2026-09-15T04:01:29.725Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/15/politics/trump-republican-midterm-chances
随着中期选举临近，共和党候选人需要的是：
- 不会重创民众的汽油价格。
- 目前重创农场主、推高食品价格的创纪录柴油成本得以缓解。
- 通胀有所回落会是件好事——还有那场 supposedly 六个月前就打赢的战争，最终能画上句号吗？
或许一位不受欢迎的总统可以就此一次退居聚光灯之外，让候选人能将注意力集中在当地民主党对手身上，而不会因自身问题失去选民支持。此外，唐纳德·特朗普或许也该对那些因食品价格高企和人工智能末日警告感到恐慌的选民多表现出一丝共情。
但共和党候选人实际要面对的却是：
- 汽油均价为每加仑4.31美元。（但如果你开的是耗油的柴油车，你每加仑要付6.20美元——根据美国汽车协会和政府数据，这比特朗普2025年1月就职时的约3.60美元上涨了不少。）
- 8月批发通胀和消费者价格指数均出现上涨。
- 尽管白宫有不同说法，但多数食品价格并未下跌。
- 一场新的对加拿大贸易战还可能让消费者再添税负。
特朗普无法给出他那极不受欢迎的对伊朗战争何时结束的日期。而那些质疑他在中东泥潭中判断力的选民，可能同样会被他的表态吓到：他称民众对人工智能的担忧是一场“骗局”，还说美国有一位“强大且睿智（高智商！）的总统”，一切都会好起来。
共和党本可拥有的有利政治环境，与他们当前深陷的困境之间的差距，恰恰说明了这场选举的走向：民主党有望拿下众议院，并且在特朗普2024年胜选的参议院选区也意外地具有竞争力。
显而易见，共和党面临的逆风很大程度上源于这位总统的选择、直觉、个人执念，以及他拒绝正视选民的看法——他口中的经济“黄金时代”不过是海市蜃楼。就算特朗普是故意选择最可能损害本党利益的道路，结果也不会比现在更糟。
这场“无处不在的特朗普”竞选策略也给了民主党喘息之机。反对党自2024年大选以来一直在政治上跌跌撞撞，几乎毫无起色。几乎没有迹象表明他们解决了此前让特朗普重新掌权的信息传递和政策方面的诸多问题。近期民调显示，民主党的受欢迎程度与共和党不相上下。全程围绕特朗普展开的竞选看起来傲慢自满，迄今为止在民主党重塑形象方面几乎毫无进展。
但民主党说不定还是能成功。
特朗普如何束缚共和党候选人手脚
尽管特朗普坚称显示他不受欢迎的民调数据是错误的，但他的无处不在确实给共和党候选人带来了切实的负面影响。
密歇根州共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯指责其民主党对手、穆斯林候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德是恐怖分子的同伙，还称其与有争议的网络网红哈桑·皮克尔过从甚密。罗杰斯辩称，埃尔赛义德更关心代表巴勒斯坦人，而非密歇根州这个“狼獾之州”。
但特朗普反倒给了埃尔赛义德一个顺势回归主流的契机。埃尔赛义德周日在哥伦比亚广播公司《面对全国》节目中回应关于皮克尔的问题时表示：“他们想把这场竞选扯到加州的一名主播身上，但我想谈的是密歇根民众的生活负担问题，他们无话可说，因为正是他们的政策推高了物价。”
埃尔赛义德还驳斥了众议院议长迈克·约翰逊所称的进步派是“大门内的野蛮人”的说法，回应道：“白宫里的才是野蛮人。”
特朗普的阴影同样笼罩着堪萨斯州。没人料到共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔会面临一场激烈的连任竞选，但他的民主党对手亚当·汉密尔顿将他与特朗普的不受欢迎度绑定在一起。汉密尔顿在周六的竞选辩论中表示：“勇气就是敢于站出来反对你的总统和你的政党，说‘这正在伤害国内的民众’。”
柴油价格推高了农场主的运营成本，让马歇尔的连任希望蒙上阴影。而伊朗战争引发的能源危机也意味着以天然气为原料的化肥价格上涨。马歇尔8月在接受RFD-TV采访时表示：“我无法回避柴油价格问题，我会承担相应责任，毫无疑问，霍尔木兹海峡局势对此产生了影响。”
堪萨斯州或许是那些让民主党看到获胜希望，但最终仍会在11月回归共和党的红色州之一。尽管如此，副总统JD·万斯还是在周一特意到访该州，试图为马歇尔助一臂之力。
理想情况下，在对共和党不利的年份里，候选人应该将竞选聚焦于本地议题，宣扬自身优势。例如参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩将密歇根州的罗杰斯和新罕布什尔州参议院候选人约翰·苏努努描述为“秉持常识的解决问题者”。但由于民主党打出特朗普牌，他们很难塑造出自己的鲜明形象。
新罕布什尔州民主党候选人克里斯·帕帕斯上个月指出，其所在州的共和党对手在2008年曾因一位极具争议的共和党总统乔治·W·布什而输掉之前的参议院席位。如今，帕帕斯表示，苏努努正“搭上了另一位不受欢迎的共和党总统的顺风车”。
此外，特朗普的一些政策也让几个关键摇摆州的竞选变得胜负难料。
他重启的对加拿大贸易战冲击了密歇根州、缅因州和俄亥俄州的参议院竞选。这三个州都与跨境贸易深度绑定，且都存在势均力敌的竞选，这些竞选结果将决定参议院的控制权归属。
缅因州资深共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯此前已批评过这场贸易战。但她的民主党对手特洛伊·杰克逊利用现任议员的经典困境施压，哀叹特朗普政府对该州林业、渔业和旅游业造成的影响，并问道：“她做了什么才能让特朗普收手？”
在其他州，共和党人的阻碍并非来自特朗普的政策，而是来自他所支持的人选。他与佐治亚州共和党州长布莱恩·坎普的矛盾——坎普拒绝协助他窃取2020年大选——导致他力推一名“让美国再次伟大”组织的铁杆支持者获得共和党提名。但众议员迈克·柯林斯在民调中落后。而且特朗普可能无意间为民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫提供了平台，让他成为全国知名人物，甚至成为2028年总统竞选的潜在候选人。
特朗普的中期竞选策略让许多共和党人感到困惑。
