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【分析】共和党中期选举惨败 美国政坛未来五大看点

李佳佳
发布/2026年11月5日 16:35

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刚结束的美国中期选举，民主党取得超出预期的成绩，共和党则未能将雄厚资金实力和重新划分选区带来的结构性利好转化为选票。

美国克里斯多夫纽波特大学政治学副教授孙太一向《联合早报》分析，美国总统特朗普以忠诚度筛选候选人，排挤部分较温和的共和党人，加上伊朗政策引发的油价上涨和国内通胀压力，成为共和党失利的重要因素。

值得注意的是，多个传统共和党票仓出现倒戈，尤其是选前连民主党都未投入资源的深红州——密西西比州，参议员选情竟意外陷入胶着。该州数十年来一直是共和党的稳固阵地，如今双方差距却仅在百票以内，反映选民态度正在发生剧烈变化。

民主党取得国会优势后，除了推动医疗、生活成本等民生议题，也将寻求加强对特朗普政府的制衡。不过，参议院的阻挠议事规则意味着，民主党即使掌握简单多数，仍难以单方面推动大部分立法。

败选之后，特朗普会否调整路线？孙太一指出，白宫内部已出现对移民执法和外交政策的不同意见。对特朗普而言，接下来两年或许更重要的是巩固个人政治遗产，不排除他在部分议题上与民主党寻求合作。

2028年总统大选前，共和党能否在激活基本盘与争取中间选民之间取得平衡；民主党又能否让新生代候选人脱颖而出，都将影响美国两党的未来走向。

点击视频，听孙太一分析共和党败选背后的深层原因，以及特朗普和两党将如何迎接两年后的总统大选。

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Republicans turn on Hegseth over Iran war as Democratic majority grows

Updated 6:54 AM EST, Thu November 5, 2026

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

Black candidates for governor rack up historic victories

2:26 • Source: CNN

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Black candidates for governor rack up historic victories

2:26

Here’s the latest

• Blaming the war:President Donald Trump said it was “largely true” the Iran war contributed to the GOP shellacking, echoing Vice President JD Vance. Many Republican lawmakers and allies are moving swiftly to pin blame on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and the House could vote as soon as next week to impeach the Pentagon’s chief.

• New oversight:Senate Democrats have issued document preservation letters ahead of expected investigations into the Trump administration. And the Department of Homeland Security is bracing for an onslaught of congressional oversight efforts, according to current and former officials.

• What we’re tracking:CNN projects that Democrats will win at least 245 House seats. In the Senate, two contests have not yet been called: CNN Sightline rates the Mississippi race as neutral and Alaska as favoring the Democrat.

The Mississippi Senate race is a nail-biter. Here’s why it’s taking so long to call

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By Tierney Sneed and Lex Harvey

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Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, left and Scott Colom, right

House or Representatives/Scott Colom campaign

Votes are still being tallied in Mississippi, where the Senate contest between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith has turned into the nail-biter of the midterms.

Colom was leading by just over 1,000 votes as of midnight, with about 96% of the ballots in. While the race is still too close to call, it’s another sign of the midterms’ seismic shift toward Democrats, even in deep-red territory.

The race is expected to come down to the roughly 15,000 provisional ballots — known as affidavit ballots. Voter advocates and legal observers expect it could take until next week, at the earliest, before we know how many of those ballots will go into the final count.

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Data as of Nov. 5, 2026, at 5:30 a.m. ET

CNN

Track the latest election results here.

One reason a person in Mississippi would have to vote provisionally is a lack of photo ID. Those voters will see their ballots counted if they provide the required ID in five business days – or by November 10.

Another reason a voter may have to submit an affidavit ballots is they are not in the pollbook, something that could happen if the voter was tagged as inactive.

Voter advocates believe this could be a large portion of affidavit ballots because of new protocols the state to clean its voter rolls, which resulted in some voters being incorrectly tagged as inactive.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

Democrat holds narrow lead in nail-biting Mississippi Senate race

2:14 • Source: CNN

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Democrat holds narrow lead in nail-biting Mississippi Senate race

2:14

A final potential category of disputed ballots could be affidavit ballots cast by people who submitted registration forms, but were not registered because of incomplete forms.

State law requires that clerks try to reach out to the registrant missing that information to complete their registrations, but officials’ willingness to do so varies county by county, Merchant said.

Keisha Lance Bottoms will be governor where her ancestors were enslaved

By CNN staff

Georgia Governor-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms honored her ancestors, who were enslaved in the state over 160 years ago, in her victory speech after being elected the first Black female governor in US history.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

Keisha Lance Bottoms will be governor where her ancestors were enslaved

Georgia governor-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms honored her ancestors who were enslaved in the state over 160 years ago during her victory speech after being elected the first Black female governor in US history.

2:22 • Source: CNN

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Keisha Lance Bottoms will be governor where her …

2:22

Top Iranian official mocks Vance after VP blames Iran war for midterm rout

By Nadeen Ebrahim and Leila Gharagozlou

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Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf gives a press conference at Imam Hassan al-Mujtaba Mosque in Iraq’s central holy shrine city of Karbala on August 20.

