2026-03-30T22:34:56.001Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：凯文·利普塔克、詹妮弗·汉斯勒、凯莉·阿特伍德
发布于1小时28分钟前
2026年3月30日美国东部时间下午6:34发布
2026年3月29日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在前往马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地的空军一号专机上对媒体讲话。
伊丽莎白·弗朗茨/路透社
随着唐纳德·特朗普总统的特使们准备再次与伊朗展开外交接触，其外交努力背后笼罩着一个重大疑问：他们正在沟通的伊朗官员是否有能力达成协议？
美国及海湾地区官员透露，美方官员目前并不完全清楚，通过巴基斯坦和土耳其传递信息时接触到的伊朗政权官员，是否拥有最终签署任何和平协议的权力，更遑论落实协议。
截至目前，特朗普似乎愿意试探他的新伊朗谈判对手的实际权力——就连政府内部也无人愿意公开透露这些谈判代表的身份。尽管德黑兰方面称美国结束战争的15点提议“不切实际”，且特朗普正在中东地区增兵，但特朗普仍表示谈判进展顺利，并将新的谈判代表形容为“更加通情达理”。
不过，目前仍不清楚这种最终可能促成面对面会谈的间接往来，能否促使伊朗做出其在战争爆发前不愿做出的让步。据一位了解相关情况的消息人士透露，此前几轮外交谈判因美国发动袭击而夭折，部分伊朗政权人士因此对美国心存猜忌。
而如今，随着多数政权高层被清除，伊朗国内对于谁将最终决定结束战争的协议存在不确定性。
“如今没人能断言，无论谁出现在伊斯兰堡，都能代表伊朗政权做出决定，”一位地区消息人士说道，他提及的巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡是传闻中美伊最终举行面对面会谈的潜在地点。
美国官员正在与哪些人接触
美国及地区消息人士透露，特朗普政府一直在间接与伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇以及议会议长穆罕默德·巴希尔·加利卜夫沟通。官员们认为，后者有可能——甚至可能是唯一一位——能够对新任最高领袖穆赫塔米·哈梅内伊施加影响。
但四位地区消息人士表示，由于伊朗政权内部谁在做决策存在不确定性，美国政府仍在广泛接触各类官员。
大约两周前，伊朗最高安全官员阿里·拉里贾尼在以色列空袭中身亡，这进一步加剧了人们对伊朗当前掌权者的质疑。地区及美国官员此前曾将拉里贾尼——他曾是伊朗谈判团队成员——视为核心圈内人物，认为无论最终决策者是谁，他都能可靠地代表政权进行沟通。
伊朗伊斯兰政府的高层已被大幅削弱，就连许多职位的第二顺位人选也在一个月前美以联合发动的战争中被清除。
“旧政权被彻底摧毁，所有人都死了。新政权也基本覆灭，”特朗普周日晚间在空军一号专机上说道。总统表示，如今伊朗已进入“第三个政权”阶段，美国官员正与其进行间接谈判，并称他们是“一群完全不同的人”。
让情况更为复杂的是穆赫塔米·哈梅内伊的不明状态。美国高级官员曾公开表示，他们认为哈梅内伊要么受伤，要么甚至已经死亡，但伊朗官员坚称他仍在世且掌握实权。自其父遇袭身亡后他被提拔为最高领袖以来，他从未公开露面或发声，仅通过书面声明传达信息。
“没人见过他，也没人收到过他的消息，”美国国务卿马可·卢比奥周一在半岛电视台节目中说道。他表示，伊朗当前的政权结构“非常不透明，目前完全不清楚决策是如何做出的”。
巴基斯坦和土耳其的调解方也在与伊朗官员沟通时遇到困难，因为这些官员经常长时间远离手机或其他电子设备，藏身隐蔽处以避免被击杀。
“短期内很难从该国得到回应，因此未来开展对话的前提是必须给予更多时间，”一位了解当前谈判进展的消息人士说道。
这些沟通难题进一步加剧了美国官员对德黑兰谁拥有实际决策权的疑虑。不过，政府内部官员坚持认为，尽管目前仍处于初步阶段，但谈判确实存在，且特朗普仍对达成协议抱有希望。
“归根结底，我们必须确认这些人确实是掌权者，看看他们是否有能力兑现承诺。我们将对此进行测试，”卢比奥在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时补充道。他还表示，美国必须做好准备，应对“掌权者并不比冲突爆发前的政权领导人更通情达理”的可能性。
据了解相关对话的人士透露，这位国务卿在法国举行的七国集团会议上，已向其 counterparts 传达了美国政府对伊朗谈判的部分看法，包括对决策者身份的不确定性。
美国及地区官员表示，截至目前，尽管本周不太可能举行面对面会谈，但双方私下都在认真对待此次谈判。官员们透露，特朗普的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和贾里德·库什纳一直在牵头美国的外交努力，若会谈得以实现，副总统JD·万斯可能会代表美国出席。
伊朗方面的不信任
然而，鉴于冲突爆发前发生的一系列事件，伊朗政权内部部分人士对美国是否秉持诚意进行谈判仍存在严重不信任：此前多轮会谈看似取得进展，却因特朗普批准大规模空袭而付诸东流。
一位了解相关情况的人士表示，鉴于这段历史，部分政权人士仍反对谈判。该群体不愿再次被特朗普欺骗，尤其是在他向中东增兵并威胁打击伊朗民用基础设施的当下。
周一，伊朗外交部称美国的15点提议“不切实际、不合逻辑且过度苛刻”，白宫对此淡化了伊朗的负面回应。
“公开表态当然与我们私下沟通的内容大相径庭，”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利夫特对记者说道。她随后补充道：“在这些私下对话中，这些人表现得比此前那些已不在人世的前任领导人更加通情达理。”
一些地区国家认为，伊朗批准更多船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，是德黑兰希望为谈判创造条件的信号，尽管他们尚未就美国的完整提议作出回应。对这条关键水道的封锁已导致油价飙升。
但即便双方很快更积极地投入谈判，地区消息人士仍认为全面协议远未达成。
“无论参会者级别高低，我们都不指望这些问题能在几周内得到解决，”该地区消息人士补充道。“外交轨道非常复杂，将需要很长时间。”
一位消息人士透露，有关各方正在提出一些严格聚焦于海峡安全通行的提案，而不涉及更大范围的战争问题。该消息人士表示，外界预期在此问题上达成的任何潜在协议都将与美伊全面协议分开，称此类计划是短期的“建立信任措施”。
战争仍在继续
就在特朗普推动达成协议的同时，美军行动仍在持续。白宫周一表示，战争期间已打击1.1万个目标，击沉150艘舰艇。
