2026-07-02T10:00:28.944Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/02/politics/senate-race-rankings-july-2026
初选日历已过去四个月，美国参议院控制权争夺战的大部分战场布局已尘埃落定，真正的较量现在才刚刚开始。
民主党对夺回参议院多数席位、完成唐纳德·特朗普总统任期最后两年的执政抱有越来越大的信心，尽管该党面临不利的席位地图，且在关键选战中面临部分候选人的质疑。若想成功拿下多数党地位，民主党需要守住所有现有席位，并翻转另外四个席位，其中许多位于深红州。
多个关键选区的强力候选人招募工作，以及有利的全国政治环境，正助推民主党希望升温。民众普遍不满特朗普对经济和伊朗战争的处理方式。根据最近的CNN民调，仅有34%的美国公众对这位总统持正面看法。
共和党希望特朗普的伊朗协议（目前仍处于谈判中）能尽快缓解战争带来的部分经济冲击，包括推高生活成本担忧的高油价。但鉴于过去几个月战争的反复无常，无法保证这能在选举日前实现。
本周二，最高法院也为今年的选举注入了新变量，允许政党委员会与竞选团队更紧密地协调支出，专家称此举可能在中期选举中惠及共和党。
在当前选举周期节点，有九个州将决定11月参议院控制权的归属：其中六个目前由共和党掌控，三个属于民主党。
我们基于CNN的报道——包括与参与参议院竞选的战略家的对话，以及对候选人筹款、民调和各州党派环境的分析——排出了这份11月最易易主的席位排名。该排名反映了当前选举周期节点的竞选态势，并将在未来四个月随着大选焦点愈发清晰而发生变化。
北卡罗来纳州位居榜首，前两任州长罗伊·库珀为民主党提供了11月翻转参议院席位的最佳机会。
库珀展现出跨党派吸引力，在特朗普两次赢得该州的总统选举年里，他都成功连任州长。这种选民认可度为库珀带来了先天优势，他将在开放席位的参议院竞选中对阵共和党全国委员会前主席迈克尔·沃特利，该席位由即将退休的共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯空出。
本周发布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，在北卡罗来纳州可能选民中，库珀以50%比43%领先沃特利7个百分点。
沃特利在竞选启动后立即获得了特朗普的背书，而当前选民对总统表现的不满情绪高涨，这让他不得不应对与总统的紧密绑定所带来的负面影响。《纽约时报》的调查发现，55%的北卡罗来纳州可能选民不认可总统的整体工作表现，64%的受访者不满他对生活成本问题的处理。
库珀一直围绕民生负担问题展开竞选宣传，而共和党则试图将这位前州长描绘成对犯罪软弱的人。库珀上周发布一则广告反驳这些攻击，强调自己作为州长和州检察长的执政履历，称“你理应感到安全，这与政治无关”。
库珀在竞选初期拥有雄厚的筹款基础。第一季度结束时，这位民主党候选人的竞选账户余额约为1840万美元，而沃特利的现金储备仅为250万美元。
预计在11月选举前的几个月里，外部团体将大量投入资金。参议院领导基金宣布投入7100万美元，这是该共和党主导的团体本选举周期为保卫某个州席位计划投入的第二高金额。共和党希望这笔资金能削弱库珀的选情，辩称他在以往选举中从未面临过如此规模的对抗性支出。
与此同时，民主党支持的参议院多数党政治行动委员会已预留3100万美元用于支持库珀的广告宣传。
北卡罗来纳州自2008年凯·哈根参议员当选以来，就再也没有选出过民主党参议员，而2008年也是民主党最后一次在该州赢得总统选举。库珀的参选让民主党有机会打破这一僵局，这也让他在7月的排名中位居首位。
2. 缅因州
在当前竞选阶段，缅因州仍是一个势均力敌的摇摆州，可能在共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯与民主党候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的对决中易主，普拉特纳的争议事件近期主导了这场竞选的大量关注度。
这场竞选存在高度不确定性，因为目前尚不清楚缅因州选民会在多大程度上了解普拉特纳最新一轮的丑闻，包括他与婚姻外女性交换露骨性信息的报道，以及前伴侣指控他有“令人不安”行为的指控。
近期的两份民调显示，普拉特纳与柯林斯的竞争十分胶着，尚无明确领先者。《纽约时报》/波特兰新闻先驱报/锡耶纳学院的民调显示，民主党挑战者在可能选民中获得49%的支持率，共和党现任议员为47%；而福克斯新闻的民调则显示，在登记选民中，柯林斯获得50%的支持率，47%的受访者支持普拉特纳。
在寻求第六个任期的过程中，柯林斯有着击退民主党挑战的成熟记录，但她如今处于一个独特的位置：是今年唯一在特朗普输给前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的蓝倾州参选的共和党参议员。
柯林斯正面临特朗普在这个蓝调州带来的政治逆风。《纽约时报》的民调显示，57%的缅因州可能选民表示“强烈不认可”特朗普的总统工作表现。她试图与特朗普划清界限，可能比今年参选的任何其他共和党参议院候选人都更为彻底，但民主党很快指出，她大部分时间仍与特朗普投票立场一致，并计划将这一点作为攻击点，将柯林斯与不受欢迎的总统绑定。
共和党数月来一直在投放广告，强调柯林斯在参议院的工作如何造福缅因州，包括一则新广告赞扬她为保护家庭农场所做的努力，以及为执法部门争取到更多资金。
在许多方面，普拉特纳符合民主党在特朗普执政第二时期所推崇的“斗士”形象。尽管一年前还相对默默无闻，但普拉特纳凭借民粹主义、政治 outsider 的形象，在上月的民主党初选中获得了近72%的选票，击败了缅因州州长珍妮特·米尔斯——米尔斯在竞选陷入困境后暂停了活动，但仍保留了候选人资格。
但普拉特纳的争议事件——包括他身上带有纳粹象征意义的纹身（现已遮盖）——为这场竞选留下了巨大的未知数。民主党内部对他的参选仍存在焦虑，因其过往丑闻缠身，且不确定11月前是否会有更多爆料曝光。
共和党计划将普拉特纳的争议事件作为竞选宣传的核心议题，并有充足资金支持这一策略。参议院领导基金已宣布在该州投入4200万美元，柯林斯的竞选团队以及支持她的超级政治行动委员会“松树州结果”也拥有数百万美元的储备。