Karar Jabbar/AFP/Getty Images

A senior Iranian negotiator mocked JD Vance on Thursday after the US Vice President blamed Republican midterm losses on the war in Iran.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said on Thursday that Vance showed “losing-gambler energy,” and that he “can’t walk away from the table.”

“Boss is prepping the next war phase while America teeters on an Israel-First cliff. Skip the TED talk. Why not say this to your boss?” Ghalibaf wrote on X.

Trump has admitted that the war in Iran was partly to blame for the Republicans’ losses. Vance was more explicit, saying in a lengthy X post Wednesday that “the reason we lost is the war.”

Ghalibaf has been the main negotiator in US-Iran talks to end the war.

“Woke is so back”: The internet is buzzing with memes after blue wave

By CNN staff

Social media is abuzz with a “Woke 3.0” trend after Democrats took the House and Senate. CNN’s Aleena Fayaz reports and reflects.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

‘Woke is so back’: the internet buzzes with memes after blue wave

Social media is abuzz with a “Woke 3.0” trend after Democrats took the House and Senate in the midterms. CNN’s Aleena Fayaz reflects on what preceded it.

2:17 • Source: CNN

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‘Woke is so back’: the internet buzzes with …

2:17

The House is called — but dozens of races aren’t. Here are the ones we’re watching

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By Curt Merrill and Hanna Park

Democrats have already clinched the House, according to CNN projections, but with dozens of races still uncalled, the final size of their majority is an open question — and a handful of contests are worth watching closely as the counting grinds on.

• California is worth watching for how much counting remains. Its seven districts in CNN’s tracker have an estimated 41% to 72% of votes reported. Democrats have already notched projected pickups there under the state’s redrawn 2025 map — including Marni von Wilpert’s flip of the 48th and Randy Villegas’ ouster of GOP Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd (CNN also projects that, in a separate intraparty upset, Democratic socialist Angela Gonzales-Torres will unseat Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez in the 34th) — but more seats remain outstanding, and Democratic wins in contests against Republicans could pad the Democratic margin.
• One closely watched contest is in Colorado. Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert trails Democratic challenger Eileen Laubacher by fewer than 2 percentage points in the 4th District — a seat President Donald Trump carried by 18 points in 2024. An estimated 93% of votes have been reported. If that lead holds, it would be another sign of how far the political environment shifted against the GOP, with even a reliably Republican seat changing hands.
• Florida’s House seats are close. Several are separated by about a percentage point or less with an estimated 99% of votes reported, including the races involving GOP Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar (27th) and Mario Diaz-Balart (26th), Anna Paulina Luna (13th), and Democrat Darren Soto (9th) — a cluster of narrow leads for both parties.
• A few other races still hanging:In North Carolina, longtime GOP Rep. Virginia Foxx — who has held her seat since 2005 — is in a contest too close to call (Democrat Chuck Hubbard narrowly leads), part of what one Republican operative told CNN was a “blue tsunami from Manteo to Murphy.” In Maine’s 2nd District, former Gov. Paul LePage holds a roughly 1-percentage-point edge. And across the map, the dozens of uncalled races will determine the final size of Democrats’ majority.

CNN’s Shikha Subramaniam contributed to this report.

China assessing midterm rout while focused on possible Xi-Trump-Putin summit

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Analysis by Sylvie Zhuang

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Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Getty Images/AP

China kept a watchful eye as President Donald Trump received a drubbing in the midterms.

Publicly, Beijing remains cautious and tight-lipped as any conclusion would be too soon to draw.

The only official response has been from China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, who was quick to call the midterms “an internal matter for the United States.” She reiterated that China is ready to work with the US to build a constructive and stable bilateral relationship, a consensus reached by Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump during their May summit.

Beijing understands that even though the Democrats have taken back the both chambers of Congress, a lame duck Trump is still powerful when it comes to trade and foreign policy.

A fragile trade truce between the world’s two biggest economies will expire in January – and some analysts say that a Trump administration no longer concerned about Chinese countermeasures’ impact on elections may become more willing to play hard ball during future negotiations.

With the Republicans’ resounding defeat widely viewed as a rebuke to Trump, some GOP members of Congress may also be less fearful of crossing him and taking a tougher stance on China if Trump continues to laud Xi and take a perceived soft approach to Beijing.

Beijing is also preparing to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in less than two weeks in its high-tech hub Shenzhen, where Xi is ready to showcase a stronger China and welcome a slew of leaders.

There, Xi is expected to meet Trump for the third time this year – and the two men may hold a historic meeting with Russian President Vladmir Putin on the sidelines.

Last month, Trump said he was open to this idea. He told reporters: “We would have it to talk about nuclear weapons and denuclearization,” adding, “I’m sure we’d talk about other things like trade too.”

