2026-07-10T19:10:19.032Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/10/politics/trump-says-the-iran-ceasefire-is-over-what-now
伊朗战争显然已进入新阶段。
在试图维持极其脆弱且混乱的双停火协议三个多月后，唐纳德·特朗普总统于周三暗示停火协议即将终止。
随后他在周五更明确地重申了这一点。
特朗普在社交媒体上写道，美国同意继续谈判，但补充称已“毫不含糊地”告知伊朗，“停火协议已结束！”
那么这意味着什么？美国在战事以及围绕战事的政治博弈中又将何去何从？
以下是几个关键要点和疑问。
和总统的许多声明一样，目前尚不清楚这一表态会持续多久。截至周五上午，空袭仍处于暂停状态，因此全面战争并未卷土重来。
特朗普表示谈判将继续进行，这似乎也表明他其实并不希望战争重启，仍执着于达成一份难以实现的和平协议。
他本周还重新放出威胁，称将打击伊朗关键民用基础设施，这很可能构成战争罪。
因此，特朗普宣称停火协议结束，或许更多是一种警告——这是特朗普最新一次试图威胁伊朗屈服，以达成一份美方可接受的协议。
当然，这种手段此前从未奏效。那么这次为何会不一样？
但如果我们按字面意思理解特朗普的表态，这似乎将成为一个包含诸多艰难抉择的转折点。
其一，美国是否会重新发动全面战争，以期从伊朗手中获取重大利益？
根据特朗普及其政府过往的言论来看，这似乎是停火协议之外的唯一选项。但特朗普周三也曾表示，“我认为全面战争不会再次爆发”，并补充道，“我们不追求长期作战”。
特朗普本周似乎还在铺垫一种说法，称即便未获取伊朗核材料或达成长期核协议，这场战争也已成功实现了伊朗的无核化。这听起来多少像是一个已经准备好彻底结束这场争端的人。
其二，美国是否会重新封锁霍尔木兹海峡？
近期停火协议破裂的原因在于伊朗持续袭击该区域的船只。美国政府曾辩称，封锁通过对伊朗经济施加重大压力，为美方在局势中争取到了巨大筹码。因此，如果德黑兰未遵守谅解备忘录中的承诺，完全开放海峡，美方理应恢复此前作为反制措施实施的封锁。但截至目前，尚无任何相关迹象。
这就引出了最关键的问题：美国还会针对海峡采取什么行动？
显而易见，停火协议摇摇欲坠的一个重要原因是伊朗不愿放弃其王牌：对海峡的控制权。战争已证明，伊朗通过威胁途经海峡的船只，有能力重创全球经济——值得一提的是，在特朗普发动战争之前，海峡一直处于开放状态。这种影响力对美国及其海湾盟友而言是一个巨大难题——不仅在当前这场战争中，在可预见的中东未来亦是如此。
谈判似乎越来越不可能解决这一问题，但这或许是唯一需要以某种方式解决的议题。
除了中东地区的艰难抉择，这一表态在国内法律层面也引发了诸多争议。
停火协议的正式终结似乎会引发一个疑问：美国政府现在是否必须获得国会的战争授权？
《战争权力法》规定，国会需在敌对行动开始后60天内宣战或授权使用军事力量——若总统寻求延期，则为90天。
美国政府此前规避了这一要求，称战争已于4月7日首次停火开始时“终止”——尽管美军仍驻扎在该地区，且偶尔会实施报复性打击。
如今停火协议显然已结束，且90天期限已于5月下旬过期，美国政府现在是否必须寻求国会授权？从逻辑上讲，答案应该是肯定的。
除非政府辩称，时间线应回溯至4月7日——或者美国正处于一场新的战争中。国防部长皮特·赫格斯瑟曾在国会作证称，停火期间时间线实际上处于暂停状态。
但无论如何，特朗普的这一决定都应引发一场真正的辩论，讨论他当前究竟拥有哪些战争权力。
话虽如此，除非有足够多的国会共和党人下定决心，否则《战争权力法》很难得到执行。只有他们才能通过战争权力决议案及其他措施，投票结束这场战争。
众议院和参议院都曾以微弱优势投票支持结束战争（尽管参议院后来推翻了该决议）。而且显然，一些共和党人正逐渐失去对这场冲突的耐心，因为它越来越有可能威胁到他们在2026年中期选举中的政治前景。
现在的问题似乎是，停火协议的终结是否会促使足够多的共和党人要么1）敦促特朗普重新发动全面战争，以期实现真正的胜利，要么2）着手结束这场战争。
参议院在上月谴责特朗普后推翻了此前的决议，当时两名共和党批评者决定给特朗普一些运作空间。路易斯安那州参议员比尔·卡西迪在听取白宫简报后，搁置了自己对战争和特朗普谈判的重大担忧；而肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗则表示，“敌对行动似乎已经结束，总统让我考虑他的谈判立场”。
鉴于谈判似乎并未取得进展，且（根据特朗普的说法）停火协议已经结束，保罗是否会再次投票反对特朗普的军事授权？曾被特朗普支持的初选挑战者击败的卡西迪，是否也会失去耐心？
其他可能担忧这场战争走向以及11月选举代价的共和党人，也面临着类似的疑问。
而特朗普看起来要么毫无好的选择，要么几乎没有任何计划——他们可能会开始觉得有必要做一件过去18个月来一直避之不及的事：真正对特朗普行使权力。
Trump says the Iran ceasefire is ‘OVER.’ What now?