与此同时，普拉特纳在5月时拥有约270万美元的现金储备，当时他仍在应对民主党初选斗争。参议院多数党政治行动委员会表示，将拨出超过3300万美元用于这场大选对决。本周，普拉特纳主打反腐败宣传。
归根结底，这场竞选可能取决于女性选民在11月对两位候选人的态度。根据CNN出口民调，女性选民在2020年参议院选举中占选民总数的59%，其中49%至46%支持柯林斯，柯林斯在该群体中的表现优于特朗普。而在《纽约时报》的民调中，普拉特纳在女性选民中以52%比44%领先。
民主党正试图削弱柯林斯在女性选民中的支持率，尤其是在堕胎权利问题上。计划生育行动基金最近 endorsement 了普拉特纳，反对柯林斯——柯林斯是少数支持堕胎权利的共和党参议员之一。普拉特纳的竞选团队还投放广告，抨击柯林斯投票支持确认最高法院大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺，卡瓦诺是特朗普提名的三位投票推翻《罗伊诉韦德案》的大法官之一。
密歇根州是这份榜单上仅有的两个尚未确定大选对阵组合的州之一，民主党仍在激烈争夺党内提名，以接替即将退休的民主党参议员加里·彼得斯。
8月民主党初选的不确定性，让这个摇摆州在榜单上位置靠前。将对阵共和党预计候选人、前美国众议员迈克·罗杰斯的三方竞争，反映了民主党内部的一些更深层分歧，考验了进步运动在这个摇摆州的影响力——此前进步运动在纽约市等更稳固的民主党选区取得了胜利。
前州卫生官员阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德以毫不掩饰的进步派身份参选，获得了参议员伯尼·桑德斯的背书。众议员黑利·史蒂文斯是温和派，得到了许多建制派民主党人的支持。参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默表示，他认为史蒂文斯最有可能获胜。州参议员马洛里·麦克莫罗则介于两者之间，获得了参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦的背书。
最近，参议员克里斯·范·霍伦也表态支持埃尔赛义德，埃尔赛义德曾表示，他认为这位马里兰州民主党人应该成为该党下一任参议院领袖。
外部团体已开始在这场竞选中动员起来。该州有影响力的组织力量联合汽车工人工会支持埃尔赛义德。与美国以色列公共事务委员会相关的超级政治行动委员会联合民主项目则投放电视广告，支持史蒂文斯——史蒂文斯是以色列的支持者，而在2024年，以色列与加沙的战争让民主党在该州陷入困境。
目前，共和党正乐于看到民主党内部这场拖得很久且造成分裂的斗争。他们认为，这让民主党难以在初选后迅速团结在候选人周围，也让罗杰斯有更长时间来建立比2024年参议院竞选时更完善的竞选架构——当时他输给了时任众议员埃利萨·斯洛特金。
与此同时，民主党认为罗杰斯是存在缺陷的候选人，即便有特朗普出面动员共和党选民，民主党也有能力击败他。此外，他们认为非大选年民主党获胜的趋势，加上民众对总统工作表现的负面看法，将对民主党有利。
俄亥俄州在特朗普执政期间政治版图右移，但民主党仍有可能在11月夺回该州的参议院席位。
在2024年连任失利后，民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗再次参选，挑战共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。赫斯特德去年被任命填补副总统JD·万斯空出的参议院席位，此次将竞选完整任期。
该州近期的民调结果喜忧参半。本周发布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，这场竞选没有明确领先者，赫斯特德在可能选民中获得50%的支持率，布朗为47%。6月初发布的福克斯新闻民调则显示，布朗在登记选民中领先优势更大。两份民调都显示选民对总统不满。在《纽约时报》的调查中，特朗普的整体不支持率为54%，而福克斯新闻的民调显示，57%的俄亥俄州选民对总统持负面看法。
共和党计划对布朗采取与2024年竞选类似的策略，当时共和党参议员伯尼·莫雷诺以不到4个百分点的优势击败了这位俄亥俄州民主党人，差距远小于特朗普11个百分点的胜选幅度。民主党认为，布朗长期秉持的经济民粹主义立场，契合当前选民将生活成本焦虑列为首要担忧的现状。
布朗在竞选初期筹款表现强劲，第一季度结束时拥有1700万美元的竞选资金。赫斯特德这位前俄亥俄州副州长，同期的竞选账户余额仅为其一半——820万美元。
俄亥俄州可能会成为全美开销最大的参议院竞选之一，该州的州长选举和若干美国众议院席位选举也可能颇具竞争力。参议院领导基金为该州投入的资金最多，达7900万美元，而参议院多数党政治行动委员会已承诺投入超过4600万美元。
民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉曾两次当选阿拉斯加州单一选区众议院席位，2024年连任失利后转而参选参议员，这让民主党领导层将阿拉斯加州列为他们夺回多数席位的关键板块。而共和党方面，该党战略家们认为，在2024年以13个百分点支持特朗普的该州，共和党参议员丹·沙利文有望胜出。
本周发布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，这场竞争十分胶着，没有明确领先者，沙利文在可能选民中获得47%的支持率，佩尔托拉为45%。
在资金方面，佩尔托拉的筹款表现强劲，参选头两个半月就筹集了860万美元。该阶段结束时，她的现金储备为570万美元，而沙利文的账户余额超过700万美元。参议院领导基金承诺投入1500万美元，参议院多数党政治行动委员会则将投入超过1000万美元用于这场竞选。
11月的竞选可能存在一些潜在的未知变数。其一，该州采用排序选择投票制，将由8月开放初选中晋级的四位候选人决出最终胜者。其二，阿拉斯加选民的选票上可能会出现两位名为“丹·沙利文”的候选人——一名与共和党现任议员同名的候选人以共和党身份参选，引发了争议并最终诉诸法庭。
与俄亥俄州一样，爱荷华州也是近年来政治版图右移的州。共和党掌控了该州的全部国会代表团、州长职位以及州参众两院。
共和党众议员阿什利·辛森曾是新闻主播，在特朗普以13个百分点优势获胜的该州仍是早期热门人选。民主党希望前残奥会选手、自称“草原民粹主义者”的州众议员乔希·图雷克，能够在这个依赖农业、受特朗普关税和伊朗战争经济冲击影响的州取得突破。