In Alaska, a Senate seat hangs on late ballots and a possible ranked-choice count

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By Jeremy Herb and Hanna Park

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Voters come and go from the American Legion Post 35 to cast their ballots on Election Day, Tuesday, in Wasilla, Alaska.

Lindsey Wasson/AP

The contest between Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola remains unresolved, and a winner may not be known for weeks – a delay election officials stress is routine for Alaska.

Peltola led Sullivan by just over 600 votes by the end of Wednesday, with an estimated 75% of the vote counted. The race remained uncalled, though CNN Sightline favored Peltola, whose victory would give Democrats another pickup amid their sweeping midterm gains.

Geography helps explain the wait. The state is vast, and some ballots from far-flung communities must be flown in to be counted. Because of that remoteness, Alaska allows absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive within 10 days after the election if mailed from within the US, or 15 days if mailed from overseas.

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Data as of Nov. 5, 2026, at 5:30 a.m. ET

CNN

Ranked-choice voting could add another step. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. Those ballots transfer to each voter’s next-ranked candidate still in the race. The process continues until a candidate has a majority of the votes. Alaska waits until the 15-day ballot-receipt deadline has passed before conducting that tabulation.

Alaska’s Senate race has already been overshadowed by controversy over how a second Dan Sullivan ended up on the ballot, which has sparked lawsuits, criminal investigations and threats to block certification of the election if the incumbent is defeated.

Only a trickle of votes had come in for Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, by the end of Wednesday.

All eyes on Mississippi and Alaska as American awaits final Senate results

By Taylor Romine

As both parties digest election results, Democrats are already moving to reshape Washington’s agenda by outlining investigations and promising action on affordability, while Republicans confront divisions over the Iran war and responsibility for their losses.

Results continue to trickle in, with several Democrats flipping House seats across the country and a flip for the GOP last night.

But there are no final results yet in Mississippi’s Senate race, which could come down to roughly 15,000 provisional ballots pending verification, according to Democrat Scott Colom’s campaign.

In Alaska, a result in the controversial contest between Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola may not be known for weeks – a delay election officials stress is routine for Alaska.

Here’s what else is going on in the elections space:

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces mounting pressure as Republican lawmakers and allies are moving to blame him for the party’s historic losses, and the House could vote as soon as next week to impeach him.
• The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has issued letters asking for preservation of documents ahead of expected investigations into the Trump administration’s actions, a Democratic Senate aide told CNN. Describing it as a “standard committee process,” the aide said letters were sent to the Trump administration, to Elon Musk regarding the slowdown of Starshield in Ukraine, and to ports, banks and private entities involved in the Russia diesel deal.
• Rep. Robert Garcia, the incoming House Oversight chairman, said Trump investigations won’t distract Democrats from lowering costs, naming four targets: the Trump family’s businesses, immigration enforcement, corporate donations to the White House ballroom and the Epstein files.
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was critical of many Republican races, telling CNN that voters were “disappointed in the productivity” of Congress and playing the blame game on gas prices.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

DeSantis calls midterm losses close to “extinction-level event” for Republicans

3:28 • Source: CNN

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DeSantis calls midterm losses close to “extinction-level event” for Republicans

3:28

• Across the party aisle, Democratic Sen.-elect Annie Andrews of South Carolina also said the Republican party is “fractured,” with the GOP primary between Rep. Ralph Norman and Sen. Darline Graham being a symbol of that rift.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

‘People are tired’: Sen.-elect Annie Andrews joins CNN after big win

5:49 • Source: CNN

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‘People are tired’: Sen.-elect Annie Andrews joins CNN after big win

5:49

• New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani attributed Democrats win to focusing on working-class Americans and the issues that matter most to them, including cutting costs and building trust with voters.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

Mamdani speaks with CNN about the Democratic agenda

3:31 • Source: CNN

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Mamdani speaks with CNN about the Democratic agenda

3:31

• Maryland’s Wes Moore used to hold the title of the only Black governor in the US, but soon he will be joined by four others. He emphasized to CNN the historic election of Georgia’s Keisha Lance Bottoms, who is the first Black woman to hold the office.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

‘This is a pretty remarkable time,’ Maryland Gov. Wes Moore says on historic governor elections

1:50 • Source: CNN

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‘This is a pretty remarkable time,’ Maryland Gov. Wes Moore says on historic governor elections

1:50

• Looking ahead, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich put doubt on Vice President JD Vance leading the party as the presidential nominee in 2028, saying the GOP loss in the midterms, along with several strategies Vance has taken, has made “a good bit of the luster has come off the bloom.”

CNN’s Aditi Sangal, Tori B. Powell, Elise Hammond, Katherine Koretski, Arpita Dasika and Aaron Blake contributed to this report.

Is the MAGA/Trump era over?

By CNN staff

CNN’s Jake Tapper explores whether the MAGA/Trump era is coming to a close after the Democrats won control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/05/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress

Is the MAGA/Trump era over?

After the Democrats won control of the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, CNN’s Jake Tapper explores whether the MAGA/Trump era is coming to a close.

