2026-09-10T15:00:29.141Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/10/politics/trump-midterm-strategy
美国民众似乎不再相信，唯有他能解决国家的一切问题。
2016年总统提名 convention 上，唐纳德·特朗普将自己标榜为能够终结美国所有困境的独一无二的力量。
十年后的周三晚间，在一场共和党中期选举伪代表大会上，他抛出了更诱人的承诺：向每位选民发放5000美元的“头奖”。
但民调显示，总统的承诺与选民对其执政表现的评价之间存在巨大差距。因此，他将中期选举完全聚焦于自身的做法，正承担着巨大风险。
“让我们完成2025年就职以来的工作，这将是美国总统任期史上最伟大的两年，”他在得州的演讲台上说道。
但2025年他连任就职演说中公布的最新“解决问题清单”，几乎没有多少项取得进展。当时他承诺“迅速降低各类成本和物价”，并声称其第二任期将因“我们从未卷入的战争”而被铭记。
美国人仍在为食品、住房和医疗保健的价格发愁。由于伊朗战争，汽油价格正急剧上涨——特朗普曾多次宣称打赢了这场战争，但如今他又表示，这场战争要到11月3日中期选举结束后才会结束。
据美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，特朗普在达拉斯发表中期选举演讲数小时后，全国平均汽油价格上涨至4.28美元，为6月2日以来的最高水平。
如果说特朗普在2024年大选中凭借经济和国家安全议题赢得了选民授权，如今他正近乎将其挥霍一空。
这形成了一种怪异的核心竞选态势——而周三晚间的活动更是让这种态势得到了巩固。
这个本就不太受信任的在野党，正迫切希望将民众的注意力从自身的弊端转移到这位不受欢迎的现任总统的执政记录上。而令人意外的是，这位极不受欢迎的现任总统正竭尽所能地帮他们达成目的。
“我要求你们把我当成这次选举的候选人，”特朗普周三晚间说道。
民主党人根本不用费什么口舌，就能向选民们宣传这位支持率仅为30%出头、在几乎所有重大议题上都不得民心的总统。
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组图：首届共和党中期选举大会
9月9日周三，唐纳德·特朗普总统在达拉斯美国航空中心举行的首届共和党中期选举大会上登台演讲。（特里斯滕·劳斯/CNN 摄）
恐怕也唯有这位总统，敢举办一场为期两天的“特朗普狂欢节”，且 himself 担任两天晚间的主旨演讲嘉宾。
周三特朗普抨击民主党是激进的极左翼社会主义者和共产主义者后，共和党战略家们或许更希望他能退居幕后，让候选人聚焦于各自的选区竞选，尝试否定各自的对手。
但他决心让自己成为每个选区的核心议题。
“我会走访各地，”他在周三预览将开启的选举热点地区密集巡回行程时说道。
当然，任何认为这位总统可能会低调行事的人，想必都忽略了过去十年的政治轨迹。
2026年中期选举原本就注定会完全围绕特朗普展开。无论你是爱他还是恨他，自2015年夏天他走下金色电梯宣布参选以来，美国乃至全球的几乎所有政治事务都围绕着他转。
特朗普能赢得两次总统大选，恰恰是因为他将竞选完全聚焦于自身——而非相反。他的 outsider 形象、自封的终极赢家人设，以及时常粗粝的行事风格，改写了政治游戏规则。他倾听了那些在全球化经济和他们眼中傲慢的精英领导人眼中被剥夺权利、不受尊重的民众的经济焦虑。
如今，这位总统似乎已不再关心这些议题，而他对聚光灯的渴求，正让民主党攻击共和党变得轻松得近乎滑稽。
“唐纳德·特朗普希望借助一场华丽的黄金时段活动，让你们忘记：他的贸易战正在推高民众的食品杂货成本，他发动的伊朗战争正在打击牧场主和农民的生计，而他对本国工薪阶层、工薪家庭发动的‘战争’，则推高了医疗保健和住房成本，”伊利诺伊州民主党州长JB·普里茨克周三在得州说道。
这些鲜明的对比，也解释了为何一些处境脆弱的共和党议员不愿出席特朗普在得州的这场活动——尽管许多摇摆选区的众议院候选人以及关键参议院竞选参与者都到场了。
但无论如何，这或许都不会产生太大影响。
在特朗普主导并重塑共和党十年之后，共和党已经不存在非特朗普式的竞选纲领。而且他早已将大多数“特朗普主义异端”驱逐出了党内外。
但这位总统本可以为自己的阵营做更多事情。
一些保守派人士感到不满，认为这位亿万富翁总统并未对那些将其所谓经济“黄金时代”视为泡影的美国人表现出更多共情。当他在任内积累个人财富时，却还在嘲讽民众最关心的经济负担能力议题，这形象实在糟糕。
所有总统在白宫任职数年后都会与民众脱节。而特朗普对黄金饰品和大理石纪念工程的偏爱，让这座“笼子”变得更加金光闪闪。
特朗普周三辩称，他打击了犯罪、阻止了非法移民、重创了芬太尼贸易、通过减税让美国人变得更富裕，并降低了医疗成本。其中部分说法属实——尽管他的行事方式可能正在疏远更多温和派选民。而他所谓迅速降低物价的说法并不准确。
但他是否已经丧失了政治敏感度？
他拒绝理解跨党派民众对人工智能数据中心的愤怒，这本应是2016年的特朗普能够敏锐察觉的政治风险信号。
当政客试图说服民众不要相信自己的日常现实感受时，通常都会以失败告终。
从这个角度来看，他承诺的5000美元“分红”更像是一种转移注意力的手段，而非为了彰显自己的执政成就。（特朗普承诺，如果共和党在11月保住参众两院多数席位，将向每位美国成年人发放这笔款项。但该提案恐怕很难在国会通过，还可能让联邦国债增加1万亿美元甚至更多。）
CNN最新针对竞争激烈的缅因州和密歇根州参议院选举的民调印证了这一点——这两场选举将决定明年参众两院的控制权归属。两州约三分之二的可能选民不认可特朗普的执政表现，愤怒或不满的选民人数远超满意和热情的选民人数。经济和生活成本无疑是两州的头号议题。当被问及那句可能葬送现任者的经典问题时，超过2:1的选民表示，自己的财务状况比两年前更糟。
其他民调也显示，民众明确反感特朗普口中的“胜利成果”。他们厌恶他的关税政策和伊朗战争，尽管他部分当选的承诺是确保南部边境安全，但他领导的移民海关执法局对无证移民的镇压，已经赶走了许多独立选民。
