2026-05-01 12:02 PM UTC / 路透社
作者：霍华德·施奈德与迈克尔·S·德比
2026年5月1日 12:02 PM UTC 1小时前更新
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[1/2]2025年4月24日，美国克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克在纽约接受路透社采访时发言。路透社/迈克·西加尔/档案照片
摘要
- 卡什卡里：若霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，可能需要加息
- 哈马克：降息倾向已不再合适
- 洛根：美联储下次行动加息或降息均有可能
- 美国汽油均价跃升至约每加仑4.39美元
华盛顿5月1日路透电 —— 反对本周政策声明的美联储官员周五表示，伊朗战争引发的油价冲击正在发酵，意味着美国央行应当明确，不再倾向于降息，未来有可能上调借贷成本。
本周美联储以1992年以来最悬殊的投票结果，将基准隔夜利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间，但保留了暗示其下一步可能降息的措辞，这与约18个月前启动的进程一致：将用于对抗通胀的高借贷成本下调至更“中性”的立场。
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但通胀仍远高于美联储2%的目标，且持续攀升，这场战争的结果风险极高，以至于政策官员越来越不确定利率能否维持当前水平。其中一些官员担忧，实际上可能需要上调利率。
“通胀压力持续广泛存在，不断上涨的油价带来了额外的通胀压力，”克利夫兰联储行长贝丝·哈马克说道。她与另外两名央行同僚支持维持利率不变，但因利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策声明中的“降息倾向”而投下反对票。
“考虑到当前的经济前景，我认为这种降息倾向已不再合适，”她在一份声明中表示。
达拉斯联储行长洛里·洛根也表达了同样的观点。
鉴于经济前景不明朗，“FOMC下次调整利率，无论是加息还是降息，都可能是合适的，”洛根在另一份声明中说道，并补充称，美联储“此时不应给出暗示倾向于降息的前瞻性指引”。
明尼阿波利斯联储行长尼尔·卡什卡里表示，他认为霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，以及中东能源基础设施进一步受损，可能引发足够大的价格冲击，以至于美联储可能需要“一系列加息”以遏制通胀预期。
“若霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭，且中东地区能源和大宗商品基础设施进一步受损……价格冲击波可能比目前预期的要大得多，”卡什卡里在本周会议结束后，美联储政策沟通禁令解除时发布的另一份声明中说道。
“我们可能不得不采取强有力的政策应对措施……联邦基金利率上调，甚至可能是一系列加息，即便这会加剧劳动力市场进一步疲软的风险，此举也可能是合理的。”
本周美联储以8票赞成、4票反对通过了政策声明，声明重复了现有措辞，保留了降息倾向——这一立场遭到三名投票权美联储官员的反对，而央行政策委员会的其他非投票成员可能也持相同看法。第四张反对票则支持降息。
基于市场的未来通胀预期指标上升
霍尔木兹海峡作为全球能源供应的关键航运通道，其关闭以及基础设施面临的威胁，已将全球油价推至每桶100美元以上达数周之久，本周更是触及126美元，而两个月前冲突爆发时油价仅为70美元。
根据驾车者维权组织AAA的数据，美国汽油均价隔夜上涨近10美分，达到约每加仑4.39美元，而2月底该价格约为3美元。
展示汽油价格
通胀洞察公司总裁奥迈尔·沙里夫表示，尽管目前仍处于“初期阶段”，但美联储在6月下次会议前，可能会看到5月消费者物价指数涨幅超过4%，这呼应了新冠疫情和2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后通胀飙升的情况。
预计未来几周将获得参议院确认，接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席的凯文·沃什，可能“不仅面临可能蔓延至整体经济的能源通胀飙升，还可能面临通胀预期指标上升的局面”，沙里夫周五写道。“这是一个艰难的环境，唐纳德·特朗普总统曾表示他期待沃什能推动降息。”
尽管美联储官员表示，他们认为当前通胀预期稳定，这是管理未来通胀前景的关键考量因素，但家庭调查显示，自战争爆发以来，民众对短期通胀的预期大幅上升，而对长期通胀率的预期则小幅上升。
与此同时，基于市场的通胀预期指标已开始攀升。
10年期美国通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率隐含的通胀率达到2023年以来最高水平，自战争爆发以来已上涨约25个基点；5年期TIPS收益率也上涨了大致相同的幅度。被称为5年5年期远期通胀率的指标——即未来五年的五年预期通胀率——自2月底以来上涨约20个基点，接近今年年初以来的最高水平。
鲍威尔在周三的会后新闻发布会上表示，围绕这场战争的通胀形势变化多端，美联储官员的“核心”想法正朝着移除声明中的降息倾向转变，转而采用更中性的措辞，为加息敞开大门。他表示，根据事态发展，这一变化最快可能在6月16日至17日的政策会议上实现。
卡什卡里在周五的声明中指出了“降息”措辞的另一个潜在问题。根据他的分析，即便在“良性情景”下——霍尔木兹海峡很快开放，恢复石油和其他全球大宗商品的运输——美国年度核心通胀率仍将维持在3%，远高于央行的目标水平。在他看来，这一水平足以让政策利率在相当长的一段时间内维持不变。
霍华德·施奈德与迈克尔·S·德比报道；千住智津子与保罗·西马奥编辑
Fed should ditch rate-cut lean because of oil shock, policymakers say
2026-05-01 12:02 PM UTC / Reuters
By Howard Schneider and Michael S. Derby
May 1, 2026 12:02 PM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
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[1/2]Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, U.S., April 24, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo
Summary
- Kashkari says rate hikes may be needed in the event of prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure
- Hammack says easing bias no longer appropriate
- Logan says plausible for Fed’s next move to be a rate hike or cut
- Average price of US gasoline jumps to about $4.39 a gallon
WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials who dissented against this week’s policy statement said on Friday the developing oil price shock from the war in Iran means the U.S. central bank should be clear it can no longer lean towards interest rate cuts, with a rise in borrowing costs possible in the future.