但他的支持者或许会辩称，他是一位有信念的政治家——在一个被焦点小组调查主导的时代，这是一种受欢迎的转变。他正按照自己所认为的选民授权行事：通过关税拯救美国工业；加强移民执法，即便这会疏远更多温和派选民；在全球范围内确立美国的主导地位。自特朗普再次当选以来，他的白宫给人的印象是，会利用每一刻来改变美国和世界。而且事实也确实如此，除非特朗普的忠实支持者前来为共和党候选人背书，否则无论如何，共和党在中期选举中都几乎没有胜算。
尽管如此，他本可以为 fellow 共和党人减轻负担。
当他四处宣传经济成果——包括超出预期的退税、部分处方药成本削减和股市牛市——时，他还会嘲笑助手们费心为他写的演讲稿他根本不会看。
但有一份来自特朗普的“礼物”或许能安抚共和党候选人：资金。
他价值4亿美元的超级政治行动委员会金库已经开始向处境艰难的共和党候选人提供捐款——尽管一些怀疑论者质疑特朗普愿意拿出多少自有资金。处境艰难的“让美国再次伟大”组织派参议院候选人，如得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿和北卡罗来纳州的迈克尔·沃特利，正迫切需要这一可能挽救竞选的助力。
而特朗普的支出也会用于自保。
他以极强的个人色彩参与2026年中期选举，意味着如果共和党整体失利，就不仅仅是所有总统在中期选举时都会遭遇的政治惨败那么简单。这将是对他的品格、行为和政治运动的控诉。
The one thing Trump won’t give GOP midterm hopefuls: Less Trump
2026-09-15T04:01:29.725Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/15/politics/trump-republican-midterm-chances
Here’s what Republican candidates need as midterm elections draw near:
Gas pump prices that aren’t a gut punch. An easing of record diesel costs currently hammering farmers and hiking food prices. A dip in inflation would be nice — and what about that war supposedly won six months ago finally ending?
Perhaps an unpopular president could, for once, exit the spotlight to allow them to focus disqualifying attention on their local Democratic foes. And Donald Trump might also show a smidgen of empathy to voters alarmed by high grocery prices and apocalyptic warnings about AI.
Here’s what GOP nominees have to deal with instead:
Gasoline prices averaging $4.31 a gallon. (But if your truck guzzles diesel, you’re shelling out $6.20 a gallon — up from about $3.60 when Trump took office in January 2025, according to AAA and government data.) Wholesale inflation ticked up in August, as did the Consumer Price Index. Despite what the White House says, most food prices aren’t down. And a new trade war with Canada threatens yet more taxes on consumers.
Trump can’t put a date on when his deeply unpopular war with Iran will stop. And voters who question his judgment over the Middle East quagmire may be equally spooked by his assurance that their AI fears are a “Hoax” and that all will be fine because the US has a “STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT.”
The gap between a workable political environment for the GOP and the one it is stuck with tells the story of a campaign that has Democrats hoping to win the House and looking unexpectedly competitive in Senate races where Trump won in 2024.
Remarkably, Republicans’ headwinds are largely the result of the president’s choices, hunches, personal fixations and refusal to tune in to voter perceptions that his economic “golden age” is a mirage. If Trump were deliberately picking the path most likely to damage his own party, it couldn’t look much different.