但目前尚不清楚这位总统是否真的关心那些动摇摇摆选民的议题。
近日他的社交媒体动态——展现他未经脚本修饰的关注点——充斥着一系列怪异的话题，完全没有提及食品杂货价格。
他执着于修改地图上湖泊和海洋的名称。他宣称“月球属于我们”，还公布了太空部队司令部礼服的设计方案，该方案带有相当黑暗的历史隐喻。他宏大的建筑计划同样表明，这届总统任期的重心是打造个人 legacy，而非解决困扰美国民众的经济难题。
但有一个理由能解释他为何执意占据聚光灯，或许还算说得通。
特朗普过去总能吸引其他政客无法触及的选民群体，并打破民主党在铁锈地带白人工薪阶层中的核心票仓优势。
他能否再次施展魔力，最后一次扮演精英、传统媒体以及其选民基础痛恨的社会文化变革的抨击者？
这或许无法保住共和党对参众两院一院或两院的控制权，但或许能减轻他们的选举损失。
共和党早已做出了选择。他们依靠特朗普的运动上台，如今已无法与其切割。
“事实上，我确实正在参选。我们可能自己都没意识到，但我们确实是在并肩参选，”他周三晚间说道。
唯一的路径依旧未变：一切都围绕特朗普，无时无刻。
How Trump created a bizarre and risky midterm scenario for the GOP
2026-09-10T15:00:29.141Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/10/politics/trump-midterm-strategy
America no longer seems to believe that he, alone, can fix it.
At his 2016 convention, Donald Trump billed himself as the unique force who could end America’s troubles.
A decade later, at a midterm Republican pseudo-convention on Wednesday night, he sweetened the offer, with a pitchman’s promise of a $5,000 jackpot for every voter.
But polls reflect a wide gap between the president’s pledges and how voters view his performance. He’s therefore taking a huge risk by making the midterm elections all about himself.
“Let us finish the job we began with the greatest two years in the history of the presidency,” he said onstage in Texas.
But there isn’t much ticked off from the updated fix-it list unveiled in Trump’s second inaugural address, in 2025, when he promised to “rapidly bring down costs and prices” and that his new term would be remembered by “the wars we never get into.”
Americans are still angry about the prices of food, housing and healthcare. Gasoline costs are spiking because of a war in Iran he’s claimed multiple times to have won, but that now he says won’t end until after the November 3 midterms.
Hours after Trump made his midterm case in Dallas, average gas prices shot up to $4.28, according to AAA — the highest level since June 2.
If Trump won a mandate on the economy and national security in 2024, he’s now close to squandering it.
This created a bizarre core campaign dynamic — which Trump cemented Wednesday night.
The not particularly trusted out-of-power party is desperate to divert attention from its own liabilities toward the unpopular record of the president. And, amazingly, the deeply disliked incumbent is doing all he can to help them.
“I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot,” Trump said Wednesday night.
Democrats won’t need to be asked twice to tell voters about a president with an approval rating in the 30s who is underwater in polls on almost every major issue.