In its most divided vote since 1992, the Fed this week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range but retained language indicating its likely next move would be a cut, consistent with a process begun about 18 months ago of lowering the high levels of borrowing costs used to battle inflation towards a more “neutral” stance.
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But inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target and has been rising, with risks about the outcome of the war so acute that policymakers have become less certain rates can fall from where they are. Some of them are concerned they may in fact need to rise.
“Inflation pressures continue to be broad-based, and rising oil prices present an additional source of inflationary pressure,” said Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who like two other central bank colleagues supported holding rates steady but dissented because of the “easing bias” in the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement.
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“I see this easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook,” she said in a statement.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan echoed that sentiment.
Given the uncertain outlook for the economy, “it could plausibly be appropriate for the FOMC’s next rate change to be either an increase or a cut,” Logan said in a separate statement, adding that the Fed “should not give forward guidance implying a bias toward rate cuts at this time.”
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he felt a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and any further damage to Middle East energy infrastructure could produce a price shock large enough that the Fed would need “potentially a series” of rate hikes to keep inflation expectations in check.
“With an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz and potentially further damage to energy and commodity infrastructure in the Middle East … the price shock wave could be much larger than is currently expected,” Kashkari said in a separate statement released as the lid on Fed policy communications lifted after the end of this week’s meeting.
“We would likely have to follow through with a strong policy response … Federal funds rate increases, potentially a series of them, could be warranted even at the risk of further weakness to the labor market.”
The policy statement, approved on an 8-4 vote this week, repeated existing language to indicate the easing bias three voting Fed officials felt is no longer appropriate, with other non-voting members of the central bank’s policy committee likely in agreement. The fourth dissent was in favor of a rate cut.
MARKET-BASED MEASURES OF FUTURE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping channel for the world’s energy supply, and threats to infrastructure have pushed the global price of oil well above $100 a barrel for several weeks, touching $126 just this week versus $70 at the start of the conflict two months ago.
The average price of U.S. gasoline jumped by nearly 10 cents overnight to about $4.39 a gallon, according to motorist advocacy group AAA, versus around $3 as of late February.
Shows gasoline prices
Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights, said that while it was still “early days,” the Fed ahead of its next meeting in June could see a consumer price reading for May that tops 4%, echoing the surge of inflation that followed the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Kevin Warsh, who is expected to win Senate confirmation in the coming weeks to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell as the head of the central bank, could “face not just surging energy inflation that threatens to spill into the broader economy but also likely rising inflation expectations figures,” Sharif wrote on Friday. “That is a tough environment from which to argue for rate cuts,” that President Donald Trump has said he expects Warsh to deliver.
Though Fed officials say they regard inflation expectations as currently stable, a key consideration in managing the future inflation outlook, surveys of households have shown their expectations for near-term inflation have risen sharply since the war began, while their outlooks for the rate of price increases over a longer horizon have edged up more modestly.
Market-based measures, meanwhile, have begun moving up.
The inflation rate implied by the yields on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities is the highest since 2023 and has climbed about 25 basis points since the war began, and the rate on 5-year TIPS has also climbed by about the same margin. What’s known as the 5-year, 5-year forward rate, a measure of expected inflation five years from now for the following five years after that point, is up about 20 basis points since late February and is near its highest level since the start of the year.
Powell, in his post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, said the inflation dynamics around the war were fluid enough that the “center” of thinking among Fed officials was moving towards removing the easing bias from the statement in favor of more neutral language opening the door to a rate hike, a change he said could come, depending on events, as soon as the June 16-17 policy meeting.
In his statement on Friday, Kashkari pointed to another potential issue with the “easing” language. According to his analysis, even under a “benign scenario,” where the Strait of Hormuz opens relatively soon to allow the flow of oil and other global commodities to resume, underlying inflation in the U.S. would remain at 3% for the year – well above the central bank’s target and high enough in his view to leave the policy rate unchanged for what would likely be an extended period of time.
Reporting by Howard Schneider and Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao
