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扎卡里·B·沃尔夫分析
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特朗普几乎每次谈及伊朗都会抨击奥巴马和2015年的核协议，该协议正式名称为《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）。
“贝拉克·侯赛因·奥巴马——他所做的就是给了伊朗核协议，让他们有能力自由研制核武器。从根本上说，他选择了伊朗，而不是以色列和其他反对他这么做的国家，”特朗普在3月26日的内阁会议上说道。
他在4月6日的新闻发布会上再次表达了类似观点，称奥巴马偏袒伊朗而非以色列。
“如果我没有站出来终止这项糟糕的奥巴马协议，伊朗核协议就是一条通往核武器的道路——一条庞大的、不受限制的道路，”特朗普说。
特朗普还喜欢提及协议达成时，美国向伊朗运送了一飞机现金——4亿美元现金，其中大部分是瑞士法郎。这笔钱实际上是对几十年前被冻结的伊朗资金的偿还，但它恰逢核协议通过以及包括《华盛顿邮报》记者杰森·雷扎安在内的美国人质获释。
这一飞机现金——以及伊朗在《联合全面行动计划》生效期间获得的解冻资产和石油销售收入——最终可能会被伊朗为结束战争而要求的通行费所超越。这些新资金可能包括对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取的通行费、解冻资产所得或制裁解除后的收入。
《联合全面行动计划》（特朗普所称的奥巴马协议）内容是什么？
《联合全面行动计划》名称晦涩难懂，是一项复杂的外交协议。这项多方面的协议由伊朗、联合国安理会五个常任理事国——美国、中国、俄罗斯、法国、英国——加上德国和欧盟共同签署。
该协议的总体框架获得了国际支持，但在美国国内仍存在争议，内容为伊朗将限制其核野心，限制铀浓缩活动，并允许国际原子能机构（IAEA）的国际核查人员核查其核设施，作为交换，美国将解除对伊朗石油财富的部分制裁，并解冻数十亿美元被冻结的伊朗资产。
内塔尼亚胡对该协议深感担忧，因此采取了前所未有的行动：于2015年在美国国会发表演讲，试图破坏奥巴马的协议。
特朗普最终在2018年的第一任期内退出了该协议。尽管其他国家试图继续执行协议，但伊朗最终违反了协议条款，协议最终破裂，尽管乔·拜登政府和特朗普第二届政府都曾试图重启谈判。
特朗普在达成新核协议的谈判破裂后发动了对伊朗的战争，尽管参与谈判的一位外国外交官称当时已经“接近达成突破”。如今，在开战一个多月后，特朗普再次寻求达成属于自己的伊朗协议。
过去十年间发生了诸多变化
军备控制协会执行董事达里尔·金布尔表示，《联合全面行动计划》所处的时代与现在截然不同。
首先，2018年国际原子能机构和美国情报界一致认为，在《联合全面行动计划》生效期间，伊朗似乎并未寻求核武器能力，总体上遵守了协议中的限制条款，尽管伊朗继续支持恐怖组织，并保留了弹道导弹能力。
特朗普退出《联合全面行动计划》后，伊朗加快了核项目
在以色列的敦促下，特朗普在第一任期内退出了美国在《联合全面行动计划》中的承诺，他认为该协议对美国不利。特朗普退出旧协议一年后，伊朗再次开始公开认真推进其核项目，进一步浓缩铀，并扩建核设施。与此同时，伊朗继续表示将遵守1970年的《不扩散核武器条约》，不会寻求核武器。
“展望未来，任何限制伊朗核能力的新协议都必须与《联合全面行动计划》有所不同，但可能会有一些相似之处，”金布尔本月早些时候告诉我。
他认为，相似之处的关键在于必须坚持国际原子能机构的核查人员，以核实伊朗是否遵守任何潜在的协议。
特朗普的要求则极为严苛。他不仅希望伊朗限制铀浓缩活动，还希望伊朗彻底放弃铀浓缩，并将现有的浓缩铀库存移交给美国。
但伊朗掌握了新的筹码
路透社
由于美国和以色列发动的战争，伊朗如今发现，通过控制霍尔木兹海峡，它拥有了影响世界经济的力量。该海峡通常承担着全球约五分之一的石油和天然气供应，以及全球三分之一的尿素肥料出口运输。
