作者：Ellen Zhang 和 David Kirton
2026年3月11日 美国东部时间凌晨5:32 更新于1小时前
[1/4] 档案照片：2025年2月11日，中国安徽省淮北市一家工厂的员工在铝产品生产线上工作（无人机视角）。中国日报通过路透社提供。编辑注：本图片由第三方提供。中国以外发行。在中国不进行商业或编辑销售。/档案照片/档案照片
总结
- 部分中国工厂抓住美国关税降低的机会
- 关税至少维持到7月，促使部分企业提前备货
- 另一些企业仍坚持长期脱钩思维
- 疑虑反映了对中美关系走向的担忧
北京/深圳，3月11日（路透社） – 陈卓正急于为他的设备技术人员申请飞往美国的签证，他的一家客户正加速扩建食品加工厂，以便能以更低的美国关税进口机械设备。
相比之下，支持海外工厂项目的一家公司高管任艳林却对此次关税削减不以为然。上月美国最高法院的裁决限制了唐纳德·特朗普总统随意征收此类关税的能力，这一裁决带来了关税削减。
任艳林表示，如果他为了满足美国订单增长而增加机械设备发货，产品到达时可能面临关税重新征收的风险。
“中美关系整体给企业带来了很大的心理压力，”任艳林说，“这让我们感到悲观。”
“更实际的情况是，北美市场不会是我们的优先选择。”
关税降低促使部分企业提前备货
这种分歧反应凸显了中美贸易冲突对企业造成的深刻动荡，以及两国关系的脆弱性——尽管两国总统将于本月晚些时候会面以缓和局势。
不过，除非美国与伊朗的冲突持续冲击全球贸易，否则新的美国关税制度（至少维持到7月）可能为部分中国工厂提供机会窗口。
这可能巩固1-2月的强劲出口势头，助力中国经济实现今年4.5%-5%的增长，同时锁定去年开拓的新市场，加速其对美国市场的转向。
“中美贸易大背景依然脆弱，但目前关税环境对中国明显更有利，”荷兰国际集团（ING）亚太区研究主管Deepali Bhargava表示。
Bhargava称：“这为中国出口势头带来了上行潜力。中国出口商可能会尽快装运更多货物，以锁定当前较低的关税优势。”
根据Capital Economics的计算，最高法院的裁决和特朗普随后推出的全球10%关税，将中国商品的加权平均美国关税从32.4%降至22.3%。
特朗普计划再提高5个百分点的全球关税，但即便如此，中国生产商的处境仍远好于去年——当时两国一度相互实施类似禁运的限制。
对陈卓这样的生产商而言，这是在紧张局势再次升级前尽可能多发货的机会。特朗普仍可能通过其他法律途径重新征收关税——无论是针对特定行业还是经国会批准的特定地区，不过这些途径通常需要更长时间。
“目前看起来情况可能比以前好一些，但具体数字我们还不确定，”陈卓补充道，他的公司和美国工厂目前尚未受到伊朗战争的影响。
他指出，这一裁决使中国与其他国家的竞争对手（如土耳其）处于同一竞争水平。
Natixis估计，考虑到特朗普的10%全球关税以及特定行业的额外关税，最高法院裁决使华盛顿的有效全球平均关税降低了3.8个百分点，而中国的关税降低了10个百分点。如果全球关税升至15%，平均关税将降低2.2个百分点，而中国则降低7.1个百分点。
分析师在报告中称：“中国是美国法院裁决的最大赢家。”
（此处应有一个水平条形图：显示关税下降的国家为绿色（如英国+2.05，意大利+1.7），上升的为红色（如中国-7.14，巴西-13.56）。）
多元化将持续
去年，中国贸易顺差达到创纪录的1.2万亿美元，生产商在面临美国贸易紧张和国内需求疲软的双重压力下，将产品推向全球其他市场。
尽管美国仍是中国主要出口目的地，但2025年中国对美出口下降20%。2025年中国对非洲出口增长25.8%，对拉美增长7.4%，对东南亚增长13.4%，对欧盟增长8.4%。
深圳跨境电子商务协会会长王雯表示，最高法院裁决后这一趋势不会放缓，协会成员“正在加速开拓新兴市场”。
即使陈卓希望利用较低关税，他仍在推进“一带一路”沿线市场的布局，因为长期不确定性依然存在。
另一个可能不会改变的趋势是中国产品面临的价格压力。
当生产商进入新市场时，他们不仅要与当地企业竞争，还要与中国同行竞争——这凸显了中国工业产能过剩的严重性。
“我们的大多数竞争对手都是中国公司，因此实际上竞争压力并没有减轻，”华东一家消费品制造商的高管在谈及美国市场竞争时表示。
上海Nicoco Chan、北京Joe Cash和Sophie Yu、洛杉矶Lisa Baertlein补充报道；Marius Zaharia撰写；Shri Navaratnam编辑
我们的标准：路透社信托原则
（注：原文中“节点运行失败”等内容可能为系统错误信息，已按新闻正文内容处理。）
US tariff reprieve sparks scramble, and scepticism, in China’s export hubs
By Ellen Zhang and David Kirton
March 11, 2026 5:32 AM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
节点运行失败
Item 1 of 4 FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an employee working on the production line of aluminium products at a factory in Huaibei, Anhui province, China February 11, 2025. China Daily via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA./File Photo/File Photo
[1/4]FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows an employee working on the production line of aluminium products at a factory in Huaibei, Anhui province, China February 11, 2025. China Daily via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN… Read more
- Summary
- Some Chinese factories seize opportunity of lower U.S. tariffs
- Tariffs to stay lower until at least July, prompting some frontloading
- Others maintain a long-term decoupling mindset
- Scepticism reflects concerns over trajectory of U.S.-China ties
BEIJING/SHENZHEN, March 11 (Reuters) – Chen Zhuo is in a rush to get visas for his equipment technicians to fly from China to the United States, where one client is accelerating the expansion of a food processing plant to be able to import machinery at lower U.S. tariffs.
