2026-03-06T11:00:34.158Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/senate-races-texas-north-carolina-2026-midterms
随着得克萨斯州和北卡罗来纳州的初选结果为民主党和共和党提供了他们备战11月中期选举八个月征程的初步线索，美国参议院控制权的争夺战已正式拉开帷幕。
民主党人从周二的结果中看到了一些令人鼓舞的迹象，显示党内活力充沛。得克萨斯州民主党初选中，中期选举年份的投票率创下了历史新高，超过230万张选票——仅次于2008年总统大选周期。
在北卡罗来纳州初选中，民主党前州长罗伊·库珀轻松锁定参议院候选人提名，获得超过75万张选票，而共和党整体候选人得票约62.5万。这些数字与CNN民调结果一致，显示尽管民主党人对党内领导层评价不佳，但他们参与中期选举的动力远高于共和党人。
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除了动力优势，民主党还从两场初选中获得了候选人明确的好处：库珀和州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科分别成为两党的提名候选人。虽然前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·惠特利赢得了北卡罗来纳州共和党参议院初选，但该党必须应对得克萨斯州现任参议员约翰·科宁和州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿之间为期12周的决选带来的额外不确定性和成本。
共和党人也在与其他挑战政治环境的迹象作斗争。最新的CNN民调显示，总统唐纳德·特朗普在独立选民中的支持率创下新低，美国公众越来越质疑他的优先事项，并对其提案能否帮助国家表示怀疑。
尽管经济和生活成本仍然是选民最关心的问题，但与伊朗的战争可能成为中期选举的导火索。根据CNN在袭击开始后不久进行的民调，近60%的美国人不赞成美国对伊朗采取军事行动。特朗普的顾问们意识到长期冲突的政治风险，这已经引发了“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）阵营内部一些声音的反对。
共和党人仍在参议院席位分配和地理优势上占优，民主党需要赢得四个席位才能获得多数席位，而他们最有机会的几个席位中，很多位于共和党占绝对优势的地区。
以下是距离选举日还有八个月时，关键参议院竞选的现状：
周二北卡罗来纳州没有出现意外，该州是本选举周期最引人注目的参议院战场之一。从得克萨斯州到国会山，共和党人正在等待特朗普决定在参议院决选中支持谁，以及何时决定——候选人需在3月18日之前从5月的选票中撤回名字。
虽然他们的对决在周二正式确定，但库珀和惠特利已经将北卡罗来纳州参议院竞选视为一场大选。
结果正如战略家们长期预期的那样。库珀作为本选举周期民主党招募的核心人物，在初选中获得了超过90%的选票。获得特朗普背书的惠特利在共和党初选中获得约65%的选票——这可能表明共和党选民在秋季竞选开始前还有很多工作要做。
北卡罗来纳州对民主党赢得多数席位的希望至关重要。民主党人认为库珀的个人形象有助于该党自2008年以来首次在这里赢得参议院席位。
反过来，惠特利则强调自己与特朗普的联系，特朗普在三次总统竞选中都赢得了北卡罗来纳州。在周二的胜选演讲中，惠特利将自己定位为“北卡罗来纳州的保守派冠军，将成为特朗普总统的盟友”。
得克萨斯州共和党决选的结果将对今年秋季的竞选方向产生重大影响，而特朗普将在其中发挥决定性作用。
在初选期间保持中立后，总统周三宣布他将“很快”支持科宁或帕克斯顿，并呼吁另一位候选人退出竞选。包括参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩在内的高级共和党人敦促特朗普支持科宁，一些人认为帕克斯顿长期的争议历史可能会危及他们在11月保住该席位的机会。
如果特朗普支持科宁，也不能保证深受MAGA支持者欢迎的帕克斯顿会退出竞选。“不，我会留在这场竞选中，”帕克斯顿本周告诉《真实美国之声》，“我欠得克萨斯州人民一个交代。”
在社交媒体的后续帖子中，帕克斯顿表示，如果参议院共和党领袖同意废除阻挠议事规则并通过《SAVE法案》（一项要求选民登记时提供公民身份证明的选举法案），他“会考虑退出”参议院竞选。
决选的结果可能对参议院席位分配和资源分配产生得克萨斯州规模的影响。共和党人认为，要在大选中支持帕克斯顿，需要大幅增加额外支出。
塔拉利科的初选胜利和他“爱的政治”信息提升了民主党人在得克萨斯州翻转参议院席位的希望——自1994年以来民主党在该州从未赢得过全州性选举——尤其是在与帕克斯顿的对决中。在民主党初选中输给塔拉利科后，美国众议员贾丝明·克罗克特迅速呼吁她的支持者团结在这位前对手周围，而塔拉利科在该州拉丁裔选民占多数的地区表现出色。
尽管共和党党内竞选仍未尘埃落定，共和党人迅速行动试图给塔拉利科贴上标签，在网上传播他们认为在11月可能引起保守派选民共鸣的片段。
四个州是争夺参议院多数席位的核心：北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州、缅因州和密歇根州。
为了控制参议院，民主党几乎肯定必须翻转缅因州和北卡罗来纳州，同时保住佐治亚州和密歇根州的席位。任何一个州的失利都会使该党的选举之路更加艰难。
寻求连任的唯一民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫，所在州（佐治亚州）是特朗普在2024年赢得的州，他坐拥巨额竞选资金，而共和党人仍在争夺在11月与他对决的机会。
