2026年6月18日 12:41 GMT / 路透社
作者：露西娅·穆蒂卡尼
2026年6月18日 下午12:41 UTC，1小时前更新
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- 每周初请失业金人数下降4000人，至22.6万人
- 5月至6月非农就业调查周期间初请失业金人数有所上升
- 持续领取失业金人数增加2.4万人，至181.0万人
华盛顿6月18日电（路透社）——上周美国申请失业救济金的人数有所下降，但仍处于略高的水平，这表明6月份就业增长的步伐有所放缓。
经济学家们总体上对美国劳工部周四发布的这份报告反应平淡，一些人指出，近期初请失业金人数上升可能与学年结束带来的季节性因素扭曲有关。他们认为，劳动力市场仍足够稳定，足以让美联储专注于遏制由伊朗战争推高的通胀。
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美联储周三将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间，但更新的季度预测显示，由于对通胀的担忧日益加剧，政策制定者预计今年将提高借贷成本。
“我们预计初请失业金人数不会从此持续走高，”牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家南希·范登·霍顿说道。“尽管近期触底后出现反弹，但初请失业金人数的水平仍与一系列广泛的劳动力市场指标相符，这些指标显示就业市场有所改善，但并未过热。这将允许美联储在等待通胀回落的同时维持现行政策不变。”
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劳工部称，在截至6月13日的一周，经季节调整后的州失业救济金初请人数下降4000人，至22.6万人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预计最新一周初请人数为22.5万人。此前初请失业金人数已连续三周上升，升至今年19万至23万区间的上限。
上周，俄勒冈州和明尼苏达州的未经调整初请失业金人数出现显著上升，这两个州是少数允许非教学人员在长达数月的学校假期期间申请失业救济金的州。政府用于剔除数据中季节性波动的模型并不总能捕捉到这些变动。
宾夕法尼亚州的初请失业金人数在上周增加3734人，此前一周激增5381人。此次增长被归因于运输和仓储业、行政和支持及废物管理和修复服务业，以及住宿和餐饮服务业、医疗保健和社会救助业的裁员。
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初请失业金人数与职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）的解雇情况
劳动力市场保持稳定
劳动力市场在2025年出现波动后，重拾增长势头，连续三个月实现强劲就业增长。裁员减少推动失业率连续三个月维持在4.3%。
美联储主席凯文·沃什对记者表示，美国央行货币政策制定委员会成员“认为劳动力市场稳定”，“委员会中有一些人认为劳动力市场的趋势比这更好”。
沃什补充道：“我认为就业数据一直朝着好的方向发展。”此次初请失业金数据的统计周期涵盖了政府调查企业和其他机构以获取6月就业报告中非农就业部分数据的时段。5月至6月的调查周期间，初请失业金人数有所上升。
“这暗示6月份就业创造可能出现放缓，”Brean Capital高级经济顾问约翰·赖丁说道。“不过，如果我们着眼于更广泛的趋势——正如沃什主席所希望的那样——几乎没有证据表明描述每周初请失业金人数的均值回归统计过程发生了变化。”
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5月非农就业人数增加17.2万人。就业增长的部分动力可能来自低裁员率，尽管一些商业调查显示就业指标出现疲软。
经济学家表示，政策不确定性，包括去年的进口关税以及如今的中东冲突，正在抑制招聘。美国和伊朗已签署停火协议。
初请失业金一周后仍在领取失业救济金的人数（这是衡量招聘情况的一个指标）在截至6月6日的一周经季节调整后增加2.4万人，至181万人。
所谓的持续领取失业金人数的增加与数据显示的许多失业人员经历长期失业的情况相符。政府本月公布的数据显示，5月失业中位数时长从4月的11.0周跃升至11.6周，为2021年11月以来的最长时长。
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US weekly jobless claims fall, but remain elevated
2026-06-18 12:41 GMT / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
June 18, 2026 12:41 PM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
A sign for hire is posted on the door of a GameStop in New York City, U.S., April 29, 2022. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Weekly jobless claims fall 4,000 to 226,000
- Claims rise between May and June nonfarm payrolls survey weeks
- Continuing claims increase 24,000 to 1.810 million
WASHINGTON, June 18 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but remained at slightly higher levels, suggesting some moderation in the pace of job growth in June.
Economists largely shrugged off the report from the Labor Department on Thursday, with some pointing out that the recent elevation in claims was likely due to seasonal distortions related to the end of the school year. They viewed the labor market as remaining stable enough for the Federal Reserve to focus on stamping out inflation, stoked by the Iran war.
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The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year amid growing concerns about inflation.
“We don’t expect claims to trend consistently higher from here,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “And despite the bounce off the recent lows, the level of initial claims is still consistent with a broad range of labor market indicators that show the job market has improved but isn’t overheating. That will allow the Fed to keep policy on hold while it waits for inflation to come down.”
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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000 for the week ended June 13, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims had increased for three straight weeks, pushing to the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for this year.
Last week, there were notable increases in unadjusted claims in Oregon and Minnesota, among the few states that allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during the months-long school holidays. Seasonal factors, the model used by the government to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data, do not always capture these moves.
Claims in Pennsylvania rose 3,734 last week after surging 5,381 in the prior week, an increase that was attributed to layoffs in transportation and warehousing, administrative and support and waste management and remediation services industries as well as in accommodation and food services, healthcare and social assistance.
blob:https://www.reuters.com/07d32028-3756-46f7-8515-cdbab4cabbaa
Initial claims and JOLTS firings
THE LABOR MARKET IS STABLE
The labor market has regained momentum, posting three straight months of strong job gains, after wobbling in 2025. Lower layoffs have kept the unemployment rate at 4.3% for three consecutive months.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters that members of the U.S. central bank’s policy-setting committee “thought that the labor markets were stable,” and “there were some people around the committee who thought that it was trending better than that.”
Warsh added, “I’d say the jobs data has been moving in a good direction.” The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses and other establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of June’s employment report. Claims increased between the May and June survey weeks.
“That hints at some potential slowing in June job creation,” said John Ryding, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital. “However, if we are looking at the broader trend, which Chair Warsh wants to do, there is little evidence of a change in the mean-reverting statistical process that has described weekly jobless claims.”
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Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs in May. Part of the strength in job growth is likely from low layoffs as some business surveys have shown weakness in employment measures.
Economists say policy uncertainty, including import tariffs last year and now the Middle East conflict, is constraining hiring. The U.S. and Iran have signed a ceasefire agreement.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.81 million during the week ended June 6, the claims report showed.
The increase in the so-called continuing claims aligns with data showing many unemployed people are experiencing long bouts of joblessness. The median duration of unemployment jumped to 11.6 weeks in May, the longest stretch since November 2021, from 11.0 weeks in April, the government reported this month.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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