By contrast, Ren Yanlin, an executive at a firm supporting overseas factory projects, is brushing off the tariff cut, which came with last month’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that curbed President Donald Trump’s ability to impose such levies at will.
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If he ramped up machinery shipments to meet a rise in U.S. orders in response to the ruling, he would run the risk of levies being reimposed by the time the products arrive, Ren said.
“The broader U.S.–China relations have created a lot of psychological pressure” on companies, said Ren. “That made us feel pessimistic.”
“The more practical reality is that the North American market won’t be a priority for us.”
LOWER TARIFFS PROMPT SOME FRONTLOADING
The divergent reactions underscore how deeply the U.S.–China trade clashes have unsettled businesses and how fragile the longer-term relationship remains, even with the two presidents set to meet later this month to calm the waters.
Still, unless the escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran causes a lasting shock to global trade, the new U.S. tariff regime, which is set to remain in place at least until July, could provide a window of opportunity for some Chinese factories.
This could build on the strong export momentum in January and February and help power the Chinese economy towards growth of 4.5%-5% this year, while locking in the new markets it seized last year, accelerating its shift away from the U.S.
“The broader U.S.-China trade backdrop remains fragile, but for now, the tariff landscape is clearly more favourable for China,” said Deepali Bhargava, ING’s Asia-Pacific head of research.
“It introduces upside potential for China’s export momentum in the near term,” Bhargava said. “Chinese exporters may try to ship more goods quickly to lock in the lower tariff exposure while they can.”
The Supreme Court ruling, and Trump’s subsequent introduction of a 150-day global 10% levy, reduce the weighted U.S. tariff rate for China to 22.3% from 32.4% for Chinese goods, according to calculations by Capital Economics.
Trump plans to raise the global tariff by another 5 points, but even so, it leaves Chinese producers much better placed than last year – when at one stage the two countries had slapped embargo-like restrictions on each other.
For producers like Chen, this represents an opportunity to ship as much product in as possible, before tensions return. Trump could still reimpose tariffs using alternative legal avenues – whether targeting specific sectors or, with congressional approval, certain regions – though these routes typically take longer to roll out.
“It looks like things might be better for us than before, but we haven’t figured out the exact numbers yet,” said Chen, adding that neither his firm, nor the U.S. factory, has been affected by the Iran war so far.
He noted that the ruling levels the playing field with rival producers from other countries – in his case, from Turkey.
With Trump’s 10% global levy taken into account, as well as the industry sectors subject to their own tariffs, the Supreme Court’s ruling brought Washington’s effective global average tariff rate down by 3.8 percentage points, versus a 10-point reduction for China, Natixis estimates. If the global rate rises to 15%, the average would drop by 2.2 points versus 7.1 points for China.
“China is the biggest winner from the U.S. court ruling,” the analysts said in a note.
A horizontal bar chart. Countries with tariff reductions are shown in green (e.g., UK +2.05, Italy +1.7), while increases appear in red (e.g., China −7.14, Brazil −13.56).
DIVERSIFICATION TO CONTINUE
Last year, China ran a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus as producers, boxed in by U.S. trade tensions and weak demand at home, pushed their goods into every other market across the globe.
Chinese shipments to the U.S. fell 20% in 2025, though it remains a top export destination. Shipments rose 25.8% to Africa, 7.4% to Latin America, 13.4% to Southeast Asia and 8.4% to the European Union last year.
This trend is not expected to slow down in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling, said Winnie Wang, president of the Shenzhen Cross-Border E-Commerce Association, whose members “are accelerating expansion in emerging markets.”
Even Chen, who wants to take advantage of lower tariffs, is still pursuing markets along China’s Belt and Road global investment footprint, citing longer-term uncertainty.
Another trend that might not change is the price pressure on Chinese products.
When producers enter new markets, they are often competing not only with local firms but with one another – a stark sign of just how severe China’s industrial overcapacity has become.
“Most of our competitors are Chinese companies, so in reality the pressure hasn’t decreased on anyone,” said a senior executive at a consumer goods manufacturer in east China, referring to competition for the U.S. market.
Additional reporting by Nicoco Chan in Shanghai and Joe Cash and Sophie Yu in Beijing; and Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Writing by Marius Zaharia Editing by Shri Navaratnam
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.