发布时间：2026年7月28日美国东部时间凌晨4:00 / CNN
分析：亚伦·布莱克
当地时间7月27日周一，唐纳德·特朗普总统在密歇根州米尔福德的通用汽车米尔福德试验场发表演讲后挥手致意。
布兰登·斯米亚洛夫斯基/法新社/盖蒂图片社
唐纳德·特朗普总统第二任期内的诸多政策已被证明不受欢迎。
但如果要论对即将到来的中期选举影响最深远、对试图保住国会多数席位的共和党人来说最棘手的问题，两张图表就能清晰说明一切。
这两张图表都显示特朗普的支持率在持续稳步下滑，如今更是创下了任期内的新低。
最新数据来自哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）与舆观（YouGov）的最新民调，两家机构在过去18个月里多次就特朗普对经济的处理方式开展民调。
此次民调发布之际，特朗普正于周一前往关键摇摆州密歇根州，推广他的经济议程。
特朗普在通胀问题上的失责
特朗普第二任期初期，就有大量美国人认为政府没有足够重视降低物价。
当时这一比例徘徊在65%左右，彼时总统似乎更专注于关税政策，而非民众日常生计和通胀问题。
但此后，认为政府未足够重视降低物价的美国人比例持续攀升。而在2月底伊朗冲突爆发后首次开展的该问题民调中，这一比例已升至78%。
需要强调的是，近八成美国人认为特朗普政府忽视了这一或许是选民最关心的核心议题。通常情况下，很难有七成美国人能在政治议题上达成共识，而此次支持率远超七成。
认为政府未足够重视该问题的人群中，包括85%的无党派人士，甚至还有过半数共和党人（58%）。
这三项数据均为特朗普第二任期以来的新高。
本次民调问题并未直接指向特朗普本人，仅询问了政府的表现，因此受访者或许将矛头指向了未具名的官僚，而非总统本人。
但这仍是特朗普任期的真实写照。最令人震惊的是这一趋势的持续性：特朗普未能采取任何措施暂时扭转颓势，负面走势毫无缓和迹象。
“经济状况更糟”民调数据
罗纳德·里根在1980年竞选时任总统吉米·卡特时曾 famously 问道：“你比四年前过得更好吗？”
就特朗普过去18个月的经济施政而言，这个问题的答案对特朗普和共和党来说并不乐观。
CBS民调曾多次询问美国人是否认为特朗普的政策让他们“经济状况变好”或“变糟”。正如第一张图表所示，情况正持续恶化。
2025年3月，也就是特朗普宣布全球关税政策之前，有42%的美国人认为特朗普让他们的经济状况变差，如今这一比例已稳步攀升至58%。
同期，认为特朗普的政策让自己经济状况变好的美国人比例从23%降至13%。
这意味着特朗普在该问题上的支持率差距从最初的落后19个百分点扩大到了如今的落后45个百分点。
更让特朗普难堪的是，经济议题本可以说是他当选总统的主要原因之一。尽管美国人对他的个人性格存有保留意见，但普遍认为他在处理经济问题上更胜一筹。
事实上，2024年大选前夕的CBS民调显示，44%的登记选民认为特朗普的政策会让自己的生活变好，这一比例远高于民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯的30%。
但如今，仅有13%的美国人认为特朗普做到了这一点。
需要明确的是，民众不仅认为自己的经济状况变差，还将此归咎于特朗普的政策。
特朗普通过关税政策和伊朗冲突将经济治理权完全揽于自身，这正是当时的风险所在。随着2026年中期选举日益临近，没有任何迹象表明这些趋势会对共和党有利。
The GOP’s 2026 Trump problem, in 2 charts
PUBLISHED Jul 28, 2026, 4:00 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
President Donald Trump gestures after speaking at General Motors’ Milford Proving Ground in Milford, Michigan, on Monday, July 27.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
There has been plenty in President Donald Trump’s second term that’s proven politically unpopular.
But when it comes to what’s most significant for the upcoming midterm elections — and most problematic for Republicans trying to defend their congressional majorities — two charts tell the tale as well as anything.
Both feature a remarkably steady decline for Trump’s fortunes. And both now show him worse off than ever before.
The latest numbers come from new polling from CBS News and YouGov, which have frequently polled views of Trump’s handling of the economy over the last 18 months.
They also come as Trump headed to Michigan, a key battleground state, on Monday to promote his economic agenda.
Trump’s neglect on inflation
Early in Trump’s second term, the percentage of Americans who said the administration wasn’t focused enough on lowering prices was already high.
Back then, it hovered in the mid-60s, when the president seemed more focused on tariffs than kitchen table issues and inflation.
But the percentage of Americans who think the administration is not focused enough on lowering prices has risen steadily since then. And now, in the first poll asking the question since the start of the Iran war in late February, it’s up to _78%.
Just to underscore, that’s nearly 8 in 10 Americans who say the Trump administration has neglected what might well be the single most important issue to voters. It often seems difficult to get 7 in 10 Americans to agree on much of anything politically, but this is an even larger majority than that.
The percentage who say the administration hasn’t focused enough on this issue also includes 85% of independents and even a clear majority of Republicans (58%).
All three findings are new highs for Trump’s second term.
The poll question didn’t focus on Trump himself — it just asked about the administration — so maybe respondents had unnamed bureaucrats in mind rather than the president himself.
But this is a reflection of Trump’s presidency. And what’s most stunning is how steady it’s been. Trump hasn’t been able to do anything to temporarily juice the numbers in his favor. It’s a negative trajectory, with no end in sight.
The ‘financially worse off’ number
Ronald Reagan famously asked during his 1980 campaign against then-President Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
When it comes to Trump’s stewardship of the economy over the past 18 months, the answer to that question is not an encouraging one for Trump and the GOP.
The CBS poll has regularly asked whether Americans felt Trump’s policies were making them “financially better off” or “worse off.” And as with the first chart above, things have gone from bad to worse.
While 42% of Americans said Trump was making them financially worse off back in March 2025 — before Trump’s global tariffs were announced — that number has steadily climbed to 58% today.
Over the same span, the percentage saying Trump’s policies have made them better off has dropped from 23% to 13%.
So Trump has gone from 19 points underwater to 45 points underwater on that question.
What should sting more for Trump is that this was arguably one of the main reasons he was elected. Even as Americans had reservations about his personal character, they generally saw him as preferable on dealing with the economy.
In fact, CBS polling on the eve of the 2024 election showed 44% of registered voters expected Trump’s policies to make them better off. That was significantly more than the 30% who said the same of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
But today, just 13% of Americans say Trump has accomplished that.
And to be clear, this isn’t just Americans saying they’ve become worse off; they’re saying that and blaming Trump’s policies for it.
That was the danger of Trump effectively taking full ownership of the economy via his tariffs and the Iran war. And as the 2026 midterms get closer, there is no sign that either of these trends will get any better for the GOP.
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