2026年5月18日 美国东部时间凌晨0:00 / CNN
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析文章
唐纳德·特朗普国会相关报道 1月6日事件
2026年5月15日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫南草坪对记者发表讲话。
亚历克斯·弗罗布莱夫斯基/法新社/盖蒂图片社
唐纳德·特朗普总统正在升级他的报复行动，此前他在一场竞选活动中又击败了一名共和党批评者，他本人对此深感满意，但这也给他的政党带来了越来越大的政治风险。
特朗普于周六在路易斯安那州共和党初选中彻底摧毁了联邦参议员比尔·卡西迪的连任希望，并将于周一派遣皮特·赫格塞斯前往肯塔基州，试图挫败众议员托马斯·马西的竞选——这对于一名战时国防部长而言，是一次罕见且颇具争议的政治介入。
马西曾联合起草一项要求公开杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关文件的法案，且反对伊朗战争，他将于周二接受选民投票。但他周日表示，并不担心特朗普的攻击。“你可以看出我在民调中领先，他们已经走投无路了，”他在接受美国广播公司新闻《本周》节目采访时说道。
本周末，特朗普还威胁要撤回对科罗拉多州共和党众议员劳伦·博伯特的背书，原因是她为马西助选。
卡西迪因在2021年1月6日国会山骚乱事件的参议院弹劾审判中投票定罪特朗普而遭到报复，此次失败进一步拉长了共和党高层的“清洗名单”，包括利兹·切尼和米特·罗姆尼在内的多名人士早已因反对这位强势总统而被排挤出党内高层职位。
特朗普在路易斯安那州的强硬行动再次令人震惊地展示了他对本党的掌控力，以及他调动最坚定支持者的能力——即便这位连任总统的全国支持率已处于历史最低点。这一政治超级影响力也解释了为何特朗普没有像此前那些不受欢迎的在任总统那样，丧失塑造国内政治的能力。本月早些时候，特朗普就挫败了印第安纳州几名拒绝按照他的要求重划国会选区的州议员。
但特朗普在任期内执着于政治报复，将精力集中在个人目标、耗资巨大的遗留项目以及不合时宜的经济言论上，这将给共和党带来麻烦。
特朗普一直是一位独特的政治人物。他将自身的执念——比如移民、关税或北约军费开支——转化为政策目标，借此打造了一场运动并两度当选总统。但如今他的最新举动正值共和党在艰难的中期选举前夕，应对其动荡的第二任期带来的初步后果之际。
2026年5月11日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫玫瑰园发表讲话。
朱莉娅·德马里·尼基森/美联社
尽管特朗普正按照自己的目标行事，但他并未关注 arguably 对国家更为至关重要的议题——比如结束他对伊朗的战争，以及这场冲突带来的经济后果，这正让本已严峻的民生负担危机进一步恶化。
特朗普的干预正加剧共和党中期选举候选人面临的核心困境：他们如何既能吸引反感这位总统的更广泛选民群体，又不会招致他的愤怒？公开与特朗普决裂，可能会疏远基础选民——这些人在摇摆选区的胜选中并非足够关键的群体，但需要全体出动才能确保党内候选人具备竞争力。
特朗普热衷于报复，且将精力放在诸如新建白宫舞厅和拟在华盛顿修建大型纪念拱门等个人热衷项目上，这也为民主党提供了绝佳的攻击口实，将这位亿万富翁总统描绘成脱离选民生活的人。多数选民在民调中表示反对他发动的战争，且认为他的政策让他们的生活变得更糟。
特朗普需要展现出绝对的掌控力，这引发了一个疑问：随着这位任期受限的总统即将退出政治舞台，他将在多大程度上塑造共和党未来的走向。在某个时刻，共和党将需要着眼未来。如果候选人无法为了各自选区的独特政治需求而远离这位不受欢迎的领导人，这一目标将更难实现。
民主党人看到可乘之机
特朗普本周末忙于策划报复之际，美国汽车协会的数据显示全国汽油均价达到每加仑4.50美元。近期政府数据显示，通货膨胀率已达到2023年5月以来的最高点。生活成本上涨幅度超过工资涨幅，进一步加剧了这一影响。
民主党在2024年未能就民生问题提出清晰的主张，如今正试图通过宣扬特朗普正在排挤除最极端的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）活动人士之外的所有群体，以此争取独立选民乃至部分温和派和保守派共和党选民。