3:10 • Source: CNN

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Is the MAGA/Trump era over?

3:10

Republicans turn on Trump after devastating midterm losses hand Democrats control of Congress

Donor Dan Eberhart called it ‘a Trump loss’ as Democrats flipped seven Senate seats and 27 House seats on Election Night

By Alex Miller , Elizabeth Elkind Fox News

Published November 5, 2026 5:00am EST

Trump concedes GOP couldn’t ‘transfer the love’ in midterm elections

President Donald Trump weighs in on Republicans’ midterm losses, the war with Iran and working with a Democratic-controlled Congress.

NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!

Seismic political change is coming to Washington, D.C., and as Republicans sift through the wreckage that was Election Night, fingers are pointing in several directions over who’s to blame.

The blue tsunami Tuesday tore the GOP’s coalition asunder, flipping the balance of power in both chambers heading into the final two years of the Trump administration. And as Republicans search for where things went awry, GOP operatives and insiders told Fox News Digital that it starts at the top with President Donald Trump.

“Look, first and foremost, this is a Trump loss,” Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling chief executive officer and prominent Republican donor, told Fox News Digital. “He wanted to be — he wanted people to consider him on the ballot. And unfortunately, as a Republican, that’s what we got.”

LIZ PEEK: THERE MAY BE A SILVER LINING IN TRUMP’S BRUTAL MIDTERM DEFEAT

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President Donald Trump listens at a campaign rally at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Fla., on Oct. 30, 2026.(Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

In the Senate, Democrats scored seven pickups on Election Night, with outstanding races in Alaska and Mississippi still waiting to be called. And in the House, Democrats roared back into power with 27 pickups and with several races still outstanding.

The Iran war, ignoring the economic hurt squeezing voters, attacking sitting Republicans and more are on the list of grievances from Republicans reeling in the days after.

The Senate map, in particular, was at one point favorable for Republicans and viewed as an uphill battle for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Democrats to put a dent in the GOP’s thin, 53-seat majority.

But Trump’s decision to go on a “primary revenge tour and antagonizing senators,” a GOP aide told Fox News Digital, among several other issues, opened up the field for Democrats to pounce.

Indeed, Trump’s handpicked candidates were pummeled in races that were once safe bets for Republicans.

DEM FLIPS KEY SENATE SEAT IN BATTLEGROUND NORTH CAROLINA AS COOPER DEFEATS TRUMP ALLY

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His backing of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., and fight with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., last year that ultimately led to his retirement and created an opening for Democrats in the Tar Heel State, proved fatal for the GOP, coupled with stunning losses in Maine, Kansas, Ohio and Iowa, kneecapped any chances Republicans had of keeping power in the upper chamber.

“Trump ignored affordability completely,” another Republican aide told Fox News Digital. “Ousted good members a la Cornyn, Tillis who knew how to win tough races, and poisoned the base’s opinion of our majority with his SAVE Act/filibuster bulls—.”

“We had a great map, and he hijacked [it],” they continued.

In the House, where Democrats are on pace to potentially win upward of 250 seats, Fox News Power Rankings projected that Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran were significant drivers for voting blocs leaving the GOP.

TRUMP’S GAMBLE ON KEN PAXTON BACKFIRES AS DEMOCRAT PULLS OFF HISTORIC TEXAS SENATE UPSET

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The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., is seen on Nov. 3, 2026.(Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

One House Republican complained that GOP leaders were too focused on “bluster” rather than “doing the job,” though they did not mention Trump by name.

“All the name changes were so unnecessary — Gulf of America, Lake of America, Department of War,” the GOP lawmaker said.

A second House Republican rattled off a lengthy list of shortcomings, including the quality and character of “certain candidates,” Trump’s immigration enforcement, tariffs, general affordability issues, historic midterm headwinds, and “departure from traditional conservatism in favor of populism.”

Meanwhile, people in Trump’s orbit blamed the candidates themselves.

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Trump outside advisor Alex Bruesewitz posted on X that “most Republican candidates this cycle were uninspiring, lazy, and thoroughly ineffective communicators.”

“I’m not all that surprised by some of these outcomes,” he said.

Meanwhile, some are expecting a massive shift in Trump’s base of support in Congress as he heads toward a lame duck likely punctuated by investigations and stalled agendas.

“I think Trump being a lame duck starts today,” Eberhart said. “You know, if I’m up in the [2028] cycle, I’m waking up today, I’m against the arch. I’m against the ballroom. I want space from Trump.”

