Transcript: 阿莫斯·霍赫斯坦做客《与玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目，2026年4月19日
2026-04-19T12:48:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
以下是拜登政府高级能源顾问、中东谈判代表阿莫斯·霍赫斯坦的采访实录，该采访于2026年4月19日在《与玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目中播出。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我们现在邀请到了阿莫斯·霍赫斯坦。他曾是拜登白宫高级能源顾问、中东谈判代表，目前是投资公司TWG全球的管理合伙人。很高兴你再次做客节目。
阿莫斯·霍赫斯坦，TWG全球管理合伙人、拜登总统前高级能源顾问： 很高兴来到这里。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 特朗普总统称当前的汽油价格不算很高，但普通汽油的均价约为每加仑4.05美元。上一次出现这个价格还是在拜登政府时期，当时俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。所以如果你现在给特朗普总统提供建议，你会如何确保此次油价飙升不会持续太久？
霍赫斯坦： 我们现在油价已经突破4美元，因为我们确实面临能源供应中断。在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰期间，我们曾担心供应中断，但实际上并未发生，当时油价最高涨到了5美元。对于现任总统来说，霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭任何一天都会导致油价飙升。当我们面临霍尔木兹海峡这样的能源危机时，情况会是缓慢发酵，然后突然急转直下，因为一旦海峡关闭，此前在海上航行的所有油轮仍会按原计划前往目的地，这些油轮可能需要25到30天才能抵达亚洲和欧洲的港口。但目前，前往亚洲和欧洲的海上已经没有油轮了。所以我们现在正处于这样一个节点：一些国家已经没有燃料，甚至没有航空燃油。现在受影响的是贫穷国家，接下来是中等收入国家，但最终这股影响会波及美国。他还有几周时间可以采取行动，否则油价还会大幅上涨。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 换句话说，他必须尽快达成协议。
霍赫斯坦： 他必须尽快达成协议。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 因为我们看到所有经济体都在受到冲击。我的意思是，欧洲方面称航空燃油仅剩大约六周的储备。美国财政部长贝森特表示，他预计油价会在6月至9月间下跌。这现实吗？
霍赫斯坦： 我认为——目前政府方面的做法是，先放出远期消息，比如“我们会在6月处理这个问题”。如果到了6月油价依然高企，他们就会说“那我们就等到8月至11月”。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 他们试图通过言论打压市场。
霍赫斯坦： 他们确实在试图打压市场。你刚才提到了欧洲的情况，一些亚洲国家已经开始取消航班，因为他们没有航空燃油了。他们最多还能撑两到三周，之后亚洲大部分地区都会陷入燃油短缺。但别忘了，玛格丽特。飞机从美国起飞时，没办法携带航空燃油。政府一直在说“我们美国国内燃油储备充足”，这当然没错，但如果飞机降落在另一端的国家却找不到航空燃油，那会怎么样？结果就是，美国民众已经开始感受到燃油附加费的上涨，而在阵亡将士纪念日夏季假期到来之际，机票价格将会变得非常昂贵。当全球其他地区的航空燃油价格上涨时，美国国内的油价也会随之上涨。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我们已经看到精神航空公司因这一问题陷入困境，面临破产。接下来我想问问你在中东问题上的经验。2024年7月，美国国务卿布林肯曾称，伊朗距离拥有足够的高浓缩铀 breakout 能力仅差一到两周，如果伊朗决意制造核武器的话。当时拜登政府曾进行过间接谈判，但最终毫无进展。那么当特朗普总统辩称他做到了其他总统都做不到的事情时，这仅仅是因为之前的遗留问题落到了他的任期内吗？
霍赫斯坦： 我认为这其中有一定的道理，这也是为什么我支持特朗普总统在6月采取空袭行动——在拜登政府内部，我们曾认为如果特朗普获得连任，我们可能也不得不采取同样的行动。我们当时预计，2025年春夏之际，我们可能也会陷入同样的境地。我们确实进行过兵棋推演，也针对相关行动进行过演练，因为在我们的任期内，这也有可能成为必须面对的情况。但特朗普说过，我们已经摧毁了伊朗的核计划。问题的关键不在于他6月采取的行动，我们目前正在进行的这场战争，并没有攻击伊朗的核设施，再次强调，这和核问题无关。所以现在的问题变成了：你还能和伊朗达成协议吗？目前双方的极端立场差距依然很大，尽管有言论称我们“几乎达成协议”或者“已经达成协议”，否则就会对伊朗发动猛烈空袭。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 没错，而且谁也不知道伊朗方面会有哪些人出席谈判。我觉得有意思的是，美国大使也承认了这一点。
霍赫斯坦： 听着，玛格丽特，当谈判只是松散进行的时候——比如仅通过电话沟通，没有正式的书面文件——就会出现这样的情况：伊朗方面称黎巴嫩已经被纳入谈判议题，而美国方面则表示“不，并没有这回事”。伊朗方面称他们正在开放霍尔木兹海峡，因为海峡已经完全畅通，而美国方面则回应“不，封锁依然存在”。如果没有书面协议，也没有严肃认真的谈判，而且我们只是为了安抚市场而试图快速达成协议，那么就会出现这类误解，而现在我们的处境比之前更糟。这是一个非常严肃的问题，我认为核谈判不应该仅仅用三天时间就能完成，这真的至关重要。但如果霍尔木兹海峡不能尽快开放，伊朗所拥有的筹码——我担心的是，无论这场战争结果如何，伊朗现在都拥有了一个此前从未实际拥有过的王牌。从理论上讲，我们早就知道伊朗可以封锁霍尔木兹海峡，但他们从未真正这么做过。而现在，在可预见的未来，他们已经拥有了这张针对美国及其邻国的王牌。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 你认为特朗普总统为什么没有派遣他的最高外交官和国家安全顾问？为什么我们看不到国务卿鲁宾诺牵头处理这件事？
霍赫斯坦： 这是一个谜团，我想该地区和美国国内的很多人都在问，为什么这件事不是由同时身兼国务卿和国家安全顾问的人来主导。也许这位国务卿并不认为当前的处理方式是正确的。我不清楚具体情况，你如果能联系到他并提出这个问题，可以直接问问他。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我们很希望他能来我们节目做客。
霍赫斯坦： 我相信你们也这么想。但这确实是个谜。听着，美国副总统——
玛格丽特·布伦南： ——但你在前往谈判桌前的时候有没有想过：副总统出面很重要，因为前两次维特科夫和库什纳带领伊朗代表团谈判时，谈判都破裂了，实际上最终还引发了空袭。所以你需要一个前两次谈判失败时不在场的人，对吗？
霍赫斯坦： 而且你需要一个级别足够高、能代表总统发言的人。所以我认为让副总统或者其他高层人员出面非常重要。如果我们能先进行预备会谈，在谈判陷入僵局时让副总统压轴出场，那会是很好的做法。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 我想接着谈谈黎巴嫩问题。你在2024年促成了黎巴嫩停火协议，就在过去的周五，我们看到总统宣布了为期10天的停火，以暂停真主党和以色列之间的战斗，这其实与他希望最终与伊朗达成的大协议息息相关。你如何看待这次停火？
霍赫斯坦： 有几点需要说明。首先，我很高兴战火得以暂停，哪怕只是停火一段时间。但令人担忧的是，这次停火被视为伊朗通过坚持要求黎巴嫩先停火，才会前往巴基斯坦参加谈判而促成的。这是一场灾难，因为我们一直强调的一点是：伊朗并不控制黎巴嫩，黎巴嫩的事务根本不关他们的事。真主党在过去几年的冲突中已经暴露了真面目，他们根本不是所谓的黎巴嫩战斗组织或恐怖组织，而是他们自己声称的“奉伊朗之命行事”的力量。所以让伊朗来 dictate 停火条款并不是一件好事。不过，以色列方面哪怕是在大使级别上进行直接会谈，也是一个好的进展。大多数黎巴嫩民众都希望看到持久停火，哪怕他们并不希望达成和平协议。他们希望看到停火协议，希望看到冲突结束，但我们必须在这里付出严肃的努力。现在有一个绝佳的机会窗口，如果以色列占领黎巴嫩大片地区以建立缓冲区，那么这个机会窗口就会消失。那样做行不通，因为最终这会帮助真主党重新站稳政治脚跟，强化他们的叙事。所以我们必须坐到谈判桌前，达成一项协议，确保以色列从黎巴嫩撤军，停止战斗，并向黎巴嫩提供实际援助，帮助他们解除真主党的武装。黎巴嫩政府自己做不到这一点。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 这正是我之前采访沃尔茨大使时问到的问题：他们能做到吗？而且需要明确的是，以色列方面不仅表示会留在黎巴嫩南部，还打算夺取他们在阿萨德倒台后从叙利亚占领的部分领土。所以这确实需要进行严肃的谈判。
霍赫斯坦： 这对以色列来说是一次战术上的胜利，但又会再次导致他们过度扩张，最终让他们失去更多地盘。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 作为一名民主党人，我想问问你上周参议院的那场非同寻常的投票。40名参议院民主党人试图阻止美国向以色列出售武器，这加剧了我们看到的两党之间日益加深的裂痕。你认为民主党人会不会为这次打破盟友关系的举动感到后悔？
霍赫斯坦： 我希望这不会造成盟友关系的破裂。我认为这实际上表明，在过去几年里，内塔尼亚胡总理牺牲了以色列在美国的利益。以色列拥有的最重要的资产不是其军事力量或情报能力，而是与美国的特殊关系——这种关系几十年来一直是两党共同支持的。他破坏了这一点，因为他不仅决定加入共和党，还成了唐纳德·特朗普的附庸。所以现在每个民主党人都会认为，如果你支持特朗普，那很好；如果我们反特朗普，那实际上我们就是反对你。我认为这在很大程度上与本雅明·内塔尼亚胡及其极端右翼政府有关，而不是与以色列有关。你看，以色列有一半的选民都在反对内塔尼亚胡。所以我认为民主党人应该站在以色列一边，而不是站在内塔尼亚胡一边。但我认为上周的这场投票给了我们一个非常重要的警醒。