2026-07-10T19:10:19.032Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/10/politics/trump-says-the-iran-ceasefire-is-over-what-now
The Iran war has apparently entered a new phase.
After more than three months of attempts to hold together an exceedingly brittle and confusing pair of ceasefires, President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that the truce was ending.
Then he said it more firmly Friday.
The US has agreed to continue talks, Trump wrote on social media, but added that Iran had been informed, “in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!”
So what does this mean? And where does it leave the United States — both with the war effort and the politics that surround it?
Here are some key points and questions.
As with many of the president’s pronouncements, it’s not clear how lasting the sentiment will be. As of Friday morning, there’s been a lull in strikes, so it’s not as if full-scale war has returned.
Trump’s statement that talks will continue would also seem to suggest he really doesn’t want it to resume and is still fixated on an elusive peace deal.
He also this week resurrected his threats to target key Iranian civilian infrastructure, which would quite possibly be a war crime.
So it’s possible saying the ceasefire is over is more of a warning than anything else — the latest attempt by Trump to threaten Iran into submission and to cut an acceptable deal.
Of course, that hasn’t really worked before. So why would it now?
But if Trump is to be taken at face value, this would seem to be a pivot point featuring some difficult choices.
For one, does the United States go back to full-scale war in hopes of extracting something significant from Iran?
That seems to be the alternative to the ceasefire, judging by Trump’s and the administration’s past rhetoric. But the president also said Wednesday that “I don’t think it’s going to start again” — referring to large-scale war — and added, “We’re not looking for long term.”
Trump has also appeared to lay the groundwork this week for arguing that the war has already succeeded in denuclearizing Iran, even without getting its nuclear material or a long-term nuclear deal. That sounds somewhat like a guy who’s just ready to be done with it all.
For another, does the United States reinstitute its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?
The reason the ceasefire crumbled in recent days was that Iran kept striking vessels in the area. The administration has argued the blockade gave the US significant leverage over the situation by applying major pressure on Iran’s economy. So if Tehran isn’t abiding by its promises from the memorandum of understanding to fully reopen the strait, one would think the US would want to reinstitute the blockade it had used as a countermeasure. But so far, there’s no sign of that.
Which leads to the big one: What else does the US do about the strait?
It’s pretty clear that a major reason for the ceasefire’s shakiness is Iran’s reluctance to give up its trump card: control of the strait. The war has proven Iran’s ability to inflict major damage on the world economy by threatening vessels that move through the strait, which, it’s worth remembering, was open before Trump started the war. That leverage is a huge problem for the US and its Gulf allies — not just in this war but for the foreseeable future in the Middle East.
It’s looking more and more like negotiations won’t resolve this, but it’s perhaps the one issue that needs to be resolved, somehow.
Beyond the difficult decisions in the Middle East are what this means, legally speaking, at home.
A true end to the ceasefire would seem to trigger questions about whether the administration must now get authorization from Congress for the war.
The War Powers Act states that Congress needs to declare war or authorize the use of military force within 60 days of hostilities starting — or 90 days if the president seeks an extension.
The administration has skirted this requirement by claiming that the war was actually “terminated” when the first ceasefire began on April 7 — even though the military was still stationed in the region and has occasionally carried out retaliatory strikes.
So now that the ceasefire is apparently over and the 90-day window passed in late May, does the administration now have to seek authorization? Logic would suggest it does.
Unless the administration is going to argue that the clock now goes back to where it was on April 7 — or that the US is in a new war. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth once said in congressional testimony that the clock was effectively paused during the ceasefire.
Either way, though, Trump’s decision should trigger a real debate about what war powers he should even have right now.
That said, there’s not a great way to enforce the War Powers Act unless enough congressional Republicans decide to. They’re the ones who could provide the votes to end the war, via war powers resolutions and other measures.
Both the House and Senate have voted narrowly to end the war (though the Senate later reversed itself). And it’s been clear that some Republicans are losing patience with the conflict, given it increasingly threatens their political prospects in the 2026 midterm elections.
The question now would seem to be whether the end of the ceasefire might tempt enough of them to either 1) push for Trump to go back to full-scale war in hopes that might achieve an actual victory or 2) decide to try to end the war.
When the Senate reversed itself after rebuking Trump last month, it did so thanks to two GOP critics who decided to give Trump some room to operate. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy set aside his major concerns about the war and Trump’s negotiations after getting a White House briefing, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul cited how “hostilities seem to be over and the president asked me to give consideration to his negotiating position.”
Given the negotiations don’t seem to be working and the ceasefire is over (according to Trump), does Paul go back to voting against Trump’s authority? Does Cassidy — who’s already been defeated by a Trump-backed primary challenger — lose patience, too?
Similar questions loom over other Republicans who might worry about where this war is going and how much it could cost them in November.
And with Trump looking like he has no good options — or even much of a plan — they might start to feel the need to do something they’ve avoided like the plague throughout the last 18 months: actually assert their power over him.