“这场战争让伊朗拥有了比核武器更实用的武器，那就是霍尔木兹海峡，通过封锁它可以切断全球供应，”CNN的法里德·扎卡利亚本周对安德森·库珀说道。
相关视频 https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/video/ac360-fareed-zakaria-iran CNN记者法里德·扎卡利亚就美伊两周停火协议回应 4:30
前中央情报局局长、退役将军戴维·彼得雷乌斯表示，在讨论伊朗的核能力之前，任何结束战争的协议都需要包括重新开放该海峡。
“我认为这是核心问题，”他周四告诉CNN的达纳·巴斯。伊朗的一些要求是不可能实现的，比如将美军从该地区的军事基地撤出，或承认伊朗的铀浓缩权利。其他要求则更具谈判空间。
但霍尔木兹海峡航运这一新问题为伊朗提供了权力和潜在的经济生命线，有点像巴拿马运河，伊朗可以收取通行费。
“如果每艘船只收费200万美元，据报道一些公司一直在支付这笔费用来过境，再乘以每天100艘或更多的船只，这将是一笔相当可观的硬通货，足以让伊朗修复其军事设施遭受的巨大破坏，”彼得雷乌斯说道。
特朗普发动战争前是否已接近达成突破？
美国海军/路透社
特朗普于2月底发动了对伊朗的攻击，因为他认为伊朗在达成新核协议的谈判中并不认真，不过这一结论与一位调解人的说法相矛盾。阿曼外交大臣赛义德·巴德尔·本·哈马德·阿尔·布赛伊迪在袭击开始前做客哥伦比亚广播公司《面向全国》节目时表示，伊朗已经同意做出重大让步。
特朗普发动战争的前一天，阿尔·布赛伊迪表示，伊朗已经同意通过不可逆地将铀浓缩水平降至当前水平以下来放弃其浓缩铀库存，当前的浓缩水平已接近制造核武器所需的水平。
“将实现零积累、零库存，并进行全面核查。我认为这同样是一项重要的成就，”阿尔·布赛伊迪说道。
特朗普团队认为伊朗态度强硬
特朗普的首席谈判代表、特别特使史蒂夫·维特科夫在3月26日的内阁会议上表达了截然不同的看法。
维特科夫表示，伊朗认为自己拥有“不可剥夺的铀浓缩权利”。维特科夫还称，伊朗明确表示“他们不会在外交上放弃我们无法通过军事手段赢得的东西”。
美国可能并未理解谈判桌上的条件
阿曼外交部/法新社/盖蒂图片社
金布尔表示，维特科夫和他的谈判伙伴、特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳可能并未理解伊朗愿意做出的让步的重要性。
“维特科夫太——我用一个强烈的词：无能——而且技术知识匮乏，无法理解谈判桌上的条件的重要性，”金布尔说道。
如今，维特科夫和库什纳将与副总统J·D·万斯一同前往伊斯兰堡参加新的谈判。
因此，美国最终仍必须与伊朗任何可以找到的领导人进行谈判。伊朗政权一直坚持，作为《不扩散核武器条约》的签署国，伊朗在法律上有权为能源项目进行铀浓缩。
作为搁置这一主张的交换，伊朗政权可能会像奥巴马时代一样，坚持解除对伊朗石油的制裁。但如今伊朗还希望正式获得对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权，这意味着该政权可能拥有比以前更多的权力。
Will Trump get a worse Iran deal than Obama? Here’s what to know
2026-04-10T08:00:55.132Z / CNN
Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf
4 hr ago
PUBLISHED Apr 10, 2026, 4:00 AM ET
President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama.
Reuters
A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.
The contrasts are remarkable.