玛格丽特·布伦南： 这是一场意义重大的投票。阿莫斯，感谢你的见解。
Transcript: Amos Hochstein on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” April 19, 2026
2026-04-19T12:48:00-0400 / CBS News
The following is the transcript of the interview with Amos Hochstein, Biden administration senior energy adviser and Middle East negotiator, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on April 19, 2026.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re joined now by Amos Hochstein. He was a former Biden White House senior energy advisor and Middle East negotiator, and he’s now managing partner at the investment firm TWG global. Good to have you back here.
AMOS HOCHSTEIN, MANAGING PARTNER, TWG GLOBAL, FORMER SENIOR ENERGY ADVISER TO PRESIDENT BIDEN: It’s great to be here.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So President Trump said current gas prices are not very high, but regular gas costs are averaged like $4.05 a gallon. Last time we saw that was under the Biden administration when Russia invaded Ukraine. So if you were advising President Trump today, how do you make sure this spike isn’t long lasting?
HOCHSTEIN: Well, we’re over $4 now, because we have a real disruption. In the Russia invasion of Ukraine, we had a concern of a disruption that never actually happened, and it went all the way up to $5. For the President right now, any continued duration of closure of the Straits of Hormuz will have to have a spike in prices. We’re at a- when you have an energy crisis like the Strait of Hormuz. It’s very slow moving, and then it’s like falling off a cliff, because when you close a strait, the world still has all the tankers that were on the water before, and that take- could take 25,30 days to get to their destination. But right now, there are no tankers on the road, on the- on the seas to Asia and to Europe. So we’re getting to the point now where certain countries no longer have any fuel, no longer have jet fuel. Now those are poor countries, and now middle income countries, but that eventually comes to the U.S. So he’s got a couple of weeks before this can go much higher.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But he’s got to get a deal quickly, in other words.
