2026年7月16日 上午11:16 ET / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
亚伦·布莱克 分析
随着唐纳德·特朗普总统试图向持怀疑态度的公众推销对伊朗战争，他反复重申一个核心论点：巴拉克·奥巴马的伊朗核协议是一场灾难，而他将达成一份好得多的协议。
事实上，据CNN审查《滚石报》事实数据库的 transcripts 显示，特朗普自战争爆发以来已经提及奥巴马的核协议超过36次。
一项新的《华盛顿邮报-益普索》民调在这方面给特朗普带来了非常糟糕的消息。
调查发现，仅有23%的美国人认为特朗普能够推出一份比奥巴马2015年达成的协议更好的伊朗协议。另有37%的受访者——差距达14个百分点——认为特朗普达成的协议会更糟糕。
另有12%的人预计两份协议“大致相当”，其余受访者则未发表看法。
即使在共和党人中，也仅有略超半数（54%）的人认为特朗普能达成更好的协议。
这一比例绝大多数来自他最忠实的支持者：70%的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党人表示特朗普会达成更好的协议。非MAGA共和党人则意见大致持平：27%的人认为特朗普能达成更好的协议，23%的人认为奥巴马的协议更优。
仅有13%的独立选民认为总统能达成更好的协议。
这一调查结果在很多方面印证了特朗普未能为这场日益成为政治负担的战争构建合理说辞。
这些人中有多少人真正了解2015年签署的奥巴马核协议，也就是《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）的内容？这是一个合理的问题。特朗普在九年前就撕毁了这份协议，而这是一份非常复杂的协定。
但这其实并不重要。
一方面，《联合全面行动计划》在当时就相当不受欢迎。尽管一些早期民调显示民众对此持开放态度，但皮尤研究中心2015年9月的一项民调显示，美国人以49%比21%的比例反对该协议。到2016年初，盖洛普的一项民调显示，美国人反对该协议的比例达到57%比30%。
特朗普当前推行的政策连这点支持率都达不到，这足以说明问题。
其次，特朗普在过去四个半月里一直在全方位抨击这份协议。他一贯将其描述为美国向伊朗的彻底妥协，让伊朗走上拥有核武器的道路。
“你知道伊朗人做了什么吗？”特朗普一个月前与埃及总统会晤时说道，“他们嘲笑奥巴马，说他是个愚蠢的狗娘养的。”
在周一福克斯新闻的一档节目中，特朗普称该协议是“美国签署过的最糟糕的协议”，甚至毫无根据地暗示奥巴马签署该协议的动机另有更加险恶的企图。
另一个关键点：尽管特朗普客观上为达成协议投入了多得多的精力，但几乎没人认为他能达成更好的协议。特朗普发动了战争，造成了十余名美军士兵阵亡，迅速花费了数百亿美元，扰乱了全球经济。而且由于伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡造成了战前不存在的严重问题，这场战争至今仍看不到尽头。
然而美国民众似乎更倾向于奥巴马仅通过外交努力达成的协议。
在某种程度上，这一调查结果并不令人意外。此前的民调显示，约三分之二的美国人认为这场战争实际上无法有效阻止伊朗获得核武器——尽管特朗普称其目标是永远杜绝这一结果。
新的民调还显示，如果说有什么变化的话，特朗普在伊朗问题上的政治困境还在加剧。《华盛顿邮报-益普索》的民调显示，68%的美国人认为对伊朗战争不值得打，这一比例超过了此前伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争的反对比例。随着中期选举临近，特朗普在伊朗问题上的不支持率已升至69%。
但新的民调提炼出了他的核心问题：按照特朗普为自己设定的精确标准，这场战争似乎已经失败。
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唐纳德·特朗普总统周三乘坐海军一号离开宾夕法尼亚州卡莱尔市。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼基森/美联社
Americans think Trump won’t get a better Iran deal than Obama did, poll shows
2026-07-16 11:16 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
As President Donald Trump has tried to sell the Iran war to a skeptical public, he has repeatedly returned to one particular talking point: that Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal was a disaster, and he’s going to produce something much better.
In fact, Trump has mentioned Obama’s nuclear deal more than three dozen times since the war began, according to a CNN review of Roll Call’s Factbase transcripts.
A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll has some very bad news for Trump on that front.
It finds just 23% of Americans think Trump will be able to unveil a better Iran deal than Obama did back in 2015. And 37% — a 14-point split — wagered that Trump would produce a worse deal.
Another 12% expected the deals to be “about the same,” while the rest didn’t offer a view.
Even among Republicans, only a little more than half (54%) thought Trump will bring about a better agreement.
And that came overwhelmingly from his most devoted backers: 70% of MAGA Republicans said Trump would produce a better deal. Non-MAGA Republicans were about evenly split; while 27% of them thought Trump would get a better accord, 23% thought Obama’s would be better.
Just 13% of independents thought the president would produce a better deal.
The finding in many ways epitomizes Trump’s failure to build the case for a war that’s becoming an increasing political liability.
How many of those people truly understand what was in the Obama nuclear deal inked in 2015, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? It’s a fair question. Trump ripped that deal up nine years ago, and it was a very complicated agreement.
But that’s kind of beside the point.
For one, the JCPOA was pretty unpopular in real time. While some early polls showed people were open to it, a Pew Research Center poll in September 2015 showed Americans disapproved of it 49%-21%. By early 2016, a Gallup poll showed Americans disapproved of it 57%-30%.
That what Trump is pursuing inspires even less confidence is saying something.
Second, Trump has spent the last four and half months bashing that deal at every turn. He has routinely cast it as a complete sell-out to Iran that put the country on course to have a nuclear weapon.
“You know what the Iranians did?” Trump said a month ago alongside Egypt’s president. “They laughed at Obama and they said he’s a stupid son of a bitch.”
During a Monday appearance on Fox News, Trump called it “the worst agreement that has been signed by this country,” and even seemed to baselessly hint at something much more nefarious about Obama’s motivations for it.
Another key point: Few people think Trump will get a better deal even as he objectively invested much more in obtaining it. Trump went to war, costing more than a dozen American lives, quickly spending tens of billions of dollars and rocking the global economy. And there’s still no end in sight for the war, given Iran’s takeover of the Strait of Hormuz has created a huge problem that didn’t exist pre-war.
Yet the American people seem to prefer the agreement that Obama was able to strike using only diplomatic efforts.
In some ways, the finding isn’t surprising. Previous polls have shown around two-thirds of Americans don’t think the war will actually do much to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon — despite Trump saying his goal was to prevent that outcome forevermore.
And the new poll also suggests that, if anything, Trump’s political problem in Iran has gotten worse. The Post-Ipsos poll indicates 68% of Americans said the Iran war wasn’t worth fighting, which is more than ever said that for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Trump’s disapproval on Iran is now up to 69% as the midterm election tick ever closer.
But the new poll distills the crux of his problem: Based on the precise standard Trump has set for himself, the war seems like a failure.
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President Donald Trump departs Carlisle, Pennsylvania, on Marine One, on Wednesday.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
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