根据政府的早期估计，这场战争预计将持续4至6周，这意味着结束战争的窗口现已开启。利夫特周一重申了这一计划时间表。
然而，伊朗仍在向其邻国发射导弹和无人机，并持续封锁霍尔木兹海峡。该国还藏匿着近1000公斤高浓缩铀，据称埋藏在地下深处。尽管白宫坚称伊朗政权越来越渴望达成协议，但该地区其他国家却看到了不同的现实。
“他们想慢慢来，”该地区消息人士说道，并称伊朗封锁海峡的能力是其决策中的“一大因素”。
尽管军事行动仍在持续，但伊朗政权仍保持高度意识形态化，因此不太可能轻易妥协。
“你面对的是比哈马斯还要糟糕十倍的人，”该消息人士说道。
As Trump touts ‘reasonable’ Iranian negotiators, there’s uncertainty about their decision-making power
2026-03-30T22:34:56.001Z / CNN
By Kevin Liptak, Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood
1 hr 28 min ago
PUBLISHED Mar 30, 2026, 6:34 PM ET
President Donald Trump talks to the press aboard Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on March 29, 2026.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
As President Donald Trump’s envoys gear up for another go at diplomacy with Iran, a major question hovers over their efforts: do the officials they’re communicating with have the juice to make a deal?
It’s not entirely clear to American officials whether the regime figures receiving their messages — which have been passed along by Pakistan and Turkey — have the ultimate authority to sign-off on any peace agreement, let alone implement one, US and Gulf officials said.
So far, Trump appears willing to test the relative power of his new Iranian interlocutors, who no one in the administration is willing to identify publicly. Even as Tehran has called the US’ 15-point proposal to end the war “unrealistic” and as Trump amasses troops in the region, the president says talks are going well and has cast new negotiators as “more reasonable.”
Still, it remains unclear whether this indirect back-and-forth, which could eventually produce in-person talks, will spur Iran to make concessions it was unwilling to make before the war. Some in the Iranian regime are distrustful of the US after earlier rounds of diplomacy were scuttled by American attacks, according to one source familiar with the situation.
And now, with most of the regime knocked out, there’s uncertainty around who would make the final decision about any deal to end the war.
“No one can tell anyone today that whomever shows up to Islamabad has the power for the Iranian regime,” said one regional source, referring to the Pakistani capital that’s a rumored potential location for eventual in-person talks between the US and Iran.
Who US officials are speaking with
American and regional sources said the Trump administration has been indirectly exchanging messages with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the latter being seen by officials as someone — potentially the only one — who could have influence with new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
But the administration continues to cast a wide net for officials to speak with given the uncertainty around who is making decisions in the Iranian regime, four regional sources said.