The Trump-everywhere-all-at-once campaign is also giving Democrats a break. The opposition party has blundered through political oblivion since the 2024 election. There’s little sign that it has fixed the many problems with messaging and policy that allowed Trump to regain power. And recent polls show that it’s just about as unpopular as the GOP. Running a campaign all about Trump looks complacent and has so far produced little progress toward a Democratic rebrand.
But it might work anyway.
How Trump hems in GOP candidates
Trump’s ubiquity is having tangible negative effects on Republican candidates even as he argues that polls showing he’s unpopular are wrong.
Michigan GOP Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers is slamming his Democratic foe, Abdul El-Sayed, who is Muslim, as a friend of terrorists and controversial Internet influencer Hassan Piker. Rogers argues El-Sayed is more interested in representing Palestinians than the Wolverine state.
But Trump gives El-Sayed an easy pivot back to the mainstream. He parried questions about Piker on CBS’ “Face the Nation” Sunday by saying, “They want to make this about a streamer in California. I want to make this about affordability in Michigan, and they can’t talk about it because it’s their policies that are driving (prices) up.”
El-Sayed rejected House Speaker Mike Johnson’s claim that progressives were “barbarians inside the gate,” countering: “The barbarian is in the White House.”
Trump’s shadow also looms over Kansas. No one expected GOP Sen. Roger Marshall to face a tight reelection race, but his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton is lumping him in with Trump’s unpopularity. “Courage is when you stand up to your president and your party, and you say, ‘This is hurting people back home,’” Hamilton said at a Saturday campaign debate.
Marshall’s hopes are darkened by diesel prices punishing farmers with higher operating costs. And the Iran war’s energy crisis also means fertilizer — made with natural gas — is more expensive. “I can’t run away from diesel. And I’ll take responsibility from the standpoint that certainly the Strait of Hormuz is impacting this,” Marshall told RFD-TV in August.
Kansas might be one of the those red states that spark Democratic dreams but return home to the GOP in November. Still, Vice President JD Vance saw the need to drop in to the state Monday to try to give Marshall a leg up.
Ideally, in a difficult year for Republicans, candidates would localize races and run on their strengths. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, for instance, described Rogers in Michigan and New Hampshire Senate nominee John Sununu as “common-sense problem solvers.” But they’re having trouble defining themselves thanks to the Democrats’ Trump card.
Democratic New Hampshire nominee Chris Pappas noted last month that his Granite State rival lost a previous Senate seat in 2008 because of a radioactive GOP president, George W. Bush. Now, Pappas said, Sununu is “saddling up with another unpopular Republican president.”
And some of Trump’s policies mean that some key swing state races look like toss-ups.
His reignited trade war with Canada has rocked Senate races in Michigan, Maine and Ohio. All three states are heavily integrated with cross-border trade and all have tight races that could decide who runs the chamber.
Maine’s ultimate GOP survivor, Sen. Susan Collins, has criticized the trade war. But her Democratic foe Troy Jackson is jamming her with a classic incumbent’s curse as he bemoans the president’s impact on the states’ logging, fishing and tourism industries and asks, “What has she done to get Trump to back off?”
In other states, Republicans are hampered not by what Trump has done, but by who he’s chosen. His feud with Georgia GOP Gov. Brian Kemp — who refused to help him steal the 2020 election — led him to push a MAGA favorite to the GOP nomination. But Rep. Mike Collins trails in the polls. And Trump may have inadvertently handed a platform for Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff to emerge as a national figure and potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Trump’s midterm playbook has baffled many Republicans.
But fans might argue he’s a conviction politician — a welcome change in an era dominated by focus groups. He’s acting on what he believes is a mandate to impose tariffs to rescue US industry; to ramp up immigration enforcement even if it alienates more moderate voters; and to impose dominance on the world. Ever since Trump returned to for a second term, his White House has given the impression that it will use every moment to change America and the world. And it’s also true that unless Trump loyalists show up to back GOP nominees, the party has little chance in the midterms in any case.
Still, he could make life easier for his fellow Republicans.
When he’s hit the road to promote economic wins — including higher-than-expected tax refunds, cuts to some prescription drug costs and a stock market bull run — he mocks his aides for bothering to write the script he ignores.
But there’s one gift from Trump that may placate GOP candidates: cash.
His $400 million super PAC war chest is starting to dole out contributions to vulnerable Republicans — even if some skeptics wonder how much of his haul Trump is willing to part with. Troubled MAGA Senate candidates like Ken Paxton in Texas and Michael Whatley in North Carolina are desperate for a potentially lifesaving boost.
And Trump would also be spending to shield himself.
His intensely personal approach to the 2026 elections means an overall GOP loss would go beyond the bloody political nose all presidents expect from midterms. It would be an indictment of his character, conduct and political movement.
