2026-07-01T04:00:25.479Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/politics/trump-supreme-court-congress-affordability-america-250-analysis
在今年2月的国情咨文演讲中，唐纳德·特朗普总统即兴发挥了他最喜爱的台词之一。
“求求你，求求你，总统先生，我们赢麻了；我们实在受不了了，”特朗普说道，暗指一些公民因史无前例的大量成功而不知所措。
一场战争、数项意义深远的最高法院裁决，以及无数次深夜社交媒体爆发之后，特朗普声称自己取得了迄今为止最大的胜利，称他在美国建国250周年之际让美国再次伟大。
一如往常，特朗普在自己第二个任期内制造了难以估量的动荡之际，将部分事实与大量夸张言论混为一谈。
当他忙着用水泥和大理石打造自己的遗产——很快还将包括一座凯旋门和一座高耸的白宫宴会厅——时，现在断言他能否效仿那些真正具有深远影响的总统，留下超越其政府任期的政绩，还为时尚早。
最高法院在夏末完成一系列重磅判决后，特朗普于周二再次开启胜利巡游。
总体而言，法院的保守派多数派扩大了特朗普的权力——部分原因是，和他一样，他们设想一个更强大的总统职位。法院还在移民等议题上为特朗普带来了重大政治胜利。但当面对宪法的明确文字时，它也抑制了特朗普对无限权力的狂热追求。
法院推翻了“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）议程中的两大支柱。今年2月，法院裁定法律不允许总统单方面征收关税，从而扼杀了特朗普的贸易战。周二，法院挫败了一项大胆的移民目标，否决了他终止出生公民权的行政命令。首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨表示，宪法第十四修正案起草者的意图非常明确。“我们今天恪守了这一承诺，”他在多数意见书中写道。
然而，多数派经常在移民问题上为特朗普带来胜利，为帮助他两次入主白宫的政策方针提供支持。上周，法院限制了法院在审理来自战争肆虐的叙利亚和海地等国、获得临时保护身份留在美国的人员的案件中的作用。在本届任期内的另一项对白宫有利的胜利中，大法官们裁定特朗普可以恢复一项旨在遏制入境口岸庇护申请的有争议政策。
特朗普最切实的胜绩记录之一，是他对共和党持续的主导地位。他热衷于在那些他发起初选挑战的“MAGA异端”议员的政治坟墓上跳舞。但有迹象表明，他的控制可能正在松动：周二共和党众议院多数派的混乱进一步威胁到他改善低迷立法记录的努力。参议院的反特朗普派系也在阻挠他通过一项可能削减中期选举选民名册的法案。
特朗普还声称他在海外取得了前所未有的连胜。
“我们受到所有人的尊重。再也没有人嘲笑我们了，”他在上周的“伟大美国州博览会”开幕式上说道，“我们不再是笑话了。（我们是）世界上最强大的国家。”
如果让美国成为世界上最不可预测的力量也算作胜利，那他或许是对的。但按照传统的全球领导力标准来看，特朗普已经让美国陷入孤立、不受信任，并面临其相对实力的严峻质疑。
他经常强调特种部队突袭抓获委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗这一惊人行动，以此证明美国独特的实力。这种傲慢可能帮助总统发动了对伊朗的战争：军事打击最初取得了战略成功，但后来陷入僵局。他结束战争的谅解备忘录让德黑兰以极小的代价获得了巨大利益。伊朗必须完全遵守特朗普所说的永久放弃核武器的承诺，否则这场战争只能是美国的失败。
尽管如此，将于下周在土耳其举行的北约峰会上，特朗普将因盟友增加国防开支而得意洋洋。北约秘书长马克·吕特上周来到椭圆形办公室，带来了一张他称之为“特朗普万亿”的图表。他告诉媒体随行人员：“这是你们的总统，也是自由世界的领袖，在必要时发挥领导作用。”
但专家担心，特朗普下周仍会对尚未兑现承诺的盟友国家大发雷霆。其他总统未能赢得此类承诺，但这位第47任总统的胜利代价高昂。赢得冷战的跨大西洋联盟正在摇摇欲坠。特朗普还在与他曾经喜欢的少数盟国领导人交恶，其中包括意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼。
但分裂是特朗普主义的标志性特征。
他的支持者将混乱本身视为总统任期成功的标志。他们乐于看到全球和华盛顿精英倒台。批评人士可能会认为埃隆·马斯克削弱联邦政府大片领域的企图最终会不了了之。但狗狗币印证了史蒂夫·班农在首届任期最初几天的宣言：特朗普将监督“行政国家的解构”。
因此，当华盛顿的智者们评判特朗普时，他们使用的评分标准是MAGA阵营根本不会认可的。
然而，特朗普式的胜利往往伴随着破坏，以被践踏的民主价值观的形式留下后遗症。后果可能是持久的——想想蕾妮·古德和亚历克斯·普雷蒂，这两名美国公民在明尼苏达州反对移民突袭的抗议活动中被枪杀。
马斯克，这位世界首富，曾庆祝将美国国际开发署扔进“碎木机”。该机构或许臃肿不堪，但它拯救了数百万生命，在发展中国家体现了美国价值观，并帮助构建了美国的软实力。
在《交易的艺术》一书中，特朗普写道，他的优势在于“眼光远大”，而“大多数人目光短浅”，因为他们“害怕胜利”。
这在房地产行业或许行得通。但这是否适用于总统任期呢？
特朗普当前的政治困境表明答案是否定的。按照传统指标——失业率、GDP增长，甚至通胀——虽然通胀高于理想水平，但远低于拜登政府时期的峰值——经济表现强劲。
他的内阁以美元来衡量成功。“道指目前已突破5万点，”前司法部长帕姆·邦迪曾高调宣称，仿佛股价上涨足以回应她助长违法总统任期的指控。
但选民对经济的看法不同。他们关心支付房租、获得医疗保健、购买食品杂货以及找到托儿服务。