在共和党三人初选中——美国众议员巴迪·卡特、迈克·柯林斯和田纳西大学前橄榄球教练德里克·杜利——目前还没有明确的领先者。虽然特朗普尚未在此竞选中背书，但州长布莱恩·肯普支持杜利。
领导全国共和党参议院委员会的南卡罗来纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特敦促佐治亚州领导人团结在单一候选人周围。“我们需要尽快将候选人缩小到一个人，”斯科特告诉《华盛顿 examiner》，“如果我们能做到这一点，我们就有机会在那里成功。但只要有三个候选人，我们就会更难。”
分裂的候选人阵容和特朗普的缺席增加了选举结果在5月19日之前无法确定的可能性。如果共和党初选中没有候选人获得50%以上的多数票，选举将进入6月决选，这将延长党内斗争，为奥索夫在11月的竞选铺平更清晰的道路。
缅因州
曾担任副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年赢得的缅因州，唯一一位寻求连任的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯，上个月正式宣布竞选时，展示了一双新百伦运动鞋。“这对2026年来说很完美，因为我要参选了，”她在视频中说。
但她的民主党对手是谁仍然悬而未决。进步派生蚝养殖户格雷厄姆·普拉特纳和两任州长珍妮特·米尔斯之间的民主党初选仍需三个月才能决出胜负。
民调显示普拉特纳目前领先——新罕布什尔大学最近的一项调查显示，他领先米尔斯30多个百分点，而米尔斯受到包括参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默在内的党内建制派的支持。这表明民主党初选选民到目前为止尚未被普拉特纳竞选活动中的争议所影响，包括他过去的冒犯性在线帖子和一个类似纳粹标志的纹身。
伊朗战争的动态可能成为这场竞选的一个因素，特别是如果美国军事行动延长的话。民主党人抓住了柯林斯投票反对一项战争权力决议的行为，该决议旨在要求总统在未来对伊朗采取军事行动前获得国会批准。
密歇根州的民主党候选人阵容仍然分裂，关键战场州的提名竞赛还有五个月才结束。
共和党人认为，民主党方面的党内斗争延长可能有利于前共和党国会议员迈克·罗杰斯，他在2024年参议院竞选中输给了埃莉萨·斯洛特金参议员。
为接替退休的参议员加里·彼得斯而竞选的民主党候选人包括：底特律卫生局前执行董事、进步派阿卜杜勒·艾尔赛义德；州参议员马洛里·麦克莫罗；以及美国众议员海莉·史蒂文斯，她是党内建制派青睐的温和派。
初选候选人之间的一些分歧开始显现。在上个月由汽车工人联合会主办的论坛上，三位候选人就企业政治行动委员会（PAC）在选举中的作用提出了不同看法。
艾尔赛义德和麦克莫罗均表示，他们的竞选活动不接受企业PAC的捐款。史蒂文斯没有直接回答问题，而是呼吁废除“公民联合组织”（Citizens United）——这是美国最高法院的一项裁决，导致大量外部资金涌入选举政治。麦克莫罗抓住史蒂文斯的回应，称“我们需要知道我们的下一位参议员为谁工作。”
除了四个主要战场州外，民主党和共和党还在关注其他反对党占优的州。
民主党希望他们在阿拉斯加州选定的候选人能够帮助削弱共和党在参议院的多数地位。
前美国众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）是一位以“鱼、家庭和自由”为竞选口号的温和派，被民主党领导层招募参与竞选。她有全州范围内获胜的历史，尽管在2024年众议院竞选中失利。
佩尔托拉将面临严峻挑战，她将挑战两任共和党参议员丹·沙利文所在的州，而特朗普在该州三次总统竞选中均以两位数优势获胜。温和派共和党参议员莉萨·穆尔科斯基虽然过去曾支持佩尔托拉的众议院竞选，但这次支持沙利文的连任。
俄亥俄州近年来倾向共和党，但民主党人认为，一位强有力的候选人可以帮助他们扩大这里的竞选版图。
2024年输给伯尼·桑德斯的前参议员谢尔罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）再次挑战被任命填补副总统JD·万斯空缺的参议员乔恩·哈斯特德（Jon Husted）。
布朗并不陌生于激烈的竞选，长期以来他一直支持如今在民主党中占据主导地位的经济民粹主义。共和党人认为，该州在特朗普时代的右倾趋势为哈斯特德争取六年任期提供了结构性优势。
民主党人在这个特朗普三次总统竞选均以绝对优势获胜的州面临艰难挑战，但他们希望总统支持率的下降，特别是他对关税的处理方式，能对他们有利。
美国众议员阿什利·辛森（Ashley Hinson）获得特朗普在共和党初选中的背书，试图接替退休的参议员乔尼·恩斯特（Joni Ernst）。
上个月，海军陆战队退伍军人内森·赛奇（Nathan Sage）退出竞选并支持州众议员乔什·图雷克（Josh Turek）后，民主党候选人阵容缩小。图雷克是两次残奥会金牌得主，将与州参议员扎克·沃尔什（Zach Wahls）对决，后者是进步派，2011年曾在爱荷华州议会发表支持婚姻平等的演讲而受到全国关注。
共和党人希望新罕布什尔州的一位知名人物能为他们在接替退休民主党参议员珍妮特·沙欣的竞选中创造机会。
民主党人对保住该州的政治倾向和整体选举环境表示乐观。美国众议员克里斯·帕帕（Chris Pappas）是第一位代表新罕布什尔州的同性恋国会议员，被视为民主党领跑者，且在众议院竞选中赢得过艰难胜利。