Alex Miller is a writer for Fox News Digital covering the U.S. Senate.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407885180112

分析指厄尔尼诺或推高美国明年通胀率

发布/2026年11月5日 17:15

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研究指出，当厄尔尼诺现象出现，美国北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，大西洋飓风次数也会减少。图为10月27日美国加州圣迭戈沿岸民宅，当地筑起一道长沙堤，抵御因厄尔尼诺而高涨的海水水位。 （路透社）

（旧金山综合电）美国旧金山联邦储备银行发布的研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象为美国整体经济前景增添了不确定性，可能会在明年推高美国物价和带动就业。

分析发现，历来厄尔尼诺出现时，往往会推高核心服务与食品的价格。旧金山联储的经济师日前在一份报告中说，当前厄尔尼诺可能导致今年4月至7月美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格水平，比常态高出约0.3个百分点。

如果厄尔尼诺在明年过渡为拉尼娜现象（La Nina），2027年个人消费支出通胀率（PCE inflation）可能因此额外上升一个百分点。拉尼娜与厄尔尼诺产生相反的影响，拉尼娜现象出现时，太平洋信风增强，而且太平洋沿岸海域的水温会降低。

研究报告指出，厄尔尼诺周期初期，物价上涨会较快影响消费者的钱包，但对劳动力市场的影响则需要更长时间才会显现。

在美国，厄尔尼诺带来的影响，包括会使北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，以及减少大西洋飓风次数。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的数据显示，目前的厄尔尼诺是属于极强的级别。

研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象出现的第一年，美国非农业就业人数通常不会受到明显影响，就业人数将在第二年显著增加。当气候改善，冬季偏暖会降低供暖需求，同时提高建筑业和农业的生产效率。

新西兰数十头领航鲸搁浅 少数获救重返大海

2026年11月5日 16:42

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数十头领航鲸搁浅后，救援人员至今成功引导两头领航鲸重返海中。 （法新社）

新西兰自然保护部星期四（11月5日）说，数十头领航鲸被发现搁浅在新西兰北岛一处海滩上，救援人员正尝试让其中几头幸存的鲸鱼重新游回海中。

自然保护部说，至少20头领航鲸搁浅在北岛最南端帕利斯尔角（Cape Palliser）附近的恩加维海岸（Ngawi coast）。

该部门正同当地毛利部族和专门救援搁浅鲸鱼的组织“约拿计划”（Project Jonah）的人员合作，至今已成功引导两头领航鲸重返海中。

据新西兰广播电台引述当地居民的话报道，前一夜有多达50头鲸鱼搁浅在沿岸。

大多数鲸鱼伤重不治，志愿者则用水桶和毛巾为幸存的鲸鱼补水，尽力维持它们的生命。

新西兰和澳大利亚周围的深海中栖息着大量领航鲸，因此鲸鱼搁浅事件在这两个岛国并不罕见，但鲸鱼搁浅的原因至今不明。

美国国会翻盘 台湾学者吁政府及早经营跨党派关系

发布/2026年11月5日 17:31

• 美国中期选举民主党赢得参众两院控制权，参议院至少获54席，众议院至少237席，并翻转至少七个参院席位。 – 台湾前驻美代表高硕泰指出，选后参众两院台湾连线各有约八人和近30人离任，呼吁台方尽早盘点并争取新支持者。 – 学者李淳判断，民主党胜选不会逆转美国关税与科技政策，对华科技管制力度不减，但国会参与审查将大幅提升。 – 智库执行长董立文认为，分立政府未削弱跨党派挺台共识，国会将加强对白宫对华谈判、关税及军售的监督。

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台湾国策研究院星期四（11月5日）举行座谈会，探讨美国期中选后局势与对台影响。图为第一场次座谈，台上左起为台湾中央研究院政治学研究所特聘研究员兼所长吴重礼、中华经济研究院经济法制研究中心主任李淳、主持人国策院执行长王宏仁、国策研究院资深顾问高硕泰及中研院政治所助研究员傅泽民。 （缪宗翰摄）

美国国会席次翻转后，台湾学者认为，民主党掌控两院将加强对特朗普政府的监督，美国挺台方向未必改变，但台湾须经营新一届国会关系，并准备应对贸易协议审查、关税和科技管制变化；分立政府也可能使美国总统特朗普在外交和安全领域采取更强势行动。

美国星期二（11月3日）举行中期选举，民主党赢得众议院和参议院控制权。参议院至少54席归民主党阵营、44席由共和党取得；众议院民主党已确保过半，至少赢得237席，共和党139席。民主党翻转至少七个参院席位，众院净增逾20席。

州长选举方面，民主党翻转阿拉斯加、乔治亚、爱荷华、内华达、俄亥俄和得州六州，预计将以29比20掌握州长职位多数；堪萨斯州长选举仍未决。

台湾国策研究院星期四（11月5日）在台北举行座谈会，邀请学者分析这次选举对美国国会外交、经贸科技政策及台海安全等影响。

国策研究院资深顾问高硕泰在会中分析，这次大选后，民主党将运用监督、听证、任​​命和预算等权力牵制白宫。

他形容这场选举是“一股蓝色的洋流变成了蓝色的海啸”，并说特朗普虽称接受结果，却“没有认输”，因为“他（特朗普）的字典里面没有‘妥协’这两个字”。高硕泰认为，特朗普在国内受制后，可能转而在外交和国安政策上展现强势，以证明自己并非“跛鸭”。