本周发布的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，这场竞争没有明确领先者，辛森在可能选民中获得48%的支持率，图雷克为46%；另一项福克斯新闻的民调则显示，民主党候选人以4个百分点的微弱优势领先。《纽约时报》的调查发现，54%的该州可能选民不认可总统的工作表现，绝大多数受访者也不满他对经济、生活成本问题和伊朗战争的处理。
辛森的筹款能力强劲，第一季度结束时账户余额为650万美元。图雷克在与进步派州参议员扎克·瓦尔茨的初选中获胜后，仍有不少劣势需要弥补。但预计两党都将在这场竞选中投入巨额资金。参议院领导基金已预留2900万美元用于大选对决，参议院多数党政治行动委员会计划投入超过1300万美元。
除了参议院竞选，爱荷华州还将举行竞争激烈的州长选举和至少两个美国众议院席位选举。爱荷华州审计官罗布·桑德是该州唯一的民主党 statewide 官员，被视为强有力的州长候选人，有望在11月为图雷克和其他民主党下议院候选人助选。
尽管特朗普三次赢得爱荷华州，但不久前这个“鹰眼之州”还是真正的摇摆州，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马曾两次在此获胜，这一背景让民主党仍抱有希望，认为可以在该州重振政治声势。
乔治亚州排在我们的榜单第七位，这体现了民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫的政治实力，目前他似乎在对阵共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯的竞选中占据优势，而共和党原本将这场选战视为绝佳的翻盘机会。
作为2024年特朗普获胜的州中唯一参选的民主党参议员，奥索夫得益于共和党初选的漫长过程，得以积累资源并完善竞选宣传策略。这位39岁的首届参议员因发表犀利言论抨击他眼中的特朗普及其盟友的腐败行为而走红网络。
随着大选竞选活动展开，福克斯新闻针对乔治亚州登记选民的民调显示，奥索夫以13个百分点的优势领先柯林斯。这位民主党现任议员的支持率为58%，而柯林斯为44%，特朗普为42%。
根据奥索夫最近的筹款报告，这位首届参议员在资金竞争上也拥有显著优势，账户余额超过3200万美元。就连柯林斯也承认，奥索夫的筹款实力将让这场竞选“充满挑战”。参议院多数党政治行动委员会也计划投入2000万美元支持奥索夫的连任竞选。
柯林斯在5月底的账户余额不足120万美元，但全国共和党战略家表示，将有大量资金涌入这场竞选以支持这位共和党候选人。参议院领导基金已承诺为这场竞选投入4400万美元，去年该团体与全国共和党参议员委员会联合为最终的共和党候选人设立了筹款项目，开局就为柯林斯筹集了100万美元。
这位共和党国会议员以总统坚定盟友的身份参选，在决选的最后几天获得了特朗普的背书。共和党初选期间的对手曾辩称，柯林斯包袱过重，无法在11月的竞选中有效对抗奥索夫。
竞选刚一启动，民主党就发起了攻击。奥索夫发表了严厉声明，指责柯林斯“声名狼藉的偏执狂、反犹主义者和极端分子”。民主党参议院竞选委员会发布了一则数字广告，称柯林斯是“特朗普操控的木偶”。
在决选获胜后，柯林斯坚称共和党将团结起来，共同完成“在11月将共和党人送入该席位，赶走乔恩·奥索夫”的使命。要想击败奥索夫，柯林斯需要将吸引力扩展到“让美国再次伟大”的基础选民群体之外。她的竞选团队推出了一则数字广告，指出她推动了由特朗普和前总统乔·拜登签署的法律，并将奥索夫描绘成过于“自由派”的人。
民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣在数十年政治生涯后决定退休，这让新罕布什尔州的这个席位变得易主——但鉴于该州的党派倾向，民主党仍保有优势。由于新罕布什尔州以独立倾向著称，这场竞选的进展值得持续关注。
民主党对他们的潜在候选人、美国众议员克里斯·帕帕斯充满信心，他曾在艰难的选战中获胜。哈里斯在2024年以近3个百分点的优势赢得该州，但这一优势低于四年前拜登的7个百分点。
在9月初选之前，新罕布什尔大学调查中心的民调显示，帕帕斯获得了53%的民主党可能选民支持，领先进步派竞争对手卡莉什玛·曼祖尔的29%。
共和党认为前共和党参议员约翰·E·苏努努是翻盘的机会，他的家族在该州根基深厚。前马萨诸塞州参议员斯科特·布朗也仍在参与初选，但获得特朗普背书的苏努努显然是共和党初选的热门人选。两人在上月的首次辩论中就特朗普背书问题发生了争执。
同一份新罕布什尔大学民调显示，大选对决竞争激烈，帕帕斯在可能选民中获得47%的支持率，苏努努为44%。在假设的大选对阵中，帕帕斯以14个百分点的优势领先布朗。
共和党在翻转这个席位时将面临的一个挑战是，特朗普在新罕布什尔州的支持率下滑。新罕布什尔大学的民调发现，62%的新罕布什尔州居民不认可总统的工作表现。
帕帕斯在第一季度结束时拥有420万美元的现金储备，而苏努努的账户余额约为190万美元。参议院领导基金已承诺投入1700万美元，参议院多数党政治行动委员会则将投入1000万美元用于保卫该州席位。
毫无疑问，德克萨斯州将成为11月全国热议的焦点，但民主党想要翻转这个特朗普以14个百分点优势获胜的州，仍是一项艰巨的任务。
尽管民调显示共和党州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿与民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科的竞争可能颇具竞争力——包括《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的民调显示两人均获得47%的支持率，陷入僵局——但外部团体尚未宣布对这场竞选的投入。这类举措可能表明两党都认为这场竞选真正处于胶着状态，但德克萨斯州的竞选成本高昂——尤其是对民主党而言，他们在榜单上还有更有利的目标选区。
与缅因州一样，德克萨斯州的竞选波动性更高，其在榜单上的位置可能在未来几个月随着竞选推进而发生变化。
帕克斯顿长期存在的丑闻将成为民主党攻击的素材，但他在以往竞选中挺过了争议，仍是“让美国再次伟大”基础选民的宠儿，这帮助他在5月的决选中击败了现任参议员约翰·康恩。帕克斯顿还可能受益于与共和党州长格雷格·雅培同时参选——雅培在该州拥有强大的政治人脉，正寻求第四个任期。