When top security Iranian official Ali Larijani was killed by an Israeli airstrike about two weeks ago, it led to even more questions about who was in charge. Regional and US officials had viewed Larijani — who was part of the Iranian negotiating team — as within the inner-circle and someone who could reliably engage on behalf of the regime’s decision-makers, whomever they may be.
So diminished are the upper ranks of Iran’s Islamic government that even the second options for many positions were taken out as part of the joint US-Israeli war that began a month ago.
“The one regime was decimated, destroyed, they’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead,” Trump said Sunday night on Air Force One. Now, the president said, Iran has moved onto a “third regime” that US officials are indirectly negotiating with, calling them “a whole different group of people.”
Complicating matters is the unknown status of Mojtaba Khamenei. Top American officials have said publicly they believe he is wounded or even dead, though Iranian officials insist he is alive and in charge. He hasn’t been seen or heard since he was elevated to supreme leader after his father was killed, and communicates only through written statements.
“No one has seen him. No one has heard from him,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Al-Jazeera on Monday. He said the regime structure in Iran is “very opaque right now. It’s not quite clear how decisions are being made.”
Mediators from Pakistan and Turkey are also running into difficulty communicating with Iranian officials, since they are often away from phones or devices for long stretches, hunkered down to avoid being killed.
“It is not easy to get response in a short time from that country, so more time has to be afforded as a prerequisite for dialogue down the line,” said a source familiar with the ongoing efforts.
Those communication challenges have only aggravated doubts among US officials about who has real authority in Tehran. Still, officials inside the administration insist the negotiations are real, if preliminary, and that Trump remains hopeful for a deal.
“At the end of the day, we have to see these people end up being the ones in charge, seeing if they’re the ones that have the power to deliver. We’re going to test it,” Rubio said in a separate interview on ABC News, adding that the US has to be ready for the “probability” that those in charge are not more reasonable than the regime leaders before the conflict.
The secretary of state conveyed some of the administration’s thinking on talks with Iran, including uncertainty around the decision-makers, to his counterparts at a Group of 7 meeting in France last week, according to people familiar with the conversations.
So far, both sides are privately taking the talks seriously, even if an in-person meeting doesn’t appear likely this week, US and regional officials said. Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been leading the American diplomatic efforts, and Vice President JD Vance could represent the US at potential talks if they materialize, officials have said.
Iranian distrust
Yet there remains a deep lack of trust in some elements of the Iranian regime that the US is negotiating in good faith, given what happened before the onset of the conflict: a string of meetings that appeared to yield progress, only for Trump to approve a massive round of airstrikes.
A subset of regime figures remains opposed to negotiations, given that history, the person familiar with the situation said. That group doesn’t want to be fooled again by Trump, particularly as he sends additional American troops into the region and issues threats against Iran’s civilian infrastructure.
The White House on Monday downplayed Iran’s pessimistic response to its 15-point proposal, which the foreign ministry called “unrealistic, illogical and excessive.”
“What is said publicly is, of course, much different than what’s being communicated to us privately,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. She added later that “these folks are appearing more reasonable behind the scenes privately in these conversations than perhaps some of the previous leaders, who are now no longer on planet Earth.”
Some regional players believe Iran’s decision to green light a higher number of vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz was a signal that Tehran wants to set conditions for talks, even if they haven’t replied to the full US proposal. The stranglehold on the key waterway has caused a spike in oil prices.
But even if both sides more actively engage in negotiations soon, regional sources expect an overall agreement is far from being reached.
“Whoever shows up, high level or low level, we don’t expect these issues to be resolved in a few weeks,” the regional source added. “The diplomatic track is quite complex and it will take a long time.”
Interested parties are floating some proposals that strictly focus on safe passage through the strait, one source said, without addressing the larger war. The expectation is that any potential agreement on that front would be separate from an overall US-Iran deal, the source said, describing such a plan as a short-term “confidence building-measure.”
The war is ongoing
While Trump pushes for a deal, his military operation has continued apace. The White House said Monday that 11,000 targets had been struck over the course of the war and 150 naval vessels had been sunk.
According to the administration’s early estimations, the war was expected to last between four and six weeks, meaning the window for ending it has now opened. Leavitt restated that planned timetable Monday.
Yet Iran continues to fire missiles and drones toward its neighbors and keep the Strait of Hormuz in a stranglehold. It also retains nearly 1,000 kilograms of highly enriched uranium believed to be buried deep underground. While the White House insists the regime is increasingly eager to make a deal, others in the region see a different reality.
“They want to take their time,” the regional source said, calling Iran’s ability to snarl the strait “a big factor” in its calculations.
And despite the ongoing military operations, the Iranian regime remains highly ideological, and therefore unlikely to easily bend.
“You’re dealing with people who are 10 times worse than Hamas,” that source said.