2026-07-25T10:02:34.835Z / https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/this-wave-trump-tariffs-is-likely-here-stay-more-are-coming-2026-07-25/
摘要
- 美国贸易代表办公室称，新的10%或12.5%强迫劳动关税覆盖美国99.4%的进口商品
- 格雷尔表示，重建的关税层级不会超过已达成的贸易协定中的上限
- 最新行动包括针对产能过剩以及越南被指侵犯知识产权的调查
华盛顿7月25日路透电 — 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普去年重返白宫后，不愿耗时进行冗长的关税调查，希望立刻对贸易伙伴施压以换取让步。
随之而来的是一度混乱的贸易议程，最终在今年因最高法院的严厉裁决而搁浅。如今，他和团队正进入新阶段，利用更传统且经法院检验的贸易法律打造更持久的美国关税壁垒——而18个月前，他对这类法律毫无耐心。
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特朗普最新的全球关税举措——针对60个国家征收10%或12.5%的关税，理由是这些国家对强迫劳动禁令执行不力——是未来数月即将公布的一系列关税行动的开端。这些行动包括针对工业产能过剩的调查、针对越南被指侵犯知识产权的调查，以及对半导体、机器人和工业机械等战略产业的国家安全保护措施。
“我们正处于特朗普关税议程的‘初期收尾阶段’，”加拿大石油生产商森诺夫能源公司负责美加贸易的副总法律顾问丹·乌杰佐说道。“未来几周内，肯定在今夏结束前，特朗普总统的大部分贸易政策将全面生效。”
这可能会让企业对特朗普最终的关税结构有更清晰的预期和确定性，但也会让外国贸易部门感到担忧，它们可能不得不做出更多让步，以保住价值3.4万亿美元的美国进口市场准入资格。
直接替代方案
特朗普根据1974年《贸易法》第301条（其首届任期内针对中国使用的不公平贸易做法法案）推出的新反强迫劳动关税，几乎直接替代了上周五到期的全球10%临时关税。美国贸易代表办公室称，这些关税覆盖美国99.4%的进口商品。
此举重建了特朗普标志性的“解放日”关税体系的一部分——该体系曾对几乎所有国家征收10%至50%的关税，美国最高法院裁定特朗普以此为借口实施关税的未经检验的国家紧急状态法非法，因此将其推翻。
基准关税的另一部分可能将通过另一项针对工业产能过剩的第301条调查重建，调查对象包括中国、欧盟、日本、韩国、墨西哥和越南等16个主要贸易伙伴。这项正在进行的调查针对工业补贴和其他以出口为导向的政策。
在外界对特朗普的举措广泛抗议之际，一些人认为这在很大程度上维持了现状。
密歇根州真空设备制造商必胜公司首席执行官马克·比塞尔表示，最新关税基本符合该公司的预期，该公司并未提前从中国和其他地区备货以规避关税。
“我们一直基于关税将维持在10%至15%区间的预期开展业务，”比塞尔在给路透社的电子邮件中说道。
预算影响
特朗普上任初期推出的仓促且未经检验的关税政策产生了四大影响。它给零售商和其他依赖进口的行业增加了成本；促使数十个贸易伙伴坐到谈判桌前，达成了降低税率的让步；引发了中国迅速的报复和关税升级，最终达成了脆弱的休战；还为美国财政金库带来了数千亿美元的收入。
仅“解放日”关税就带来了1660亿美元的收入，大幅抵消了不断扩大的联邦赤字，但如今向进口商的退税已导致这些税收收入转为负值。
根据一项旨在遏制国际收支危机的法律征收的150天临时关税，截至7月5日已带来310亿美元的评估收入。但如果联邦法院针对这些关税的裁决维持原判，这笔资金也将面临退税。
随着美国公共债务接近40万亿美元，大西洋理事会国际经济学主席乔希·利普斯基表示，后续政府可能会对这种有望持续的关税收入产生依赖。
“关税壁垒正一块砖一块砖地坚固重建，而且非常持久，”利普斯基说道。
特朗普在强迫劳动案件中广泛使用第301条的做法立即引发了小企业的法律挑战，但贸易和法律专家表示，这一过程需要时间。该法规在法院有着良好的记录，法官可能不愿阻止旨在遏制强迫劳动、降低美国商品准入壁垒的行动。
更多关税即将到来
美国贸易代表贾米森·格雷尔本周明确表示，特朗普将动用一切可用手段征收关税，以推动生产回流并缩小贸易逆差。
“本届政府使用的具体权力已经改变，但贸易战略并未改变，”格雷尔在美国参议院财政委员会说道。
格雷尔尚未公布工业产能调查的时间表，但他表示，重建的关税层级不会超过他正在谈判的协议中包含的上限：欧盟、日本和韩国的关税上限为15%，东南亚国家的税率更高。
政府官员称，尽管中国被视为全球最大的制造业过剩来源国，但其关税税率不会超过去年11月特朗普与中国国家主席习近平达成的约20%的上限，该税率将叠加在其首届任期内的25%关税之上。
一些名义上的——或宣布的——关税可能高于实际执行税率，分析师称这可能是迫使各国遵守已达成的贸易协议条款的执法机制。
尽管如此，仍有一些举措出人意料，包括特朗普周一宣布对加拿大啤酒、乳制品、曲棍球杆等产品征收50%的关税，理由是渥太华拒绝做出贸易让步，以及他因西班牙未达到北约军费开支目标而威胁切断与该国的所有贸易。
康奈尔大学贸易教授、国际货币基金组织前中国部门主管埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德表示，这种即兴发布关税公告的倾向仍是持续存在的风险。“特朗普急于通过征收关税解决各种不满的态度，不仅将继续扰乱全球贸易体系，还将对美国家庭和企业产生重大不利影响。”
戴维·劳德报道；安德里亚·里奇编辑
我们的标准：汤森路透信托原则。
This wave of Trump tariffs is likely here to stay; more are coming
2026-07-25T10:02:34.835Z / https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/this-wave-trump-tariffs-is-likely-here-stay-more-are-coming-2026-07-25/
Summary
- New forced-labor duties of 10% or 12.5% cover 99.4% of U.S. imports, USTR said
- Greer said rebuilt tariff layers will not exceed caps in negotiated trade deals
- The latest actions include probes into excess capacity and alleged Vietnamese intellectual property theft
WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump had no time for lengthy tariff investigations when he returned to office last year, wanting to hammer trading partners right away to wring concessions.