塔拉里科的筹款能力和他面向跨党派选民的宣传信息，让民主党重新燃起希望，认为可以在11月将这个红色州纳入竞争范围。共和党很早就试图给这位州议员贴上标签，抓住他过去关于文化问题的言论——连塔拉里科本人都承认这些言论“令人尴尬”且“偏离目标”。
在资金方面，民主党早期占据优势。帕克斯顿在初选中筹款困难，预计需要全国共和党提供大量援助。值得关注的一个团体是支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会“MAGA Inc.”，以及它是否会动用其3.8亿美元的储备资金帮助帕克斯顿。就塔拉里科而言，他在第一季度筹集了2700万美元，并在帕克斯顿上月成为共和党候选人后的24小时内又筹集了300万美元。
除了上述九个州，还有三场参议院竞选值得关注：
明尼苏达州： 众议员安吉·克雷格与副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根正在明尼苏达州民主党初选中展开角逐，初选将于8月11日举行。在克雷格表示不会寻求党背书后，弗拉纳根赢得了明尼苏达民主-农民-劳工党的背书。
蒙大拿州： 如果不是因为即将到来的三方大选对决，蒙大拿州本可能跻身这份榜单。民主党候选人阿拉尼·班克黑德与独立候选人塞思·博德纳可能会在这个红色州分流非共和党选民的选票，这让共和党候选人库尔特·阿尔梅成为明显的热门人选。阿尔梅获得了参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯的背书，戴恩斯在 filing 截止日前宣布退休。
内布拉斯加州： 独立候选人丹·奥斯本正第二次参选参议院席位，此次挑战共和党参议员皮特·里基茨——他在2024年以不到7个百分点的差距输给了该州另一位共和党参议员黛比·费舍尔。奥斯本得到了内布拉斯加民主党人的支持，但 technically 仍有民主党候选人参选。辛迪·伯班克在5月的党初选中获胜，但已表示计划退出并支持奥斯本。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duMzXUFFonM
http://youtube.com/watch?si=DWo-nYLDHxgUNUp9&v=oUSSGDjdTEo&feature=youtu.be
The 9 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026
2026-07-02T10:00:28.944Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/02/politics/senate-race-rankings-july-2026
Four months into the primary calendar, most of the battlefield is set in the race for control of the US Senate. Now the real fight begins.
Democrats are increasingly bullish about their chances to win back the Senate majority for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term even as the party faces a difficult map and questions about some of its candidates in key contests. To be successful, Democrats will need to defend all their seats and flip four others, including many in deep-red territory.
Strong recruitment in several key races and a favorable national political environment are fueling the hopes of Democrats. There is widespread disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy and the war in Iran. Just 34% of the American public holds a favorable view of the president, according to a recent CNN poll.
Republicans hope Trump’s Iran agreement, which remains the subject of talks, could soon ease some of the economic fallout from the war, including the high gas prices that have heightened cost-of-living concerns for Americans. Given the volatility of the war over the past few months, there’s no guarantee that will happen before Election Day.
On Tuesday, the Supreme Court also injected a fresh element into this year’s elections, paving the way for the party committees to spend more money in close coordination with campaigns, a move that experts say could benefit the GOP in the midterms.