One president chose diplomacy. Barack Obama and a large international coalition negotiated a deal with Iran to shelve its nuclear program for a decade over the objections of an outraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who came to Congress in 2015 to speak out against the deal and the American president.
Another president chose war. Donald Trump, years after tearing Obama’s deal into shreds, and after becoming frustrated with talks for a new nuclear deal, brought Netanyahu into the White House Situation Room, according to a New York Times report. The Israeli prime minister sat across the table from the US president and sold him on a sneak attack against Iran without consulting allies in Europe or the Middle East.
Now the US needs a deal with Iran to end the war
The war has not gone exactly according to Trump’s plan, however. The US and Israel did achieve their goals of compromising Iran’s military, as well as its naval and missile capabilities. But Iran’s nuclear material is still in the country, albeit apparently buried underground, and the Islamic Republic has seized control over the Strait of Hormuz, discovering a new piece of leverage over the world economy.
However the war with Iran ultimately ends — talks will get underway in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday to try to build on a fragile ceasefire — Trump will want to declare that the outcome is better than what his predecessor Obama achieved without going to war.
Obama’s nuclear deal is inside Trump’s head
President Barack Obama speaks during a press conference on the nuclear deal with Iran, in the East Room of the White House, on July 15, 2015.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images/File
Trump rarely talks about Iran without trashing Obama and the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.
“Barack Hussein Obama — what he did, where he gave them the Iran nuclear deal, gave them free will toward a nuclear weapon. Basically, he chose Iran over Israel and others that didn’t want him to do it,” Trump said at a March 26 Cabinet meeting.
He repeated the sentiment that Obama chose Iran over Israel at an April 6 news conference.
“If I didn’t come along and terminate the Obama deal, which was terrible, the Iran nuclear deal was a — a road to a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “A big one, unlimited.”
Trump also likes to talk about the fact that as the deal was finalized, the US dispatched a planeload of cash — $400 million in cash, much of it Swiss francs — to Iran. The money was actually repayment of Iranian funds frozen decades earlier, but it dovetailed with adoption of the nuclear deal and release of Americans in Iranian prison, including the Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian.
That planeload of cash — and the billions Iran got in unfrozen assets and from selling oil while the JCPOA was active — could ultimately be dwarfed by tolls Iran may now demand to end the war. These new funds could include tolls charged to ships for passing through the Strait of Hormuz, money from unfrozen assets or revenue from lifting of sanctions.
What was in the JCPOA (what Trump calls Obama’s deal)?
The JCPOA had a hard-to-remember name and it was a complicated piece of diplomacy. The multifaceted agreement was signed by Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — US, China, Russia, France, the UK — plus Germany and the EU.
The general outline of the JCPOA, which had international support but was controversial in the US when it was reached, was that Iran would limit its nuclear ambitions, cap its uranium enrichment and allow international inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its sites in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions on its oil wealth and unfreezing billions in frozen Iranian assets.
Netanyahu was so alarmed about the deal that, in an unprecedented move, he addressed Congress in 2015 in an attempt to spike Obama’s deal on US soil.
Trump ultimately did withdraw the US from the deal in 2018 during his first term. While other countries tried to continue with the deal, Iran ultimately violated terms and the deal fell apart, although both the Joe Biden and Trump 2.0 administrations tried to restart negotiations.
Trump launched the war on Iran after talks to reach a new nuclear deal fell through, though one foreign diplomat involved with those talks said a breakthrough was “within our reach.” And now, after more than a month of war, Trump is again looking for an Iran deal of his own.
A lot has happened in the past decade
The JCPOA was from a very different time, according to Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.
For starters, the IAEA and the US intelligence community in 2018 agreed that while the JCPOA was in place, Iran did not appear to be seeking nuclear weapons capability, and it was generally abiding by the restrictions in the deal, although it continued to support terror groups and maintained ballistic missile capabilities.
Iran increased nuclear program after Trump abandoned JCPOA
At the urging of Israel, Trump in his first term reneged on the JCPOA for the US, which he did not believe was good for the country. A year after Trump abandoned the old deal, Iran again began obviously developing its nuclear program in earnest, further enriching uranium and building out nuclear sites. At the same time, it continued to say it would abide by the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and not pursue nuclear weapons.