高硕泰曾于2016年6月至2020年7月担任台湾驻美国代表。他指出，台湾长年发展与美国国会议员关系，历来参众两院都有约三分之一的议员参与台湾连线。但这次大选后，参院台湾连线30人中有八人将离任，众院也有近30人离开，台湾应尽早盘点并争取新支持者。

另外，高硕泰也提醒，近年美国国会议员访台人数和次数下滑，部分议员因北京在时任众院议长佩洛西访台后举行军演，以及特朗普对台言论、对北京示好而却步。

他呼吁台湾政府重新锁定邀访对象、把握州政府交流机会，并强调台美关系“不可断、不能断、也不会断”，台湾须冷静务实，避免一厢情愿。

曾任台湾驻欧盟兼驻比利时代表的中华经济研究院经济法制研究中心主任李淳则判断，民主党胜选不会使美国关税和科技政策“发生逆转”，但国会参与将大幅提升。

他说，民主党可能挑战特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥及其他伙伴加征关税的做法；对华战略竞争则有跨党派共识，特别是对华科技管制“力道与强度不会下降”，美国国会将推动更制度化、可检验的管制依据。

李淳进一步指出，美国推动再工业化的目标不变，政策工具可能由限制转向更多补贴和奖励。台美贸易协议未必因此被推翻，但国会可能要求更大审查空间，并修法限制总统单方面加征关税。台湾对美经贸、投资和科技合作料将延续，但须因应政策工具与适用对象变化。

对于美国中期选举对台海安全的影响，台湾国安局外围智库亚太和平研究基金会执行长董立文认为，关键仍在中美战略竞争的结构性限制，因此影响有限。

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台湾国策研究院11月5日举行座谈会，探讨美国期中选后局势与对台影响。图片左起为座谈会第二场次主持人、国策院副院长郭育仁，亚太和平研究基金会执行长董立文，台湾师范大学东亚学系教授范世平。（缪宗翰摄）

董立文以2018年和2022年美国中期选举为例说，分立政府虽造成内政僵局，却未削弱国会对华强硬共识及跨党派挺台力量。

他因此判断，这次选后美国国会将加强监督白宫对华谈判、关税和军售；即使白宫寻求有限缓和，台湾作为对华交易筹码的空间也越来越小。

把败选矛头指向白宫 共和党人促特朗普改弦易辙

发布/2026年11月5日 18:04

• 共和党在中期选举失去国会两院控制权后，党内将败选矛头指向特朗普政府，呼吁他改组白宫人事并放弃部分政策。
• 副总统万斯把败选归咎于伊朗战争等因素，似有意与特朗普拉开距离；一些共和党人担心其政策主张已成政治包袱。
• 民调显示约七成选民希望国会加强制衡总统，三分之二受访者认为特朗普的政策导致美国经济恶化。
• 共和党金主撒钱策略未奏效，马斯克为共和党捐款近5亿美元，但获超2亿美元支持的帕克斯顿仍败给民主党对手。

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美国民主党重夺国会参众两院控制权后，加利福尼亚州圣迭戈的社区组织与选民星期三（11月4日）举行集会，为自己手中的选票所发挥的力量而欢庆。 （路透社）

（华盛顿综合电）美国共和党在中期选举中痛失国会两院控制权后，党内随即掀起互相指责的浪潮，而矛头主要指向特朗普政府。总统特朗普的盟友和政治策略师纷纷呼吁他改组白宫人事并重整纪律，同时放弃伊朗战争和关税等被认为导致了此次惨败的政策。

资深共和党策略师费赫里形容，本届中期选举结果对特朗普来说是巨大的灾难。费赫里告诉路透社：“他需要彻底整顿白宫。从现在开始的每一天，他会越来越像跛脚鸭。”

一些党内元老也公开抨击共和党。得克萨斯州参议员科宁在《华尔街日报》发表评论，批评共和党犯下一连串原本可避免的政治错误，包括支持丑闻缠身的帕克斯顿在初选中挑战他，并最终代表共和党竞选得州参议员。

2012年的共和党总统候选人罗姆尼也炮轰共和党候选人盲目拥护特朗普的政策主张，包括反复无常的关税措施、冲动挑起的伊朗战争等。

白宫官员透露，白宫目前士气低落到了极点，高层正为人员离职、内阁可能改组，以及民主党将展开的一系列调查做准备。

一些共和党人担心，特朗普的政策主张已成为他们的政治包袱，尤其是对那些着眼于2028年总统选举的潜在继任者而言。

美国副总统万斯被视为最有希望接替特朗普的人选。他周三（11月4日）在社交媒体上发文，把共和党败选归咎于伊朗战争、生活费危机，以及美国和以色列的关系，似乎有意与特朗普拉开距离。