但共和党人认为，前参议员约翰·E·苏努努（John E. Sununu）可能会成功卷土重来，他自2009年离职以来，其家族在新罕布什尔州政治中一直是焦点。苏努努今年早些时候在与前马萨诸塞州参议员斯科特·布朗的初选中获得特朗普背书。
共和党人认为明尼苏达州长期趋势有利于他们，但2026年在该州获胜可能因政治环境而变得困难。总统在明尼阿波利斯的移民执法行动，包括联邦特工向两名抗议者开枪致死，也成为该州的一个争议点。
民主党人有信心在明尼苏达州捍卫主场，特别是在明尼苏达州退休民主党参议员蒂娜·史密斯的继任竞选中，有深受欢迎的参议员艾米·克洛布查尔（Amy Klobuchar）竞选州长。8月的初选中，温和派众议员安吉·克雷格（Angie Craig）与进步派副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根（Peggy Flanagan）将展开意识形态对决。尽管该州在总统选举中一直支持民主党，但哈里斯在2024年仅以约4个百分点的优势赢得该州。
共和党人认为前体育解说员米歇尔·塔福亚（Michele Tafoya）是让该席位具有竞争力的最佳候选人。
Where the battle for Senate control stands after the Texas and North Carolina primaries
2026-03-06T11:00:34.158Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/senate-races-texas-north-carolina-2026-midterms
The fight for control of the US Senate is now officially underway after primaries in Texas and North Carolina delivered the first clues for Democrats and Republicans as they prepare for an eight-month march to the November midterm elections.
Democrats see some encouraging signs in Tuesday’s results about the energy in the party. Turnout in the Texas Democratic primary hit record levels for a midterm year, with more than 2.3 million ballots cast — second only to the 2008 cycle, when there was a presidential contest.
In the North Carolina primary, Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper easily clinched the Senate nomination, receiving more than 750,000 votes — compared with about 625,000 for the entire GOP field. Those numbers align with CNN polling that shows Democrats are far more motivated to vote in the midterms than Republicans, despite having dismal views of their party leaders.
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Beyond the energy edge, Democrats also stand to benefit from the clarity that came from both primaries, with Cooper and state Rep. James Talarico emerging as the party’s nominees. While former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley won the GOP Senate primary in the Tar Heel State, the party must contend with the added uncertainty and cost of a 12-week runoff in Texas between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Republicans are also grappling with other signs of a challenging political environment, with recent CNN polling showing President Donald Trump’s approval rating hitting a new low with independents as the American public increasingly questions his priorities and signals doubt that his proposals will help the country.