“Looking forward, any new agreement with Iran to constrain its nuclear capacity is going to have to look different from the JCPOA, but there will likely be some similar elements,” Kimball told me earlier this month.
Key among the similarities, in his view, will have to be an insistence on IAEA inspectors to verify that Iran is complying with any potential deal.
Trump has a maximalist view of demands. Rather than limit uranium enrichment, he wants Iran to abandon it and to hand over its existing stockpiles to the US.
But Iran has new leverage
Vessels and boats off the coast of Musandam governorate, overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, in Oman, April 8, 2026.
Reuters
Iran has also now found, as a result of the US and Israeli-launched war, that it has power over the world economy by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries about a fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies and a third of the world’s urea fertilizer exports.
“What this war has done is handed Iran a weapon that is far more usable than nuclear weapons, which is the Strait of Hormuz choking off global supplies,” CNN’s Fareed Zakaria told Anderson Cooper this week.
Related video https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/video/ac360-fareed-zakaria-iran CNN’s Fareed Zakaria reacts to the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran 4:30
Even before addressing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, any deal to the end the war will need to include reopening the strait, according to retired Gen. David Petraeus, the former CIA director.
“That is, I think, the central issue,” he told CNN’s Dana Bash on Thursday. Some Iranian demands will be nonstarters, like withdrawing US forces from military bases in the region or acknowledging Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Others are more negotiable.
But the new issue of Strait of Hormuz traffic offers Iran power and potentially a financial lifeline, a sort of Panama Canal where they are charging tolls.
“If it’s $2 million per vessel, which is reportedly what some companies have been paying to transit, and you multiply that times 100 or more ships a day, that is a very substantial amount of hard currency to enable Iran to repair the extraordinary damage that has been done (to their military),” Petraeus said.
Was a breakthrough at hand before Trump launched the war?
The USS Thomas Hudner fires a Tomahawk land attack missile, in support of the war in Iran, from an undisclosed location on March 21, 2026.
US Navy/Reuters
Trump attacked Iran in late February because he felt it was not serious in negotiations to reach a new nuclear deal, although that conclusion was contradicted by one of the mediators. Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi appeared on CBS’ “Face the Nation” just before the attacks commenced and said Iran had agreed to major concessions.
The day before Trump kicked off the war, Al Busaidi said Iran had agreed to giving up its stockpiles of enriched uranium by irreversibly downgrading their enrichment below current levels, which are close to what would be needed for a nuclear weapon.
“There would be zero accumulation, zero stockpiling, and full verification. That is also equally important achievement, I think,” Al Busaidi said.
Trump’s team saw Iranian intransigence
Trump’s chief negotiator, special envoy Steve Witkoff, had a very different view of those pre-war talks, which he shared at the March 26 Cabinet meeting.
Iran, Witkoff said, believes it has “the inalienable right to enrich.” Witkoff also said the Iranians made clear “they would not give up diplomatically what we could not win militarily.”
The US may not have understood what was on the table
In this handout photo released by the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 26, 2026, US special envoy Steve Witkoff, center, and Jared Kushner, left, hold a meeting with Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi in Geneva, Switzerland.
Omani Foreign Ministry/AFP/Getty Images
Kimball said Witkoff and his negotiating partner, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, may not have understood the significance of the concessions Iran was willing to make.
“Witkoff was too — I’m going to say a strong word: incompetent — and technically ill-informed to understand the significance of what was on the table,” Kimball said.
Now Witkoff and Kushner are joining Vice President JD Vance for new talks in Islamabad.
So the US must still ultimately negotiate with whatever leaders it can find in Iran. The regime has maintained that, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran is within its legal ability to enrich uranium for an energy program.
In exchange for putting that aside, the regime is likely, just as in the Obama era, to insist on the lifting of sanctions on Iran’s oil. But now Iran will also want to formalize its control of the Strait of Hormuz, which means the regime could have more power than it did before.