HOCHSTEIN: He’s got to get a deal quickly.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So, because we are seeing all these economies get hit. I mean, in Europe, they’re saying jet fuel is only a few weeks- there’s only six weeks left or so. Secretary Bessent said he expects a price drop sometime between June and September. Is that realistic?
HOCHSTEIN: I think what- right now, what they’re doing in the administration is saying things further out to say, Okay, we’ll deal with that in June. If we get to June, prices are high, we’ll say it’s August to November.
MARGARET BRENNAN: They’re trying to talk the markets down.
HOCHSTEIN: They’re talking the markets down as if the straits are closed- you talked about Europe. Certain Asian countries are already canceling flights. They don’t have any jet fuel. They’re running out and probably two to three weeks at most, before large parts of Asia. But remember Margaret. When a plane leaves the United States, they can’t take jet fuel with them. The administration has been saying, we have plenty in the U.S., great. But if you leave the U.S. and there is no jet fuel on the other side. So what happens is the fuel surcharges that Americans are going to see, that are already starting to see, and ahead of Memorial Day in the summer, tickets are going to be very expensive. When jet fuel is expensive in the rest of the world. It is also expensive here.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we saw Spirit Airlines really struggling under that with the bankruptcy issue. Let me ask you about your Mideast experience here. In July 2024 Secretary Blinken claimed Iran was one or two weeks away from having enough fissile material breakout capacity to eventually make a weapon if Iran had decided to do so. There were indirect negotiations that the Biden administration did, but it went nowhere. So when President Trump argues that he did, when no other president would, is it just simply that the bill was coming due and it fell on his watch?
HOCHSTEIN: I do think there’s a certain element to that, and that’s why I was supportive of President Trump joining in in June to take the strikes that we had thought internally in the Biden administration, we may have to take if there was a second term. We thought that the spring, summer of 2025 was probably, we may have to be there in the same place. And we did, we did war games. We did some practice runs on what it would look like to look into it, because that may have had to happen under our watch as well. But we- he said, we obliterated their nuclear program. The question then is not about what he did in June, this war we were in now, did not attack the nuclear facilities, again. This was not about the nuclear, so the question now becomes, can you do a deal with the Iranians? And the maximalist positions that both sides have are right now very far apart, despite all the rhetoric that we’re we’re almost there, or we are there, but if we’re not there, we’ll bomb the hell out of them.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right, or who knows who’s going to show up or not show up from the Iranian side to negotiate with. I thought that was interesting, that the ambassador acknowledged that.
HOCHSTEIN: Well, look, Margaret, when you have a negotiation that’s being done loosely, right? Phone calls and no real paper, you get to a point where Iran says Lebanon was included. The U.S. says, no, it wasn’t. The Iranians say we’re opening the straits because it’s completely open, and the Americans say, no, the blockade is staying. There’s no- if there’s no paper, no serious negotiation on this, and we’re trying to do it really quickly to assuage markets. Then you get to these misunderstandings, and now we’re in a worse position. This is a very serious issue, and I think it shouldn’t take just three days to do a nuclear deal. It’s really, really critical. But if the straits are not opened soon, the leverage that they have, and my concern is, no matter how the war ends, the Iranians now have a card they never had before in practice. In theory, we knew they can close the straits, but they never did, and now, for the foreseeable future, they have this card against us and against their neighbors.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Why do you think President Trump isn’t deploying his top diplomat and his national security advisor? Why aren’t we seeing Secretary of State Rubio leading on this?