At this point in the cycle, there are nine states that will likely determine control of the Senate come November: Six are currently held by Republicans while three belong to Democrats.
Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point in the cycle and will shift over the next four months as the general election comes into sharper focus.
North Carolina tops the list as former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper is giving Democrats their best chance of flipping a Senate seat in November.
Cooper has demonstrated crossover appeal, winning both of his elections for governor in years when Trump carried the state in his presidential runs. That familiarity gives Cooper a bit of a built-in advantage over Michael Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee, in the open Senate race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
A New York Times/Siena poll released this week found Cooper leading Whatley by 7 points among likely North Carolina voters, 50% to 43%.
Whatley, who received Trump’s endorsement as soon as he launched his campaign, must contend with that close alliance at a time when voter frustration with the president’s performance is high. The Times survey found 55% of North Carolina likely voters disapproved of the president’s overall job performance with 64% disapproving of how he’s handled cost of living issues.
Cooper has leaned into affordability messaging while Republicans have sought to paint the former governor as soft on crime. Cooper released an ad last week rebutting those attacks, highlighting his record as governor and state attorney general, saying “you deserve to feel safe and there’s nothing political about that.”
Cooper is operating with a strong fundraising base in the early months. The Democratic nominee ended the first quarter with roughly $18.4 million in the bank compared to Whatley’s $2.5 million in cash on hand.
Outside groups are expected to play heavily in the months leading up to November with the Senate Leadership Fund announcing a $71 million investment, the second highest amount the Republican-led group is planning to spend to defend a state this cycle. Republicans are hoping that money will make a dent in Cooper’s standing, arguing he hasn’t faced that level of spending against him in past elections.
Meanwhile, the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC is setting aside $31 million for advertisements to boost Cooper.
North Carolina hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since Sen. Kay Hagan in 2008, which was also the last time a Democrat carried the state at the presidential level. Cooper’s bid has put the party in a position to break that streak, which earns him the top spot in the July rankings.
