2026-04-24T04:00:50.927Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析
发布于 2026年4月24日，美国东部时间00:00
唐纳德·特朗普总统周四在椭圆形办公室发表讲话。
布伦丹·斯米亚洛夫斯基/法新社/盖蒂图片社
唐纳德·特朗普总统正大声试图向两个关键受众传递信息——伊朗领导层和美国民众——表明他在这场战争中掌握着主动权。
但他的问题在于，这两方可能都没在听。
随着这场战争在本周末迎来第八周节点，僵局正在加剧：伊朗通过封锁霍尔木兹海峡不断升级对全球的影响，而特朗普则试图通过海上封锁扼杀伊朗经济。
因此，这场对峙的结局可能取决于哪一方拥有足够的政治毅力坚持到最后。
特朗普清楚这一局势逻辑。他周四在社交媒体上宣称：“我有的是时间，但伊朗没有。”随后他猛烈抨击了那些暗示他急于结束战争的媒体报道。“别催我，别催我，”特朗普对记者们说，“我看到的每篇报道都在说‘哦，特朗普时间紧迫’，我没有。不，不。你知道谁时间紧迫吗？他们才是。”
特朗普希望赢得这场战争，并在持怀疑态度的美国民众中迟来地获得对战争的支持，因此让人们相信他的言论至关重要。但他起步就处于不利境地：数周来，他多次发表与战略实际情况相矛盾的言论。而且随着冲突持续，他坚称自己并不在意时间限制，这有可能是为了掩饰外界对他这位总统日益增加的压力。
越来越多的迹象表明，不仅伊朗认为自己在这场战争中占据上风——它利用地理条件作为不对称优势对抗超级大国——而且它愿意不惜一切代价取得胜利。自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，这个国家一直视自己与美国处于战争状态，并且在20世纪80年代与伊拉克打了一场近八年的堑壕战，造成约100万人伤亡。
特朗普周四声称美国“完全控制”了霍尔木兹海峡——这条关键水道是全球20%石油供应的运输通道。但这并非事实。伊朗小型海军船只袭击了多艘前往该海峡以加强封锁的船只。德黑兰方面表示，已开始对要求通过海峡的船只收取通行费。《华盛顿邮报》报道称，五角大楼告诉国会，完全清除伊朗在海峡布设的所有水雷可能需要六个月时间——这将延长冲突可能带来的影响。
与此同时，CNN国际外交编辑尼克·罗伯逊在一篇分析中得出结论称，伊朗在与美国的这场“胆小鬼博弈”中正出人意料地占据上风。
亚伯拉罕·林肯号航空母舰（左）于4月16日在阿拉伯海执行封锁行动。
美国海军/海军中央司令部公共事务/美国中央司令部公共事务
伊朗海军可能已遭受重创——其导弹和无人机库遭到摧毁，领导层也因以色列的暗杀突袭行动元气大伤。但它正展现出持久作战的能力，正如伊朗新军事统治者所认为的那样，这是一场生死存亡之战。
“他们所要做的就是证明，你不需要击败对手，甚至不需要与他们的实力相当，你只需要让对方觉得继续作战的代价过高……伊朗其实并没有被打垮，它们挺过来了，”昆西负责任治国研究所非常驻研究员莫妮卡·图夫特说道，“（伊朗）可能会比美国的政治意愿和军事力量更持久。”
特朗普的第二个受众是美国民众。他的白宫最初告诉民众这场战争将持续四到六周，但现在各种迹象都表明，这场冲突及其带来的糟糕经济影响将持续更久。
这让总统陷入了政治泥潭。这场战争从一开始就不受欢迎，历史经验表明，海外军事行动的受欢迎程度往往会随着时间推移而下降。伊朗战争的民调结果对特朗普来说已经十分糟糕。本月早些时候的一项哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/舆观调查显示，仅有36%的美国人认为军事行动取得了成功，仅25%的人认为这场战争是一项战略成功。
考虑到由于没有地面部队参战，美国的死亡人数相对较低，公众舆论如此糟糕就更令人惊讶。到目前为止，至少已有13名美国军人在作战行动中阵亡。
特朗普还试图援引此前美国参与的几场冲突的时长，来辩称他对伊朗的“军事行动”只是短暂的一瞬。
“我们在越南打了大概18年。我们在伊拉克打了很多很多年，”特朗普周四说道，“我不想拿二战举例，因为那是特例。但我们在二战中打了四年半，快五年。我们在朝鲜战争打了七年。而这场战争我才打了六周。”
或许特朗普说自己有充足时间达成协议是有道理的。但拿伊拉克、阿富汗和越南这些以失败告终的战争做类比，能否安抚民众或许值得怀疑。
这场战争糟糕的民调结果之所以重要，不仅因为它反映出特朗普在距离中期选举不到七个月时岌岌可危的政治处境，还因为它表明长期战争在政治上是不可持续的。伊朗领导人会明白，美国民众已经厌倦了平均每加仑4美元的汽油价格。
唐纳德·特朗普总统周四在椭圆形办公室发表讲话，国务卿马可·鲁比奥（右）和副总统JD·万斯在旁聆听。
马克·希费尔贝恩/美联社
特朗普因战争期间混乱且时常自相矛盾的战略而饱受批评。但他现在坚称自己已经理清了终局策略。
他辩称，美国对伊朗船只和港口的封锁将使其经济陷入瘫痪。“他们没有任何生意可做，”特朗普坚称，除非德黑兰很快能将石油装上船，否则整个石油工业基础设施都将不得不关闭。他还声称伊朗领导层因这场战争而四分五裂，“他们甚至不知道谁在领导国家。”
在战争仍在进行的情况下，判断其结局是不可能的。但如果伊朗最终被迫屈服于特朗普的要求，那么他寄希望于军事和经济胁迫的赌注就会得到回报。
但这位总统有可能重蹈近年来美国外交政策中自我毁灭的覆辙。官员们常常创设一些场景，假设对手会做出合乎逻辑的反应。但美国的对手有着自身对国家核心利益的认知。特朗普眼中的成功是以经济繁荣为定义的，但几乎没有证据表明伊朗的革命政权抱有同样的想法。如果真是如此，那么美国施加的任何程度的经济压力都可能无法让伊朗退让。到那时，特朗普和美国民众真的愿意继续承受这种痛苦吗？
还有另一种可能性需要考虑。如果特朗普说自己不受时间压力时，是真心实意的呢？