HOCHSTEIN: That’s a mystery that I think many in the region and around the United States are asking, why is this not being run by the Secretary of State who’s also his national security advisor. Maybe the secretary of state doesn’t believe that this is the right approach. I don’t know you. You have to ask him if you can get him to answer that question.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We would love for him to join us.
HOCHSTEIN: I’m sure you would. But that’s- that’s a real mystery. Look, the Vice President of the United States–
MARGARET BRENNAN: –But does it show you know when you’re going to the negotiating table? The Vice President going is important because the last two times Witkoff and Kushner showed up with the Iranian delegation, the talks fell apart. In fact, they ended in bombing. So you need someone who wasn’t there the last two times it failed, right?
HOCHSTEIN: And you need someone who is senior enough that the Iranians believe speaks for the President. So I think that it’s important that the Vice President or someone go. I think it would have been great if we can get to a point where you have preparatory talks, and you send the vice president at the end of the process, in order to break the log jam.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to pick up on Lebanon, you brokered that 2024 ceasefire in Lebanon on Friday this past week, we saw the President announce 10 days of pause to halt the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel, which is basically linked to the big deal he really wants to get to with Iran. What do you make of this truce?
HOCHSTEIN: So a few things. One, I’m glad to see that the fire is halted, even if it’s a pause. The worrisome part is that it was seen as a ceasefire that was brokered by Iran by insisting on a Lebanese ceasefire before they would show up to talks in Pakistan. That’s a disaster, because the one thing we have always been emphasizing, Iran does not control Lebanon. It is none of their business what happens in Lebanon. Hezbollah has been unmasked in this conflict over the last couple of years as not really a Lebanese fighting organization, or terrorist organization, as they claim. But rather they said, we are doing this at the behest of the Iranians. And so allowing the Iranians to dictate terms is not a good thing. However, direct talks between Israel, even at the lower level, at the ambassador level, is a good development. Most of the Lebanese people want to see a lasting ceasefire, even if they don’t want to see a peace agreement. They want to see agreement, they want to see end of conflict, but we have to have a serious effort here. There’s such a great moment of opportunity. It will not be a moment of opportunity if Israel is occupying a significant part of Lebanon to re-establish a buffer zone. That won’t work, because ultimately that will help Hezbollah reestablish its political footing and their narrative. So we have to get to the table, create a- make sure Israel withdraws from Lebanon, stop the fighting and give the actual help to Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. They cannot do it on their own.
MARGARET BRENNAN: This is what I asked Ambassador Waltz on that, can they do that. And to be clear, the Israelis have said not only that they’re going to stay in southern Lebanon, but also take some of the territory that they had seized after Assad fell in Syria. So it’s is serious negotiation that has to take place.
HOCHSTEIN: This is a tactical victory for Israel that will lead, once again, an overreach, that will lead them to lose more ground.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to ask you, as a Democrat, there was this extraordinary vote this past week in the Senate. Forty Senate Democrats tried to block a U.S. weapons sale to Israel, and that adds to this growing rift we have seen between your party and Benjamin Netanyahu. Do you think Democrats are going to come to regret this break in the alliance?
HOCHSTEIN: So I hope that it’s not a break in the alliance. I think this, what it really demonstrates is for the last several years, Prime Minister Netanyahu has sacrificed Israel’s interest in the United States. The most important asset the Israel has is not its military or its intelligence. It’s the relation, it’s the special relationship with the United States that has been bipartisan for so many decades. He has destroyed that because he has decided to become not just part of the Republican Party, but he’s decided to become just an appendage of Donald Trump. And so every Democrat now sees, if you want to be Trump, great, if we’re anti-Trump, then by de facto, we are against you. I think this is a lot to do with Bibi Netanyahu and his extremist right-wing government, and not to do with Israel. Look, you have half of Israel is voting against Bibi. So I think this- Democrats should be aligning with Israel, not with Bibi. But I think this is a very big wake up call this week, that vote.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Significant vote. Amos, thank you for your insights.