2026-09-04T04:01:41.933Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-expected-rebound-august-unemployment-rate-forecast-steady-41-2026-09-04/
- 摘要
- 7月非农就业人数减少2.3万人后，8月预计增加5.6万人
- 失业率料维持在4.1%不变
- 年度工资增长预计从7月的3.2%放缓至3.0%
华盛顿9月4日（路透社）——美国8月就业增长可能反弹，此前地方政府教育部门带来的拖累得以扭转，但预计的复苏可能因终止海地移民临时保护身份导致的失业而受限。
市场密切关注的美国劳工部周五发布的就业报告预计将呈现出经济学家所称的“慢招聘、慢复苏”劳动力市场图景，上月失业率料维持在4.1%。
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劳动力市场势头在春季飙升后有所放缓，部分原因归咎于油价冲击以及美国领导的对伊朗战争带来的供应链紧张。2025年唐纳德·特朗普总统全面实施的进口关税阻碍了就业增长。
“企业曾以为2025年的部分问题已经过去，然后突然又出现了另一只黑天鹅事件，带来了一系列新的不确定性，”波士顿学院经济学教授布莱恩·贝休恩说道。“我们看到供应链出现严重问题，石油和燃料价格上涨，这种情况并未改变。这就是为什么就业数据较头几个月出现下滑。”
路透社对经济学家的调查显示，在7月非农就业人数减少2.3万人后，上月非农就业岗位预计增加5.6万个。预测区间从再减少2.5万个岗位到增加12.1万个岗位不等。
8月非农就业数据往往不及预期，经济学家将其归咎于夏季季节性异常。7月地方政府教育就业岗位减少4.96万个，预计8月的反弹将支撑非农就业数据。
休闲和酒店业在连续两个月裁员后，预计也将出现复苏。
但经济学家警告称，这些增长可能被终止数十万海地移民临时保护身份带来的失业抵消，此举影响了他们的工作许可。
“我们预计针对无证海地移民撤销临时保护身份将给就业岗位带来1.5万个的拖累，”摩根士丹利首席经济学家迈克尔·加彭说道。“实际影响可能大得多。受临时保护身份影响的海地移民约占全国就业岗位的16万个。”
临时保护身份终止带来的暂时性拖累
部分经济学家表示，这种拖累可能是暂时性的，将在医疗等劳动密集型服务行业显现，主要是护理行业。一些失去临时保护身份的移民可能会转向其他签证类别。
“如果8月非农就业数据比我们预期的稍弱，我们不一定会将疲软仅仅归因于临时保护身份到期，因为其他数据如招聘计划一直疲软，”花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克说道。
特朗普政府正通过驱逐和撤销临时保护身份打击移民，缩小了劳动力池。经济学家表示，这大幅减少了经济为跟上劳动年龄人口增长所需创造的就业岗位数量。经济学家估计，所谓的收支平衡率在每月0至5万个岗位之间。
劳动力供应减少——也是退休潮带来的结果——正在维持较低的失业率，尽管一些经济学家预计8月失业率将升至4.2%，理由是近期劳动力参与率降幅过大。
“自今年年初以来，劳动力参与率已下降整整一个百分点，相对于整体劳动力市场状况而言，这一下降幅度似乎过大，”安永咨询首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科说道。“下降主要反映了人口增长放缓、人口老龄化、退休人数增加以及移民流入减少。”
除非出现意外冲击，8月的就业报告不太可能影响美联储9月15日至16日政策会议的利率决定，市场焦点将放在下周的消费者价格指数报告上。劳动力市场并非通胀源头，预计年度工资增长将从7月的3.2%放缓至上月的3.0%。
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周四在路透社 NEXT 新闻人物活动上表示，如果即将公布的数据证实通胀压力正在降温，他倾向于支持本月维持利率不变。
根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的FedWatch工具，金融市场认为本月加息的概率为50%，低于周三的63.2%。
对通胀的担忧以及美联储缺乏前瞻性指引推高了美国国债收益率，经济学家表示这对美联储来说是个问题。
抵押贷款融资机构房地美周四公布的数据显示，收益率上升推动30年期固定抵押贷款利率升至6.71%，达到一年多来的高点，这可能进一步打击本就疲软的房地产市场。
“市场已经在收益率曲线中计入了紧缩政策；我们已经实施了75个基点的紧缩政策，这将放缓经济增速，”波士顿学院的贝休恩说道。“长期利率一直在上升的原因之一是，市场正在定价美联储政策的不确定性。这种不确定性与政治施压有关。”
露西娅·穆蒂卡尼 华盛顿报道；安德里亚·里奇 编辑
US job growth expected to rebound in August; unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.1%
2026-09-04T04:01:41.933Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-expected-rebound-august-unemployment-rate-forecast-steady-41-2026-09-04/
- Nonfarm payrolls forecast to increase 56,000 in August after decreasing 23,000 in July
- Unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.1%
- Annual wage growth estimated to slow to 3.0% from 3.2% in July
WASHINGTON, Sept 4 (Reuters) – U.S. payrolls growth likely rebounded in August as the drag from local government education reversed, but the anticipated recovery could be limited by job losses related to the termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to paint a picture of a labor market that economists say remains in a “slow hire, slow fire” mode, with the unemployment rate forecast to have held steady at 4.1% last month.