如果特朗普对经济负担能力概念的嘲讽导致共和党在11月的中期选举中失败，那么很难将他的总统任期判定为胜利。他极低的支持率或许能更好地说明问题。
总统任期结束时，人们往往只会记得少数几项重大胜利。
未来的历史学家可能难以理解特朗普如何在十年间掌控了国家的精神。后世不会根据他自己的计分卡来评判他。他将与亚伯拉罕·林肯——拯救联邦——和富兰克林·罗斯福——击败大萧条并赢得二战——相提并论。
历史对特朗普的要求将不仅仅是划时代的动荡。它将评判他的胜利——除了不可否认的总统权力扩张之外——是否能超越他翻新林肯纪念堂反射池时使用的那种令人反感的密封剂的持久性。
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/24/politics/video/nato-rutte-trump-trillion-vrtc
Trump claims a glorious win streak — but history is keeping score
2026-07-01T04:00:25.479Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/politics/trump-supreme-court-congress-affordability-america-250-analysis
In his State of the Union address in February, President Donald Trump improvised a new riff on one of his favorite lines.
“Please, please, please, Mr. President, we’re winning too much; we can’t take it anymore,” Trump said, suggesting some citizens were discombobulated by a deluge of unheard-of success.
One war, several profound Supreme Court rulings and innumerable late-night social media outbursts later, Trump is claiming his biggest win yet, saying he’s made American great again for its 250th birthday.
Trump, as always, is spinning a bit of truth with a larger helping of hyperbole as he tracks deeper into a second term that’s creating unfathomable disruption.
But as he busily builds a legacy in cement and marble — soon to include a triumphal arch and a towering White House ballroom — it’s too early to say whether he’ll emulate truly consequential presidents with wins that long outlive his administration.
Trump took yet another victory lap on Tuesday after the Supreme Court finished its run of blockbuster high-summer verdicts.
Broadly, the court’s right-wing majority has expanded Trump’s authority — partly because, like him, it envisages a stronger presidency. It’s also doled out big political wins for Trump on issues like immigration. But it’s also trimmed his zeal for limitless power when confronted with the plain language of the Constitution.
The court has felled two pillars of the MAGA wish list. It squashed Trump’s trade war by ruling in February that the law doesn’t permit the president to unilaterally impose tariffs. On Tuesday, it thwarted one audacious immigration goal, striking down his executive order to end birthright citizenship. Chief Justice John Roberts said the intent of the authors of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution was crystal-clear. “We keep that promise today,” he wrote for the majority.
