作者：阿莱特·桑斯 | 1小时59分钟前 | 发布于 2026年2月18日，美国东部时间凌晨5:00
在德克萨斯州，下月举行的两场美国参议院初选已成为两党政治能量走向的早期风向标，并引发了一场激烈辩论：在这个长期稳固的共和党州，11月的选举需要怎样的条件才能获胜。
早期投票现已启动，这场备受关注且日益烧钱的初选结果将决定民主党和共和党如何看待德克萨斯州大选的潜在竞争性。共和党希望在参议院维持53席的多数优势。
首先，两党需选出候选人。共和党方面展开了一场三方混战：一位寻求政治生存的现任参议员、一位在一系列丑闻中逆势而上的州检察长，以及一位推动代际变革的鲜为人知的美国众议员。笼罩在共和党这场对决之上的是总统唐纳德·特朗普，尽管党内高层恳求，但他仍未对连任四届的参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）表示支持。
参议员约翰·科宁于2026年2月17日在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的竞选活动中发表讲话。
Eric Gay/AP
与此同时，民主党角逐的是两位德克萨斯州政治新星——两人均展示出庞大的数字影响力，但对如何在这个自1994年以来没有民主党人赢得全州选举的极保守州获胜，却提出了截然不同的策略。
周二早期投票启动时，两党初选中的分歧已然显现。科宁在奥斯汀一家墨西哥餐厅竞选时警告称，如果对手——州检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）——获得共和党提名，后果将不堪设想。
“我们将在选举日遭遇大屠杀，”科宁说，“如果肯·帕克斯顿出现在选票首位，我们将面临失去参议院席位、众议院多数席位的风险，并且会对所有候选人造成打击。”
帕克斯顿的选举潜力问题贯穿整个初选过程，共和党高层担忧他的政治、法律和个人包袱可能危及参议院席位。一些资深共和党人担心，如果帕克斯顿成为候选人，共和党需花费2亿美元来捍卫该席位。
尽管共和党存在疑虑，帕克斯顿仍获得了总统“MAGA”（让美国再次伟大）支持者的持续支持。他赢得了有影响力的保守派非营利组织“转折点美国”（Turning Point USA）的分支机构“转折点行动”（Turning Point Action）的背书，该组织由已故政治活动家查理·柯克（Charlie Kirk）创立。
德克萨斯州参议院初选中的公开民调有限，但休斯顿大学霍比学院最近的一项民调显示，帕克斯顿在可能参加共和党初选的选民中以38%的支持率领先，科宁和众议员韦斯利·亨特（Wesley Hunt）分别以31%和17%紧随其后，12%的选民仍未决定。
德克萨斯州共和党众议员、美国参议院候选人韦斯利·亨特于2026年2月17日在德克萨斯州汤博尔桑德伍德庄园的早期投票启动活动中发言。
Mark Felix/Bloomberg/Getty Images
“他染上了华盛顿的思维模式，掉进了华盛顿的泥潭，他不属于我们中的任何一个人，”帕克斯顿周二在德克萨斯州艾伦市竞选时这样评价科宁，“无论如何，是时候让约翰·科宁回家了，两周后我们会击败他。”
来自休斯顿的亨特试图与科宁形成代际对比，甚至在竞选结束广告中突出了这种分歧。
“2004年我从西点军校毕业并参军，那时约翰·科宁已经当了20年政客，”亨特在早期投票开始时发布的广告中说。
科宁及其盟友最近几周批评亨特在美国众议院中缺席投票，而众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson）领导的多数派极为微弱。
共和党候选人的分裂局面可能导致没有候选人获得50%的基准票以避免5月底前两名候选人进行决选，这将进一步消耗秋季竞选的宝贵资源。
但最大的变数仍是特朗普，他至今未表态支持任何候选人。
“我还没决定那场竞选中支持谁，还有很长的路要走，”特朗普周一告诉记者，“他们都支持我，都很优秀，你得选一个。所以我们拭目以待，但我支持所有三位候选人。”
民主党内的不同策略
帕克斯顿若成为共和党候选人，这让民主党燃起了11月翻转参议院席位的希望。但民主党内部也在为谁最有能力领导对抗最终共和党候选人的斗争而激烈角逐。
“我知道我是个威胁，我只需要人们决定今天来投票给我这个他们知道的斗士，”美国众议员贾丝明·克罗基特（Jasmine Crockett）周二在达拉斯图书馆外投票时对记者说。
休斯顿大学霍比学院最近的民调显示，在可能参加民主党初选的选民中，克罗基特以47%领先于对手——州议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科（James Talarico）的39%，12%的选民仍未决定。
德克萨斯州众议员、民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉利科于2026年2月17日在德克萨斯州奥斯汀的竞选活动中对支持者讲话。
Eric Gay/AP
克罗基特是一名前律师，于去年12月参选，在国会期间迅速崛起。她与共和党议员和官员的交锋常引发病毒式传播，在全国舞台上提升了知名度。
她的竞选核心论点之一是重新激活民主党基础，包括2024年大选缺席的少数族裔选民。她声称自己在联邦层面的立法经验使她脱颖而出，而塔拉利科是一名长老会神学家和前教师，目前在德克萨斯州议会任职。
但党内一些人质疑她在大选中的可行性。上月“拉斯文化人”播客（Las Culturistas）上，喜剧演员马特·罗杰斯（Matt Rogers）和鲍文·杨（Bowen Yang）呼吁观众不要向她的竞选捐款，暗示她无法赢得大选（两人随后道歉）。
“我厌倦了人们问我是否有选举能力，事实是这不过是狗哨子（暗示种族或政治歧视性话术），”克罗基特周二对记者表示，“有人试图把我贬低成一个只会吵架的 meme 人物，我告诉大家去做研究，事实是我一直在实干。”
2026年2月17日，参议院初选候选人众议员贾丝明·克罗基特在达拉斯早期投票时发言。
LM Otero/AP
塔拉利科的支持度也通过社交媒体上升，包括强调其宗教信仰。他的竞选策略核心是寻找与选民（包括独立人士和共和党人）的共同点。
“我们走遍全州，与所有人交谈，不放弃任何选民，不放弃任何社区，因为这是我们11月赢得该州的唯一方式，”塔拉利科周二在奥斯汀集会上说，当时他开始了14城巡回竞选活动。
早期投票启动后，塔拉利科因《深夜秀》主持人斯蒂芬·科尔伯特（Stephen Colbert）称哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）律师以潜在联邦通信委员会（FCC）问题为由禁止其采访而迅速走红。尽管未在电视上播出，但这段深夜访谈在YouTube上发布后，截至周四晚已获得超过270万次观看。
塔拉利科借此机会在社交媒体上表示：“我认为唐纳德·特朗普担心我们即将翻转德克萨斯州。” CBS随后回应称，“深夜秀”只是“收到法律指导”，而非被“禁止”播出访谈。
巨额资金投入
两党在早期投票前的竞选广告支出均飙升。
2026年2月16日，在德克萨斯州达拉斯的竞选活动中，罗杰·菲利普斯（左）身着美国国旗风格服装聆听美国众议员韦斯利·亨特发言。
Julio Cortez/AP