华盛顿的主流观点认为，为了减轻共和党在11月的选举损失，特朗普必须尽快结束战争。但这位总统最近似乎几乎已经接受了民主党会大获全胜的局面。周四他有时甚至似乎在试图说服美国人，甚至是他自己，再忍受一段时间的高油价，是换取“伊朗不会拥有核武器”的公平交易。“你知道这么做换来的是什么吗？伊朗不会拥有核武器，不会试图炸毁我们的一座城市，也不会炸毁整个中东，”他说道。
开战前，特朗普并未公开证据表明伊朗即将拥有核武器。如果他能在开战前提出这一论点，或许会更有说服力。
但有时美国总统会延长一场他们无法取胜的战争，以避免背负战败的污名。
这会不会就是特朗普说“别催我”时的真实意图？
What does Trump mean when he warns, ‘Don’t rush me’ in Iran?
2026-04-24T04:00:50.927Z / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
PUBLISHED Apr 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office on Thursday.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
President Donald Trump is loudly trying to convince two critical audiences — Iran’s leaders and the American people — that he’s calling the shots in the war.
His problem is that neither may be listening.
With the war’s eight-week mark looming this weekend, a stalemate is tightening as Iran inexorably increases global fallout with its closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump tries to throttle its economy with his maritime blockade.
The question that may decide the outcome of the showdown has therefore become which side has the political will to outlast the other.
Trump understands the equation. “I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t,” he declared on social media Thursday. He then lashed out at media narratives suggesting he’s desperate to end the war. “Don’t rush me. Don’t rush me,” Trump told reporters. “Every story I see, ‘Oh, Trump is under time pressure,’ I’m not. No, no. You know who’s under time pressure? They are.”
It is imperative to Trump’s hopes of winning the war and creating belated support for it among a skeptical US public that his words are believed. But he’s starting from a tough spot, considering he’s spent weeks making contradictory statements about his strategy that often clash with its realities. And there’s the possibility that his determination to make clear he’s not worried about timelines is an effort to disguise mounting pressure on the president as the conflict extends.
There is growing evidence not only that Iran believes it has the upper hand in a war in which it has used geography as asymmetric leverage against a superpower, but that it is willing to pay whatever price it takes to prevail. This is a country that has regarded itself at war with the United States for 47 years, since the Islamic revolution, and that fought a near eight-year trench warfare conflict against Iraq in the 1980s that caused an estimated 1 million casualties.