Yet the majority has often delivered wins to Trump on immigration, scoring wins for a policy approach that helped him twice win the White House. Last week, it limited the role of courts in adjudicating the cases of people from nations such as war-torn Syria and Haiti granted temporary protected status to stay in the US. In another victory for the White House this term, the justices ruled Trump can revive a controversial policy that aims to curb asylum claims at a port of entry.
One of Trump’s most tangible win-loss records is in his continuing dominance of the Republican Party. He loves dancing on the political graves of MAGA heretic lawmakers he primaried. But there are signs his stranglehold may be loosening as pandemonium in the GOP House majority Tuesday further threatened his attempts to improve a fallow legislative record. And an anti-Trump faction in the Senate is thwarting his attempts to pass a law that could cull midterm voter rolls.
Trump also claims he’s on an unprecedented win streak overseas.
“We’re respected by everybody. Nobody’s laughing at us anymore,” he said when opening the Great American State Fair last week. “We’re not a joke anymore. (We’re the) most powerful country in the world.”
If making America the world most unpredictable force counts as a victory, he might be right. But by traditional measures of global leadership, Trump has left the US isolated, mistrusted and facing serious questions about its relative power.
He often highlights the stunning special forces raid that seized Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro as exemplifying America’s unique power. Such hubris may have helped lead the president into a war with Iran that started with strategic success in military strikes but that degenerated into a stalemate. His memorandum of understanding to end the war hands Tehran huge benefits for little in return. The Islamic Republic will have to fully comply with Trump’s claim that it has forever renounced nuclear weapons for the war to be anything other than a US failure.
Still, at the NATO summit in Turkey next week, Trump will bask in the increased defense spending of alliance members. Secretary General Mark Rutte arrived in the Oval Office last week with a chart showing what he called “The Trump Trillion.” He told the press pool: “This is your president, but also the leader of the free world, taking the leadership role as is necessary.”
But experts fear Trump will still erupt next week at alliance states that have yet to honor their pledges. Other presidents failed to win such commitments, but the price for the 47th’s victory is steep. The transatlantic alliance that won the Cold War is reeling. And Trump is feuding with the few allied leaders he once liked, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
But fractures are a defining characteristic of Trumpism.
His fans see chaos as itself a marker of a winning presidency. They relish the downfall of global and Washington elites. Critics might see Elon Musk’s bid to eviscerate swaths of the federal government as a fizzle. But DOGE embodied Steve Bannon’s declaration in the first few days of the first term that Trump would oversee the “deconstruction of the administrative state.”
So when Washington sages judge Trump, they grade on a scale that MAGA wouldn’t even recognize.
Yet Trump’s version of winning often leaves destruction in its wake in the form of crushed democratic values. The consequences can be lasting — think of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, US citizens who were shot dead in Minnesota during protests against immigration sweeps.
Musk, the world’s richest man, celebrated feeding the US Agency for International Development into the “wood chipper.” The agency might have been bloated, but it saved millions of lives, embodied American values in the developing world and helped build US soft power.
In “The Art of the Deal,” Trump wrote that he has an advantage because he “thinks big” while “most people think small” because they are “afraid of winning.”
This may work in real estate. But is it a suitable yardstick for a presidency?
Trump’s current political struggles suggest not. By traditional indicators — unemployment; GDP growth; and even inflation, which is higher than ideal but far below its heights of the Biden administration — the economy is robust.
And his Cabinet sees its success in dollars. “The Dow is over 50,000 right now” former Attorney General Pam Bondi once roared, as if rising stock prices were answer enough to claims that she was abetting a lawless presidency.
But voters see the economy differently. They care about paying the rent, access to healthcare, buying groceries and finding childcare.
If Trump’s mockery of the concept of affordability sends Republicans to defeat in November’s midterm elections, it will be hard to judge his presidency as a win. His record-low opinion polls might be a better tell.
When presidencies end, they’re often remember for only a few big-ticket wins.
Future historians may struggle to understand how Trump hijacked the nation’s psyche for a decade. And posterity will not judge him by his own scorecard. He’ll stack up against Abraham Lincoln, who saved the union, and Franklin Roosevelt, who beat the Great Depression and won World War II.
History will require something greater of Trump than epochal disruption. It will judge whether his wins — beyond an undeniable expansion of presidential authority — outlast the blistering sealant in his renovation of the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/24/politics/video/nato-rutte-trump-trillion-vrtc