2. Maine
At this point in the race, Maine remains a toss-up state that could be prime for a flip in the contest between GOP Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Graham Platner, whose controversies have dominated much of the recent attention on this race.
There is a high degree of unpredictability around this contest, given it is unclear how much voters in Maine have absorbed the latest round of scandals surrounding Platner, including reports he exchanged sexually explicit messages with women outside his marriage and allegations from former partners of “unsettling” behavior.
Platner and Collins are locked in a tight contest with no clear leader according to a pair of recent polls. A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found the Democratic challenger drawing 49% support among likely voters compared to 47% for the GOP incumbent, while a Fox News survey showed Collins with 50% support among registered voters while 47% are backing Platner.
As she seeks a sixth term, Collins has a proven track record of turning back Democratic challenges but finds herself in the unique position of being the only Republican senator running in a state that Trump lost to former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Collins is confronting political headwinds created by Trump in a blue-leaning state, with 57% of Maine likely voters saying they strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of his job as president, according to the Times survey. She has looked for ways to differentiate herself from Trump perhaps more than any GOP Senate candidate running this year, but Democrats are quick to argue she still votes with Trump most of the time, a message they plan to hammer as they look to tie Collins to the unpopular president.
Republicans have spent months running ads highlighting how Collins’ work in the Senate has benefitted Maine, including a new one touting her efforts to protect family farms and bringing in more funding for law enforcement.
In many ways, Platner fits the “fighter” mold many Democrats have pushed for in the second Trump era. Despite being relatively unknown a year ago, Platner leaned on his populist, political outsider appeal to secure nearly 72% of the Democratic primary vote last month against Maine Gov. Janet Mills, who suspended her campaign after struggling to gain traction but kept her name on the ballot.
But Platner’s controversies, including a tattoo with Nazi symbolism that he had covered, present a big question mark in this race. Democratic anxiety about his candidacy lingers due to his scandal-laden past and questions about whether additional revelations might come to light before November.
Republicans plan to put Platner’s controversies front and center in their messaging, and they’ll have a lot of cash to do so. SLF has announced a $42 million investment in the state while Collins’ campaign and a super PAC supporting her, Pine Tree Results, have millions more in their arsenal.
Meanwhile, Platner entered May with about $2.7 million cash on hand as he dealt with his Democratic primary fight, and SMP has said they’re allotting more than $33 million to the general election fight. This week, Platner leaned into anti-corruption messaging.
Ultimately, this is a race that could boil down to how women voters are feeling about the candidates in November. Female voters made up 59% of the electorate in the 2020 Senate race and split 49% to 46% in favor of Collins, who outperformed Trump with the group, according to CNN exit polling. Platner held a 52% to 44% edge among women in the Times poll.
Democrats are trying to chip away at Collins’ standing with female voters, including on the issue of abortion rights. Planned Parenthood Action Fund recently endorsed Platner over Collins, one of the few Republican senators to support abortion rights. His campaign has also run ads highlighting her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, one of three justices nominated by Trump who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Michigan is one of just two states on this list where the general election matchup hasn’t been set as Democrats remain locked in a bruising primary to replace outgoing Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
The uncertainty around that Democratic primary in August puts this toss-up state high up on the list. The three-way contest to take on the GOP’s expected nominee, former US Rep. Mike Rogers, reflects some of the broader fault lines within the Democratic Party, testing the clout of the progressive movement in a battleground state after wins in more solidly Democratic areas such as New York City.
Abdul El-Sayed, a former health official in the state, is running as an unabashed progressive who has the blessing of Sen. Bernie Sanders. Rep. Haley Stevens is a centrist with the backing of many establishment Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he believes she has the best chance to win. Mallory McMorrow, a liberal state senator, is running somewhere between the two with an endorsement from Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Most recently, Sen. Chris Van Hollen threw his support behind El-Sayed, who has said he believes the Maryland Democrat should be the party’s next Senate leader.
Outside groups have started to mobilize in the contest. The United Auto Workers union, an influential organizing force in the state, is siding with El-Sayed. United Democracy Project, a super PAC associated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is running TV ads to boost Stevens, a supporter of Israel, in a state where the war between Israel and Gaza proved problematic for Democrats in 2024.
For now, Republicans are relishing the drawn-out and divisive Democratic battle. They argue it gives Democrats little time to unite around a candidate post-primary and provides Rogers with a longer stretch to build a stronger infrastructure than his 2024 run for Senate when he lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
Meanwhile, Democrats view Rogers as a flawed candidate whom they have proven they can beat even with Trump on the ballot to turn out GOP voters. Further, they believe trends of Democratic success in off-year elections coupled with negative views of the president’s job performance will work in their favor.
Ohio has shifted to the right during the Trump era but Democrats could have an opening to reclaim a Senate seat in the state in November.
After losing his reelection bid in 2024, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is back for another round, challenging GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who is running for a full term in the Senate after being appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance last year.