“参议员卡西迪是一位正常、诚实且非常保守的共和党人。事实证明，在唐纳德·特朗普的共和党里，像他这样的人越来越没有立足之地了，”前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格周日在接受美国有线电视新闻网《国情咨文》节目采访时告诉达纳·巴什。
2026年4月10日，前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格在纽约市发表讲话。
吉恩·穆恩/路透社
“我们看到越来越多极端候选人在参众两院选举中脱颖而出，这确实为民主党创造了巨大的机会，”布蒂吉格说道。
作为2028年民主党总统候选人的潜在人选，布蒂吉格补充道：“只要这个人依然如此不受欢迎，共和党人就很难说服美国其他民众投票支持他们。”
特朗普不愿优先处理民生问题——他上周在福克斯新闻上表示，在与伊朗谈判时不会考虑这类问题，这进一步加剧了这一情况——让共和党领导人陷入了艰难的政治境地。
共和党众议院议长迈克·约翰逊试图为这种局面辩解，称所有问题都可以归咎于伊朗。“汽油价格过高正是因为这个原因，随后这又影响到商品运往杂货店以及其他所有环节的运输成本，”约翰逊在接受《福克斯新闻周日》节目采访时说道。
“一旦我们解决了这个问题，我们就会重新聚焦于民生议题，也就是我们此前为推动经济增长所推行的经济议题，”约翰逊表示。
然而，政治局面迅速改善的可能性微乎其微。战争陷入僵局，德黑兰始终拒绝特朗普的谈判要求。与此同时，总统若试图动用军事手段打破僵局，可能会引发更严重的全球经济动荡。即便霍尔木兹海峡在数日内恢复通航，油价稳定也可能需要数月时间。
卡西迪就特朗普的执政能力发出严肃警告
特朗普清洗共和党异见声音的举动还带来了更广泛的影响。这位总统已削弱了共和党多数派国会监督的可能性，并营造出一种违背美国民主精神和根基的印象：唯有他的权力才是算数的。
“让我阐明事实：我们的国家不属于某一个人，而是关乎所有美国人的福祉，关乎我们的宪法，”卡西迪在周六败选后说道。“如果有人不明白这一点，试图利用权力杠杆控制他人，那他们只是在为自己服务，而非为我们服务。这样的人没有资格担任领导人。”
2026年4月22日，联邦参议员比尔·卡西迪在国会山。
安娜贝尔·戈登/路透社
他的批评暗示，他可能会与另一位即将离任的共和党参议员、北卡罗来纳州的汤姆·蒂利斯（未寻求连任）站在一起，成为摆脱特朗普束缚的批评者，并挫败国会山剩余共和党人的立法抱负。
但特朗普当时正忙于庆祝，无暇听取这位路易斯安那州共和党人的指责。卡西迪在2021年的弹劾投票后，曾试图与这位总统修复关系，尽管当时他的连任看起来几乎不可能。“他对将他送上总统宝座的人的不忠已经成为传奇，很高兴看到他的政治生涯结束了！”特朗普在社交媒体上谈及卡西迪时写道。
如今，特朗普希望在周二的初选中对马伊施以同样的惩罚，此次初选已成为检验他对共和党基层选民掌控力的更严峻考验。特朗普招募了农场主、前海军海豹突击队队员埃德·加勒恩挑战马西——这位财政保守派曾投票反对特朗普的“宏伟美丽”国内政策法案，称该法案会加剧财政赤字。
此次初选已吸引了大量外部资金，耗资至少2900万美元，将总统的MAGA号召力与马西的反传统老式保守主义对立起来——这可能预示着未来特朗普不再是党内主导力量时，意识形态冲突的先兆。
赫格塞斯前往该州参与国内政治活动的举动尤其引发争议，因为他本应负责指挥一场战争，而这场战争已经打破了他此前夸下的“全面胜利”海口。而且在多数政府中，大多数官员都会竭力避免违反《哈奇法》——该法案旨在限制行政部门雇员参与政治活动。
但处于特朗普严密控制下的司法部不会调查赫格塞斯的此类违规行为，而他的参与也突显了本届政府不仅关注传统且更狭义的国家利益，还同样重视老板的个人意愿。
如今的问题是，这位越来越不受欢迎、似乎脱离许多选民关切的总统，还能在多长时间内以推进自身目标的方式行使权力，同时却可能为其政党埋下不确定的未来。
Trump’s vendettas deliver, but at what cost to the GOP?