While the economy and cost of living remain top concerns for voters, the war with Iran could emerge as a flashpoint in the midterms. Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, according to a CNN poll fielded shortly after the start of the attacks. Trump’s advisers are mindful of the political risks of a prolonged conflict, which has already sparked some backlash from voices in the MAGA universe.
The GOP still has the Senate math and map in its favor, with Democrats needing to gain four seats to win the majority — and several of their best opportunities resting in deeply Republican turf.
Here’s a look at where the key Senate races stand eight months from Election Day:
There weren’t any surprises Tuesday in North Carolina, which is home to one of the marquee battleground Senate races of the cycle. From Texas to Capitol Hill, Republicans are waiting to see what Trump decides in the Senate runoff — and when — with a March 18 deadline for candidates to remove their names from the May ballot.
While their matchup was formally set on Tuesday, Cooper and Whatley had been treating the North Carolina Senate race like a general election contest for some time.
The results are what strategists had long expected. Cooper, a top Democratic recruit for the cycle, received more than 90% of the vote in his primary. Whatley, who is running with Trump’s endorsement, got about 65% of the vote on the Republican side — a potential sign of work to do with GOP voters heading into the fall campaign.
North Carolina is crucial to the Democratic Party’s hopes of winning the majority, and Democrats see Cooper as having a strong profile to help the party win a Senate seat here for the first time since 2008.
Whatley, in turn, is leaning in to his ties to Trump, who won North Carolina during all three of his presidential bids. In his victory speech Tuesday, Whatley pitched himself as “a conservative champion for North Carolina who will be an ally for President Trump.”
What happens with the Republican runoff in Texas stands to have a dramatic effect in shaping the direction of the race this fall. And Trump is poised to play a decisive role in steering the outcome.
After staying neutral during the primary, the president announced Wednesday he would endorse either Cornyn or Paxton “soon” and would call on the other candidate to exit the race. Top Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have urged Trump to back Cornyn, with some believing Paxton’s long history of controversies could jeopardize their chances of holding the seat in November.
If Trump throws his support behind Cornyn, there’s no guarantee Paxton — a popular figure with the MAGA base — will drop his bid. “No, I’m staying in this race,” Paxton told Real America’s Voice this week. “I owe it to the people of Texas.”
In a later post on social media, Paxton said he “would consider dropping out” of the Senate race if GOP leaders in the chamber agreed to do away with the filibuster and pass the SAVE Act, an elections bill that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, among other provisions.
How the runoff plays out could have Texas-sized implications for the Senate map and allocation of resources, with Republicans believing it would require significant additional spending to boost Paxton in a general election.
Talarico’s primary victory and his “politics of love” message are lifting the Democratic Party’s hopes of flipping Texas — where Democrats have not won statewide since 1994 — particularly in a potential matchup against Paxton. After her primary loss to Talarico, US Rep. Jasmine Crockett quickly urged her supporters to rally around her former rival, who performed well in parts of the state with large shares of Latino voters.
Even as the GOP race remains unsettled, Republicans swiftly moved to try to define Talarico, circulating clips online they believe could resonate with voters in the conservative-leaning state come November.
Four states are at the center of the battle for the Senate majority: North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Michigan.
To win control of the chamber, Democrats almost certainly must flip Maine and North Carolina while also holding on to seats in Georgia and Michigan. A loss in any of those would make the party’s path much more difficult.
Sen. Jon Ossoff, the lone Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state Trump won in 2024, is sitting on a massive war chest as the GOP continues jockeying over the chance to run against him in November.
No candidate has yet to emerge as the clear leader in the three-way GOP primary between US Rep. Buddy Carter, US Rep. Mike Collins and Derek Dooley, the former football coach at the University of Tennessee. While Trump has so far not endorsed in the contest, Gov. Brian Kemp is backing Dooley.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has urged Georgia leaders to coalesce around a single candidate. “We need to get it down to one candidate as soon as possible,” Scott told The Washington Examiner.“ And if we are able to do so, we have a chance to be successful there. But as long as we have three candidates, it’s gonna be tougher for us.”
The split field and the lack of Trump’s involvement raises the chances the race might not be settled on May 19. If no candidate clears the 50% majority threshold in the GOP primary, the contest will head to a June runoff, dragging out the intraparty fight and giving Ossoff a clearer path heading into November.
