规模地面入侵不等
作者：布里·斯廷森 福克斯新闻网
前中央情报局站站长丹·霍夫曼讨论了俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事困境，以及对其在欧洲扩大攻击的担忧。他强调了普京的威胁，以及北约团结和情报共享的重要性。
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据报道，美国最新情报显示，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京可能在未来几年内袭击北约成员国，企图瓦解这个二战后成立的组织，并测试北约第五条集体防御条款。
据《华尔街日报》报道，美国情报机构此前曾评估认为，普京在参与乌克兰战争期间不会对北约国家发动攻击，但如今随着乌克兰取得进展，俄罗斯总统正寻求一场胜利，而美国和欧洲越来越多地发现他正在试探北约。
这包括今年5月一架无人机袭击罗马尼亚一栋公寓楼，以及上月末巡航导弹落入北约成员国波兰境内。
俄罗斯准备针对北约东翼发动混合攻击，情报机构警告
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京于2026年8月7日周五在莫斯科主持安全委员会会议。（亚历山大·卡扎科夫/共同社 斯普特尼克 克里姆林宫 美联社供图）
北约第五条规定，对一个成员国的攻击即视为对所有成员国的攻击。
评估报告称，这很可能是一场有限攻击，范围可从网络攻击到小规模地面入侵，且可能针对波罗的海国家或波兰。
评估报告指出，攻击可能在今年秋季至2029年之间的任何时间发生。
美国企业研究所高级研究员希瑟·康利告诉《华尔街日报》：“问题是美国届时将如何应对。（俄罗斯）一直以来的目标都是挑战北约的可信度，将美国与其盟友割裂开来。”
北约迫切希望获得的两种最重要的美国武器系统
该评估报告出炉之际，有说法称美国的弹药储备因向乌克兰提供武器支持以及伊朗战争而耗尽。
不过，五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔称这些说法不实。
他告诉《华尔街日报》：“我们拥有按照总统选择的时间和地点发动打击所需的一切资源。在多个作战司令部的行动中，我们已经成功完成任务，同时保持着充足、随时可用的武库，以保卫我们的人民和利益。任何将媒体噪音误认为美国软弱的对手，都会痛苦地认清现实。”
地面入侵被认为是最不可能发生的情况，因为这会触发北约第五条，但目前尚不清楚针对网络攻击等行为会作出何种回应。
报告警告：俄罗斯利用影子舰队探测北约无人机防御
波兰军队在波兰东部塔尔纳瓦-科洛尼亚一处可能与乌克兰夜间袭击有关的弹着点勘查巨大弹坑，2026年7月30日。（波兰国家电视台/法新社电视/法新社 盖蒂图片社供图）
康利告诉《华尔街日报》：“这一直是北约面临的挑战：如何应对低于第五条触发门槛的攻击。事实上，到目前为止，北约盟友一直倾向于不升级局势，这一点千真万确。”
福克斯新闻数字频道已联系北约请其置评。
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北约发言人马丁·奥唐奈上校告诉《华尔街日报》：“我们始终在思考并为各种可能的场景做准备。北约正在密切监视，我们随时准备在必要时进行威慑和防御，我们也将继续展示这一点。”
布里·斯廷森是驻洛杉矶的福克斯新闻数字频道娱乐与突发新闻撰稿人。
US intel warns Russia could launch limited attack on NATO ally in effort to fragment organization: report
August 7, 2026 6:40pm EDT / Fox News
The assessment says the strike could range from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion targeting the Baltics or Poland
By Brie Stimson Fox News
Former CIA Station Chief Dan Hoffman discusses Russia’s military struggles in Ukraine and concerns about expanding attacks in Europe. He highlighted Putin’s threats and the importance of NATO unity and intelligence sharing.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack a NATO member country in the next few years in an attempt to fragment the post-World War II organization and test Article 5, new U.S. intelligence has found, according to a report.
While U.S. intelligence had previously assessed that Putin wouldn’t launch an assault on a NATO country while still involved in the war in Ukraine, the Russian president is now looking for a victory as Ukraine makes gains, and the U.S. and Europe have seen increasing signs he is testing the organization, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
That includes a drone that hit a Romanian apartment building in May and cruise missiles that landed in Poland late last month, a NATO country.
RUSSIA PREPARING HYBRID ATTACKS ON NATO’S EASTERN FLANK, INTELLIGENCE WARNS
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a Security Council meeting in Moscow Friday, Aug. 7, 2026.(Alexander Kazakov/Pool Sputnik Kremlin via AP)
Article 5 of NATO states that an attack on one country is an attack on all countries.
The assessment said it would likely be a limited attack that could range anywhere from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion and would likely be focused on the Baltics or Poland.
The attack could happen any time between this fall and 2029, the assessment said.
“The question mark is how the United States would respond in that case,” Heather Conley, senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute, told the Journal. “It has always been a goal [of Russia’s] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies.”
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The assessment also comes amid claims the United States’ munitions stockpile has been depleted by arms sent to support Ukraine and due to the war in Iran.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell, however, called those claims false.
Police and forensic investigators examine the location of impact after a Russian drone struck an apartment building in Galati, Romania, May 29, 2026.(AFP via Getty Images)
“We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the president’s choosing,” Parnell told the Journal. “Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests. Any adversary who confuses media noise with American weakness will discover the truth the hard way.”
A land incursion was deemed the least likely because it would trigger Article 5, but it’s unclear what the response would be to something like a cyberattack.
REPORT WARNS RUSSIA USING SHADOW FLEET TO PROBE NATO DRONE DEFENSES
The Polish army secures a large crater, the probable impact site of a projectile linked to overnight strikes in Ukraine, in Tarnawa-Kolonia, eastern Poland, July 30, 2026.(TVN Poland/AFPTV/AFP via Getty Images)
“This has always been NATO’s challenge to respond to a sub-Article 5 attack, and it’s been very true that to this point, NATO allies have preferred not to escalate,” Conley told the Journal.
Fox News Digital has reached out to NATO for comment.
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Col. Martin O’Donnell, a NATO spokesman, told the Journal, “We are always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios. NATO is watching, and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate.”
Brie Stimson is a Los Angeles-based entertainment and breaking news writer for Fox News Digital.
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