Trump on Thursday claimed that the United States has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that is a conduit for 20% of the world’s oil supplies. But this is not true. Iranian small naval boats have attacked several ships headed to the strait to reinforce its stranglehold. Tehran said it received its first tolls from vessels wanting passage. And The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon told Congress it could take six months to fully clear all the mines Iran has dropped in the strait — prolonging the potential impact of the conflict.
CNN’s International Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson, meanwhile, concluded in an analysis that Iran is emerging as the surprise leader in a game of chicken against the US.
The USS Abraham Lincoln, left, conducts blockade operations in the Arabian Sea on April 16.
US Navy/NAVCENT Public Affairs/US Central Command Public Affairs
Iran’s navy might be devastated — its missile and drone arsenals ravaged and its leadership devastated by Israeli assassination raids. But it is showing it has staying power in what its new military rulers see as an existential fight.
“All they need to do is show that you don’t need to defeat the adversary, you don’t even need to match their power, you just have to make it too costly to sustain. … The Iranians aren’t really going anywhere and they are surviving,” said Monica Toft, a non-resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “(Iran) may outlast the American political will and military might here.”
Trump’s second audience is the American people. His White House initially told the country that the war would last between four to six weeks, but there is now every sign that the conflict — and its hellish economic half-life — will last much longer.
This leaves the president on political quicksand. The war was not popular to begin with, and history shows that foreign military adventures tend to become less popular the longer they last. Iran war polling is already devastating for Trump. A CBS News/YouGov survey earlier this month found that only 36% of the country thinks military operations were successful and just 25% believe the war is a strategic success.
It’s remarkable that public opinion is so dire considering that, in recent historical terms, the US death toll has been comparatively low because ground troops are not involved. So far, at least 13 US service personnel have been killed in combat operations.
Trump is also reaching for comparisons to the length of previous American conflicts to argue that his Iran “excursion” is a snapshot in time.
“We were in Vietnam, like, for 18 years. We were in Iraq for many, many years,” Trump said Thursday. “I don’t like to say World War II, because that was a biggie. But we were four-and-a-half, almost five years in World War II. We were in the Korean War for seven years. I’ve been doing this for six weeks.”
Maybe the president has a point when he says he has plenty of time to make a deal. But it’s perhaps questionable whether making analogies with lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam will reassure the public.
The war’s poor polling is important not just because it reflects Trump’s parlous political position less than seven months before midterm elections. It also suggests a prolonged war is politically unsustainable. Iran’s leaders will understand Americans are tired of paying an average of $4 a gallon for gasoline.
President Donald Trump speaks as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, right, and Vice President JD Vance listen in the Oval Office on Thursday.
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Trump has been criticized for his chaotic and often contradictory strategies during the war. But he’s now insisting that he’s got the endgame down.
He argued that a US blockade of Iran’s ships and ports would bring its economy to its knees. “They’re getting no business,” Trump insisted, saying unless Tehran could put oil onto ships soon, the entire oil industry infrastructure would have to shut down. And he argued that Iran’s leadership had been so fractured by the war, “They don’t even know who’s leading the country.”
It’s impossible to judge how a war will turn out while it is still taking place. But if Iran eventually is forced to capitulate to Trump’s demands, his bet on military and then economic coercion will have paid off.
But the president risks repeating a self-destructive trend in recent US foreign policy. Often, officials create scenarios that assume logical responses by an adversary. But US foes have their own perceptions of their natural interest. While Trump sees success in the world as defined by economic prosperity, there’s little evidence that Iran’s revolutionaries feel the same way. If that’s the case, there may be no level of US economic pressure that gets it to back down. Are Trump and the American people really willing to keep bearing the pain at that point?
There is one other possibility to consider. What if Trump really means it when he says he’s under no pressure from time?
Washington conventional wisdom assumes that to mitigate GOP losses in November, Trump will have to end the war soon. But the president has recently seemed almost resigned to a Democratic rout. And at times on Thursday he seemed to be trying to convince Americans, and even himself, that higher gasoline prices for a while longer represent a fair exchange for his war. “You know what they get for that? Iran without a nuclear weapon that’s going to try and blow up one of our cities or blow up the entire Middle East,” he said.
Trump had not presented public evidence that Iran was on the cusp of a nuclear weapon before the war. And this argument might have been more effective had it come before he started bombing.
But sometimes American presidents have prolonged wars they can’t win to avoid being saddled with the stigma of defeat.
Is that what Trump means when he says, “Don’t rush me”?