共和党策略师和党内官员指出，如果共和党人认定特朗普长期以来对共和党选民的影响力正在减弱，这种与特朗普划清界线的情况可能会越来越常见。

面对选民反弹和党内指责，特朗普周三在选后首次公开露面时，却再次大谈首都的各项翻修工程。一名共和党政治顾问说：“如果特朗普在接下来两年里继续谈论这些破事，下次选举我们将再次惨败。”

民调：七成选民希望国会加强制衡特朗普

美联社对全美50州选民的民调结果显示，多数选民对已处于美国政治中心十多年的特朗普感到厌倦和恼火。约七成受访者希望，国会能加强制衡总统。

特朗普未能兑现主要竞选承诺，尤其是遏制通胀，这显然拖累了共和党的选情。三分之二的受访选民认为，特朗普的政策反而导致美国经济恶化，这些选民约有八成投选了民主党候选人。

超过半数的选民说，政府腐败也对他们的投票决定起到关键作用。选民普遍认为，特朗普更关心自己的财富和奢华生活而非人民的需求。

此外，特朗普偏重忠诚，支持品格或经验受质疑的候选人，也导致共和党在本应稳操胜券的红州失利。

不过，选民虽寄望民主党能带来改变，但对民主党的看法也好不了多少。约半数选民对民主党持有好感，略高于共和党的四成。

共和党金主撒钱策略未奏效

另一方面，民主党横扫参众两院，凸显共和党金主的撒钱策略完全失效。在民主党赢下的多场选举中，保守派团体投入的外部资金远超自由派团体。

选举预测网站Race to the White House创办人菲利普斯在X平台发文指出：“这可能是美国政治史上，金钱政治遭遇的最大挫败。”

据竞选资金追踪机构OpenSecrets统计，亿万富翁马斯克此次为共和党竞选活动捐款近5亿美元（约6亿3800万新元），成为自2010年以来在单个联邦选举周期中捐款最多的个人。其中，超过2亿美元用于支持帕克斯顿，但他还是败给了民主党对手塔拉里科。

分析指厄尔尼诺或推高美国明年通胀率

发布/2026年11月5日 17:15

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研究指出，当厄尔尼诺现象出现，美国北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，大西洋飓风次数也会减少。图为10月27日美国加州圣迭戈沿岸民宅，当地筑起一道长沙堤，抵御因厄尔尼诺而高涨的海水水位。 （路透社）

（旧金山综合电）美国旧金山联邦储备银行发布的研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象为美国整体经济前景增添了不确定性，可能会在明年推高美国物价和带动就业。

分析发现，历来厄尔尼诺出现时，往往会推高核心服务与食品的价格。旧金山联储的经济师日前在一份报告中说，当前厄尔尼诺可能导致今年4月至7月美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格水平，比常态高出约0.3个百分点。

如果厄尔尼诺在明年过渡为拉尼娜现象（La Nina），2027年个人消费支出通胀率（PCE inflation）可能因此额外上升一个百分点。拉尼娜与厄尔尼诺产生相反的影响，拉尼娜现象出现时，太平洋信风增强，而且太平洋沿岸海域的水温会降低。

研究报告指出，厄尔尼诺周期初期，物价上涨会较快影响消费者的钱包，但对劳动力市场的影响则需要更长时间才会显现。

在美国，厄尔尼诺带来的影响，包括会使北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，以及减少大西洋飓风次数。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的数据显示，目前的厄尔尼诺是属于极强的级别。

研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象出现的第一年，美国非农业就业人数通常不会受到明显影响，就业人数将在第二年显著增加。当气候改善，冬季偏暖会降低供暖需求，同时提高建筑业和农业的生产效率。

共和党中期选举失利 各国或更有底气抗衡特朗普贸易政策

发布/2026年11月5日 19:21

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分析认为，中国可能趁美国共和党在中期选举遭遇惨败、总统特朗普（图）政治地位削弱之际，设法增强自身在对美贸易谈判中的筹码。 （彭博社）

（华盛顿/北京综合电）美国共和党因生活成本高涨等问题引发选民不满，在中期选举遭遇惨败。分析认为，这可能让各国更有底气抵制美国总统特朗普的强硬贸易政策。

美国民主党星期二（11月3日）夺得国会参众两院控制权。政治分析员和经济师认为，这可能让各国更有理由放缓兑现此前为避免美国加征关税而作出的投资承诺，也可能使中国在与美国的贸易谈判中占据更有利的地位。

中美达成的脆弱贸易休战将在明年1月到期。分析指出，北京可能趁特朗普政治地位削弱之际，设法增强自身的谈判筹码。

澳大利亚科琳娜经济咨询公司经济师伊斯莱克说：“（中国国家主席）习近平会意识到，这次选举结果已大大削弱特朗普的权威，无疑也会考虑如何利用这一点”。

不过，特朗普在国内面临的政治困境，对北京未必完全是好消息。

法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济师埃雷罗说，民主党不大可能任由特朗普自行决定与北京达成什么协议。她认为，民主党控制的国会更可能支持收紧技术出口管制，并加强审查人工智能和半导体领域的供应链，限制特朗普在这些高增长领域向中国让步的空间。