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In pictures: The first-ever Republican midterm convention
President Donald Trump takes the stage at the first-ever Republican midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Wednesday, September 9. (Tristen Rouse/CNN)
Only this president would dare to hold a two-day “Trumpapalooza” with himself as keynote speaker on both nights.
After Trump on Wednesday blasted Democrats as radical far-left socialists and communists, GOP strategists might prefer he now step back to allow candidates to localize their races and try to disqualify their individual opponents.
But he’s determined to be the issue in every ZIP code.
“I am going to visit,” he said Wednesday, previewing a relentless tour of election hotspots.
Of course, anyone who thought the president might take a back seat must have slept through the last decade.
The 2026 election was always going to be all about Trump. Love him or hate him, almost everything in US and global politics has revolved around him since he descended his golden escalator in summer 2015.
Trump won two presidential elections because — not in spite — of the fact that he made it all about himself. His outsider persona, self-created image as the ultimate winner, and often-coarse manner rewrote the rules of politics. And he listened to economic angst of citizens who felt disenfranchised and disrespected by a globalized economy and leaders they saw as contemptuous elites.
Now that the president seems to care less about such matters, his hunger for the spotlight is making it almost comically easy for Democrats to make the case against the GOP.
“Donald Trump is hoping that a flashy primetime event will make you forget that, well, his trade war is killing costs for families at the grocery store, his war in Iran is killing ranchers and farmers and their way of life, and his war on people — on the working people, the working families of this country — are raising the costs of healthcare and housing,” Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker said in Texas on Wednesday.
These stark comparisons explain why some vulnerable Republicans have stayed away from Trump’s Texas party — although many candidates from swing House races and key Senate contests are there.
It may not make much difference either way.
After a decade of Trump’s dominance over a Republican Party he transformed, there is no non-Trump platform for candidates to run on. And he’s already driven out most MAGA heretics.
But the president could be doing more to help his own side.
Some conservatives are frustrated the billionaire president hasn’t shown more empathy to Americans who view his economic “golden age” as a mirage. It’s not a great look that as he piles up personal wealth in office, he’s mocking the key election issue of affordability.
All presidents lose touch after a few years in the West Wing. And Trump has made that cage more gilded than ever with his taste for gold trinkets and marble legacy projects.
Trump on Wednesday argued he’d slashed crime, stopped illegal immigration, crushed the fentanyl trade, enriched Americans with tax cuts and lowered healthcare costs. There’s some truth in this — although his methods may be driving away more moderate voters. And his claim to have rapidly cut prices is not accurate.
But has he lost his political touch?
His refusal to understand public fury — across party lines — over AI data centers seems like the kind of issue the 2016 version of Trump might intuit spells political danger.
It’s usually a losing strategy when politicians try to talk voters out the reality of their daily lives.
In this sense, his $5000 “dividend” seems more like an attempt to distract than to highlight his own success. (The payment, which Trump promised to every American adult if Republicans retain their House and Senate majorities in November, would probably struggle to make it through Congress. It would also likely add $1 trillion or more to the national debt.)
New CNN polling from the tight Maine and Michigan Senate races — which could decide who runs the chamber next year — makes the point. About two-thirds of likely voters in each state disapprove of Trump’s performance, and voters who are angry or dissatisfied far outnumber those who are satisfied and enthusiastic. The economy and cost of living are easily the top issue in each state. When asked the classic question that can doom incumbents, voters say by a more than 2:1 margin that they are financially worse off than they were two years ago.
Other polling proves that voters unequivocally dislike what Trump sees as his triumphs. They hate his tariffs and his war in Iran, and while he was partly elected over a promise to secure the southern border, he’s driven away many independents with his Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns on undocumented migrants.
But it’s not clear the president really cares about what irks persuadable voters.
His social media feed in recent days — a window into his off-script preoccupations — features a bizarre hinterland of topics that don’t include the price of groceries.
He is fixated on changing the names of lakes and oceans on maps. He claimed, “The Moon is Ours” and unveiled an idea for the dress uniform for his Space Force command that had rather dark historic echoes. His grand building projects similarly speak of a presidency focused on building a personal legacy, rather than addressing the economic problems that plague Americans.
But there’s one reason hogging the limelight that may make some sense.
Trump has historically reached voters other politicians haven’t, and shattered the Democrats’ core coalition among the white working class in Rust Belt states.
Can he conjure up the magic by posing one last time as the scourge of elites, the traditional media, and the social and cultural shifts that his base hates?
It might not save the GOP’s hold on one or both chambers, but perhaps it may mitigate their losses.
The Republican Party made its choice long ago. It rode to power on Trump’s movement and cannot credibly sever itself from him now.
“In actuality I really am running. We don’t really know it, but we are. I mean, we’re running together,” he said Wednesday night.
The only path is still the same: All Trump, all the time.
