库珀凭借更高好感度占优，而沃特利仍鲜为人知
2026年7月29日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：达娜·布兰特顿
中期选举倒计时100天民调显示差距微乎其微
福克斯新闻的实力排名显示，参议院和众议院的竞争都十分激烈，距离中期选举仅剩100天。目前有4个参议院席位和16个众议院席位属于摇摆席位，预示着中期选举的竞争将异常激烈。
NEW 您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章了！
blob:https://www.foxnews.com/6ff56298-64e9-4be4-bcef-620016e7e0e9
收听本文
6分钟
在北卡罗来纳州，认为自己对中期选举“极度感兴趣”的民主党人多于共和党人（51%对42%），表示自己“极度有动力投票”的民主党人也多于共和党人（58%对50%）。这种热情优势为参议院竞选带来了领先优势。
根据福克斯新闻对北卡罗来纳州选民的民调，民主党人罗伊·库珀以53%对44%的支持率，领先共和党人迈克尔·沃特利，争夺该州开放的参议院席位。
在表示对选举“极度感兴趣”的选民中，库珀的领先优势扩大到15个百分点（57%对42%）；在表示“极度有动力投票”的选民中，领先13个百分点（55%对42%）。在表示“一定会投票”的选民中，这场竞选的支持率没有变化，仍为53%对44%。
福克斯新闻民调：选民拒绝数据中心建设
使用Flourish制作·创建图表
沃特利曾担任共和党全国委员会主席，而库珀于2017年至2025年担任北卡罗来纳州州长。两人正竞争即将退休的共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯留下的席位。
库珀获得了温和派选民、30岁以下选民、无党派人士、大学学历选民以及女性的大力支持。他还获得了约五分之一的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人和保守派选民的支持。
沃特利的最强支持群体是极保守派选民、白人福音派基督徒、未获得大学学历的白人选民以及农村选民。
当被问及支持候选人的原因时，选民之间也存在热情差距。约52%的沃特利支持者表示，他们投票是为了支持他本人，而46%的人表示主要是为了反对库珀。相比之下，84%的库珀支持者表示，他们投票是为了支持库珀本人，而非反对沃特利（这一比例仅为13%）。
福克斯新闻民调：选民同时广泛支持选民身份证法和邮寄选票
使用Flourish制作·创建图表
大多数选民已经坚定了自己的选择：81%的库珀支持者表示“一定会”投票给他，沃特利的支持者中这一比例为77%。总体而言，五分之一的选民表示可能会改变自己的投票选择。
特朗普总统给沃特利的竞选增添了变数。40%的北卡罗来纳州选民对特朗普总统持好感态度，58%的人持负面态度，净支持率为负18个百分点。而两年前，他的支持率仅为负6个百分点（47%对53%）。
48%的选民对沃特利与特朗普的关联感到担忧，这种担忧跨党派存在：包括超过一半的温和派选民、超过四成的无党派人士，以及约三成的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人。与此同时，对库珀与民主党建制派关联的担忧则更具党派色彩。总体而言，42%的人对此感到担忧，其中七成共和党人持此看法，但仅有三成的无党派人士和温和派选民表示担忧。
使用Flourish制作·创建图表
“近期数据显示，北卡罗来纳州全州范围内的共和党优势约为3个百分点，”负责此次民调的共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同开展了这项调查。“库珀的领先优势基于几乎全党的民主党支持率，以及在无党派选民中的压倒性优势。要想获胜，沃特利必须止住在非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人中的支持率下滑，并改善在心怀不满、党派色彩较淡的卡罗来纳州选民中的形象。”
候选人的个人受欢迎程度也拉开了两人的差距。库珀54%的好感度显著高于沃特利的40%。此外，库珀比民主党本身的好感度高出12个百分点，而沃特利的支持率则比共和党低4个百分点。
总体而言，沃特利的知名度更低，14%的选民表示无法评价他，或者从未听说过他，其中包括约十分之一的共和党人。
使用Flourish制作·创建图表
北卡罗来纳州选民对共和党和民主党的看法同样负面：共和党好感度为44%，负面率54%；民主党好感度42%，负面率56%。
党派对立情绪强烈：更多民主党人（94%）对共和党持负面看法，而非对本党持正面看法（83%）。反之亦然：更多共和党人（92%）对民主党持负面看法，而非对本党持正面看法（85%）。
在同时对两党持负面看法的小众群体中，库珀的支持率是沃特利的两倍（64%对32%）。
通货膨胀是北卡罗来纳州选民最关心的议题，36%的人表示这将是他们参议院投票时最重要的考量因素。其次是国内政治分裂，占14%，紧随其后的是医疗保健和移民问题，各占13%。
使用Flourish制作·创建图表
点击此处查看交叉制表和原始数据
一半的选民认为自己的财务状况稳定，12%的人表示生活水平在提高，38%的人表示经济状况正在恶化，这一比例比两年前低了6个百分点。
北卡罗来纳州近期的选举历史呈现出不同的走向。库珀在2020年的州长连任选举中以近5个百分点的优势获胜。事实上，民主党人在该州过去10次州长选举中赢了8次。上一位共和党州长候选人帕特·麦克罗里于2012年以约11个百分点的优势获胜。
与此同时，共和党人在该州过去12次总统选举中赢了11次。上一位在该州获胜的民主党总统是前总统奥巴马，他在2008年以0.3%的微弱优势胜出。
在2024年总统选举中，特朗普以3个百分点的优势赢得北卡罗来纳州。
本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年7月23日至27日进行，由Beacon Research（民主党）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党）联合指导完成，共采访了1005名从全州选民档案中随机抽取的北卡罗来纳州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（115人）、手机（654人）接受现场访谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（236人）。基于全样本的结果抽样误差为±3个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。用于确定加权目标的数据来源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。通常会根据年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口结构能够代表登记选民群体。子群体结果仅在样本量至少为100时才会展示。
福克斯新闻的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报告撰稿。
作为民调部门负责人，达娜·布兰特顿负责管理福克斯新闻民调项目，并监督福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查。
Fox News Poll: Democratic enthusiasm shapes North Carolina Senate race
Cooper benefits from stronger favorable ratings, while Whatley remains less well known
July 29, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
By Dana Blanton
Midterm polls show razor-thin margins 100 days out
Fox News’ power rankings reveal tight races in both the Senate and House, with 100 days remaining until the midterm elections. Four Senate seats and 16 House seats are toss-ups, indicating a highly competitive midterm election landscape.
NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!
blob:https://www.foxnews.com/6ff56298-64e9-4be4-bcef-620016e7e0e9
Listen to this article
6 min
In North Carolina, more Democrats than Republicans say they are extremely interested in the midterm elections (51% vs. 42%), and more Democrats also say they are extremely motivated to vote (58% vs. 50%). This enthusiasm advantage creates an edge in the Senate matchup.
Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 53% to 44% in the race to fill the state’s open Senate seat, according to a Fox News poll of North Carolina voters.
Cooper’s gap widens to 15 points among those saying they’re extremely interested in the election (57% vs. 42%) and 13 points among those extremely motivated to vote (55% vs. 42%). The race is unchanged among those saying they’re “certain” to vote (53% to 44%).
FOX NEWS POLL: COOL YOUR SERVERS! VOTERS REJECT DATA CENTERS
Made with Flourish•Create a chart
Whatley is the former chair of the Republican National Committee, while Cooper served as North Carolina’s governor from 2017-2025. The candidates are vying to fill the seat held by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
Cooper receives high support from moderates, voters under age 30, independents, voters with a college degree, and women. He also captures support from about one in five non-MAGA Republicans and conservatives.
Whatley performs best among very conservative voters, White evangelical Christians, White voters without a college degree, and rural voters.
There’s also an enthusiasm gap when voters are asked why they back their candidate. Some 52% of Whatley’s supporters say they’re voting for him, while 46% say it’s mainly against Cooper. By contrast, 84% of Cooper supporters say they’re voting for him rather than against Whatley (13%).
FOX NEWS POLL: SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FOR BOTH VOTER ID LAWS AND MAIL-IN BALLOTS
Made with Flourish•Create a chart
Most voters are committed to their choice: 81% of Cooper’s backers say they’re certain to vote for him and it’s 77% among Whatley supporters. Overall, one in five voters say they could switch their pick.
President Trump complicates the contest for Whatley. Forty percent of North Carolina voters view the president favorably and 58% unfavorable. That’s net negative by 18 points, while his ratings were underwater by just 6 points two years ago (47-53%).
And Whatley’s ties to Trump concern 48% of voters, with worry extending across the spectrum, including more than half of moderates, more than 4 in 10 independents, and about 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans. Meanwhile, concern about Cooper’s ties to the Democratic establishment is more partisan. Overall, 42% are concerned, including 7 in 10 Republicans, but just 3 in 10 independents and moderates.
Made with Flourish•Create a chart
“Recent data put the average Republican advantage in North Carolina statewide races at about 3 points,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Cooper’s edge rests on almost unanimous Democratic support and commanding numbers among independents. To win, Whatley must stop the bleeding with non-MAGA Republicans and improve his standing with disaffected, less partisan Carolinians.”
Personal popularity also sets the candidates apart. Cooper’s 54% favorable rating is significantly higher than Whatley’s at 40%. In addition, Cooper is more popular than the Democratic Party by a 12-point margin, while Whatley trails the GOP by 4.
Whatley is less well known overall, as 14% of voters say they’re unable to rate him or have never heard of him, including about 1 in 10 Republicans.
Made with Flourish•Create a chart
Tar Heel voters share equally negative views of the Republican Party (44% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable) and the Democratic Party (42% vs. 56%).
Negative partisanship is strong, as more Democrats view the GOP negatively (94%) than view their own party positively (83%). The reverse is also true: more Republicans (92%) hold an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party than view the GOP positively (85%).
Among the small subgroup viewing both parties negatively, Cooper draws twice as much support as Whatley (64% to 32%).
Inflation is the top issue for North Carolina voters, with 36% saying it will be most important to their vote for Senate. Next, it’s political divisions within the country at 14%, followed closely by healthcare and immigration at 13% each.
Made with Flourish•Create a chart
CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE
Half describe their financial situation as stable, 12% say they’re getting ahead, and 38% say they’re falling behind, which is 6 points lower than it was two years ago.
North Carolina’s recent voting history points in different directions. Cooper won reelection in 2020 by almost 5 percentage points. In fact, Democrats have won 8 of the state’s last 10 gubernatorial elections. The last Republican to win was Pat McCrory, by about 11 points in 2012.
At the same time, Republicans have won the state in 11 of the last 12 presidential elections. The last Democrat to carry the state was former President Obama, who won by 0.3% in 2008.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won North Carolina by 3 percentage points.
Conducted July 23-27, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,005 North Carolina registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (115) and cellphones (654) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (236). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources used to develop weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
发表回复