美国在亚洲的两个主要盟友日本和韩国，去年分别与特朗普政府达成协议，承诺向美国投资5500亿美元（约7018亿新元）和3500亿美元（约4467亿新元）。

韩国西江大学经济学教授许允指出，民主党似乎认为，这些投资承诺是美国强加给盟友的。随着共和党在中期选举失利，有关国家可能觉得，履行承诺的压力已减轻。

不过，也有学者警告，特朗普在国内受到批评，反而可能在海外进一步向盟友施压，要求它们兑现投资承诺，以证明自己的贸易政策奏效。

日本上智大学研究美国政治的前嶋和弘教授说：“关税问题仍未结束。如果日本反应迟缓，要求进一步加征关税的呼声可能再起”。

对于仍在与美国磋商贸易协议的印度，中期选举结果也可能促使新德里采取观望态度，争取更有利的谈判条件。

印度与美国今年2月达成框架协议，将美国对大部分印度商品征收的惩罚性关税，从50％降至18％。

印度贸易部长本月初说，印美贸易协议第一阶段的文本起草已进入最后阶段，但重申只有在印度能够取得相对于其他出口竞争国的优势时，才会推进协议。

First of 3 U.S. executions set for Thursday carried out in Indiana

November 5, 2026 / 4:45 AM EST / CBS/AP

An Indiana man who admitted killing his girlfriend’s two children was executed early Thursday in the first of three lethal injections scheduled for the same day in the U.S.

Jeffrey Weisheit killed the children, ages 8 and 5, by setting fire to his girlfriend’s house in the Evansville area in 2010.

Weisheit died at the Indiana State Prison in Michigan City. The lethal injection started just after midnight and he was pronounced dead at 12:45 a.m., according to Noelle Russell, Indiana Department of Correction chief communications officer.

She said Weisheit’s final meal was barbecue ribs and he had no final words.

Florida and Alabama were also set to carry out executions Thursday, which would mark the second time this year that three people in the U.S. would be put to death on the same day.

Alabama, Tennessee and Oklahoma conducted executions on Aug. 13.

It would be Florida’s 19th execution this year under Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, matching a record set by the state in 2025, but was the first this year in Indiana.

The death penalty has faced renewed scrutiny following the September failed execution of Christa Pike in Tennessee, although courts have rejected efforts to halt other executions since she survived two lethal doses of pentobarbital.

Pike said in a statement dictated to her lawyers and released a month after the botched execution that she’s been in pain every moment since she woke up confused in a hospital. “I had not contemplated life beyond that night,” she said.

Lawyers wanted Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Braun to allow Weisheit, 50, to undergo brain scans in an effort to reinforce their argument that he has a history of head injuries and mental health problems. Braun declined, and he also turned down a request to reduce the sentence to life in prison.

Weisheit’s latest objection centered on the state’s planned use of lethal drugs purchased from a pharmacy that is facing a disciplinary hearing next week at the Indiana Pharmacy Board. The Indiana Department of Correction said it’s confident “in our ability to humanely carry out” the execution.

Following the execution, Braun issued a brief statement noting Weisheit’s case was reviewed many times by state and federal courts.

“These reviews have never resulted in an overturned sentence,” he said. “Today, Weisheit’s sentence has been carried out as ordered by the court.”

Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita said that the execution provided “long-awaited justice for Alyssa Lynch and her brother Caleb, two innocent children whose lives were stolen in an act of unspeakable cruelty.”

The execution on tap in Florida

In Florida, Jesse Guardado confessed and quickly pleaded guilty to fatally stabbing a 75-year-old woman inside her Walton County home in 2004 before stealing her jewelry box, $80 and other valuables to support his drug habit. She had helped him get a job and housing.

A federal appeals court in 2024 said Guardado, now 64, had received a “full and fair” hearing during the death penalty phase of his case.

Florida has carried out more than half the 32 total executions in the U.S. so far this year. DeSantis, who leaves office in January, has said that his goal is to bring justice to families who have waited decades for the death sentences to be carried out.

Alabama’s scheduled execution

Michael Taylor, 54, faces execution in Alabama, 35 years after fatally beating an older couple with a metal bar during a robbery in their Gadsden home. Police arrested the 19-year-old Taylor with the victims’ Cadillac, an hour away in Birmingham. The execution would be the state’s third this year.

Death penalty opponents had urged Republican Gov. Kay Ivey to reduce Taylor’s sentence to life in prison, noting his age and immaturity at the time of the killings. She declined.

“If the state kills Michael, it is not the 19-year-old who made the worst mistake of his life who it kills. But the mature, well-respected, God-fearing man sitting in that cell today,” said Esther Brown of Project Hope to Abolish the Death Penalty.

The state plans to execute Taylor by lethal injection after a judge declared a nitrogen gas method unconstitutional. His attorneys objected to the last-minute switch to lethal injection since he selected nitrogen gas as his method several years ago, but a judge ruled against Taylor.