What followed was a chaotic start to a trade agenda that was eventually upended by a stinging Supreme Court defeat this year. Now he and his team are moving into a new phase to build a more durable U.S. tariff wall using more traditional and court-tested trade laws, those he had little patience for 18 months ago.
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His latest global tariff salvo — duties of 10% or 12.5% on 60 countries over allegedly weak enforcement of forced-labor bans — marks the first of numerous tariff actions to be unveiled in the months ahead. They include probes into excess industrial capacity, alleged intellectual property theft by Vietnam, and national security protections for strategic industries from semiconductors to robotics and industrial machinery.
“We’re at the end of the beginning of the Trump tariff agenda,” said Dan Ujczo, associate general counsel at Canadian oil producer Cenovus Energy, who specializes in U.S.-Canada trade. “Within the next few weeks, and certainly by the end of the summer, we will see large parts of President Trump’s trade policy fully in effect.”
This could bring more clarity and certainty for businesses on Trump’s ultimate tariff structure, along with dread in foreign trade ministries that they may have to cough up more concessions to protect access to a $3.4 trillion U.S. import market.
DIRECT REPLACEMENTS
Trump’s new anti-forced labor duties imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the unfair trade practices statute used against China during his first term, almost directly replace a global 10% temporary tariff that expired on Friday. They cover 99.4% of U.S. imports, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said.
This rebuilds part of Trump’s signature “Liberation Day” tariffs of 10%-50% on nearly every country, which the U.S. Supreme Court struck down as illegal under an untested national emergencies law Trump used to impose them.
Another part of the baseline tariffs is likely to be rebuilt by another Section 301 investigation into excess industrial capacity, targeting 16 big trading partners, including China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Vietnam. That ongoing probe targets industrial subsidies and other export-focused policies.
Amid a wider uproar over Trump’s move, some viewed it as largely maintaining the status quo.
Mark Bissell, CEO of Michigan-based vacuum maker Bissell Inc, said the newest tariffs were largely what the company anticipated and it hadn’t frontloaded inventory from China and elsewhere to try to beat them.
“We continued to run the business based on the belief that the tariffs would stay in the 10-15% range,” Bissell said in an email to Reuters.
BUDGET IMPACT
Trump’s gamble on quick but untested tariffs right out of the gate did four things. It heaped added costs onto retailers and other import-dependent industries; it brought dozens of trading partners to the negotiating table, yielding concessions for lower rates; it prompted swift retaliation and tariff escalation from China that led to a delicate truce; and it filled U.S. fiscal coffers with hundreds of billions of dollars.
The Liberation Day tariffs alone yielded $166 billion in revenue, a major offset to a growing federal deficit, but refunds to importers have now turned those collections negative.
The 150-day temporary tariffs, based on a law meant to quell balance-of-payments crises, have added $31 billion in assessed revenue through July 5. But if a federal court ruling against them stands, that money, too, is subject to refund.
With U.S. public debt approaching $40 trillion, Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, said subsequent administrations may become addicted to tariff revenue that is likely to be sustained.
“The tariff wall is being rebuilt strong brick by strong brick, and it’s very durable,” Lipsky said.
Trump’s broad use of Section 301 in the forced-labor case prompted an immediate legal challenge by small businesses, but trade and legal experts say this will take time to play out. The statute has a solid track record in the courts, and judges may be reluctant to enjoin actions aimed at curbing forced labor and lowering barriers to U.S. goods.
MORE TO COME
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made clear this week that Trump will use everything at his disposal to erect tariffs to reshore production and shrink the trade deficit.
“The specific authorities this administration is using have changed, but the trade strategy has not,” Greer told the U.S. Senate Finance Committee.
Greer, who has not committed to a timeline for the industrial capacity investigations, has said the layers of tariffs being rebuilt will not exceed caps included in deals he has been negotiating, including 15% for the EU, Japan and South Korea and higher rates for Southeast Asian countries.
Administration officials say even though China is viewed as the world’s largest source of excess manufacturing, its rates will not exceed the cap of about 20% agreed by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last November, which is on top of the 25% tariffs from his first term.
Some nominal — or announced — duties may be higher than actual applied rates, which analysts say may be an enforcement mechanism for countries to stick to agreed trade deal terms.
Still, some things continue to come out of the blue, including the 50% duties on Canadian beer, dairy, hockey sticks and other products Trump announced on Monday over Ottawa’s refusal to make trade concessions, and his threat to cut off all trade with Spain over not meeting NATO military spending targets.
That proclivity for spontaneous tariff announcements remains an ongoing risk, said Eswar Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell University and former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China department. “Trump’s eagerness to impose tariffs to address a whole range of grievances will not only continue disrupting the global trading system but will have significant adverse effects on American households and businesses.”
Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.