May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
Donald Trump Congressional news January 6th
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on May 15, 2026.
Alex Wroblewski/AFP/Getty Images
President Donald Trump is escalating his retribution drive after felling yet another Republican critic in a campaign that he finds deeply satisfying but that comes with widening political risks for his party.
Trump destroyed the reelection hopes of Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy in the state’s GOP primary Saturday, and will on Monday send Pete Hegseth to Kentucky as part of an effort to doom Rep. Thomas Massie — a rare and controversial foray for a defense secretary in wartime.
Massie, who co-authored a law requiring the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files and who opposes the Iran war, faces voters on Tuesday. But he said Sunday he’s not worried by Trump’s attacks. “You can tell that I’m ahead in the polls and they’re desperate,” he told ABC News’ “This Week.”
Trump also this weekend threatened to withdraw his endorsement of GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado after she campaigned for Massie.
Cassidy’s defeat, five years after he voted to convict Trump in a Senate impeachment trial over the January 6 Capitol riot, lengthens the list of GOP grandees, including Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney, already elbowed out of top party positions for standing up to a strongman president.
Trump’s hardball Louisiana play was another stunning display of his power over his own party and his capacity to leverage the support of his most committed supporters, even as a second-term president who has never been more unpopular nationwide. This political superpower explains why the president has not emulated previous unpopular commanders in chief in losing the capacity to shape domestic politics. Earlier this month, Trump toppled a handful of state lawmakers in Indiana who balked at his demands to redraw congressional maps.
But Trump’s pursuit of his political vendettas in a presidency increasingly revolving around personal goals, expensive legacy projects and tin-eared economic messaging is going to cause a headache for the GOP.
Trump has always been a unique political figure. He built a movement that made him president twice through turning his own fixations — such as immigration, tariffs or NATO spending — into policy goals. But his latest antics come as Republicans deal with the early fallout of his turbulent second term ahead of difficult midterm elections.
President Donald Trump speaks in the White House Rose Garden on May 11, 2026.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
While he’s acting on his own goals, Trump is not focusing on issues that are arguably far more vital to the country — like ending his war against Iran, and the conflict’s economic fallout, which is making an already-stark affordability crisis much worse.
Trump’s interventions are deepening the core dilemma of GOP midterm candidates: How can they appeal to a broader electorate that disdains the president without incurring his wrath? Breaking publicly with Trump, meanwhile, could alienate base voters who aren’t sufficient for victories in swing seats to win but who are needed to show up en masse to keep party candidates viable.
Trump’s zeal for revenge and his focus on passion projects like the new White House ballroom and a proposed massive commemorative arch in Washington also offer a huge opening for Democrats to portray a billionaire president as out of touch with the lives of voters, majorities of whom have been telling pollsters that they oppose his war and that his policies make their lives worse.
Trump’s need to project total dominance raises questions about how far a term-limited president will go to mold the party as his exit from the political stage looms. At some point, the GOP will need to look to the future. That will be harder if candidates cannot maneuver away from their unpopular leader to satisfy their own political needs in their unique races.