据追踪机构AdImpact数据，总广告支出和预订量已达9280万美元，使德克萨斯州参议院初选成为史上第二昂贵的参议院初选（2022年亚利桑那州参议院初选以1.095亿美元创纪录，当时是共和党激烈竞争击败民主党候选人马克·凯利）。
共和党方面，支持科宁的广告支出高达5890万美元，亨特获得1080万美元支持，而帕克斯顿仅获230万美元。
民主党方面，支持塔拉利科的支出为1530万美元，克罗基特获得280万美元支持。
CNN的大卫·赖特对此报道有贡献。
Electability and enthusiasm: How the Texas Senate primaries are testing the direction of both parties
By Arlette Saenz | 1 hr 59 min ago | PUBLISHED Feb 18, 2026, 5:00 AM ET
In Texas, a pair of US Senate primaries set for next month have emerged as an early gauge of where the energy is in both political parties and sparked a sharp debate over what it will take to win the reliably Republican state in November.
With early voting now underway, the results of the closely watched and increasingly expensive primaries stand to shape how Democrats and Republicans view the potential competitiveness of the general election contest in Texas as the GOP seeks to maintain control of its 53-seat majority in the chamber.
First, the party must select a nominee. Republicans are engaged in a three-way battle between an incumbent senator fighting for political survival, a state attorney general who’s defied odds amid a series of scandals, and a lesser-known US congressman pushing for generational change. Looming over the GOP face-off is President Donald Trump, who has refrained from offering an endorsement of four-term Sen. John Cornyn despite pleas from senior leaders in his party.
Sen. John Cornyn speaks during a campaign stop in Austin, Texas, on February 17, 2026.
Eric Gay/AP
Meanwhile, the Democratic contest features two rising stars in Texas politics – both showcasing vast digital reach but offering differing theories on how the party can win in a deeply conservative state where no Democrat has won statewide since 1994.
The fault lines in each party’s primary were on display as early voting kicked off on Tuesday. Campaigning at a Mexican restaurant in Austin, Cornyn warned of repercussions if one of his opponents – state Attorney General Ken Paxton – wins the Republican nomination.
“We will have an election day massacre,” said Cornyn. “If Ken Paxton is at the top of the ticket, we risk losing the Senate seat, losing the majority in the House of Representatives, and it will take a toll on everybody in the ballot.”
Concerns about Paxton’s electability have run throughout the primary race with top Republicans fretting his political, legal and personal baggage could put the Senate seat in jeopardy. Some senior Republicans fear it could cost the party $200 million to defend the seat if Paxton emerges as the nominee.
Despite some GOP misgivings, Paxton has seen sustained support from elements of the president’s MAGA base. He earned the endorsement of Turning Point Action, an affiliate of the influential conservative non-profit Turning Point USA founded by the late political activist Charlie Kirk.
Public polling in the Texas Senate primaries has been limited, but a recent University of Houston Hobby School poll showed Paxton in the lead with 38% support among likely GOP primary voters, compared to 31% for Cornyn and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%. A sizable slice of voters – 12% – said they were undecided.
Rep. Wesley Hunt, a Republican from Texas and US Senate candidate, speaks during an early voting kickoff event at Sandlewood Manor in Tomball, Texas, on February 17, 2026.
Mark Felix/Bloomberg/Getty Images
“He has adopted the Washington mentality, the Washington swamp, and he is not one of us,” Paxton said of Cornyn as he campaigned in Allen, Texas Tuesday. “It is time, no matter what, for John Cornyn to come home, and we’re gonna beat him in 2 weeks.”
Hunt, a Houston-area congressman, has tried to draw a generational contrast with Cornyn, even highlighting the divide in a closing ad of his campaign.
“In 2004 I graduated from West point and joined the army. By then, John Cornyn had already been a politician for 20 years,” Hunt said in an ad released as early voting began.
Cornyn and his allies have knocked Hunt in recent weeks for missing votes in the US House where House Speaker Mike Johnson is operating with a razor-thin majority.
The split GOP field could result in no candidate is clearing the 50% benchmark to avoid a late May runoff between the top two finishers, further drawing down valuable resources for the fall campaign.
But one of the biggest wildcards remaining is Trump, who has thus far withheld an endorsement.
“I just haven’t made a decision on that race yet. It’s got a ways to go,” Trump told reporters Monday. “They’ve all supported me. They’re all good, and you’re supposed to pick one. So we’ll see what happens. But I support all three involved.”
Differing Democratic approaches
The prospect of Paxton at the top of the GOP ticket has raised the Democratic Party’s hopes about flipping the Senate seat come November. But Democrats are engaged in their own intraparty primary battle over who is best positioned to lead the charge against the eventual GOP nominee.
“I know I’m a threat. I just need to people to decide that they are going to show up today and vote for the fighter that they know that I am,” US Rep. Jasmine Crockett told reporters outside a Dallas library where she voted on Tuesday.
The recent University of Houston Hobby School poll showed Crockett running ahead of her Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, 47% to 39% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 12% saying they were still undecided.
Texas state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks to supporters during a campaign stop, in Austin, Texas, on February 17, 2026.
Eric Gay/AP
Crockett, a former attorney who entered the race in December, has risen to political prominence during her time on Capitol Hill. Her sparring moments with GOP lawmakers and officials have often gone viral, raising her profile on the national stage.
Part of her campaign argument has hinged on the ability to reenergize parts of the Democratic base, including voters of color who sat out in the 2024 election, and she’s argued her legislative experience on the federal level makes her stand apart from Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former teacher who serves in the Texas state legislature.
But some in the party have raised questions about her viability in a general election. One of the most public divides played out last month on the “Las Culturistas” podcast, where comedians Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang encouraged their audiences not to donate to her campaign, suggesting she wouldn’t win the general election contest. (The two have since apologized.)
“I am tired of people asking whether or not I am electable. The reality is that that is nothing but a dog whistle,” Crockett told reporters Tuesday. “For people to try to minimize me as if I am nothing more than a meme or somebody that can only go into clashes, I just tell you to do your research. The reality is that I’ve been getting it done.”
Primary candidate for U.S. Senate Rep. Jasmine Crockett speaks before voting early in the primary election in Dallas, on February 17, 2026.
LM Otero/AP
Talarico has also seen his following rise through social media, including by speaking about his faith. He’s centered much of his strategy around finding common ground with voters, including independents and Republicans.
“We’re going everywhere. We’re talking to everyone. We’re not writing off any voter. We’re not writing off any community because that is how we are going to win this state in November,” Talarico said Tuesday at an Austin rally as he started a 14-city tour in the lead up to primary day.
As early voting kicked off in Texas, Talarico went viral after “The Late Show” host Stephen Colbert said CBS lawyers told the show it could not air an interview with Talarico due to potential FCC concerns. While it did not run on the network, the late night sit-down was posted on YouTube, garnering more than 2.7 million views on the platform as of Thursday night.
Talarico seized on the moment, saying on social media, “I think that Donald Trump is worried that we’re about to flip Texas.” CBS later said “The Late Show” was given “legal guidance” but “was not prohibited” from broadcasting the interview.
Soaring spending
Spending on both sides has soared in the lead-up to early voting.
Roger Phillips, left, wears a United States flag inspired outfit as he listens to U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt speak at a campaign event, in Dallas, Texas, on February 16, 2026.
Julio Cortez/AP
Total ad spending and reservations have reached $92.8 million, making the Texas Senate primary the second most expensive Senate primary on record, according to the tracking firm AdImpact. (Arizona’s Senate primary in 2022 which featured a contentious GOP race to take on Democrat Mark Kelly tops the list at $109.5 million.)
The majority of Republican spending — $58.9 million — has come through groups supporting Cornyn as he’s battled to maintain his seat, according to the data. Ad spending in support of Hunt has reached $10.8 million, while for Paxton it was just $2.3 million.
On the Democratic side, spending in support of Talarico came in at $15.3 million, compared with $2.8 million backing Crockett.
CNN’s David Wright contributed to this report.
（注：此处为图片占位符，原文包含图片）