Maine
Sen. Susan Collins, the only GOP senator running in a state former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024, unboxed a pair of New Balance sneakers as she made her reelection bid official last month. “This is perfect for 2026 because I’m running,” she said in the video.
But which Democrat she will run against remains an open question. The Democratic primary between progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner and two-term Gov. Janet Mills is still three months from being decided.
Polling shows Platner currently holding an advantage — with a recent University of New Hampshire survey putting him up more than 30 points over Mills, who is favored by the party establishment, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. That suggests Democratic primary voters so far have not been swayed by the controversies surrounding Platner’s candidacy, including past offensive online posts and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol.
The dynamics of the Iran war could become a factor in this race, particularly if US military action extends for a prolonged period of time. Democrats seized on the decision by Collins to vote against a war powers resolution aimed at requiring the president seek congressional approval for future military action against the country.
The Democratic field in Michigan remains splintered with the nominating contest in the pivotal battleground state still five months away.
Republicans believe the extended intraparty fight on the Democratic side could work to the advantage of Mike Rogers, the former GOP congressman who lost a 2024 Senate bid against Sen. Elissa Slotkin.
The Democratic race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters includes Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive former executive director of the Detroit Health Department; state Sen. Mallory McMorrow; and US Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate who is seen as the favorite of the party establishment.
Some divisions within the primary field are beginning to play out. At a forum hosted by the United Auto Workers last month, the three candidates drew distinctions over the role of corporate political action committees in elections.
El-Sayed and McMorrow each said their campaigns are not accepting contributions from corporate PACs. Stevens did not directly answer the question and instead focused on calling for an end to Citizens United, a US Supreme Court decision that opened a flood of outside money into electoral politics. McMorrow seized on Stevens’ response, saying, “We need to know who our next senator is working for.”
Beyond the four main battleground states, Democrats and Republicans are also eyeing targets in states where the opposing party holds an advantage at this stage.
Democrats are hoping their chosen candidate in Alaska can help make a dent in the GOP majority in the Senate.
Former US Rep. Mary Peltola, a moderate running with a “fish, family, and freedom” message, was recruited into the race by Democratic leadership. She has a history winning statewide, though she lost her House reelection bid in 2024.
Peltola will face steep competition as she challenges two-term GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in a state where Trump won by double digits in his three presidential runs. Moderate GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has backed Sullivan’s reelection bid despite endorsing Peltola in her House races in the past.
Ohio has been trending toward Republicans in recent years, but Democrats believe a strong recruit can help them expand the map here.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024, is back for another round as he challenges Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
Brown is no stranger to competitive races and has long been aligned with the economic populism that has taken a stronger hold within the Democratic Party today. Republicans believe that the state’s shift to the right during the Trump era gives Husted a structural advantage as he seeks a full six-year term in the Senate.
Democrats face an uphill climb in this state that Trump carried by solid margins in all three of his presidential runs, but they hope the decline in the president’s approval, particularly his handling of tariffs, could work in their favor here.
US Rep. Ashley Hinson has Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary as she attempts to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst.
The Democratic field narrowed last month when Marine Corps veteran Nathan Sage dropped out of the race and backed state Rep. Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist. Turek is facing off against state Sen. Zach Wahls, a progressive who gained national attention in 2011 when he addressed the Iowa House of Representatives, speaking in defense of marriage equality and about being raised by his two mothers.
Republicans are hoping a familiar name in New Hampshire will give them an opening in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Democrats are optimistic they will hold onto the state given its political lean and the broader electoral environment. US Rep. Chris Pappas, who is the first gay person to represent New Hampshire in Congress, is considered the Democratic frontrunner and has won tough races for his House seat.
But Republicans think a comeback bid by former Sen. John E. Sununu, who has been out of office since 2009 and whose family has been a fixture in Granite State politics for decades, could be successful. Sununu earned Trump’s endorsement earlier this year in the primary against former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.
Republicans see Minnesota as trending in their direction long-term. But the political environment might make winning there in 2026 difficult. The president’s immigration enforcement actions in Minneapolis, including the fatal shootings of two protesters by federal agents, also have emerged as a flashpoint in the state.
Democrats are confident they can defend home turf in Minnesota in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, especially with Sen. Amy Klobuchar — a popular figure in the state — running for governor. The August primary features an ideological clash between moderate Rep. Angie Craig and progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. While the state has consistently backed Democrats in presidential elections, Harris only carried it by about 4 points in 2024.
Republicans see former sportscaster Michele Tafoya as the best candidate to potentially make the seat competitive.
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