Recent polling in the state has been mixed. A New York Times/Siena Poll released this week found no clear leader in the race with Husted at 50% and Brown at 47% among likely Ohio voters. A Fox News poll released in early June showed Brown leading by a wider margin among registered voters. Both polls signaled voter frustration with the president. In the Times survey, Trump’s overall disapproval rating stands at 54%, while 57% of Ohio voters in the Fox poll had an unfavorable view of the president.
Republicans are planning to run a similar playbook against Brown as the 2024 contest when GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno defeated the Ohio Democrat by less than 4 points, much closer than Trump’s 11-point margin of victory. Democrats believe Brown’s long embrace of economic populism is right for the moment when anxiety over cost of living is a top concern for voters.
Brown has proven to be a strong fundraiser early in the contest, ending the first quarter with a war chest of $17 million. Husted, a former Ohio lieutenant governor, ended that same period with roughly half that amount – $8.2 million – in his campaign coffers.
Ohio could turn into one of the country’s most expensive Senate contests with competitive races for governor and a handful of US House seats also potentially in play. SLF is devoting the highest amount of spending to the state – $79 million – while SMP has pledged more than $46 million.
The recruitment of Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, who lost her 2024 reelection bid after winning Alaska’s at-large House seat twice, led party leaders to label Alaska as a key piece of their path back to the majority. On the GOP side, party strategists feel confident GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan will prevail in a state that voted for Trump by 13 points in 2024.
A New York Times/Siena poll released this week showed a close contest with no clear leader as Sullivan received support from 47% of likely Alaska voters compared to 45% for Peltola.
On the money front, Peltola has been a strong fundraiser, bringing in $8.6 million in her first two-and-a-half months in the race. She ended that period with $5.7 million cash on hand while Sullivan had more than $7 million in the bank. SLF has promised a $15 million investment while SMP is putting more than $10 million in the race.
There are some potential wildcards that could be factors in the race come November. One is the state’s use of ranked-choice voting, which will determine the winner between the four candidates who advance from the open primary in August. There is also the possibility Alaska voters will have two Dan Sullivans to choose from on the ballot, after a candidate with the same name as the GOP incumbent filed to run as a Republican – sparking a dispute that ended up in the courts.
Like Ohio, Iowa is another state that has seen a rightward shift in recent years. Republicans have control of Iowa’s entire congressional delegation, the governor’s seat and the two chambers in the state Legislature.
GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former news anchor, remains an early favorite in a state where Trump won by 13 points. Democrats are hoping state Rep. Josh Turek, a former Paralympian and self-described “prairie populist,” could make inroads in the agriculture-reliant state grappling with the impacts of Trump’s tariffs and the economic fallout from the war in Iran.
A New York Times/Siena poll released this week showed no clear leader in the competitive contest with Hinson at 48% support among Iowa likely voters and Turek at 46%, while another by Fox News gave the Democrat a slight 4-point edge. The Times survey found 54% of the state’s likely voters disapproved of the president’s job performance with clear majorities also disapproving of his handling of the economy, cost of living issues and the Iran war.
Hinson has been a strong fundraiser, ending the first quarter of the year with $6.5 million in the bank. Turek has some ground to make up after his primary fight against progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls. But both parties are expected to spend significant sums in the race. SLF has reserved $29 million for the general election fight while SMP plans to spend more than $13 million.
In addition to the Senate contest, Iowa is home to competitive races for governor and at least two US House seats. Rob Sand, Iowa’s state auditor and lone Democrat holding statewide office, is seen as a strong gubernatorial nominee who could help boost Turek and other down-ballot Democrats come November.
Though Trump won Iowa three times, it wasn’t long ago that the Hawkeye State was a true battleground state that former President Barack Obama carried twice, a dynamic offering Democrats some hope they can revive their political fortunes in the state.
The fact that Georgia lands at seventh on our list speaks to the political strength of Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who at this point appears to have the edge against GOP Rep. Mike Collins in a race Republicans have eyed as a prime pickup opportunity.
The only Democratic senator running in a state Trump won in 2024, Ossoff has benefitted from a drawn-out GOP primary to stockpile resources and fine-tune his messaging on the campaign trail. The 39-year-old first-term senator has generated viral moments by rolling out fiery lines calling out what he sees as corruption by Trump and his allies.
As the general election campaign gets underway, Ossoff holds a 13-point advantage against Collins in a Fox News poll of Georgia registered voters. The Democratic incumbent’s favorable rating sits at 58% compared to 44% for Collins and 42% for Trump.
The first-term senator also has a sizable advantage over Collins in the money race, sitting on more than $32 million according to his last fundraising report. Even Collins has acknowledged Ossoff’s fundraising strength will make for a “challenging” race. SMP is also planning to spend $20 million to support Ossoff’s reelection bid this fall.