Democrats eye an opening
Trump’s weekend of plotting revenge comes as the price of gasoline averages $4.50 a gallon nationwide, according to the AAA. Recent government data showed inflation has hit its highest point since May 2023. The impact is worsened because the rise in the cost of living is now outpacing wage increases.
Democrats, who failed to make a clear affordability argument in 2024, are now trying to reach independent and even some moderate and conservative Republican voters by arguing Trump is driving out all but the most extreme MAGA activists.
“Sen. Cassidy is a normal, honest and very conservative Republican. And it turns out people like that have less and less of a home in Donald Trump’s Republican Party,” former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” on Sunday.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg speaks in New York City on April 10, 2026.
Jeenah Moon/Reuters
“We are seeing more and more extreme candidates put forward in their House and Senate races, which does create a big opening for Democrats,” Buttigieg said.
Buttigieg, a possible 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, added, “As that one man remains deeply unpopular, (Republicans) are having a very hard time convincing the rest of America to vote for them.”
Trump’s reluctance to prioritize affordability questions — reinforced by his comment on Fox News last week that he didn’t think about such matters when negotiating with Iran — has put GOP leaders in a tough political position.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson tried to rationalize the situation by arguing that everything could be blamed on Iran. “Gas prices are too high because of that, and then that has an effect on how goods are transported to the grocery store and all the rest,” Johnson told “Fox News Sunday.”
“As soon as we get that straightened out, we will get back to the kitchen-table issues, the economic issues that we put in place to make the economy grow,” Johnson said.
Yet the chances of political conditions quickly improving are remote. The war is at a stalemate. Tehran keeps refusing Trump’s demands for a deal. Any attempt meanwhile by the president to use military force to open the deadlock could unleash even worse global economic turmoil. And even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open within days, it could take months for oil prices to stabilize.
Cassidy offers a grave warning about Trump’s fitness to lead
There are also broader implications from Trump’s desire to purge dissident voices from the GOP. The president has neutered the possibility of congressional oversight from GOP majorities and created an impression — which contravenes the spirit and foundations of US democracy — that only his power matters.
“Let me just set the record straight: Our country is not about one individual. It is about the welfare of all Americans, and it is about our Constitution,” Cassidy said after losing on Saturday. “And if someone doesn’t understand that and attempts to control others through using the levers of power, they’re about serving themselves. They’re not about serving us. And that person is not qualified to be a leader.”
Sen. Bill Cassidy on Capitol Hill on April 22, 2026.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters
His critique suggested he could join another outgoing GOP senator, Thom Tillis of North Carolina (who did not seek reelection), as a freed-up Trump critic and frustrate remaining GOP legislative aspirations on Capitol Hill.
But Trump was too busy celebrating to listen to a rebuke from the Louisiana Republican, who tried to mend fences with the president during a second term that seemed an impossibility after his 2021 impeachment vote. “His disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!” Trump wrote of Cassidy on social media.
Trump now hopes to inflict the same punishment on Massie in a Tuesday primary election that has become an even more acid test of his power over grassroots Republican voters. Trump recruited Ed Gallrein, a farmer and former Navy SEAL, to run against Massie, a fiscal conservative who voted against Trump’s “big beautiful” domestic policy bill, arguing it would balloon the deficit.
The primary, which has attracted a wave of outside money and has cost at least $29 million, will pit the president’s MAGA appeal against Massie’s contrarian old-school conservatism — a possible ideological foreshadowing of future battles when Trump is no longer the party’s dominant actor.
Hegseth’s arrival in the state for domestic political events will be especially controversial, since he’s supposed to be conducting a war that has defied his bombastic claims of total victory. And most government officials in most administrations take pains to avoid infringing the Hatch Act, which is meant to restrict political activities by executive branch employees.
But a Justice Department firmly under Trump’s control wouldn’t investigate any such infringements by Hegseth, and his involvement underscores how this administration is focused as much on its boss’s whims as on traditional and narrower perceptions of national interest.
The question now is how long an increasingly unpopular president who seems out of touch with many voters’ concerns will be able to exert power in a way that advances his own goals but could create an uncertain future for his party.