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Labor market momentum has decelerated after surging in the spring, partly blamed on the oil price shock and supply chain strains from the U.S.-led war with Iran. Job growth was hobbled by President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs in 2025.
“Businesses felt some of the problems from 2025 were behind, then all of a sudden we get another black swan event that introduces a new set of uncertainties,” said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. “We saw significant problems with supply chains, oil and fuel prices went up, and that situation has not changed. So that’s why the job numbers have dropped from what we saw in the first few months.”
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 56,000 jobs last month after declining 23,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Estimates ranged from as low as another loss of 25,000 jobs to as high as a 121,000 gain.
August payrolls have a tendency to undershoot expectations, with economists blaming a summer seasonal quirk. Local government education employment dropped by 49,600 in July, and a rebound was expected to underpin payrolls in August.
A recovery was also anticipated in the leisure and hospitality industry after losing jobs for two straight months.
Economists, however, cautioned that those gains could be offset by the termination of TPS for hundreds of thousands of Haitian immigrants, which impacted their work permits.
“We are assuming a 15,000 drag on payrolls from the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for unauthorized Haitian immigrants,” said Michael Gapen, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. “It could be much larger. The TPS-affected Haitians account for an estimated 160,000 of national payrolls.”
TEMPORARY DRAG FROM TPS TERMINATION
The drag, which some economists said could be temporary, would be evident in labor-intensive services sectors like healthcare, mostly care-giving. Some immigrants who lost their TPS could move to other visa categories.
“If payroll employment in August is a bit weaker than we expect, we would not necessarily dismiss weakness as only a result of the TPS expiration, as other data like hiring plans have been soft,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup.
The Trump administration is cracking down on immigration, through deportations and revocations of TPS, shrinking the labor pool. That has drastically reduced the number of jobs economists say the economy needs to create to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Economists estimate the so-called break-even rate at between zero and 50,000 jobs per month.
Reduced labor supply, also the result of retirements, is keeping the unemployment rate lower, though some economists expected the jobless rate to rise to 4.2% in August, arguing the recent drop in the labor force participation rate was excessive.
“Participation has fallen a full percentage point since the start of the year, a decline that appears outsized relative to broader labor market conditions,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “The drop mainly reflects reduced population growth, aging demographics and rising retirements, and lower immigration flows.”
Barring a shock, August’s employment report was unlikely to impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the U.S. central bank’s September 15-16 policy meeting, with the focus on next week’s Consumer Price Index report. The labor market is not a source of inflation, with annual wage growth estimated to have slowed to 3.0% last month from 3.2% in July.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event on Thursday that he was inclined to argue in favor of keeping rates steady this month if upcoming data confirmed inflation pressures were cooling off.
Financial markets saw a 50% chance of a rate hike this month, down from 63.2% on Wednesday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Concerns about inflation and lack of forward guidance from the Fed have helped to boost U.S. Treasury yields, which economists said was a problem for the central bank.
Rising yields drove the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a more than one-year high of 6.71% this week, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed on Thursday, which could further undermine a struggling housing market.
“The markets have already dialed in tightening on the yield curve; we got 75 basis points of tightening and that’s going to slow down the economy,” said Boston College’s Bethune. “One of the reasons the long-term rates have been going up is because it’s pricing in uncertainty about what the Fed is going to do. That uncertainty is connected with political intimidation.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci