2026年关键中期选举参议院席位民调显示帕克斯顿与塔拉里科陷入胶着
2026年6月30日 美国东部时间11:49 / 福克斯新闻
作者：保罗·斯坦豪瑟
帕克斯顿胜选得州共和党初选后感谢特朗普，将矛头指向塔拉里科
在他接受福克斯新闻数字频道的首次胜选后采访中，肯·帕克斯顿感谢了特朗普总统的背书，并预测了科恩的支持者们的反应。
近四十年来，从未有民主党人在向来深红的得克萨斯州赢得联邦参议院席位。
但一项新民调显示，民主党人今年有很大机会打破长期以来的连败纪录。
根据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院周二发布的民调，民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科与共和党候选人、长期担任州检察长的肯·帕克斯顿在得州可能选民中支持率均为47%，陷入僵局。
上个月，帕克斯顿在获得唐纳德·特朗普总统背书仅几天后，就在共和党提名决选中击败了长期任职的共和党现任参议员约翰·科恩。他将与被视为民主党新星的州众议员塔拉里科展开角逐，这场中期选举是有望决定共和党能否保住微弱参议院多数席位的少数几场关键选举之一。
MAGA胜利：帕克斯顿在共和党参议院提名争夺战中击败科恩
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民调给帕克斯顿带来了一些令人不安的信号：过去十年间，他遭遇了一系列丑闻和法律问题，对其形象造成重创。2023年，得州众议院投票弹劾帕克斯顿，但最终州参议院宣告其所有罪名不成立。此外，帕克斯顿正陷入一场棘手的离婚官司，他的妻子、州参议员安吉拉去年在离婚申请中以“基于近期发现”的“圣经依据”为由提出离婚。
民调显示，不到四成受访者认为帕克斯顿品行良好或拥有正确的道德价值观。另有半数受访者表示，作为MAGA激进派、推翻特朗普2020年总统选举失利法律行动的领导者之一，帕克斯顿过于极端。
对帕克斯顿而言同样不利的是，他47%的支持率低于受访者中希望共和党明年掌控参议院的比例——后者达到50%。
民调还显示，塔拉里科获得了61%的西班牙裔选民支持——而就在不到两年前，特朗普在得州总统选举中拿下了西班牙裔选票——并且在独立选民中以27个百分点的优势领先63岁的帕克斯顿。
决定参议院控制权的十大关键竞选
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民调还凸显了巨大的性别差距：塔拉里科以18个百分点的优势赢得女性选民支持，而帕克斯顿在男性选民中也以同样的差距领先。
37岁的塔拉里科曾是中学教师，也是长老会神学院学生，他在3月的民主党参议院初选中击败了激进派、直言不讳的特朗普批评者众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特，成为参议院选举中筹款最多的民主党候选人，今年头三个月就募集了高达2700万美元。
但共和党多次针对塔拉里科，曝光他过去有争议的言论，包括声称“上帝是非二元性的”，或存在六种生理性别。
特朗普抨击民主党候选人在得州犯下“不可饶恕之罪”而不堪一击
在上个月的胜选演讲中，帕克斯顿嘲笑这位民主党提名人为“豆腐塔拉里科”、“六性别吉米”、“詹姆斯·塔拉里科”和“睾酮不足塔拉里科”。
他在赢得提名后接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时表示：“詹姆斯·塔拉里科不属于得克萨斯州。我们不能让他成为得克萨斯州的核心。他适合加利福尼亚。这里不适合他。”
民调显示，民主党品牌可能会阻碍塔拉里科，多数受访者认为民主党过于左倾。
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在与黑人候选人克罗克特展开激烈的初选后，民调显示12%的黑人选民对白人塔拉里科持有负面看法。
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但可能帮助塔拉里科的是经济问题。
六成受访者对特朗普处理生活成本问题的方式表示不满，这对帕克斯顿极为不利。
这并不意外：塔拉里科将经济担忧作为竞选重点，抨击 soaring prices（物价飞涨），他在一则新广告中走出杂货店时说道：“太多得州人感觉自己快要被淹死了。”
保罗·斯坦豪瑟为福克斯新闻横跨全美报道全国竞选活动
Shock poll: Talarico ties Paxton in Texas Senate race, threatening GOP stronghold
Paxton, Talarico, deadlocked in new poll in crucial 2026 midterm election Senate race
June 30, 2026 11:49am EDT / Fox News
By Paul Steinhauser
Paxton thanks Trump, targets Talarico after Texas GOP primary win
In his first post-victory interview with Fox News Digital, Ken Paxton thanked President Trump for his endorsement, predicted Cornyn supporters
It’s been nearly four decades since a Democrat won a U.S. Senate election in reliably red Texas.
But a new poll suggests that Democrats have a good shot this year of breaking their long losing streak.
Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, the longtime state attorney general, are tied at 47% support among likely voters in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena survey released on Tuesday.
Paxton, who defeated longtime GOP incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in last month’s Republican nomination runoff election just days after landing the backing of President Donald Trump, is facing off against Talarico, a state representative considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, in a midterm race that is among a handful that will likely determine if the Republicans hold their slim Senate majority.
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Republicans’ Senate nominee, speaks during a runoff election night event in Plano, Texas, on May 26, 2026.(Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The poll points to some troubling signs for Paxton, who has faced a slew of scandals and legal problems that have battered him over the past decade. In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton, but he was eventually acquitted of all charges by the state Senate. And Paxton is dealing with a messy divorce, with his wife Angela, a state senator, citing “biblical grounds” based on “recent discoveries” in filing last year to end their marriage.
According to the poll, fewer than four in 10 respondents said Paxton has good character or the right kind of moral values. And half said Paxton, a MAGA firebrand and one of the leaders of the legal effort to overturn Trump’s 2020 presidential election loss, is too extreme.
Also problematic for Paxton is that his support, at 47%, is below the 50% of respondents who said they preferred Republicans to control the Senate next year.
The poll also shows Talarico winning the support of 61% of Hispanic — voters less than two years after Trump carried the Hispanic vote in Texas in the last presidential election — and leading the 63-year-old Paxton by 27 points among independents.
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Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico addresses supporters at a rally in Houston.(F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
And the survey spotlights a massive gender gap, with Talarico winning female votes by 18 points and Paxton ahead among male voters by the same margin.
Talarico, a 37-year-old former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who topped progressive firebrand and vocal Trump critic Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March Democratic Senate primary, has emerged as the top Democratic fundraiser in Senate races, hauling in a massive $27 million in the first three months of this year.
But Republicans have repeatedly targeted Talarico, spotlighting his past controversial comments, including suggesting that “God is nonbinary” or that there are six biological sexes.
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In his victory speech last month, Paxton mocked the Democratic nominee as “tofu Talarico,” “six-gender Jimmy,” “James Talafreako” and “low-T Talarico.”
And he said in a Fox News Digital interview after winning the nomination: “James Talarico doesn’t belong in Texas. We cannot let him be the center of the state of Texas. He fits in California. He does not fit here.”
The poll suggests the Democratic Party brand may impede Talarico, with a majority of respondents seeing Democrats as too far to the left.
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Democratic Texas State Rep. James Talarico, left, and longtime Attorney General Ken Paxton are facing off this year in a crucial Midterm Election showdown in the race to succeed GOP Sen. John Cornyn.(Alberto Silva Fernandez/Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
And following a divisive primary with Crockett, who is Black, the poll indicates that 12% of Black voters have a negative opinion of Talarico, who is White.
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But likely helping Talarico is the economy.
Sixty percent of those questioned gave a thumbs down to how Trump was handling cost-of-living issues, which will do Paxton no favors.
It’s no surprise: Talarico is highlighting economic concerns over soaring prices, saying in a new ad as he walks out of a grocery store that “too many Texans feel like they’re drowning.”
Paul Steinhauser covers the national campaign trail from coast to coast for Fox News