Collins ended May with less than $1.2 million in the bank, but national Republican strategists say plenty of money will pour into this race to boost the GOP nominee. SLF has committed $44 million to the race, and last year, the group and the National Republican Senatorial Committee established a joint fundraising operation for the eventual GOP nominee, raising $1 million for Collins right out of the gate.
The GOP congressman is running as a staunch ally of the president, securing Trump’s endorsement in the final days of the runoff. Republicans campaigning against him in the primary argued Collins had too much political baggage to be an effective candidate against Ossoff in November.
Right out of the gate, Democrats went on the attack. Ossoff fired off a blistering statement against Collins, calling him “a notorious bigot, antisemite and extremist.” The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a digital ad calling Collins a “puppet on Trump’s strings.”
After his runoff win, Collins insisted Republicans will unite around a shared mission to “put a Republican in that seat and get rid of that Jon Ossoff in November.” To succeed against Ossoff, Collins will need to broaden his appeal beyond the MAGA base. His campaign rolled out a digital spot pointing out he spearheaded laws signed by Trump and former President Joe Biden while painting Ossoff as too “liberal.”
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s decision to retire after her decadeslong political career in New Hampshire has put this seat in play – but Democrats still retain an advantage given the state’s partisan lean. Since New Hampshire is known for its independent streak, this is one to watch as the race progresses.
Democrats feel confident about their likely nominee, US Rep. Chris Pappas, who has won tough races in the past. Harris carried the state by nearly 3 points in 2024 but that was down from Biden’s 7-point advantage four years earlier.
Ahead of the September primary, a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll showed Pappas has support from a majority of likely Democratic primary voters – 53% – compared to 29% for progressive rival Karishma Manzur.
Republicans see an opening with former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu, whose family has deep roots in the state. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown also remains in the primary fight, but Sununu, who is backed by Trump, is the clear favorite to win the GOP contest. The two men clashed over the Trump endorsement in their first debate last month.
The same University of New Hampshire survey found a competitive general election contest with Pappas receiving 47% of likely voters compared to 44% for Sununu. Pappas holds a lead of 14 points over Brown in a hypothetical general election matchup.
One challenge Republicans will face in flipping the seat is Trump’s diminished standing in the Granite State. The University of New Hampshire poll found 62% of New Hampshire residents disapprove of the president’s job performance.
Pappas ended the first quarter with $4.2 million cash on hand while Sununu had about $1.9 million in the bank. SLF has committed $17 million in spending while SMP is devoting $10 million to defend the state.
There is no question Texas will dominate a lot of the national conversation heading into November, but Democrats’ ability to flip the state where Trump won by 14 points remains an uphill climb.
While polls have shown a potentially competitive contest between Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico – including a New York Times/Siena poll that found them deadlocked at 47% a piece – outside groups have yet to announce investments in the race. Such moves could signal the parties see the race as truly in play – but Texas is an expensive commitment – especially for Democrats, who have more favorable targets higher up this list.
Like Maine, Texas is a race with a higher degree of volatility that could see its place in the rankings shift as the campaign plays out in the coming months.
Paxton’s long history of scandals will be fodder for Democrats, but he’s survived controversies in past campaigns and remains a favorite of the MAGA base, which helped him defeat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May runoff. Paxton could also benefit from being on the ballot with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who has a strong political network in the state and is seeking a fourth term.
Talarico’s fundraising prowess and his message aimed at appealing to voters across the political spectrum are giving Democrats fresh optimism they could put the red state in play in November. Republicans have sought to define the state lawmaker early, seizing on past comments about cultural issues that even Talarico has acknowledged were “cringey” and “missed the mark.”
Money is one area where Democrats hold an early advantage. Paxton struggled with fundraising during the primary, so he’s expected to need considerable help from national Republicans. One group to watch is MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC, and whether it deploys any of its $380 million stockpile to help Paxton. For his part, Talarico raised $27 million in the first quarter of the year and brought in another $3 million in the 24 hours after Paxton became the nominee last month.
In addition to the nine states above, here are three other Senate races to keep an eye on:
Minnesota: Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are battling it out in Minnesota’s Democratic primary, which will be held on August 11. Flanagan won the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party endorsement after Craig said she would not seek it.
Montana: If not for the three-way general election fight on deck, Montana might have earned a spot on the list. With Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar likely splitting the non-Republican vote in a red state, it makes GOP nominee Kurt Alme the clear favorite. Alme was endorsed by Sen. Steve Daines, who announced his retirement just before the filing deadline.
Nebraska:Independent candidate Dan Osborn is waging his second straight Senate run, this time challenging Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts after losing to Sen. Deb Fischer, the state’s other GOP senator, by less than 7 points in 2024. Osborn has the backing of Nebraska Democrats but there is still technically a Democratic nominee in the contest. Cindy Burbank won the party’s primary in May but has said she plans to drop out and back Osborn.
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